Voter-Registration

Voter Register – (Provisional) 2012

Notes:

  1. source http://www.iebc.or.ke/
  2. provisional final tally of registered voters by constituency

52 comments on “Voter Register – (Provisional) 2012

  1. http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000078127&pageNo=2&story_title=Kenya-Hassan-assures-on-poll-integrity

    the booths are fairly simple to construct (have safety concerns on if that hood can topple and hurt someone)

    IEBC is not serious about 3 booths. by their own statistics, some poll centers have as many as 6000 registered voters

    assume that each voter requires minimum of 5 minutes but can take up to 10 minutes

    i.e each booth serves 12 or 6 persons per hour per booth some of these will be inevitable like in nyamira county which has 16 governor aspirants. with a large number to choose from, voters will require more time in some polling centers

    and as akinyi observed elsewhere 144 persons per booth 6AM to 6PM or 72 persons per booth on the lower side

    therefore a polling center with 500 registered voters requires minimum of 4 but recommend 8 booths

    hence for 1000 registered voters then you need minimum 8 booths assuming 5 minutes per person or 16 booths for slow voting at 10 minutes per person
    etc

  2. ==
    The IEBC boss said the final voter register will be published on or before Monday next week in accordance to the law adding that all political parties will receive soft copies of the final register
    ==
    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000077165&story_title=Kenya-IEBC:-20,000-voters-registered-twice

    under ordinary conditions in the future, i wouldn’t pay much attention to this

    but this first general election is unique in many ways

    - its the first time a revolutionary process is being used (as as a kenya goes) involving a lot of ICT products and services

    - most of this has not been tested/perfected against malfunction, sabotage or manipulation

    - the stakes are super high particularly for the jubilee coalition

    - there already are signs that IEBC inner offices are compromised

    so i ask (i have not had a chance to look at the law yet)

    is it necessary to provide the political parties with raw data and what measures are there to ensure that they cannot use this data to tamper with voting

    given that we have seen political parties fraudulently register party members, how can they be given this kind of data

    there are more questions but at this point in time am a little puzzled by what the IEBC is doing here.

    I think the political parties and anybody else has/have a right to inspect the registers. but am not sure about providing soft copies to anyone. this is a breach of privacy for the registered voter and a potential risk. maybe just me being paranoid but given that there has been no party discipline, no attempt to discipline electoral malpractice by the IEBC, this is like leaving the barn door open with sheep inside and three hungry wolves outside with the sign on the door – we also do take away and outside catering

    anyway lets hear views from you other folk

    • well well

      http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/PS-accuses-candidates-of-hacking-registrars-database/-/1631868/1692942/-/1y9rn1z/-/index.html

      ==
      “The Registrar for Political Parties database was compromised and that data is with several politicians and they are using it to send messages to solicit for votes,” said Dr Ndemo during the weekly Media Monitoring Committee briefing in Nairobi.

      “I want to make it clear here that it is not the government that would sue. The individuals can sue for violation of their privacy because you need to prove where you got their numbers from, ” he added.

      Dr Ndemo said his office has been receiving complaints from members of the public who have been receiving unsolicited text messages from politicians. This is in breach of the Kenya Communications Act.

      Dr Ndemo called on the Registrar’s office to be more careful and to protect the data they get from the public.
      ==

      and yet the IEBC still want to give political parties the softcopy of the database

      come-on guys, lets have some consistency

      • This is ridiculous from PS Ndemo! Why is he trying to pass the buck to the poor mostly rural folks who are not even aware of what is going on!

        The government has the machinery to track down the fraudsters and haul them to court to explain how they got their hands on voters’ data. It is the responsibility of the government to protect the privacy of her citizens!

        What is wrong with PS Ndemo lately? Every time he opens his mouth of late only rubbish seems to come out of it. Whatever happened to the intellectual Ndemo? Of late, he is behaving and sounding just like our demented politicians. In fact he sounds more like Waititu, Sonko, Midiwo, Kabogo and the like.

        Jeez, the less I hear from him the better. He should stop ranting and raving all over the place.


        “I want to make it clear here that it is not the government that would sue. The individuals can sue for violation of their privacy because you need to prove where you got their numbers from, ” he added.

    • `
      The IEBC register is the best evidence against what Jubilee propagandists (led by the statistics-challenged Mutahi Ngunyi) have been peddling as “tyranny of numbers”. Kenya’s voting population is way bigger than the Kikuyu and Kalenjin votes – this is about to proved this in less than a month. To propagandists like Ngunyi, you may end up getting more than what you ask for — a reverse tyranny of numbers. Watch this space!

  3. We have to focus very careful in our politics, jubilee its belong to al of us, and we canot alow politician to divide us.

  4. as much we try 2 convince others about why nairobi n central, read kiambu here,kikuyu were apathetic about voting but with uhuru n wat happened 2 them in 07 they knew wat n how other tribes n moreso the luo nyanza looks down on them,its nothing about kiambu being cosmopolitan coz if so do nyeri,muranga,kirinyaga n nyandarua also qualify 2 b cosmopolitans?yet the got 95pc.

  5. Einstein,

    I think we need to examine the facts before we make any rash decisions on the success or otherwise of the just concluded voter registration exercise. The targets that were set for Nyanza may have been a bit off. In the past elections were traditionally held at the end of the year, so, most of the people who were registered in Nyanza would be home for the Christmas festivities and vote at the same time. Under such circumstances it was prudent to register up country.

    The next elections will be right in the middle of the year. So, some of the people who would traditionally register up country have registered in the urban centers and that is the reason why Nairobi overshot its target. The electorate that Uhuru is targeting has different factors going for it. So, in a county like Kiambu, you will find the population becoming more & more cosmopolitan. There are plenty of places that are assumed to be in Nairobi but are actually in Kiambu county.

    As for Kwale county, it seems like this “Pwani si Kenya” malarkey is catching on.

    • Einstein et al,

      Read Siguda’s apt response explaining huge overshoots in NAIROBI {122%} (many folk who traditionally register upcountry got it in Nairobi this time due to calendar restrictions) & KIAMBU {113%} (which has become more cosmopolitan due to anticipated easy commute (Thika Hwy) & cheaper rent).

      It looks decent enough as far as CORD should be concerned.

      Here we go:

      FINAL IEBC VOTER REGISTRATION NUMBERS: (December 20th, 2012)

      Regional Analysis Based on Former Provinces:

      COAST PROVINCE – *1,164, 083* out of projected 1,550,257 (75%)
      NORTH EASTERN – *347,457* out of projected 1,077,273 (32%)
      CENTRAL PROVINCE – *2,190,477* out of projected 2,043,701 (107%)
      .
      WESTERN PROVINCE – *1,434,987* out of projected 2,020,640 (71%)
      NAIROBI PROVINCE – *1,778,903* out of projected 1,463,105 (122%)
      .
      EASTERN PROVINCE
      Ukambani Region – *1,069,529* out of projected 1,396,649 (77%)
      Meru/Embu/Tharaka/Nithi – *866,329* out of projected 1,043,280 (83%)
      Marsabit/Isiolo – *157,025* out of projected 202,545 (77%)
      .
      NYANZA PROVINCE
      Upper/Luo Nyanza – *1,320,647* out of projected 1,721,291 (77%)
      Lower/Kisii Nyanza – *634,109* out of projected 816,097 (77%)
      .
      RIFT VALLEY PROVINCE
      Turkana – *120,345* out of projected 398,788 (30%)
      Samburu – *56,662* out of projected 104,404 (54%)
      Pokot – *107,894* out of projected 239,016 (45%)
      .
      Trans Nzoia – *231,352* out of projected 381,704 (61%)
      . U/Gishu/ Elgeyo-Marakwet/
      Nandi/Baringo/Kericho/Bomet – *1,423,315* out of projected 1,890,544 (75%)
      .
      Narok/Kajiado – *568,139* out of projected 717,122 (79%)
      .
      Nakuru/Laikipia – *866,146* out of projected 933,588 (93%)
      .
      NATIONAL TOTAL 14,337,399 out of projected 18,000,004 (80%)

    • I think we should also remember that there is a direct and residual population from the PEV related IDPs many of whom may have decided to vote in safer areas with the bulk of these being resident in former Central province.

  6. Tnk, Job and others,

    Could you please be kind and give us the final registration stats! I cannot still believe that Nyanza, of all the places, after the dismal performance at the initial stages is really up there!!

    Central, Nyanza lead the pack as vote listing ends

    Counties perceived to be strongholds of Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta have recorded the highest number of registered voters, according to latest figures by the national elections agency.

    Nearly all potential voters targeted for the registration that ended yesterday had been enlisted by the weekend in central Kenya, seen as a key voting bloc of Mr Kenyatta who is seeking a presidential nomination through the Jubilee Coalition.

    A total of 1.97 million eligible voters had registered by Sunday, according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission’s records.

    The figure, representing 97 per cent of all targeted 2 million voters, could rise following the additional registration figures over the last two days.

    Central is running close to cosmopolitan Nairobi County which is leading in registration, with the number of those enlisted surpassing the 100 per cent mark.

    Nairobi has registered 1.5 million people.

    The registration figures in Central are 27 percentage points higher than the second best region, Nyanza where 1.77 million people had been registered by the weekend.

    In the ODM stronghold, the estimated voting population is 2.5 million.

    In Nyanza, Kisumu County had by Sunday recorded the highest number of registered voters at 79 per cent followed by Siaya (74), Homa Bay (69) and Migori (62).

    In Central, Kiambu recorded a 102 per cent vote listing rate followed by Nyeri (99 per cent), while Murang’a and Kirinyaga have 95 per cent each.

    From the latest data, there is an indication that the registration data could fall nearly at the same level as the 2007 roll that stood at 14.3 million.

    According to the Independent Commission of Inquiry into the last General Election, the number of registered voters in 2007 represented 71 per cent of the 19.8 million people aged over 18.

    Of that, the commission pointed out that the voter register had a low and biased coverage.

    “Women are significantly under-registered,” said the report after it was established females represented only 47.1 per cent of the voter register.

    Also under-registered were the young people aged between 18 and 30 years whose proportion of the registered voters was 32.1 per cent.

    The commission also noted that the figures of the 2007 roll included some of 1.2 million people who had died.

    On Tuesday, thousands of Kenyans flocked centres across the country in a last-minute rush to register.

    Heavy rains that pounded Nairobi and parts of the Mt Kenya region all day did not deter the voters.

    Kenyans living in neighboring Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi also continued registering.

    Registration in the EAC countries, which started on Friday, ends on Christmas day.

    In Tanzania, registration is taking place in Dar es Salaam and Arusha while in Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi, booths have been stationed at missions in Kampala, Kigali and Bujumbura respectively.

    At the Coast province, IEBC chairman Isaack Hassan made impromptu visits to areas with high voter apathy and those regarded as Mombasa Republican Council bases in Kwale and Mombasa counties to urge residents to register.

    Mr Hassan, accompanied by South Coast IEBC regional coordinator Amina Soud visited centres in Msambweni, Matuga and Likoni constituencies.

    In Nakuru town, some bar owners demanded that patrons produce their voters cards before being served.

    In Meru town, a heavy downpour interrupted registration for more than four hours but it did not dampen the spirits of thousands of residents who had turned up to beat the deadline.

    In Nyeri county, more than 300 Internally Displaced Persons who had vowed not to register did so after the government promised to meet their demands.

    The Ministry of Special Programmes promised to resettle them once they agree to collect their Identity Cards which they had surrendered to the government two weeks ago.

    A huge turnout was also witnessed in Uasin Gishu county.

    Central primary school and the M.V Patel Memorial Hall in Eldoret town witnessed long queues as residents rushed to beat the deadline.

    IEBC North Rift regional coordinator Solomon Mudanya said that the turnout was “promising but not good enough.”

    “A few days ago the voter registration was at 49 percent but by yesterday we were at 58 per cent,” said Mr Mudanya.

    Huge turnout was also witnessed in Baringo county.

    In Kisumu, an IEBC clerk at the Jomo Kenyatta Sports Ground, Ms Becky Mwalo, said there had been a sudden rise in the number of people registering since Monday.

    Huge turnouts were also witnessed in Busia and Nyamira counties.

    Meanwhile, High Court judge Isaac Lenaola threw out a case that had sought to compel IEBC to extend the registration period to enable prisoners to take part.

    Justice Lenaola declined to grant the prayers sought by Kituo Cha Sheria saying that the court must first hear IEBC before making a decision.

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Central-and-Nyanza-top-vote-register/-/1064/1647360/-/h5q5so/-/index.html

    • Thanks Job,
      I have been crunching the numbers which I will soon post in the appropriate thread. I cannot see how Jubilee can win this elections. The more I crunch the more I see CORD beating Jubilee in the first round. The Mudavadi debacle has made things worse. If CORD comes out of the Saturday rally slotted for Uhuru park smelling like roses then jubilee is done for.

      Problem with Jubilee people is that they are stacking up votes according to tribe, which simply means that all Luo votes goes to Raila and all Kikuyu and Kalenjin goes to Uhuru. These people are going to get the surprise of the life. They have another thing coming. Tribal matrix will not work this time around. You can bank that.

      Kenyans, especially business people, are not ready to sacrifice their country and livelihood for the sake of two liars, soon to be ICC fugitives, devil worshipers. No way. Uhuru made the biggest mistake of his life by duping Mudavadi in broad daylight. But again, if you possessed by demons then that’s the way you behave.

      I urge everybody to watch this space. Its going to be shock and disbelief.

  7. have just seen the registration as of Dec 16 and it stands at 12.3m

    i think the register will close at about 14m

    some very interesting figures are beginning to surface. anyone with the figures already cleaned up can post otherwise will post in about an hour

    • CRUNCHING THE LATEST (December 16th, 2012) IEBC VOTER REGISTRATION NUMBERS:

      Regional Analysis Based on Former Provinces:

      COAST PROVINCE – *994, 070* out of projected 1,550,257 (64%)
      NORTH EASTERN – *319,550* out of projected 1,077,273 (30%)
      CENTRAL PROVINCE – *1,976,063* out of projected 2,043,701 (97%)
      .
      WESTERN PROVINCE – *1,283,533* out of projected 2,020,640 (64%)
      NAIROBI PROVINCE – *1,548,217* out of projected 1,463,105 (106%)
      .
      EASTERN PROVINCE
      Ukambani Region – *942,750* out of projected 1,396,649 (67%)
      Meru/Embu/Tharaka/Nithi – *751,223* out of projected 1,043,280 (72%)
      Marsabit/Isiolo – *139,002* out of projected 202,545 (69%)
      .
      NYANZA PROVINCE
      Upper/Luo Nyanza – *1,223,827* out of projected 1,721,291 (71%)
      Lower/Kisii Nyanza – *554,992* out of projected 816,097 (68%)
      .
      RIFT VALLEY PROVINCE
      Turkana – *117,902* out of projected 398,788 (27%)
      Samburu – *53,603* out of projected 104,404 (51%)
      Pokot – *95,805* out of projected 239,016 (40%)
      .
      Trans Nzoia – *197,441* out of projected 381,704 (52%)
      . U/Gishu/ Elgeyo-Marakwet/
      Nandi/Baringo/Kericho/Bomet – *1,244,968* out of projected 1,890,544 (66%)
      .
      Narok/Kajiado – *537,384* out of projected 717,122 (75%)
      .
      Nakuru/Laikipia – *722,285* out of projected 933,588 (83%)
      .
      NATIONAL TOTAL 12,724,100 out of projected 18,000,004 (71%)

      Any more doubt as to why Uhuru Kenyatta is reluctant to hand G-7-turned-Jubilee coalition on a silver platter to Mudavadi? The numbers speak for themselves. Wanyokwa/Kamwana has literally dragged every potential voter, including 100 year old centenarians, to register while Western is in its usual voter-apathetic form.

      With a national average of 71%, it is clear only one region in the country is registering above it. There is absolutely no reason why there shouldn’t be continuous voter registration in Kenya; like happened in the recently concluded US elections where in some states, folks could even register on the same day of voting. This should be part of next parliament’s agenda – expanding voting rights to all citizens.

      It makes no sense to give the same brief registration period (30 days) applicable to all areas/people; small densely populated areas with superior infrastructure; vast arid areas where registration centers are 200 kms away; marginalized and insecurity-prone areas…etc. We can’t have such one-jacket-fits-all approach to complex issues like civic rights. It’s time to expand the voting role to ALL Kenyans.

      Looking back at the braggadocios that once formed the amorphous G-7, isn’t it amazing how they’ve been scuttled by an implosion we foresaw back during the days of the prayer rallies? Eugene out…Kalonzo, Machage, and Omingo Magara out-and-into CORD…and the circus continues. One final act is coming this week. A massive wave could be walking out of Jubilee in a matter of days – stay tuned. Mtaka yote hukosa yote! What more is new?

      • Job,

        While Raila and CORD just went bla bla bla, Uhuru actually managed to get his folks to register!!

        What a let down by ODM and CORD!! I hope they (ODM and CORD) make it tomorrow through a mad last minute rush!! Jeeez!

      • Einstein,

        You’re right. I can only excuse the arid, hardship-prone and marginalized areas…or places where insecurity &/or ongoing security operations suppressed the registration. Turkana & Northern Kenya, NEP, and parts of Coast fall in that category.

        The rest is FAILED LEADERSHIP when it matters. Local leaders who failed to mobilize their constituents to register should not even think about making any excuses. If you can’t successfully lead your grassroots in any exercise, you do not deserve leadership.

        Even in Nyanza there were places that registered dismal numbers. Places like Gem (69%), Kisumu East (70%), Muhoroni (70%), Kasipul Kabondo (66%), Karachuonyo (69%), Rangwe (68%), Mbita (67%), Suba (63%), Suna West (66%), and Nyatike (66%) are all languishing below the 71% national average. I’ve heard some of their leaders already throwing excuses ati…mara IDs mara what…who the heck is in charge of issuing those IDs. I can’t wait for the exit of certain incompetent joy-riders in ODM. Its time for good riddance!

  8. People today thronged the DCs office in Kisumu to collect their IDs. The officials were unable to cope. This simply means that thousands are going to be left out of the voting process, By the way, the IDs arrived from Nairobi today hence the problem. This is one of those things that makes me go…what the heck?

    • This kind of news is disturbing, considering that this is Kajwang’s ministry and fingers will definitely point at him. He cannot start a blame game. He should have ensured this last minute rush was avoided or that the public and IEBC is fully informed

  9. I like what the business community in Kitui and Mwingi are doing. Other parts of the nation should follow suit if we are to avoid a disaster!

    Voters’ list hits 9.1m as Kiambu leads pack

    Voter registration has reached 9.1 million with the electoral commission urging voters to take advantage of Wednesday’s public holiday and weekends to enlist for next year’s poll.

    The figures fall short of the targeted 18 million voters by 8.9 million which has prompted the intervention of President Kibaki, Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka urging voters to register in large numbers.

    Registration centres remained open as Kenya marked Jamhuri Day on Wednesday, with the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission (IEBC) giving thumbs up to Kiambu County whose turn-out had hit 74 per cent as per December 9.

    “Have you registered? Registration ends on December 18, 2012. Registration centres remained open countrywide on Jamhuri Day,” IEBC said in an advertisement.

    Other leading counties that IEBC hailed their registration included Lamu at 71 per cent, Nairobi (68), Murang’a (67) and Nyeri (66).

    Counties which are doing badly in registration are Kwale at 30 per cent, Turkana and Garissa (27), Wajir (25) and lastly Mandera at 16 per cent.

    In Kiambu County, 560,177 people had registered out of a possible 756,774 voters. Lamu had registered 33,831 out of the targeted 47,338.

    Meanwhile, in Kitui and Mwingi towns, shopkeepers, restaurants and bar operators have joined hands in an ambitious initiative to mobilise residents to register as voters.

    For instance, in some restaurants one may not be served your favourite drink or meal unless you show proof of having registered as a voter.

    According to Kimanzi Musili, the Kenya National Chamber of Commerce and Industry Kitui branch secretary, customers are encouraged to take the voter registration seriously.

    “We are simply taking responsibility as the business community to supplement civic education efforts by IEBC to achieve 100 per cent voter listing” said Mr Musili on the sidelines of Jamhuri celebrations at Kitui Municipal Stadium.

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Voters-list-hits-9-1m-as-Kiambu-leads-pack/-/1064/1642770/-/7j1iwnz/-/index.html

    • CRUNCHING THE LATEST (December 12th, 2012) IEBC VOTER REGISTRATION NUMBERS:

      Regional Analysis Based on Former Provinces:

      COAST PROVINCE – 664, 781 (42%)

      NORTH EASTERN – 235, 775 (21%)

      CENTRAL PROVINCE – 1,441, 012 (67%)

      WESTERN PROVINCE – 966, 103 (48%)

      NAIROBI PROVINCE – 1,005, 683 (68%)

      EASTERN PROVINCE
      Ukambani Region – 686,351 (48%)
      Meru/Embu/Tharaka/Nithi – 553,036 (52%)
      Marsabit/Isiolo – 97,331 (47%)

      NYANZA PROVINCE
      Upper/Luo Nyanza – 1,005,683 (57%)
      Lower/Kisii Nyanza – 380, 254 (46%)

      RIFT VALLEY PROVINCE
      Turkana – 107,012 (27%)
      Samburu – 44,378 (42%)
      Pokot/U/Gishu/ Elgeyo-Marakwet/
      Nandi/Baringo/Kericho/Bomet – 1,020,405 (49%)
      Nakuru/Laikipia – 549, 913 (58%)
      Narok/Kajiado – 386, 438 (53%)

      • THE PARADOX OF NAKURU COUNTY POST DEVOLUTION

        TNA controls almost 75% URP 20% as revealed by
        IEBC data below showing TOTAL eligible voters:

        NAKURU COUNTY (Total Eligible voters)

        Molo (TNA) – 58, 013 (so far registered = 59%)
        Njoro (TNA) – 86,181 (58%)
        Naivasha (TNA) – 104,494 (66%)
        Gilgil (TNA) – 70,910 (55%)
        Subukia (TNA) – 44,046 (58%)
        Bahati (TNA) – 67,257 (61%)
        Rongai (soon {2013} TNA) – 60, 667 (57%)
        Kuresoi North (URP) – 57,832 (53%)
        Kuresoi South (URP) – 53,816 (49%)
        Nakuru Town West – 70, 982 (60%)
        Nakuru Town East – 73, 271 (73%)

        TOTAL – 747, 469

        All data is showing this is now TNA County! What a Jubilee it has been. URP dominates only the 2 Kuresoi constituencies, and about ½ of Rongai – which has already turned TNA (2013 elections will show) thanks to a politicized IDP relocation program by the Special Program Ministry.

        Scattered URP presence in Bahati, Molo, Njoro and Subukia cannot swamp TNA’s overwhelming domination.

        TNA is likely to win literally all major seats in this county – Governor, Senator, and majority of County Rep and MP seats. This is now TNA county post-Katiba. This is what Kazi ya Jubilee has accomplished.

      • wow Job spot on with the analysis apparently someone else also sees the ethnic math

        http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000072803&pageNo=1&story_title=Kenya-Ethnic,-party-cards-seen-to-determine-Nakuru%E2%80%99s-first-CEO

        this is actually what ruto is doing, i.e selling off RV to TNA piece-meal in order to save his own skin

        i fear this is not the great leader but a very selfish man who will readily sell his family.

        if RV cannot exorcise their land grievances, its only a matter of time and we will be back to the usual conflicts

  10. IEBC blamed for low voter registration

    The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is now on the spot for failing Kenyans on voter registration.

    The Commission is now being asked to take responsibility for not planning early enough for the voter listing exercise that has threatened to lock out many Kenyans.

    And the blame has come from, Dr Ekuru Aukot, who chaired the IEBC selection panel that proposed the names of the persons best suited to execute the mandate of the election body.

    Speaking on Thursday, Aukot said he is “really disappointed” in the team that his panel selected to steer forward and execute the mandate of the election body.

    He said Article 88 under Chapter seven of the constitution says the process should be continuous and blamed the IEBC for not planning early enough for the exercise.

    He ruled out procurement of the BVR kits as an excuse for the delayed start of voter registration noting that the Commission should have begun the process early enough.

    When we are talking about the quality of elections then we are also talking of the quality of logistics. The risk we have now is the uncertainty of the voters roll we are being given right now,” he said.

    “All these things accumulatively will they roll give us a qualitative election? I am disappointed because things could have been done in a very good time with proper planning,” he added.

    Aukot was speaking on the sidelines of a Teachers Service Commission forum in Mombasa where he took the 47 County Directors through the constitution and the relevant clauses to their services.

    The concern comes a few days after IEBC warned Kenyans who have not registered that once the deadline expires there would be no extension.

    The commission further dismissed politicians who have been agitating for an extension.

    IEBC Chairman Isaack Hassan maintained that there was no threshold required by law for the country to go to the polls, arguing that it is only in a referendum where 60 per cent of eligible voters must be on the roll.

    IEBC recently announced that 8.6 million Kenyans had registered as voters.

    The Isaack Hassan-led commission worried that they would not met their target of registering 18 million Kenyans as voters.

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000072776&story_title=Kenya-IEBC-blamed-for-low-voter-registration

  11. voter apathy is typically due to a variety of factors basically broken down to two blocks a) fear or b) despair
    fear can be further subdivided
    i) insecurity – fear of criminal gangs and activities
    ii) fear of security operations
    iii) fear generated by malicious propaganda, myths, disinformation etc e.g
    http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-98964/bvr-cancer-claims-untrue-kangema-mp-tells-voters
    iv) fear of criminal, societal, security or other reprisals

    despair/disillusionment is typically due to
    i) perceived lack of clear premium choice among candidates
    ii) mistrust in system to be fair
    iii) too little difference perceived in alternate choices
    iv) belief that their preferred choice does not stand a chance
    v) belief that the election will not alter their status in society
    besides these which can be said to be self driven, other reasons are external and based on logistics, such as too engaged in daily toils/labor or otherwise simply unable to get to a designated station without incurring severe discomfort.

    am sure there are many other reasons, but we should all try to reach out and make sure that as many people as possible register to vote

    let them know that even if they do not want to vote, they can and still should register to vote, and keep the card. its much easier to decide to vote or not when you have a card, but you have no choice if you do not get a card.

    • tnk,
      All the above are true but I hate the way the IEBC has just thrown up its hands and given up.

      This is the time to show that they have ideas that can help register people not to ask rhetorical questions.

      Why not go village to village in places with insecurity such as NEP?
      Why not ask the government to give a one day holiday for voter registration?
      This is a serious matter that needs to be addressed.

      My guess is that as long as the so called numbers seem to be working in favor of the Kibaki axis no such thing will happen. They will stone wall any attempt at expanding the voter registration exercise. But they might be in for a major surprise by being played by those very numbers.

      By the way, why has the IEBC looked down its site. Don’t they want us to see the numbers? Don’t tell me that they are doing data cleaning. That will be the beginning of rigging.

    • TNK and All
      Curiously, I have noticed that all “Kalenjin” counties(Ruto’s support base) are registering dismal performance in terms of registration. This should be an issue at Jubilee’s discussions considering that TNA’s support areas are nearing 70-80 percentage registration levels.. There is someth9ing going on in RV and Ruto has neither an idea about it nor any control.

      • Nalinali,
        You are right.
        The people seem to saying that they would rather not vote than vote for Uhuru Kenyatta for president. The bad blood cannot be wished away with simple rhetoric. Real work needs to be done. CORD is the winner in all this given that Mudavadi is headed to his political grave next Tuesday.

      • Declare public holiday to allow voter registration, MPs urge Kibaki

        MPs allied to the Jubilee Coalition –The National Alliance, United Republican Party and United Democratic Front—have asked President Kibaki to declare a public holiday to allow Kenyans register as voters.

        Adan Duale (Dujis), Charles Keter (Belgut), Benjamin Washiali (Mumias), Rachel Shebesh (nominated), Manyala Keya (Lurambi) and Abdikadir Mohammed (Mandera Central) said on Tuesday such a day should be set aside before the expiry of the 30-day deadline that the electoral commission has set aside for voter registration.

        “That day Kenyans will not go to work and all of them will be expected to flock to the registration centres and register as voters. They must register,” said Mr Duale during a news conference in Parliament buildings.

        The MPs blamed the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission for what they said was a shortage of the biometric voter-registration kits in their constituencies. The IEBC, the MPs said, had gazetted 25,000 registration centres but only provided 15,000 kits.

        “IEBC wants to tell the world that the problem is voter apathy, yet this is their problem. It is all about logistics. In my constituency, from one centre to another the distance is about 50 kilometres. Yet the IEBC has provided just one BVR kit,” said Mr Duale.

        Extend deadline

        He said the IEBC will have no option but to extend the deadline, if all Kenyans were to register.

        “In the past elections, voters have had more than one time to register. The IEBC cannot tell us that it will be 30 days and no more. They must extend the deadline. When they come to Parliament, they’re always shifting goalposts, they can’t even follow their own timelines,” said Mr Duale.

        Though the MPs appear to be quite late in their appeal to the public for voters to be registered –there are just seven days left to the expiry of the deadline– they said that they have been rallying people in the villages, and in the constituencies, to register, and that this time round, they had opted to do it on a national platform.

        “We’re here speaking on behalf of the Jubilee Coalition. When you see us, you see Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta, (his counterpart) Musalia Mudavadi, and (Eldoret North MP) William Ruto,” said Mr Duale, asserting that his utterances were sanctioned by the three at the helm of TNA, UDF and URP respectively.

        Mr Keter urged the IEBC to consider the population of constituencies even as it distributed the BVR kits. The issue of how university students, who are still in session will register as voters, is also one of the things that the MPs want the IEBC to address.

        In the House, MPs managed to get the assistant minister of Justice, William Cheptumo, to summon the IEBC to come and address the lawmakers at Parliament buildings at a Speaker’s kamukunji (an informal meeting).

        They scheduled the meeting for Thursday subject to an approval from the Speaker’s office.

        http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/-/1064/1641670/-/ah6eot/-/index.html

      • The problem with some of these clowns is that they want to politicize the voter registration problem as a TNA/URP yada yada. We want as many Kenyans as possible to register. Loud mouths like Duale should be camped in Dujis trying to get their constituents to register. At the rate things are going a place like NEP will have of very little political significance when they have whole counties with less votes than many constituencies or locations in the country. Coast is in bad shape too.

        Then we have Isaack Hassan the IEBC chair who talks first and thinks later. He said it looks like they can only get 12 million voters registered. When the pressure came he now says they are still targeting 18 million. He then rules out any extension claiming there is no constitutional requirement as to what percentage of voters should be registered. He say whatever number they have by Dec 18, 2012 that is it. What Hassan doesn’t want to tell Kenyans is that if they extend the voter registration they have to negotiate that with the Canadian supplier of the BVR kits and pay some money. Being the greedy chap that is he won’t want to spend any more money.

        Hassan then makes very opionionated statements declaring that many voters in places affected by PEV have decided not to register and they wouldn’t do so, meaning there is no need to extend the time. Hassan also claims that voters in urban centres are not registering for fear of being victimised if they vote in those places. Where did he get the facts about all these? It is his opinion and he should not mistate them as facts. Urban areas are doing very fine except Mombasa.

        I think after the kamukunji meeting tommorrow between M.Ps and the IEBC the deadline should be extended to the new year and registration be done throughout the holidays and pay the clerks money to compensate for working during statutory holidays.

        We have also suggested that party leaders should tell all aspirants of all posts that during party nomination votes party members will be required to provide proof of party membership as well as proof of being a registered voter. Being nominated by people who can’t vote in the real election is of no help to anybody. Put the heat on all aspirants and they can leave the bars for a few hours a day to go help register voters

      • Thanks Adongo for repeating this! I’m really pissed off with the ODM for taking things for granted even after this very board offered them viable solutions to counter the problem!

        Is the ODM secretariat even listening?

        I’m especially and in particular tired of these no gooders at the ODM secretariat!

        Wake up you people at the ODM secretariat!!

        Phil, we need your help here urgently!

    • Per Dec 8th, 2012:

      1) LAMU 73%
      2) KIAMBU 69%
      3) NAIROBI 68%
      4) MURANGA 67%
      5) NYERI 66%
      6) KIRINYAGA 66%
      7) KAJIADO 63%
      8) NYANDARUA 62%
      9) KISUMU 61%
      10) SIAYA 60%
      11) NAKURU 60%
      12) THARAKA 58%
      13) HOMABAY 54%
      14) EMBU 53%
      15) LAIKIPIA 54%

      Few trajectories so far:

      1) Tremendous registration in former Central (Meru lagging behind in 40s)
      2) Decent numbers in former Nyanza
      3) Unusually low registration in the former Rift Valley ( e.g Uasin Gishu 34%; Elgeyo Marakwet 40%)
      4) Terribly low numbers in marginalized/insecurity prone regions
      5) Will scrutinize IEBC’s distribution pattern of the 15,000 BVR kits

      unedited

      • Job,
        Truth be told those percentages mean little. Look at the actual count. Thats where the battle is. Eg Lamu has 72% registration with less than 40k votes

      • Unless people get more creative, we may not see much difference in the next seven days. Let’s face it, somebody did a much better job getting voters to register in places where he enjoys high levels of support.

        Although voter registration campaigns may not be an effective way to use scarce resources, this is the time to keep ‘the volunteers’ busy. Raila’s campaign is flush with ‘volunteers’ – last i heard there were over 100 lobby groups and still counting. let them use door-to-door campaigns, go to local functions, markets, churches etc. There’s also ODM mashinani recently launched in all the 47 counties, how effective have they been?

        unless there are laws against offering rewards, after a person registers, a party can offer cheap pens, party paraphanelia, soda (the aspirants eyeing the various local posts can take care of this item ) etc.
        :) Even the Red Cross knows that human beings need a little motivation sometimes- do they still offer a soda after one donates blood?

        On a more serious note, let us all do whatever we can to get people to register as voters.

      • akinyi

        Not only that, how about just transporting people to go register. My folks in Bondo are registering chap chap and by week’s end the figure would be approaching upper 70% or more. But there are still tons of people who could be made to register by merely going from home to home with boda bodas ready to take them to the registration places. In a place like Bondo town it is pretty easy but it is more difficult for folks in the villages.

        We have been preaching a well thought out ground game to these people for eternity and they don’t listen. The lobby groups are for getting money and parting leaders in the back. Most of those folks wouldn’t even step in the mud in the villages. They spend their time in hotels.

        Leaders are now getting desperate and thinking yelling at Kenyans from their microphones would make them go and register. Nonsense. Go work on the ground or forget it. A place like NEP is lost and all those politicians lying to Ruto and Raila that they will deliver NEP vote will deliver nothing of any significance. Coast is on the verge of being lost and yet ODM leaders can mobilize hundreds of thousands to attend rallies and paint Mombasa orange.

        This election is coming down to Nyanza, Central, Western, Rift Valley and Nairobi and a bit of Eastern. Coast at about 650,000 is not too bad but just way to behind in its potential.

        Right now it is down to kazi ya mkono. What makes me mad is we have talked to these people for months, in fact starting with mobilizing people to get I.Ds.

        With about 3 million diaspora votes cut off and may be close to 10 million (including those with no IDs) in Kenya unable and or unwilling to register, half the voting population of Kenyans will not participate in this election. That is a tragedy but it is what it is. Kenyan politicians will eventually learn what political ground game means. They see Obama win and they think it is because he can make great speeches. That is not even half the story. That guy has brought a new meaning to ground game in American politics. That is why he has that confident smile even when under fire. He knows what counts in elections and he knows he can bring it to the table when it counts.

        Essentially I still think the voter registration should be extended to the new year but I doubt that would make any difference in a place like Wajir county. But it could help many places including the coast and Uasin Gishu with 34% voter registration. Everybody has a stake on this so all politicians shoudl come on board.

      • Job

        the population pyramid is a contributing factor to these statistics, with a larger chunk of under 20 in uasin gishu etc. the IEBC projections do not fully reflect this reality

  12. Coast leaders worried about voter apathy

    Voter apathy and low turnout at registration centres in the Coast region is causing aspirants for elective seats sleepless nights.

    President Kibaki, Prime Minister Raila Odinga and local leaders are worried that low voter turnout may have an adverse effect on the region’s bargaining power.

    Former Bahari MP Joe Khamis said if the region registers fewer voters, its leadership will lack the clout to negotiate deals.

    Mr Khamis, the author of The Politics of Betrayal, said: “Just look at the faces involved in coalition talks; do you see any prominent one from the region at the top?”

    He noted that the Mombasa Republican Council’s pronouncements against the electoral process have had an adverse effect on the registration drive, especially in the rural areas.

    MRC influence

    “Let’s not bury our heads in the sand. Let us tackle the MRC influence because it has affected the registration process massively. We must do something before the expiry date,” he said, adding that he had challenged local administrators to use barazas and text messages to reach more people.

    Local leaders addressing the ODM rally at Tononoka last weekend expressed concern that the low voter turnout could affect the party’s performance in the elections.

    Ramadhan Kajembe (Changamwe), Hassan Joho (Kisauni), Omar Zonga (Msambweni) and Gideon Mung’aro (Malindi) challenged the region’s residents to register in large numbers so their leaders can secure a stake in the next government.

    “We must put our house in order by registering as voters to ensure we are in government next year,” Mr Mung’aro said.

    Mr Odinga urged the MRC leadership and their supporters to register and participate in the elections.

    Without disclosing the agenda of his talks with the MRC officials, Mr Odinga said the group could elect its own leaders to deal with the historical injustices using the devolved government.

    “Through the ballot, we can change the economy, education, health care and infrastructure of this country with good governance,” the PM said.

    House-to-house campaign

    He challenged ODM officials and supporters to start a house-to-house campaign urging the residents to register.
    Immigration assistant minister Francis Baya termed the voter apathy “dangerous”.

    While commissioning the Kipevu III Thermal Plant in Mombasa on December 5, President Kibaki urged Coast residents to fully participate in the country’s democratic process.

    “You simply cannot afford to ignore a chance to become a voter in your own country and be in a position to elect your preferred leaders,” he said.

    Mr Khamis said most elected leaders were only paying lip service to the registration campaigns.

    “Not a single leader is thinking of those people who fled Tana River at the height of tribal strife that saw many of them relocate elsewhere,” he said in a telephone interview.

    Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) statistics show that by December 1, out of the 517,358 potential voters in Kilifi county, only 126,285 had registered.

    Tana River county had registered 32,960 out of 111,934, Lamu 22,272 out of 47,337, Mombasa 146,876 out of 437,934, Kwale 62,410 out of 302,997 and Taita-Taveta 43,480 of the target 132,707.

    But the IEBC North Coast region coordinator Annastasia Mutua is worried they might not achieve their targets if the issue of identification cards is not resolved.

    “We are facing challenges in some pockets of Tana River county, especially Garsen and Hola, where the vetting process for IDs is long and tedious,” she said.

    Apart from this, the coordinator is disturbed by the lack of IDs for most of the youths between 18 and 25 in Magarini constituency, where only 21 per cent of the population of 82,630 has registered.

    Her South Coast region counterpart, Amina Soud, cites insecurity, voter apathy and leaflets warning against voter listing as some of the reasons behind the poor turnout.

    Residents of sections of Kwale county are cautious about registering because youths in those areas have allegedly been recording names of those seen at registration centres.

    Kilifi governor aspirant Gabriel Katana wants the issue of voter importation, especially from Tana River to Malindi, to be taken seriously, saying it is a threat to peace.

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Coast-leaders-worried-about-voter-apathy/-/1064/1639824/-/13bx4c8/-/index.html

    • To simplify, this is what the registration is by region. IEBC has to be more inventive and find better ways of registering people.


      Region Registered
      NAIROBI 760 534
      NYANZA CENTRAL 560 126
      THIKA REGION 524 095
      CENTRAL RIFT REGION 490 279
      NYANZA SOUTH 445 124
      NORTH RIFT 435 313
      SOUTH RIFT 381 241
      LOWER EASTERN 376 719
      NYERI REGION 369 373
      KAKAMEGA 357 755
      CENTRAL EASTERN 355 005
      BUNGOMA 308 112
      SOUTH COAST 252 766
      NORTH COAST 181 519
      MANDERA WAJIR 114 910
      GARISSA/IJARA 54 838
      UPPER EASTERN 24 784
      Grand Total 5 992 493
  13. Excellent! Thanks for this.

    Still troubling numbers for South Coast and NEP!!!! Still ???? role of insecurity/security operations. Another security hotspot Garissa @ 23%.

    While Nairobi has registered 56%, the expansive Mandera has only registered 5%. The geographic and terrain factors must definitely be a huge factor causing this disparity…IEBC failed to adopt creative ways to prevent disenfranchisement of these folks.

    Baadaye

    • Job

      Let me know if you want the data presented differently, am currently working on a few presentation models, not just this data but some others as well.

      I will be inviting all DeepCogitation members to help participate in constructing some data models when they get time. Stay tuned

      Its indeed a great privilege to have such gifted brains out here on this forum

  14. Hello members,

    I hope that by now you have had an opportunity to look at the 2 week BVR registration data as provided by the IEBC (data compiled and summarised for you above – If you would like the data emailed to you, let me know and I’d be happy to email you the tables).

    The numbers are way below IEBC projections, but that is not too surprising. We are two weeks into the registration exercise, most Kenyans are “last minute” guys, so we can expect a spike towards the end of the exercise. Unfortunately according to Murphy’s Laws ” never let a mechanical object know that you are in a hurry” – this translates to expect monumental and horrific BVR glitches towards the end of the exercise with a real possibility of locking out a significant chunk of voters.

    Please reach out to everyone you know and have them avoid last minute registration. Its better to wait in line a full day and even come back the following day if necessary, than to arrive on the last day and find non working machines. There simply will be no cure for that.

    Whereas the IEBC target approx 18m voters based on census data, Blog-Admin prefers to use the 14m registered for the Constitutional referendum as a baseline and suggest that this year it may be possible to add perhaps another 1.5m to make about 15.5m to 16m

    Currently we have about 6m registered at the end of two weeks marking the middle of the exercise. With about 10 days remaining (see countdown widget) of registration, assuming at least 1.5 million have been registered this past week, everybody needs to make concerted effort and aggressively campaign to have more people registered. 10m people need to be registered in 10 days, i.e approx 1m a day. this number increasing everyday and that will take its toll on the equipment and staff, with more demands on resources and shorter fuses for everyone.

    It will not be surprising to find increasing accusations, agitations and finally breakdowns in discipline and order as tempers get frayed.

    Anyway spread the word for people to register now and this weekend rather than get caught up in last minute headaches. Also remember that there is a holiday and associated festivities right in the middle of next week. Encourage more people to register this weekend and before 12-12-12 (where are those December 12 movement people – what a great day for them this 12-12-12 magic number can be sigh!!)

    By the way did you know this is the last time any of us alive today will ever experience this perfect date 12-12-12 (and no! it doesn’t matter whether you have a ‘collision’ agreement to sign or not, there will never be 13-13-13 :-) )

    From the DeepCogitation Admin board

    Happy Jamhuri Day folks – Register to Vote and Be safe and enjoy the celebrations

    • If only they started earlier! Too little too late!

      …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
      As the deadline nears, Beach management unit officials in Migori County have barred locals from fishing unless they register as voters. Fishmongers too must produce voters cards before they can buy fish.

      “Voter registration statistics in Nyanza are worrying. That’s why we are using such methods to encourage people to register,” said Mr Victor Otieno, a fisherman from Nyatike.

      And why could the same Provincial Administration be deployed all over the republic to mobilise voters?

      …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
      In Nakuru, IEBC is relying on the Provincial Administration to mobilise voters ahead of Tuesday’s deadline.

      tnk wrote:

      “The numbers are way below IEBC projections, but that is not too surprising. We are two weeks into the registration exercise, most Kenyans are “last minute” guys, so we can expect a spike towards the end of the exercise. Unfortunately according to Murphy’s Laws ” never let a mechanical object know that you are in a hurry” – this translates to expect monumental and horrific BVR glitches towards the end of the exercise with a real possibility of locking out a significant chunk of voters.”

      …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
      And several people were turned away for hours at the Sacred Heart Secondary School registration centre in Mombasa on Sunday after IEBC clerks ran out of acknowledgment slips and later the Biometric Voter Registration kit went off due to a low battery.

      http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Voters-list-nears-11-million-mark/-/1064/1645502/-/ju7t6qz/-/index.html

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