By Election Results

A look at the results from the by-elections for MPs

By Election Results

Its evident that in the strongholds, Ndhiwa and Kangema there are really no surprises, i.e TNA performed as expected and ODM did as well

However the result from Kajiado serve as an indicator that TNA is indeed a party that is gathering traction.

However back to the Kangema results, the dismal performance of the MSM candidate is a clear indicator that the Mungiki ties have a negative influence.

Overall these results indicate that all the other parties Narc-K, Wiper WDM, GNU, UDF, URP etc carry very little clout. Clearly the coming elections will be between TNA and ODM, and all the other parties will only be useful as spoilers or boosters.

What do you guys think

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7 comments on “By Election Results

  1. Race between Uhuru and I: Raila

    Prime Minister Raila Odinga on Wednesday said the 2013 presidential race a contest between him and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

    Mr Odinga said his party was laying grounds for a big competition with rivals and announced that a revised ODM campaign manifesto designed for the 2013 elections would be launched soon.

    He described the Monday by-elections in which Mr Kenyatta’s The National Alliance (TNA) won two seats against ODM’s one as an early indication the two-horse race was beginning to shape up.

    The PM was speaking at the launch of a new team of commissioners to oversee the ODM primaries set for January next year.

    National convention

    “As I have always said now you can see that the two-horse race is beginning to shape up.”

    Mr Odinga also announced that his party would hold its national convention in December to allow delegates to make key decisions including nominating its presidential candidate before the March 4, 2013, General Election.

    The eight-member National Elections Board (NEB) will now be led by retired army captain Henry Kathurima, who has been appointed new chairman replacing Mr Philip Okundi.

    Mr Okundi resigned to contest the Homa Bay governor’s seat. Other members of the new NEB include Mr James Ogundo, Dr Joseph Misoi, Ms Judy Pareno, Mr Chacha Nyaigoti Chacha, Ms Beatrice Saban, Ms Hellen Nayuko Katangie and Mr Ibrahim Mohammed.

    “Our manifesto is now ready and will be launched soon. It captures our aspirations including our desire to launch a social health scheme that will bring poor Kenyans on board,” the PM hinted.

    Reiterating that elections would be held on March 4 as planned, Mr Odinga called on women candidates to come out in large numbers as ODM would support their candidatures.

    “We want women candidates to be confident. And we are appealing to those still undecided to come up because we at the Orange will support them,” Mr Odinga stated.

    He appealed to the new elections board to conduct democratic and acceptable nominations that will ensure the party maintained its stability even after the expected acrimonious campaigns associated with party primaries.

    “We want this new elections board to be impartial and to ensure it conducts credible nominations,” Mr Odinga said.

    The PM warned that ODM would not offer nomination favours to any candidate, telling aspirants to campaign strongly and let voters have the final say on the nominees.

    Party chairman Henry Kosgey, who also attended the event at the Fairview Hotel, assured those preparing to contest through ODM that the party nominations would be free and fair.

    “Nobody will get our ticket just because he knows one or two people at the party headquarters,” Mr Kosgey said.

    Mr Kathurima said his team would ensure its operations were above board.

    “We are committed to the responsibility given to us by the party and we are going to make sure we handle it with care,” he said.

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Race+between+Uhuru+and+I+Raila/-/1064/1512086/-/jt406xz/-/index.html

  2. Given the low voter turnout, I really dont know what to make of the Kajiado results given that the TNA candidate was a former ODM guy. It does seem like this thing will end in the first round. Like Job, I am sensing an increased enthusiasm in the TNA strongholds partly due to the fact that voters are acutely aware Uhuru will not be around for the second round if it comes to that. I am however concerned about the continued violence reported at the ndiwa polls. This really makes ODM look bad and the team should work harder to ensure that elections are peaceful. The project’s sponsors must now acknowledge a TNA that is much stronger than they had calculated and go back to the drawing board.

  3. The headlines should be reading something like:

    URP loses Eldoret civic seat to TNA
    UDF loses Kakamega civic seat to ODM

    But then, reality reveals that freedom of the press is restricted to its (media) owners!

    • Job – first welcome aboard, and its really great to have you here

      It should be dawning on WDM, URP and UDF that they really have no bargaining power and theirs will either be a labor of love or hate i.e work for their preferred candidate or else work destroy their “enemy”, but as far as presidential ambitions, they better put their claims on the shelves and wait for another opportunity. All that G7 nonsense is nothing but G1. I like these by-elections for providing some useful insight as to what’s ahead. I foresee a shift in Kibaki’s handlers as they face the reality of the situation on the ground

  4. Phil

    You are correct in that the voter turn-out as always in the by-elections is very low. But more importantly ODM virtually donated their candidate to TNA and in so doing lost a golden opportunity to capture this seat. Clearly ODM is not paying attention and is not investing in good candidates.

    At this moment its too early to tell whether its TNA the party, or Uhuru the Candidate, or some other factor that is influencing voters, only time will tell. For now we congratulate all the winners, and TNA party for a job well done.

    Regrettably there were still reports of violence recorded in Ndhiwa

  5. TNA has done exceptionally well for a party that was only formed a few months ago. Do not forget there was a time when NARC-K was new kid on the block delivering MPs like Sonko and PNU was also winning by-elections here and there.

    That is not the case any more. ODM has, however, maintained consistency in by-elections and even where they do not win the party has been a clear front runner like it has shown in Kajiado North. All the same, the TNA winner in Kajiado North is a former ODM candidate who gave the late Saitoti a run for his money in 2007. Many feel Saitoti rigged himself back. ODM must seal the leaks. The defection rate is high and is costing the party votes. It must devise a formula that will unsuccessful candidates within the party.

    But to fully appreciate these by-elections in relation to the forthcoming general elections, one ought to first consider the voter turn out in the three elections and then also conduct a deeper analysis that takes into consideration the results of the civic seats. Which brings me to the other two parties. Kajiado voter turn out was poor, approciamately 30%, while those of Ndhiwa and Kangema were above 50%. Sakuda must not get complacent since he has been elected by a minority of registered voters in Kajiado North.

    It follows that NARC-K, UDF and URP must go back to the drawing board and re-examine where the rain started beating them. My view is that both these parties will want to quickly align themselves with either TNA or ODM. All the losing parties are fronting presidential candidates who do not seem to hold near total sway in their perceived strongholds, a fact that greatly impacts their presidential ambitions.

    • The voter turn-out rate in Kajiado is actually closer to the norm for by elections (in the % range of 30s). Therefore, it is indeed Kangema and Ndhiwa numbers – for a by election – that are not normal.

      What this shows definitely is increased voter enthusiasm within ODM and TNA strongholds. It is safe to deduce that Uhuru Kenyatta’s (TNA) and Raila Odinga’s (ODM) respective base supporters (more than elsewhere) are sensing the opportunity and urgency for the 2013 poll. TNA’s civic numbers in the Eldoret Market Ward race were able to swamp URP (Ruto’s) attempt to flood the ward with new younger voters from neighbouring wards.

      The godfathers of UDF must be shocked that despite massive funding, the rebranding of Musalia Mudavadi as the great hope of the Abaluhya failed to receive the anticipated enthusiasm. The Bukura ward grassroots voters read the project for what it is (as aptly described by Jirongo); rejecting it and instead electing ODM’s Andati. I don’t know whether it’s even necessary for Kibisu Kabatesi to attempt spinning this shellacking.

      At the backdrop, a two horse race is clearly shaping up between TNA’s Uhuru and Raila’s ODM. Mark these words, it may actually play off in the first round – when certain voters decided to ignore their locally planted projects and end this thing early. Whether it is sorted in the first round or second round, it is surely coming. If voter enthusiasm stats remain as they are, it will be much harder to convince the less enthusiastic voters to line up behind someone slated to face ICC trial barely weeks after the poll. Things look good.

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