The Wannabe Presidential Candidates

Cherangany MP Joshua Kutuny said further negotiations on coalitions with other partners would not include the positions of the President and the Deputy President, which have already been taken.

It is not clear what role other key players in the G7 Alliance, who include Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, are going to play in the new alliance.

This excerpt is lifted from this article in the daily nation

Now this is wrong in so many areas but lets examine a few truths

a) The first batch of ODM rebels left ODM because of what they cited as lack of democratic space. So now my question is, who decided who is president, deputy etc in this so called (yet again) newly formed alliance (this alliance is recreated anew each and everytime these fellows meet)

b) ruto, mudavadi, wamalwa etc all claimed they want nothing other than the top seat and will not play second fiddle to anyone. well reality is they can be nothing and whoever actually gives them a chance at the No.2 slot is actually doing them a favor and rescuing them from political oblivion considering that its president or bust

c) As has been asked elsewhere many times, why do these guys want to sell their support base so cheap, why is their support base so blind to reality.

The G7 is in this for G7 and not for country. The one and only mission for these guys is to be president and lock out Raila. Nothing else. Once these guys are in power, implementing the new constitution will be so corrupted, completely diluted and made even worse than it is already. Imagine any of these guys enacting any law that jeopardises their positions, look at what they have done with the Integrity bill, what do we expect in future? How can we elect any of these G7 guys which is doing the same over and over expecting a different outcome? Who is really that daft, to elect the two guys who are suspected to have masterminded the PEV, and expect any different?

But my pity goes to the flower girls in the entourage, for even remotely entertaining the fantasy that they had a genuine chance in the G7 party. I wonder what’s the plan B for those who thought they’d be running mates to these guys e.g Mwakwere and others

These guys have been running around the country saying that they do not want boardroom deals. Well what can I say, when have these guys ever met their constituents and given them a chance to elect office bearers? What a charade

And of course this story would not be complete without this footnote

24 comments on “The Wannabe Presidential Candidates

  1. oh my as soon as the G7 tackle one issue, three more jump right back at them in a typical game session of whac-a-mole

    so now it appears that a running mate will have to be from the same party, (note haven’t gone back to read the constiution yet or the laws enacted) but from this clip courtesy of KissTV, it appears that is what IEBC is saying but they are seeking the views of uhuru’s cousin Githu, over the matter

    So if ruto wants to be Uhuru’s running mate he has to decamp to TNA and vice versa. so if we for one moment entertain this to be true, hehehehe 🙂 the $6m question is,

    which of these tribal warlords is willing to take the risk and defect en-masse with his party leaders (sycophants) and his tribe (yet again) to the new outfit?

    hehehe someone pinch me, i expect more “outrage” at the “shoddy writing” of the new constitution which does not allow grown people to wallow in mud at will


    • They can form a new party which should be a coalition party, but the problem is the time for that is over. All parties that are going to contest for the next election have already submitted the party membership to the Registrar of Political Parties. I think the deadline was a few weeks back.

      If Ruto has been submitted as a member of URP, he can only run as a member of URP or not run at all. Same with Uhuru and his TNA. If these guys paid people to read the constitution for them and spent some time figuring practical things out instead of running around collecting political rejects as defectors they could get a few things right. Even those defectors need to have their names submitted as members of the party they are defecting to. So collecting garbage on the roadside is not going to help anybody.

      In Ruto’s case he has spent his own money to create URP. That is his baby. That is his bargaining chip to use to hawk people around to the highest bidder. How is he even if he could bolt from URP and join TNA where he will have to be mtu wa mkono for election only in a party where even Uhuru told him the membership cannot vote for him. TNA only needs Ruto to hand over the Kalenjin votes and nothing else.

      And in just over a month from now, Jan 4, 2013 all party nominees have to be submitted to the IEBC. Never mind that the court cases involving Uhuru and Ruto eligibility are still going on. Next court date is No. 23, 2012. That court case and the appeals which will end up with the Supreme Court may not be resolved before Jan. 4, 2012. If things get wire and the SC makes it clear that being charged with crimes against humanity will breach Chapter Six and as expected allows the suspects to run anyway and wait to be thrown out if elected then it will be decision time for them but there names will still be on the ballot. Talk about a quagmire!


    • very well put adongo

      time has run out for the coalition making. real concrete steps must be in the works or its burst. am guessing next step is anarchy and tantrums.

      like kids in a supermarket/store once they realise that they cannot have all the candy, i expect a lot of rolling on the floor, and other gymnastics to get attention

      but dont bring out the popcorn just yet. i think there is more still ahead


    • Tnk,
      This is a quagmire for the confused lot.
      However you look at it, these people are toast, especially Ruto. The man has been doing fuzzy math since the beginning of the year with no proper results. The only way for him to survive politically is to be on the ballot paper and end up number three. Thereafter he can strike a deal with one of the top two candidates. But any future deal, after round one with Uhuru is due to backfire in the same way the current one is. So there you are.

      Otherwise, it’s so funny that these chaps have not taken time to internalize the constitution. Perhaps they believe that Uhurus cousin, the AG will always help them out by making an interpretation of the law favorable to them. If it’s true that the president and his deputy has to come from the same party then the Hague bound chaps are in the worst possible place. For all I know, Uhuru will never dissolve his party to join URP, never on earth. Ruto can dissolve but as Adongo opines, he is going to be a mtu wa mkono. Noise makers such as Duale would simply be forced find another avenue for making noise as TNA has its own noise makers.
      Poor Kajudas was told never to go with this mob but he adamantly refused, now see what’s happening. No amount of tantrums will help. He will go down in history as the most humiliated politician in Kenya.


      • mzee,

        I think what they will do is sign the so-called pre-lection coalition pact which allows the parties involved to come up with nomination process agreed upon by all the parties. I think they may have about three weeks or so to do that. So they may come up with some quickly patched up deal. The problem with that deal is that once you submit it to the Registrar there is no plan B. You can’t take it back.

        So if Ruto commits to auction the Kalenjin community to Uhuru and then things go sour on the ground for Ruto he has no plan B which is to try running himself and then nogiate after the first round based on the strength he has in terms of elected M.Ps of his party and the votes he recieved.

        As you can see Kalonzo has jumped ship and I think he will go all the way and negotiate after round one. Mudavadi is now kaput and given all the mess going on in Ruto’s backyard we are going to have round two when Uhuru and Ruto may very well be incapacitated.

        Wamalwa already made a move of firing Shitanda and co from New Ford Kenya to allow him to have the authority to sign on behalf of New Ford Kenya. That whole process is going to be contested and the whole deal may unravel. Same with Musikari Kombo signing for Ford Kenya. That is another story altogether.

        But it is lovely to see all these guys together. It is good for the country to face these manace and solve it once and for all.

        Their worst nightmare right now is the re-election of Barack Obama. Make no mistake about it. This was a horror show for them. With Obama back in office all hopes of a deferral through the UNSC have been squashed forever. It is The Hague or hell. There is no middle ground.

        Would Romney have saved them? No, but there would be hope. Romney was sorrounded by the worst neocons of the Bush era as his advisors on foreign affairs and the most disgusting in that lot is Bolton who was the US rep at the UN. He hates the ICC with a passion and in fact he has called for it to be abolished. Bolton was one of the key advsors to Mitt Romney and he was headed for a top job in those cycles. If there was ever hope for the Uhuru mob to subvert justice from the ICC it was that man Mr. Bolton and they would started lobbying him from day one. They have the money. Well Romney is now safely tacked away in the Cayman islands forever. So it is game on. Barack Obama will not fool around with any nonsense of a pariah state.

        Right now as we speak Uhuru and Ruto have as many routes to The Hague as Obama had to achieving the 270 electoral votes and as few routes to State House as Romney had of achieving the 270 electoral votes.

        Uhuru and Ruto have to choose which way they want to go to The Hague. They can go quietly and battle their cases there or they can go wailing and scratching and clinging to thorn trees along the way. That is their problem but they are headed to The Hague without a doubt. I am now ready to bet my mom’s last goat on this. Hehehehe. It is going to be one hell of a ride for the boys. Shauri zao.


      • hehehe lets add to the fuzzy math, pre-election pact and what not
        we now introduce something the papers call cracks as coast reject the tribal warlord balala and want a more local warlord like mwakwere

        its amazing.

        once again someone remind me the G7 strategy. they are all presidential candidates and form what i read
        one will be vying for president so that he can become a running mate. another one is vying for president so that he can be annointed speaker. yet another vying for president so that he can be leader of majority and the king pin is vying for president so as to escape the ICC and protect hi $500m portfolio

        will the one vying of for president of the republic of kenya for serving the interests of the people kenya please stand up? anyone?


        • Tnk,

          And meanwhile, mara Mr. 8% is still with G7, mara he cannot accept the size of mkate they gave him. I think he must have expected at least a Raila-like nusu mkate in the GCG!

          The problem with dividing the G7 mkate is that Uhuru and Ruto have already, between themselves, taken away half of the full mkate leaving the other half to be shared amongst the remaining G5. Assuming the G5 shared the remaining half mkate equally, then each of them has mkate the size of 1/2*1/5 = 1/10.

          Now, this is the sort of math Mr. 8% cannot stomach! Can you imagine a whole current VP getting only 1/10 of nusu mkate?

          And as if the math is not fuzzy enough, Mr. 8% and his lieutenants add to the confusion! Mara the lieutenants say Wiper is considering a coalition with ODM only for Mr. 8% to come out and deny it saying Wiper will NEVER ever enter into an election pact with ODM.

          But finally after rejecting the 1/10 of a nusu mkate (I hope he will not change his mind again if offered a 1/8 of a G4 nusu mkate. But this can only happen if one of the remaining G5 is kicked out, and I think that person is most likely going to be Balala – the Mijikenda are already crying foul!), UDF and ODM (yet again according to a Mr. 8%’s lieutenant) are potential coalition partners and talks are underway!!

          Oh man, the G7 brigade have just realised that kumbe this mkate is not big enough for all the G7 members!

          What to do now? Go to ODM? It has a full loaf all for itself!!


        • Einstein,
          Sharing a portion of the nusu mkate is tough as chewing a ”jwala”.
          All I know is that Kajudas is very untrustworthy and egoistic and must be on the ballot come rain come shine. The guy believes he is God’s gift to Kenyan and has difficulty in believing that only 8% of the electorate prefers him as president.
          I think that the man’s heart and mind is still in G7 for he believes that both Uhuru and Kibaki owe him for helping them out after their murderous spree. The duo however believe that they have awarded him with a post which he did not deserve and could never get on his own. In their mind, this should be enough. So the issue of returning a favor does not arise.

          Raila should go to the people for it’s the people who have the vote. Coalition agreements should come second.


        • hehehe einstein and mzee

          for me, the most confounding thing is not so much the difficulty these guys are having with slicing that loaf. why my jaw drops to the floor is that these guys are slicing up an imaginary loaf. the flour is yet to be bought, the yeast and what not, then hire the baker etc. the loaf my good people so far is just an imagination, a fertile one at that. its not yet anywhere near getting to the table and yet these folks are practising swordsmanship on how they slice the loaf.

          way it looks, that loaf is not arriving to that table but perhaps to a table near you. 🙂

          talk about counting your chicks before they hatch

          and while we are on that issue – lets talk integrity issues/values

          here is a story about the chief of CIA resigning on account of an extra-marital affair

          no, the guy is not being accused of murdering 1200 people and displacing 500,000. an no, he is not going for the president of the republic either.


        • folks,

          The narrative emerging out of all these and you can see it in the bloggers in mainstraim Kenyan media like Daily Nation which is our own Fox news, is that the whole rough shod alliance is all about saving Uhuru and Ruto. It has nothing to do with Kenyans, all the 40 million of them and certainly nothing to do with any other politician. It is all about Ruto and Uhuru and nothing else. They think they can sell that snake oil to Kenyans on the basis of tribal arithmetic. They are going to be very sorry. Multiply that by 10.

          The Uhuruto mob are going to learn rather painfully that all Kenyans regardless of their tribe need food on the table and when it comes to a situation that will completely destabalize the country and lead to economic difficulties just to save two individuals, the whole country suffers regardless of which tribe one belongs to. That is a frightening narrative emerging from this Ruto Uhuru farce. And it is just beginning.

          This is what I am talking about.



        • Adongo, tnk and others,
          I think that even the two ICC bound amigos have realized that the they can cheat some people for some but never on earth are they going to lie to everybody all the time.
          The moment Ruto signs on that dotted line to be Uhurus running mate then he should rest assured that he is toast. Ruto might be a good campaigner but he is not a miracle worker and no amount of Raila this Raila that will do the trick of making Kalenjins vote for Uhuru. That’s a given that should be taken to the bank.
          I don’t know what Ruto is thinking trying to convince the Kalenjins to vote for a person who orchestrated their murder. It’s not going to wash. Not now not forever. For a change Ruto should try getting Uhuru to be his running mate, that would have traction with the kalenjins but grind to a halt with the other side. What a catch 22.

          BUT THE GREATEST HINDER is ordinary Kenyans who are not ready to flush the country down the drain for the sake of two billionaires. People saw what happened during Mois sanctions and again they saw what happened after Kibaki stole elections. Both cases were not pretty and it’s the ordinary people who suffered most. The millionaires were chilling out in their leafy suburbs. Kenyans are not buying it.

          ODM should not shy away from talking about ICC. Whatever damage that was to be done is done. The more the party puts the issue on the table the better. Kenyans must not be gagged and threatened by the Uhuruto gang. The more people talk about ICC the better for ODM. It’s too late to retreat or surrender on this subject. The Hague bound amigos must be exposed for what they are. Its great to see ordinary people telling of this gang of robbers and murderers


    • According to this document (you may experience some difficulty – IEBC are forever changing their web interface with unpredictable results)

      Scroll over to page 102/103

      There is only one row per party for a presidential candidate and deputy president.

      This is what is causing the headache. If parliament is to amend this, then only God knows what that ballot paper will look like. I suspect a book will have to be printed to accommodate all the possible President/Deputy permutations and combinations. Who knows maybe even the MOU cake divisions will find their way to the ballot paper, plus the composition of the family members.

      I can imagine the BVR screen displaying all registered party symbols in a slide show


  2. uhuru and ruto may have all the money to buy each one of us but how exactly will ‘president uhuru’ or ‘president ruto’ jump this hurdle?

    145. (1) A member of the National Assembly, supported by at least
    a third of all the members, may move a motion for the impeachment
    of the President—
    (a) on the ground of a gross violation of a provision of this
    Constitution or of any other law;
    (b) where there are serious reasons for believing that the
    President has committed a crime under national or
    international law;


  3. have been reading a lot of comments in the media, and it appears that it is firmly confirmed

    a) uhuru’s backyard will support his bid to the last man
    b) ruto’s backyard will support his bid to the last man
    c) none of the support is guaranteed to the other man if they switch presidential spots in fact the only guarantee is total apathy or decamping to other parties
    d) musalia … …… who is that?
    e) eugene, ….. tuju ……. etc

    so then, what to do what to do?

    the only thing left is to keep whispering sweet nothings to their supporters and to each other, to comfort themselves, and provide some soft relief, hope and courage. but knowing fully well that there is no real future and that they are marking time, hoping for some big miracle of fate otherwise, their net combined effect is that of election spoilers and not that of presidential contenders, worthy of being elected to take this country forward. the fact remains that with any of the two in a position of power, then we have to wait 5 or maybe ten years to regain face in the international community.

    as we all know, we knew this was coming when ruto started his rebel movement, and we said let ruto decamp from ODM and then we’ll talk about his real options, then. after all the grass is always greener on the other side.

    when mudavadi did jump we said the same thing too

    the reality is this, those that peeled off the layers of ODM leadership, had hoped to achieve two things, i.e (1) peel off and weaken the leadership and (2) capture the peeled off layers and support base to boost their own weak layers

    hehehe in reality what we knew is that a) the layer that allows itself to get peeled off, is too week and therefore will be easily peeled off no matter where it goes, as can be seen by ruto, mudavadi etc, they are looking for a spot, any spot to be stuck on to, like a used band-aid. TNA with a solid tribal support and deep pockets appears to be the best and only feasible velcro patch for all defectors who are walking around in a daze

    as for weakening ODM, these guys simply don’t have a clue.

    hehehe leta engine, adongo, it seems that no one hears you when you say the real political alliances for 2013 are yet to be formed, but hey lets keep selling newspapers. i bet tomorrow or some time soon the mother of all boardroom deals will be finalised (yet again) and a new winning formula winning in round 1 will be revealed. the week after that the deal of the year where even the elections will not be necessary since the G29 deal will be sealed and in the bank

    🙂 🙂 🙂


  4. Adongo and tnk
    I think that you are right on this one. It is one thing for Ruto to sit in a room with Uhuru Kenyatta and be told to his face that the Kikuyus will not support him while at the same time being promised a few votes from Uhuru family. It’s however another thing to convince the Kalenjins that this is a good idea. It’s even worse to tell them that the only way forward is to vote for Uhuru Kenyatta who in the first place does not give a damn about Ruto and his supporters.

    How does Ruto go on to win the presidency with the help of Uhuru if the latters “people” won’t vote for him? That’s for Ruto to go figure, all I know is that it’s going to be a tough way to win an election. But the man sees himself asTHE political wheeler dealer of all time and will somehow just manage to squeeze through. Rutos actions are pushing many of the Kalenjins directly into ODM arms.
    How about Uhuru Kenyatta, can he convince the Kalenjin to support him having asserted that “his people” won’t vote for Ruto? No need to discuss this further.

    I know that Uhuru Kenyatta and Mudavadi cannot redo what Shikuku and Matiba did in 1992 when they united most of central and western provinces. Mudavadi does not have the strength of character, charisma and campaign ability to unite votes in that province. Uhuru has a bottomless pocket but he is too regional to venture further out from his home. Besides, as long as ODM can get its fair of votes in Western province then such an alliance will not reach anywhere. On any given day, if Mudavadi unites with Uhuru almost all the Rift valley votes will go to ODM. That`s the dilemma the Hague crew have to face.


  5. tnk & mzee,

    This is one of the pluses of the new constitution. It has effectively clipped the wings of the politicians and reduced their ability to negotiate with partners. If we were operating under the previous constitution then the G7 would have had more substance than fluff. With the current constitution, you have to declare the vice presidential candidate ahead of time, the cards have to be on the table and therefore the G7 presidential candidate can only court 1 other candidate. Whichever way you look at it, it will most definitely end up in a G2.

    The next dilemma is that while the other ‘losing’ candidates could in the past be promised of a ministerial position, under the new constitution the ministers aka cabinet secretaries are not going to be legislators. So what is the advantage of the Eugene Wamalwas, Kalonzo Musyokas, etc in supporting the Uhuruto axis? Will they forego vying for their elective positions in the hope of getting appointed as a minister? If they are vying for other political positions, of what benefit would being a part of the G7 be to them? If they are hoping for ministerial appointments it should be noted that there is no security of tenure as a minister and their appointment could yet be rejected by parliament.

    The decisions that the remaining G5 of the 7 will be a difficult one because the carrots that can be dished by the president are now limited. The only one in that group that stands to benefit is one Raphael Tuju. He is headed nowhere as a presidential candidate. He can also not win any other inferior seat as long as there is a contest. The only chance he has is to try & position himself for an executive appointment along the lines of Joe Nyaga’s.

    With the discoveries of minerals coming in thick & fast one would see why there is a lot of lust for the top prize, that is the subject of another post. As for now, the G7 is essentially G2 with the other 5 being over-glorified flower girls.


  6. The coalitions and counter coalitions seem to be the order of the day. No one wants to be left out. People are starting to realize that either they have a strong party or unite with others to have any chance of winning the presidency. But which parties are the most likely to stand at the end of the day?
    It looks as if all the coalition talks are being used by some political parties to blackmail others into supporting them. William Ruto is the number one blackmailer, dangling the Rift Valley votes in everyone face as if they were all his for taking. Mara he is talking to Raila mara Uhuru mara Kalonzo.

    But as has been mentioned in this blog before, until there is a signature on that dotted line all the coalition talks are just a money spinning tool for the media. The large egos are also a hindrance to such coalitions. For One, Uhuru has to be the flag bearer of any group that he is involved, that’s a given. This simply means that people such and Ruto, Kalonzo, Wamalwa etc have to fight for the second spot. As we all know, Kalonzo will never back off for Ruto even if heavens come tumbling down. Ruto will never play a second fiddle to Kalonzo even if he were given a bag of cash and three elephants.

    Given the odds that are stuck up against Ruto, he might agree to be Uhurus number two but this means losing a big chunk of the Rift valley votes to ODM. Should Uhuru go it alone without Ruto, which he is contemplating in the event of fallout, if the elections go to second round, UK knows he has no chance against RAO. That is the dilemma that the tribal chiefs face in their quest to block RAO. This is before we get to the matter of The Hague. However one looks at it, the Uhuruto gang won’t win the elections but they are going to put everything in the campaigns. Simply put, their bottles of poison are ready; it’s just as matter of choosing which one to take oneself out with.


    • A few things are beginning to emerge pretty clearly.

      1. That Ruto’s joke of running for the presidency is now dead. We knew that a long time ago. Ruto does not have the numbers and as things stand now with the katiba you run lose and go home. So Ruto has now accepted his place. That is good. That same reality is going to sink in with kina Eugene Wamalwa, Jirongo etc. It is Mudavadi who is in a very bad spot. He burnt his bridge with ODM. He was fooled by kina Kibaki and Uhuru has refused to back him. Mudavadi might decide to stay in the race and pray that something happens to the Hague chaps to help them understand that they are not entering State House. We will see how that goes but those chaps still don’t get it. They will and it may be too late for them even to bring Mudavadi back. That is their problem.

      2. What happens to the Kalenjin votes that Ruto seems to think he can sell to anyone? Are Kalenjins going to flock to Uhuru just because Ruto has ordered them to do so? It is going to be very hard. My own sense is that Mudavadi would have been an easier sell for Ruto for many reasons. The land nightmare in Rift Valley is not going away. Ruto becoming Uhuru’s waterboy means the landed aristocracy will call the shots. In my view the Kalenjin votes are going to go all over the map and Raila will get his fair share if he comes with a credible plan on devolution and addressing land issues. The other good news for Raila and the ODM is that Mudavadi running as a lame duck with absolutely no chance means even Mudavadi’s own Maragoli backyard may not back him. Western province has refused to flock to Mudavadi. He may en up losing everything like what happened to him in 2002.

      3. How will Kenyans approach an impunity alliance of Uhuru and Ruto basically getting ready to go down with the whole country in what looks like a reckless selfish move telling Kenyans they don’t give a damn about anything else. Are Kenyan ready to commit national suicide and throw the country into the abyss for Uhuru and Ruto? That is a dynamic that the Uhuruto mob has not even started to comprehend. The rather silly argument that the international community will just ignore the ICC and accomodate international fugitives in State House because they have been democratically elected just defies logic. Omar Bashir was campaigning for a re-election while his case was at The Hague. Bashir won the re-election by a landslide and that never stopped him from being declared an international fugitive. Just as the OTP prosecutor said today in Nairobi the ICC process goes on regardless.

      An Uhuru Ruto ticket is going to bring its own dynamics that even the duo has not grasped. For one thing it scares the shit out of of the money guys who recruited Mudavadi. There are people smart enough to know neither Uhuru nor Ruto will chill in State House anytime soon. Even the ones who hate Raila love their money. Having two crooks facing charges at the ICC as your number one and two candidates in a doomed project is not going to sell to the chaps who value their pocket book. They could fathom Mudavadi Uhuru ticket with Mudavadi as the presidential candidate and Uhuru as his running mate. That ticket could be tough to beat. The money boys will also feel comfortable that even if Uhuru gets derailed, Mudavadi stays as the president and will have to look for another deputy. That is the money ticket and muthamaki has pooh poohed it. Big mistake and that is great news for Raila.

      Then of course we have the Integrity rulings coming down soon. The beauty of it all is that the court rulings are going to leave everything hanging allowing the duo to stay in the race with almost sure guarantee that State House is out of the way. The CJ has already been asked to interpret the Integrity requirement with rgard to elective positions. The answer is rather obvious. The law is the law and there is nowhere in the katiba with any provision that integrity requirements can apply only to appointtees. But asking the CJ to speculate without a case before him will not provide any answers. The CJ and the SC is going to tell them integrity applies to all offices but that means nothing.

      So we can expect more pissing in the wind and marching on the same spot. That is part of the torture the ICC quagmire has already inflicted on those indicted. They want to pretend that this thing does not matter and yet everyday they are polotting and re-plotting to run around it and ending nowhere. Mara throwing insults at Kofi Annan. Mara visiting Kikwete to put in a good word. Now the prosecutor is in town and telling them they will her guests starting April 10, 2013. Tick Tock it is with no help in sight. phew!

      4.I think the Uhuru Ruto marriage of convenience is going to fall apart in no time and the yoyo dance will continue until the boys are tucked away at The Hague or become international fugitives on the loose. Mudavadi was there best hope and Raila’s biggest headache. With him safely under Uhuru’s bus a clear war between those facing charges of mass murder and rape against Raila and the ODM is a fair battle. It might just be what the country needs. Who knows.


      • Adongo and tnk
        I think that you are right on this one. It is one thing for Ruto to sit in a room with Uhuru Kenyatta and be told to his face that the Kikuyus will not support him while at the same time being promised a few votes from Uhuru family. It’s however another thing to convince the Kalenjins that this is a good idea. It’s even worse to tell them that the only way forward is to vote for Uhuru Kenyatta who in the first place does not give a damn about Ruto and his supporters.

        How does Ruto go on to win the presidency with the help of Uhuru if the latters “people” won’t vote for him? That’s for Ruto to go figure, all I know is that it’s going to be a tough way to win an election. But the man sees himself asTHE political wheeler dealer of all time and will somehow just manage to squeeze through. Rutos actions are pushing many of the Kalenjins directly into ODM arms.
        How about Uhuru Kenyatta, can he convince the Kalenjin to support him having asserted that “his people” won’t vote for Ruto? No need to discuss this further.

        I know that Uhuru Kenyatta and Mudavadi cannot redo what Shikuku and Matiba did in 1992 when they united most of central and western provinces. Mudavadi does not have the strength of character, charisma and campaign ability to unite votes in that province. Uhuru has a bottomless pocket but he is too regional to venture further out from his home. Besides, as long as ODM can get its fair of votes in Western province then such an alliance will not reach anywhere. On any given day, if Mudavadi unites with Uhuru almost all the Rift valley votes will go to ODM. That`s the dilemma the Hague crew have to face.


        • mzee,

          Yes Ruto made a huge political blunder. He started with his meeting with Raila which he later denied then accepted then he moved to Uhuru’s bedroom called TNA. The Raila re-union was bound to flop. After all the acrimony and falsehoods Ruto peddled about Raila sending him to the Hague it is impossible to walk back. You can’t just ship people around as if they are your personal property. If Raila was so bad just the other day, what changed. In my view Raila has many other avenues to work with the Kalenjin community and he has stuck with them despite all the matusi from the Rutos. Kalenjins do not belong to Ruto.

          Here is the mess Ruto walked into:

          Why si this a mess?

          1. It has put to rest the myth that a re-union of Ruto with Uhuru (for prayers and other ICC related gymnastics) will automatically mean a Kalenjin Kikuyu voting machine. That is what has been peddled 24/7 by the tribal math experts who foolishly assumed you just bring those two amigos together and kaboom you can start counting the votes. We told them they are dreaming and they never listened.

          2. Uhuru’s clear statement to Ruto that “his people” will never vote for Ruto has opened a can of worms. The first question is who among the Kalenjins are “Uhuru’s people” comfortable with? Moi? Biwott? They already threw Gideon Moi under the bus. So who do the Kikuyu elites want. Must they choose their leaders and choose for other communities who they can tolerate the way they tried with Tuju? If “Uhuru’s people” can’t vote for Ruto and probably any other Kalenjin, why do they think the Kalenjins should vote for Uhuru.

          3. The Uhuru Mudavadi fantasy faces the exact same problem above. Uhuru sees himself as the muthamaki. He has spent a fortune buying a party and bullying everybody in there. He is carrying Kibaki’s water all the way to The Hague after he did murderous things for them. He is pissed with Kibaki so far has not pulled him out. There is no way in hell he will accept to be Mudavadi’s deputy which will make him easily disposable after the election. If Mudavadi wants to be his deputy, he will take that but nothing else. People who are not too full of themselves know Uhuru is not going to State House so they may fool him to accept a Deputy position assuring him that Mudavadi will protect him. Uhuru will never buy that. And so the merry go around continues and Bensouda is in town. Oh dear. Like I said this is just part of the punishment. Turn and turn and turn and look at the clock and it is still midnight. WE will be here when they are ready to deal with the inevitable.


        • Mudavadi is finally realizing that that he has been had by akina Kibaki and Uhuru. All the promises e.g. harvesting the Central Province votes and Uhuru dropping out in his favor have not materialized. His unplanned and forced exit out of the ODM is not bearing any fruit and the so called national party that he claimed to lead is falling apart. Decoys that were planted by Uhuru Kenyatta in the party such as Kabondo wa Kabando have already left. People such as Abdi Kadir are just marking time and will be heading the TNA way soon. Now what is Mudavadi supposed to do?
          Why not run to Atwoli to unite him with the equally colorless crew of Wetangula and Jirongo in the campaign trail. See link.

          The only way for Mudavadi to make any headway in these elections is to have Uhuru somehow leave the race “for him”. Uhuru when leaving must make it clear that he is stepping aside for Mudavadi and also hit the campaign trail in Central province on Mudavadis behalf. Anything short of that will not suffice for Uhuru is not the only presidential candidate in that province nor does he own “his people” the way he claims.

          There is no way on earth that the people of Central province would jump Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth or any other kikuyu presidential candidate in favor of Mudavadi if Uhuru does not put heart, mind and money in campaigning for him. And even so, the other candidates will get a good share of votes from the same province and that alone will kill Mudavadi`s walk to state house. We are talking of a province known for not voting for anyone else but one of their own. So what is it that Mudavadi has that no one else has ever had? Try nothing.

          The only way for success, which I guess is also a distant shot is for Mudavadi to become Uhurus running mate. They might go far but the Rift valley votes will immediately fall into ODM hands and that will be the end of Uhuru and Mudavadi.

          It does not matter how one slices and dices the so called Uhuru–Mudavadi alliance, the math simply does not add up.


    • adongo, mzee

      the sad thing is this, all the G7 group know that this marriage of convenience no matter which permutation is used, will not work. each and every one of them knows that the only way it works is when each one of them is president otherwise everything else will flop.

      so they cheat each other that they have the magic winning formula/combination. what i don’t get is why their supporters are still clinging on boat that capsized as soon as it left shore. and they are hanging on like there’s no tomorrow.

      these supporters have been so hoodwinked it would make the cult figures of 70’s green with envy.


      • tnk,

        Ruto made his bed and he will have to chill on it even without any sleep. He can take sleeping pills to help him. He went to the Kalenjins and told them he is running for the presidency knowing very well he has no chance in hell of winning it. Now folks are hearing about deals where Ruto has already auctioned them like cheap mitumba clothes. People don’t like that and it matters little whether Ruto is negotiating with Uhuru or Raila.

        To make matters worse for Ruto, it is now obvious that Kikuyu folks hate him with a passion. Uhuru told him to his face that “my people cannot vote for you” or something to that effect. Uhuru told him he as Uhuru Kenyatta and his family can vote for Ruto but not “Uhuru’s people”. That is a pretty damning rebuke. So when Kalenjin folks wake up and see news about Ruto having sold them to the same Uhuru it looks obvious to them that the relationship Ruto want to build with Uhuru must first of all place Kalenjins in the position of second class citizens. That is the only place the Kikuyu elites have for Kalenjins.That is hard to sell when there are so many outstanding issues.

        As the tribal chieftains hustle in the market place to sell their products (people/voters) they should remember Kenyans are watching every move they make and even those tribal votes politicians are banking on may be very hard to sell. The tribal vote arithmetic which many politicians have relied on to build their so called alliances is not guaranteed. There are so many factors in play including the ICC manenos and the tribal magicians may end up with nightmares when their subjects and products start running from the shelves before the sale is done.

        Matters on the ground are infinitely complex:

        Here is the heat Ruto is getting from mashinani and standard story had even a longer version of the makelele on Kass fm rejecting Ruto’s sale of his community to the highest bidder.

        Here we go:


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