Will The New UDF Spin Doctor Save Musalia’s Dwindling Fortunes?

To save plummeting ratings and the possibility of a defeat by ODM’s Raila Odinga at the elections, the powers that be which handed Mudavadi the UDF party have now hired long time political commentator and Sunday Nation columnist Mutahi Ngunyi as communications advisor to Musalia Mudavadi.

See this link and this link for more information.

On his part, Mutahi has embarked on a recruitment exercise and has invited CVs from a team of jounalists to work with on this state-house sanctioned project. According to Mutahi, and going by all his recent comments, Ruto and Uhuru will definitely not be cleared to run for president and will not appear on the ballot paper. They, however, will play role of kingmakers and Mutahi’s role is to basically convince the GEMA nation to vote for Mudavadi enmass. The calculation here is that with Kibaki’s endorsement plus the Luhya uniting behind him (hence the Atwoli role), Mudavadi will whitewash Raila Odinga in a two horse race that they intend to wrap up in the first round.

Kalonzo is upset about this arrangements. The ground in RV is upping the pressure on Ruto not to go back where they removed him. But perhaps the most affected by this is Uhuru Kenyatta who has ordered that Mutahi Ngunyi no longer be given airtime at the K24 station because his comments are making the GEMA nation have second thoughts about the TNA gravy train.

Many alliances are being crafted and my sense is that this election may well be finished in the first round.

The ODM is currently keeping cards close and only the Kalenjin angle is being publicized as a way of sabotaging it before it happens. Ruto is caught between a rock and a hard place because he had already given his word to Uhuru and Mama Ngina (grapevine says in exchange for a huge amount of money). Aside from this, his people are demanding that he either runs, or if not running direct his support at a candidate most likely to accept his nominee for running mate and also most likely to implement land reforms that his people so much need in Rift Valley. Kalonzo is also under similar pressure to ditch the moribund G7.

It looks good for ODM unless they mess it up.

By Cont-ED Posted in kenya

5 comments on “Will The New UDF Spin Doctor Save Musalia’s Dwindling Fortunes?

  1. mzee, phil

    you guys are right.

    one thing we must remember however is that mutahi ngunyi is not so much of an analyst as people like to think. he is however, a shrewd and cunning strategist like maliyamungu for idi amin, rasputin in russia etc. he is a guy that understands power, and the ability to squeeze past, i.e the end justifying the means. no scruples at all.

    the question is how are they going to execute another civilian coup? because they will do everything in their power to get their man at statehouse.


    • Already, Uhuru has finalised a deal with New Ford-K, and is on is way to finalising one with Ngilu’s NARC.

      Jirongo and Wetangula have disowned the purported unity talks fronted by a hired Atwoli, and Mudavadi is now threatening to mobilize Luhya Elders to cast a curse on whoever refuses Luhya unity (read rally behind him). Never mind the same elders already categorically said a vote for any Luhya presidential candidate is a wasted vote because none of them can attract substantive support from other regions to propel them to state house.

      Jirongo has gone further an said “Federal Party has any intent whatsoever to be party to ongoing TNA-NFK coalition discussions. and added philosophically that – Too often the shortcut, the line of least resistance, is responsible for political mediocrity and endings filled with un-fulfilled potential – an obvious inference to the outright purchase of Eugene Wamalwa by Uhuru Kenyatta.

      These developments leave Team Mudavadi in a very tight spot and desperate to craft a worthwhile deal of their own. Ruto kept this guy waiting at a hotel for hours on end, while enjoy breakfast with Joe Nyagah. Ruto also ignored Kalonzo at Wilson this past weekend. Ruto si no longer holding rallies and is avoiding the press. The pressure from the ground is building.

      Mutahi will be paid to spin all manner of propaganda against Uhuru and Raila because these are the only two people standing between Mudavadi and state house.

      Kalonzo is still praying Uhuru will tosha him and that G7 will rally behind him. They appear to prefer Wamalwa more than any other person.

      Let’s wait and see what kind of agreements these parties will come up with.


      • phil

        i think project uhuru II is one of the most dangerous runaway train ever. this is a family (kenyatta) whose very existence is threatened and whose survival depends entirely on him being president and no less. its no brainer therefore that he first started by mobilising his ethnic base (GEMA) and moving on to add whatever he can collect. he cannot turn back. once he bags a tribe or candidate any turn around or rival is labeled the usual 41 vs 1 story. its one of those they can use but you cant else its labeled hate speech. there is simply no other agenda or vision for TNA but to make uhuru president by any means necessary.

        ruto, his RV support, and all those other jokers in G7 have come to this realisation very late in the day. supporters of these remaining Gx candidates are more sober than the candidates. problem is they already poisoned the support base and therefore rational decision will be hard to come by.

        uhuru’s undoing will be the very same 41 vs 1 spin. they will try to bulldoze the election but its going to backfire thats for sure. i highyl doubt that ngilu will be totally swallowed by TNA. all it needs is a for a few hardcore reformists to stand their ground and the TNA wave will be stopped. right now, TNA is generating or creating a false euphoria using media hype and making people believe that TNA is popular, but there will come a time for the rubber to meet the road.

        the question is whether the crowded candidates space is sufficient enough to derail the will of the people.

        for ODM to succeed, they need (like obama) to formulate and articulate a handful of key issues and then stick with them and push them through.


      • phil

        anyone that has worked with the kenyatta family knows these guys to be stingy. they may throw a few notes here and there, but they do not provide large sums of money to any enterprise (at least not from their own resources). sure, UK is in lots of trouble, but i doubt money is what they have given ruto. their operation at best is quid pro quo, some large business interest (probably potential rather than actual), ruto is naive enough to swallow that bait and i think thats why he finds it hard to convince his support base because if it was cash, he would have had to dispense with some to appease at least some of his followers.

        contrast that with kisumu instant chaos which appears to be cash motivated.

        ruto is trying to be too smart i.e negotiate business leverage perhaps a stake in some venture but this cannot trickle down effectively to his rabid support base and certainly not to his lieutenants because doing so would expose him or easily lose clout as a deputy can easily run off with the proceeds (mafia business is cut-throat in high stakes games)

        you are right in that a commitment (signed in blood) has been made, but i don’t think he has liquid capital to pull it off (his dilemma) he has to pull it off by selling hot air, he is capable, but the repercussions will be fatal, and he can no longer use RAO for scapegoat. its dicey. thats what i think


  2. Uhuru and Kibaki have created a monster they cannot hold by the tail forever. When they peeled away Ruto from ODM then Musalia Mudavadi, the calculation was that, not only the two were finished but Raila was also done for. The path was a clear as the sun for Uhuru and no one was going to stop his walk to the state house. Then they roped in the gullible Kajudas who was immediately put on the back banner never to be heard of again. All this was meant to completely isolate RAO. But the more they calculate the more they realize that ODM will not be easy to beat even with all the above. The ground in the former RVP has shifted immensely and the Uhuruto unity is no more. The Mudavadi thing will only pay dividends if everybody else is anti-RAO as Uhuru. Truth be told, RAO enjoys support in majority of the counties so, he will be the man to beat. I hope that ODM conducts fair and transparent nominations.


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