Ruto and Uhuru = True?

Kenyan newspapers are best known for adding “salt” to stories and this could be one of them. But should it turn out to be true then it should come as a blessing to the republic of Kenya. Kenyans have a chance of dealing these murderers a fatal blow once and for all. Read on…

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By Standard Reporters

NAIROBI, KENYA: United Republican Party presidential aspirant William Ruto is sitting on a secret his party colleagues won’t let him disclose.

That is what happened yesterday at a URP press conference when the leaders led by party chairman Francis ole Kaparo just wouldn’t let Ruto, whose word journalists wanted to hear on the carrot dangled before him by Prime Minister Raila Odinga, take the microphone. But what exactly is it that URP leaders would not want to let out? Sources in the party say it is that a deal has been struck with Uhuru Kenyatta’s The National Alliance to fight for president on a common platform in the March 4 elections.

But what also emerged was that Ruto is keen to first ensure that he wins his Kalenjin community to Uhuru’s side before the deal is unmasked.

Party sources say Ruto playing second fiddle to Uhuru won’t go well with his community, and that is why they first need to prepare the electorate to buy in the idea that since both leaders face the same fate at The Hague, it is prudent they put up a joint assault.

However, from our enquiries, there is a slight problem: Raila’s meeting with a section of Kalenjin and Maasai leaders in Nakuru on Monday where statements to the effect that Uhuru can’t be trusted and Raila could be a safer bet for the community is what is said to have unsettled Ruto and his team.

This also led to the resolve that the deal is kept guarded until an opportune time when sufficient ‘marketing’ for it would have been done in areas where URP considers its strongholds.

The second factor is said to be curiosity by Ruto’s team on what deal Uhuru and Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa’s New Ford-Kenya would sign tomorrow. Wamalwa was the first to be touted as Uhuru’s running mate and indeed played a crucial role during the launch of his TNA.

It is the contest for Rift Valley with Raila, who sources in ODM reveal has given up on Ruto and is keen on directly engaging the Kalenjin community that takes the two rivals to the province for heated campaigns.

Even though Raila had attempted to reach out to URP aspirant for a pre-election pact, statements by Ruto and Uhuru’s allies suggest the deal between the two is done.

“The deal is almost done. We are just fine-tuning the details before we officially sign the agreement. We want to make sure that everything is tight so that we are not short-changed once we form the government,” said an MP, who is a top URP official yesterday after the party meeting.

On Monday Cabinet Minister Naomi Shaban, who is a mutual friend of both leaders, declared Ruto would be Uhuru’s running mate.

Dr Shaban announced it was almost clear Uhuru would be seeking the presidency, while Ruto would be his running mate, as they face off with Raila.

In response to the unfolding scenario, Raila has decided to reach the Kalenjin like he did in early 2007. Ruto backed Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, but when it became clear to him Raila was more popular in the Rift Valley, he changed tact.

Raila will be in Eldoret, the bedrock of Ruto’s political support as a follow-up of the meeting he had this week with a section of Kalenjin leaders in Nakuru, drawn from six counties in the South and Central Rift.

But as Raila prepares to go to Ruto’s base, URP yesterday declared a series of rallies spread over four days in the Rift Valley. Organisers privately concede the rallies are meant to reverse whatever gains Raila may have got, as well as calming the communities there over the suspicion, which Uhuru-Ruto alliance has stirred.

The URP team made sure its rallies end on Monday, when Raila gets into Eldoret, and are believed to be also called to divert attention from the PM’s apology to the Kalenjin community for perceived ills against them.

The rallies by both sides of the supremacy war in Rift region occupied by the Kalenjin, which in 2007 voted Raila almost to a man, is also spiced by the fact that whereas Ruto is perceived to be the de facto leader, the emerging possibility that he won’t be running for president, has re-opened the community’s vote-basket for other aspirants.

In Nakuru the elders Raila met explicitly asked him to continue talks with Ruto, with a rider that if he did not play along, then he gets back to them. It was not specified what would then follow even though they openly declared they prefer a deal with PM than with “those people from Mount Kenya’’.

“Ruto has made up his mind, but from the sentiments of the elders in Nakuru, he, too, will have to put up a fight to get his community to support Uhuru. That is why Raila has decided to engage the voters from this region directly at the grassroots, and through opinion leaders such as the elders he met,’’ revealed a source within Raila campaign team.

“On Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday we will be in the Rift Valley. We shall pitch tent in various regions, including Nandi and Kericho,” announced Dujis MP Aden Duale.

An attempt by journalists to get Ruto’s comments on Raila’s apology to the Kalenjin community and his willingness for a reunion with him was resisted by Kaparo, Environment Minister, Chirau Ali Mwakere, and Duale.

Ruto left without uttering a word as the MPs exchanged words with journalists who insisted he had to comment. “What the Prime Minister said in Nakuru was directed to a community and URP is not a community, it is a national political party,” maintained Duale.

Kaparo and Mwakere insisted Ruto was a leader of ‘a mass movement’ and would not be reduced to an ethnic spokesman.

During the meeting Information Minister Samwel Poghisio officially left Wiper Democratic Movement for URP. The leaders also received a number of ODM councillors from Garisa County.

However, Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto who arrived for the National Executive Committee meeting after the charged press conference maintained they would not be enticed by Raila’s apology.

He laughed it off as a political gimmick meant to woo back the Kalenjin vote.

Isaac Ruto insisted Raila could not be trusted with the presidency, and challenged him to back either Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi or Ruto for president.

Yesterday, the URP leaders infuriated by constitutional commissions closing ranks to vet candidates despite Parliament having removed this requirement warned those behind the initiative of the folly of assigning themselves new roles.

“There is nowhere in the Constitution that brings together amalgamation of commissions. So if they are creating an amorphous body of different commissions, then as a party that believes in the rule of law, we are saying you are bringing a culture of impunity,” said Dualle.

http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000069680&story_title=Kenya-Presidential-race-hots-up

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25 comments on “Ruto and Uhuru = True?

  1. have had time to read the different statements attributed to ruto and his gang

    its very clear that ruto has stepped down and will be uhuru’s running mate. there is no turning back

    what ruto wants is time to craft his spin and sell it to a majority in the rift. this is a done deal

    for ruto politically he simply has run out of choices and this is his one and only lifeline. period.

    the question is whether his limited options are equal to and supersede those of the community or whether its vice-versa and that a true leader would carefully study the options and then come to the conclusion that the community’s interest far diminish that of an individual and then step aside to let another leader with far more better prospects to lead the community to a path of greater prosperity rather than a poorly negotiated deal that simply has no guarantee but represents a tremendous risk.

    simply put, if this succeeds Ruto shines, if it flops, his community will bear the blame and brunt of the shame (no pun intended)

    this is a very self centered (typical of politicians) decision and has nothing to do with the well being of the community. what a pity

    • Tnk,
      You are right. Ruto has been kicked in the ass by Uhuru Kenyatta and asked to “fuata nyayo” or go to hell. He has simply swallowed his pride and accepted the number two slot. He can either choose to go it alone and loose spectacularly or sit behind Uhuru and hope that they pull it through. At any rate the calculation is that if half of the kalenjin nation is against his collaboration with Uhuru in round one, things will change in the second round. His handlers believe that come round two the whole kalenjin nation will follow him into Uhurus camp. They also believe that even though Kalonzo and Mudavadi are not with them now, they can definitely lure them back in round two. These guys are either going to be heroes or zeros come March 2013.

      • http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-97536/icc-about-entrenching-rule-law-accountability

        Excerpt from this article shellacking wannabe President Uhuru Kenyatta!

        Prof Makau Mutua, Maina Kiai, George Kegoro, Ndung’u Wainaina, John Githongo, Muthoni Wanyeki, Paul Muite, Hassan Omar among others have firm convictions, and values they stand for.

        These are outstanding human rights defenders and professionals in their own right. They have vigorously defended credibility and reputation of their motherland and repudiated attempts at demeaning and bringing Kenya’s image into disrepute.

        My memory fails me not. Uhuru Kenyatta has never been part of democratic transformation of Kenya. He has never stood for and advocated for a just society.

        He belonged to the despotic regime of Moi and Kanu enjoying the privilege, glamour and warmth of State House since his birth. Earlier he had been noted at the formation of Democratic Party.

        Uhuru was handpicked and nominated by Moi as MP and shortly elevated as Minister for Local Government. Mark Too was bitterly forced to relinquish his seat for Uhuru.

        Indeed Uhuru tried initially to unsuccessfully to vie for Gatundu South seat (he later won). Moi further made Uhuru, a presidential candidate project.

        It must be understood very well that we are not opposing the individual Uhuru Kenyatta, but the watershed effects of any such a person ascending to the pivotal position of the presidency and its real effects on the domestic interests as it comes into interplay with the international relations. Kenya deserves the right leadership, policies, institutions and politics.

        Rule of law is pivotal to inclusive development. The benefits of rule of law adhering country would be indicated by the following: enhanced certainty, predictability and security; restricted discretion of government officials including reduced willfulness and arbitrariness; maintained peaceful social order through legal norms; economic development based on existence of certainty, predictability and security; and fundamental justice is realized equally as law is applied equally to everyone citizen and in accordance with its terms.

        Uhuru’s presidency may be a good idea in ordinary circumstances. But under the current circumstances, it is a long shot deep in the sea.

        The fate of Kenya cannot be tied to an individual. He must back off and let Kenya match forward. Kenya is not a private enterprise. It is a country of 40 million people with equal rights and liberties anchored on core national values of Article 10 of the Kenyan Constitution.

        Further, such a presidency would recreate the big-man’s syndrome and police-militarised state for its survival. It is irresponsible and selfish to engage in political bankruptcy of ethno-nationalism and tie the country to such retrogressive politics.

        If you are a believer in democratic practice and norms why destroy political tolerance and pluralism in your backyard? This is political demagoguery and tyranny. It has no place in the society that gallant Kenyans are working hard to shape and build.

        Uhuru had an opportunity to be official leader of opposition. He, however, found it politically convenient, to abandon that office to play ethnic politics.

        This is despite his earlier dismissal of Mwai Kibaki as hands-off president. This makes one to query whether Uhuru has ever had a consistent position on anything.

        Therefore, accusations against human rights defenders are ludicrous and full of amnesia. History never lies. That is why Uhuru shivers whenever historical facts are unveiled.

        I strongly support ICC for it fills a crucial vacuum. ICC is about defending the rule of law and promoting accountability as a future deterrence.

        ….continue in the article linked above.

      • Job,

        Here is Ruto repeating exactly what we have been saying all along. This alliance of the accused is all about saving Ruto and Uhuru from The Hague. Those are Ruto’s own words:

        http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Inside-Uhuru-Ruto-deal-/-/1064/1632476/-/hun9faz/-/index.html:

        And then the tribal math of adding Kikuyus to Kalenjins votes and bingo you are laughing all the way to State House. Again those are Ruto’s own words. These guys have presented Kenyans with an excellent gift.

        For once we can slay impunity and tribalism with just one sledgehammer, namely saving the country from those who do not give a damn about the nation and are obsessed with their own plight which incidentally rotates around mass murder and rape of Kenyans.

        This was the Moi ticket of 2002 and were beat. Who would have known that it will take another 10 years to actually get a chance to sweep the filth these amigos actually represent. And who would have imagined that they would be tied to hip by crimes against humanity something they got into their DNA from the Moi era. This election may end up more exciting than anybody ever imagined. I don’t know what Moi thinks about this but his twin boys who did so much for him are going to go down in a furious fire they have set on themselves.

      • wanted to have this video clip somewhere in here, since we will be coming back to discuss this in detail in a few days

      • tnk,

        As you wait to discuss the video here is what we know and it is interesting. The Integrity case against Uhuru and Ruto has been dropped by the applicants. That was obviously going to be the case when the applicants were arguing so hard against their own case unless the names of Raila etc were included. I was asking myself why don’t these guys just drop the case and felt come the hearing day they will drop it. That just happened.

        Here is the story:

        http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Uhuru-and-Ruto-integrity-case-dropped-/-/1064/1632646/-/bukj8vz/-/index.html

        On the surface it looks like good news for Uhuru and Ruto, but in the larger scheme of things it is terrible news for them. That is why politics is a complex business. Politicians often do a lot of things to help themselves today and end up being killed by the same thing they did yesterday.

        Personally I have never liked this case. I thought it was prematurely filed. Also it was very poorly framed and the kind of lawyers here inspired absolutely no confidence. Obviously the case was filed by very vulnerable people and it would have been disastrous if because of their prematurely and poorly argued case the other side won and set up some precedence. I am therefore glad that it has been dropped. The group wants to file another case but it will be useless and will have been overtaken by events.

        My arguement all along has been that you can not file a case to bar someone from contesting an elective office. Teh constitution does not allow that. That was doomed to fail.

        You are better off filing a case to bar someone from holding an office and you cannot do that based on speculation or newspaper reports that so and so wants to run for this or that office. The indicted chaps have not even been nominated to run for those offices. A more serious case should be filed after the nominations and I trust the genuine and respected human rights and civil society groups will do that. I will touch base with some of the people I know who are in the know.

        Secondly if such acase filed after nomination the applicants should seek a court order on whether any individual who is facing judges on crimes against humanity fails the integrity test to hold the highest office in the land. In other words the courts should be asked to determine whether an individual can be the president of the republic of Kenya while at the same time facing a full trial at The Hague. That is the crux of the matter.

        Third, the pillar to such an application should lie on the conflict of interest clauses which are clearly spelt out in Chapter Six of our constitution. The question is whether a president of Kenya facing trial at The Hague for crimes against humanity would compromise the interests of the country to serve their own personal interests. That leads directly to the issue of any president forcing Kenya into the status of a pariah state obviously not to serve the country but to protect themselves.

        The applicants will have to argue that it is obviously not possible for any president of the republic of Kenya to be facing trial at The Hague at the same time. The ICC requirements and the specific terms of the “bail” given to our suspects are clear that one has to be physically at the trial at all times and all evidence show that trials at The Hague take an average of four years. So it is obvious that if you can’t be at The Hague defending yourself an arrest warrant would be issued against you and that is a direct route to take Kenya to a pariah.

        This is the argument we should have in court not this lame excuses of bringing every other name and turning the argument into some political football that the current applicants were trying to do. They were going to lose that whole thing and I am glad they have pulled out to play politics.

        This is a serious case and it should be taken up by serious civil society groups and not opportunists looking for god knows what. That is where this case is headed and it will go all the way to the Supreme Court and the ruling will be clear. If you are facing charges at The Hague you will not be the president of the republic of Kenya. Period.

        Now the politics. Uhuru and Ruto needed to get a hint of their fate to decide now if they would rather support somebody else. With the cases now back to square one that will not happen. In other words Uhuru and Ruto must go on in complete blindness. It looks good now but when the blind fold is removed it will be too late and there will be no optiosn left. I f I aam Uhuru I wnat know where to go now rather than later.

        Secondly the idea/hope of tricking Mudavadi or Kalonzo to join the coalition of the accused now with the promise that if the indicted chaps are barred Mudavadi and Kalonzo will hold the ticket is now gone. The verdict wherever it comes will come late and Kalonzo and Mudavadi have to decide by Dec. 3, 2012.

        So the ruling on this matter will come in the thick of things probably before the March 4 election or before the run off. It may very well just leave one candidate standing when read in its totality. Uhuru and Ruto may very well end up handing over the presidency to the very man they have fought for the better part of the last three years. Watch this space.

    • Adongo, tnk et al.,

      The ticket to pariahdom has officially been formed. The ICC-accused duo are probably imagining its a sealed deal. Ruto is confidently stating they are winning this thing in the first round….Not so fast amigos…there’s a three month campaign period in between…and there’s DEFINITELY going to be a run-off.

      That’s where Kenyans will have a clear choice between impunity/pariahdom or not…it is coming folks…just as we anticipated!

      Majority Kenyans will easily see behind the veil…and guess what….the ICC cases shall have started during the run-offs. The choice will be as stark as day and night.

      On the URP side, Ruto is probably hoping none of the other major contenders picks a Kalenjin running mate. He may be daydreaming…you can take this to the bank…the Kalenjin will be given the option of picking from more than one running mate in the very first round…Besides the toxic ticket…there will be another (or other) cleaner choice(s) for the Kale.

      Isn’t this what we have expected all along…Ruto’s pretentious run for President was just a ploy to hoodwink the Kale…but he won’t be able to flog all Kale to vote for Uhuru…especially in large swathes of South Rift (Nakuru, Kuresoi, Rongai) and North Rift (Eldoret)…again take this to the bank.

      • Job,
        You are right when you say that this thing is going to the second round. The toxic ticket cannot win the elections in round one whatever calculations they make. Its just the usual empty talk from Ruto.

        One thing I know is that ODM will probably go it alone. I don’t see the deal with Kalonzo going through. The man is too difficult to deal with as he is the kind who would rather see his opponents get beaten than himself win. Besides he believes in wheeling and dealing behind the scenes and being handed stuff on a silver platter. It’s this attitude that saw him join Kibaki at the height of PEV and I bet you it’s the same reason he is being shunned by the G7 aka KKK. The man is a double edged sword who cannot walk the talk.

        ODM has to get a good running mate to increase its chances in round two. I know that they will.

  2. The deal is in. The duo = true
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    Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto have struck a pre-election coalition deal that will see them contest the presidency on a joint ticket.

    Mr Kenyatta’s spokesman Munyori Buku said that the deal will be unveiled on Sunday, at a rally to be held at the Afraha Open Grounds in Nakuru at 2pm.

    “The two leaders have agreed on an alliance whose goals will be national unity, prosperity for all Kenyans, reconciliation and offers a definite and clear roadmap of making Kenya an economic powerhouse in the region, Africa and the world in the next decade,” Mr Buku said in a statement Tuesday.

    He said a team from the two parties- The National Alliance (TNA) and the United Republican Party (URP)- is working on the programme and plans for the Sunday rally which will include two caravans – one starting at Kinungi near Naivasha and the other at Kuresoi – that will converge in Nakuru.

    “Many other like-minded party leaders, MPs, aspirants for various seats, councillors and religious, business, women, youth, cooperatives, union, farmers and civil society leaders have been invited and will be present,” Mr Buku said.

    In another development, TNA has dismissed claims that the deal with Mr Ruto’s URP will result in zoning the country.

    TNA secretary general Onyango Oloo said Tuesday that TNA and URP will field candidates in all areas. He said the TNA-URP coalition deal is not crafted in a manner that denies voters the right to elect leaders of their choice.

    “As a party we do not support any kind of zoning of the country. Any coalition that we enter into will be made at the level of the presidency. We have also not distributed any government positions whether at Cabinet, parastatal or ambassadorial level. This we see as propaganda from our competitors,” Mr Oloo told the Nation.

    He said TNA and its partners would after forming government evaluate how much votes and seats each partner brought after the elections before filing up the various positions. Mr Oloo said TNA was also seeking political partners who share in the same values.

    “Before we partner with you and form government with you after the elections, you must demonstrate the value you bring in terms of the seats and votes your party can get. You must also share in our ideals and principles,” Mr Oloo said.

    There have been reports that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto’s teams are yet to agree on how to field candidates under the coalition.

    However, the Nation has established that the two agreed on Saturday that their parties remain independent but have a common name and symbol for their joint presidential ticket.

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Uhuru-announces-Ruto-coalition-deal-/-/1064/1630190/-/nju8j5/-/index.html

    • Mambo bado @Mzee.

      I am really enjoying the Uhuruto circus. Ruto is reportedly upset with Uhuru camp for premaurely announcing deal while he has spent the whole day unsuccessfully trying to convince 500 kalenjin elders to back the pre-election deal with TNA.

      These statementS were released in succession by Uhuru camp.

      It is now becoming a big joke!
      IST STATEMENT:
      UHURU-RUTO DEAL

      Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto have a Pre-Election deal.

      The deal will be unveiled on Sunday, December 2, 2012 at the Afraha Open Grounds, Nakuru at 2pm.

      The two leaders have agreed on an alliance whose goals will be national unity, prosperity for all Kenyans, reconciliation and offers a definite and clear roadmap of making Kenya an economic powerhouse in the region, Africa and the world in the next decade.

      A team from the two parties is working on the programme and plans for the day. Two caravans – one starting at Kinungi near Naivasha and the other at Kuresoi – will start the journey to Nakuru.

      Many other like-minded party leaders, MPs, aspirants for various seats, councillors and religious, business, women, youth, cooperative , union, farmers and civil society leaders have been invited and will be present.

      Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto are the first political leaders to clinch a pre-election deal and to make it public.

      IT’S A DEAL.

      MUNYORI BUKU
      DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS
      OFFICE OF DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER UHURU KENYATTA.

      ++++++++++++++++++++++++@@@@@@@++++++++++++

      2ND STATEMENT
      NO PRE-ELECTION DEAL AGREED BETWEEN UHURU AND RUTO

      I want to clarify that the earlier statement that the Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North Mp William Ruto have reached a deal was inaccurate.

      The fact is that negotiations are still going on and when a deal is reached, it will be the prerogative of the party principals to announce it.

      However, the joint rally at the Afraha Grounds, Nakuru, will be held on Sunday, December 2, 2012 as earlier communicated and details of the arrangements will be announced later.

      I apologize for the earlier communication.

      Munyori Buku,

      Director of Communications,

      Office of DPM.

      • these games seem all too familiar – ruto once again, being played by the kenyatta camp right before our eyes.

      • Deal or no deal? Looks like its the deal that never was. It’s a ‘deal’ to be kept in secret for possible denial in future. Trying to build a castle on sand can be quite tedious and frustrating. It can never hold.

        When one partner wants a deal kept secret…while the other is proud to announce it…that’s the red flag of deception right there. It’s like the bridegroom (Uhuru) who is happy to publicly proclaim marriage while the bride (Ruto) is upset and wants to hush it.

        This is the marriage that never was. Jamii wamekataa kata kata and the bride is now sita sitaring…

        The electoral calendar’s deadline for pre-election coalitions is already starring them at the face, the joint rally at Nakuru has been called, but Ruto’s feet are being held on coal by the Kalenjin wazee. The guy is obviously stuck between a rock and a hard place.

        These wazees are asking Ruto…what the heck happened to your brain…they’re reminding him that the fella he is following blindly is sitting on 500,000 acres of mugunda…much of which is theirs…The wazee are telling Ruto that TNA has already zoned Nakuru county and Kajiado county into their political bags…with an extra pick of Rongai constituency.

        Neither are the Wazee in South Rift (Nakuru/Kuresoi) or North Rift (Eldoret) buying this mirage…they all see folly in Ruto’s belief he will (as VP) even be given a chance to pick one ambassador, leave alone Minister. Every Tom, Dick and Harry knows that is a freaking joke!

        But these wazee have also sensed the country is not in the mood to elect not just another duo of Kikuyu and Kalenjin who have ruled Kenya for the last 50 years; but 2 that are facing serious criminal charges at the ICC. The wazee have heard whispers Kenyans are not going to elect themselves into pariah status. Not happening!!!!

        I pray that Ruto does what he does best…defying these wazee…and going in as Uhuru’s running mate. I seriously want this Uhuruto ticket in the ballot…it must be beaten fairly and squarely…yaani decisively! The joke has been extended too far…it’s time to get back to reality.

      • Job & others,

        We need this deal done mara moja so that Kenyans can throw out these guys at the polls. They will. Kenyans will not accept the pariah state that Uhuru and Ruto want to protect themselves. Put these guys in one basket and lets get this over with come march 2013. Bring on the deal and Kenyans will send you to The Hague. Of that I am sure.

        And then we have this other news which is exactly what we expected. IEBC as we said many months ago is too confused and incompetent to figure out the diaspora voting system. That has been my sense of the situation from day one. It has come to pass. These folks have to start with the understanding that the Kenya diaspora does not exist in the US alone. We will fix this later.

        Here is what I amtalking about.

        http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000071617&story_title=Kenya-Kenyan-voters-in-Diaspora-locked-out

      • this is all too obvious

        TNA team is made up of youthful technocrats and these are the guys calling the shots so to speak. they have what they believe is big money backing their strategies

        they may be smart and savvy but they are not seasoned politicians. the deals being crafted, are “brilliant” board room executive decisions.

        URP on the other hand is made up of both seasoned as well as one time politicians some of whom have tasted cabinet power and right now face the dilemna and the awkward position of play it right and win or lose it all. no fall back plan.

        TNA on the other hand will ride the coattails (and moneybags) of uhuru and one way or another are assured of getting something substantial.

        awkward!!!

        one side is comfortable whatever the outcome, whereas the other is on shaky ground. how else can you explain someone that according to their ethnic math will “bring in” a purported 2.5m votes getting 50% (and still wanting more) share, while the other who single handedly “brings in” a purported 6m votes is supposed to share with the remaining 50% with those who “bring in” 2m and 1.5m votes. why wont TNA focus more on the latter who would be more willing and more malleable.

        this fuzzy math as mzee pointed out earlier, starts to get very complicated when you start applying real politik against statistical imagery and illusion.

        whats more, we have seen MPs turn against principals when faced with complex scenarios e.g dont be vague etc. therefore one cannot safely guarantee any of the posts being “promised”. for instance lets say eugene has been promised SNA, what happens when he misses the boat entirely and does not get elected? will his NFK rep inherit the SNA or does it revert back to TNA for re-allocation?

        lets face it – the only way this TNA/URP coalition works is that Uhuru and Ruto get leadership of the country, and then revert to dictatorship so that they can force through undemocratically whatever power sharing engagement the two of them have, and then shove their ICC characteristics and shackles down kenyans throats

        it is what it is

        this waffling eti mara there is a deal mara there is not is only on one side of the equation, ruto’s. period. the TNA camp is all ready, they are confident like kibaki of changing MOUs down the road once they have secured a win. its URP that has the headache of convincing their supporters to accept going blindfold into agreements they know will not be honored.

        URP is asking supporters to do the same thing over and over, expecting different outcome. that is why the wise ones have spoken and said,

        this time “achicha wendi kityo”

  3. It is getting trickier by the day.

    Ruto must defect to URP from ODM if any pre-election coalition is to be signed between him/URP with TNA.

    Ruto must also defect to TNA if and when he resolves that he will be Uhuru Kenyatta’s running mate.

    And there are deadlines to make such decisions.

    And there are unwilling voters to persuade for this unbankable project.

  4. Just a little reminder from the past.

    Ruto: Why I prefer The Hague route

    Agriculture minister William Ruto wants the secret envelope containing names of the post-election violence suspects handed over to the International Criminal Court at The Hague without further delay.

    Mr Ruto says the two-month period given by former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan to Kenya to make a new attempt at setting up a local tribunal to try the suspects was unnecessary.

    “Kofi Annan should hand over the envelope that contains names of suspects to the International Criminal Court at The Hague so that proper investigations can start,” Mr Ruto said. “Mr Annan should allow us to move forward. We cannot just get stuck in one place addressing the same thing.”

    Mr Ruto’s latest stand contradicts the position of Prime Minister Raila Odinga, leader of his ODM party, who prefers a local tribunal.

    A government motion to set up a special local tribunal was defeated in Parliament earlier this month, raising the possibility that suspects whose names were given to Mr Annan in a sealed envelope by the Waki Commssion could be taken to The Hague for trial.

    The Hague option was to be activated should Kenya fail to establish a local tribunal as proposed by the commission that investigated the post-election violence………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

    And speaking in Sotik on Saturday, Mr Ruto faulted the Waki Commission’s post-election violence report yet again, saying it was “full of rumours and hearsay”.

    He said it was misleading for the report to state that the violence had no relation with the announcement of the presidential results.

    The minister alleged that the Waki report targeted those who complained about the outcome of the last General Election while leaving out those who he claimed engineered an alleged electoral fraud.

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/-/1056/533390/-/u2h24m/-/index.html

    • einstein,

      These people still don’t get it this late in the quagmire. You can use the Hague as a political tool all you want but it still doesn’t change anything. They still think this is about fighting Raila. Poor folks. Raila did not say anything we all don’t know already including Mr. Ruto who had promised to run the country from somewhere in The Hague. But of course anything to pile mud on Raila gets a lot of people a lot of work for the day. Trouble is it changes absolutely nothing. That is just a fact.

      Ruto, as einstein’s blast from the past here, shows demanded the Hague option with the same bravado and machismo as he now uses while shitting bricks in his diatribe against The Hague. The irony!

      Ruto mobilized his herd of M.Ps to reject the local tribunal the same way he and Uhuru now have the herd mouthing off about Raila and The Hague. Ati Raila wanted Ruto to be in the gallows at The Hague. No Mr. Ruto they don’t hang convicted criminals there. Even Lubanga and Taylor are still there running their countries via laptops and cell phones. Take heart. It is what you demanded. Don’t blame Raila after youy got your wish. Ruto and Uhuru wanted the election to be about The Hague. That wish too will be granted. Kenyans are going to think hard and long about which comes first, selfish ambitions of two Hague suspects or their country. That is what you guys are asking for and you are going to get it. sawa?

      Here we go:

      http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Ruto+Uhuru+dismiss+Raila+claim/-/1064/1613288/-/tce5kx/-/index.html

      • Adongo and einstein,
        I think that the Uhuruto thugs thought that they had scared everybody from talking about their Hague case. Its something that they wish Kenyans forgot and they are trying all they can to demonize anybody who even as much as think about The Hague.

        Now, that Raila has mentioned something about The Hague, all guns are blazing in an attempt to silence him. But Raila has realized that these noise makers are not to be taken seriously. He knows that the truth about them has to be told.

        Kenyans have also realized that the lies being told by the Uhuruto thugs must come to an end. Sooner rather than later the thugs will come to the realization that killing, raping and murdering people is not a budge of honor that you carry around with all the pride in the world.

        I hope that ODM will keep up the pressure and bring the Hague issue to the fore. Its disturbing the Kibaki and his toys are intent on gagging Kenyans from talking about the crimes against humanity committed by the Uhuruto gansters. Kenyans will not let it happen.

  5. Ruto’s attempt to auction the Kalenjin vote to Uhuru will backfire badly. In Nakuru alone, TNA seeks to take over the Senate and Governorship, on top of grabbing the Rongai parliamentary seat. Many IDPs have been settled within Nakuru to the chagrin of Kalenjin elders. Folks waiting for the Land Commission to take root in Eldoret (where Murugi is settling more IDPs) reject the idea that Kenya’s biggest land grabbing families (who mercilessly grabbed land from the Kales) enters State House yet again. In Kericho, mothers of missing Kale youth aren’t excited about another PNU/TNA hang onto power. These grassroots issues will soon hit Ruto so hard on his face. Boardroom deals or not, majority of these folks at the grassroots wont vote for TNA, period.

    • Rift Valley elders pledge to stick by Raila

      ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….On Monday Kalenjin elders declared their support for Raila as he continued reaching out to voters in the province. Over 600 elders in Eldoret endorsed the PM for the presidency and dismissed the yet to be signed pact between Eldoret North MP William Ruto and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta.

      During the meeting held at Kenmosa grounds, the elders declared they would lead the Kalenjin Community in parting ways politically with Ruto.

      The Eldoret North MP announced on Sunday that he would forge an alliance with Uhuru for the 2013 General Elections.

      Ruto is already popularising the pact, despite the opposition by the elders who have met Raila twice in a week…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

      http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000070038&story_title=Kenya-Rift-Valley-elders-pledge-to-stick-by-Raila

      • Einstein

        this is the kind of news that gives ruto and uhuru nightmares. as Adongo points out, money is no object and TNA will do their best to buy these elders. i even suggest that they be advised to receive cash handouts but should tell their communities to vote with their brains. logics and truth are difficult to deceive. and the main problem for rift valley has been and will continue to be land reforms / historical injustices and it doesn’t matter how long it takes or what spin their is. Job outlined in his comment above. note also that for the first time Sally Kosgei articulated the humiliation she felt as Kibaki hounded her and fellow compatriots from the community out of office. and we can now add kibaki has totally replaced all of them with guys from his backyard

        now ruto has the task of telling them we can expect more of the same

        but the cool thing – when ruto left ODM he and his brigade have been singing that he is going for nothing but the top post. now the top post is 2nd best, which he was assured of had he stayed in ODM, so why go through all this trouble to just be 2nd best. and this question can also be asked of musalia, why go through all this noise, just to be the number two that you have always been without any effort on your part?

        these kenyan politicians are an amazing lot

      • “but the cool thing – when ruto left ODM he and his brigade have been singing that he is going for nothing but the top post. now the top post is 2nd best, which he was assured of had he stayed in ODM, so why go through all this trouble to just be 2nd best. and this question can also be asked of musalia, why go through all this noise, just to be the number two that you have always been without any effort on your part?”

        Why I ask why too. But I believe that the promise of money did the trick

  6. sounds like the proverbial “putting all the (ICC’s bad) eggs in one basket”. hehehe here is how to read this

    if you are in uhuruto camp:
    the votes for uhuru and votes for ruto are combined to take winner in round 1. this is the popular story doing the rounds

    if you are a realist or pragmatist:
    those who supported the “retaliatory attacks” and cannot vote for ruto, those that support resolution of historical injustice, land issues as well etc i.e cannot vote for uhuru. now these groups have a reasons not to vote for the two hence maximum apathy or revulsion, sending both home in the first round and prepare for the trip to hague and good riddance too. (this is the way i see kenyans voting in a free and fair election i.e accepting reality and moving on, no one is beholden to these two) only way out is for the two in cahoots with incumbency to massively rig the elections or commit electoral fraud.

    hint the smoother the talker, the more likely it is that he is a conman. when the deal is too good……..
    🙂

    • This is a can of worms and those busy with the celebrations complete with victory parade routes being mapped out need to slow down a little. The idea that Ruto will herd every Kalenjin vote to Uhuru is fantasy at best.

      Secondly a situation where the two people facing the most terrible crimes in our history as a country who have gone through a very comprehensive Confirmation Hearing and where judges established that there is sufficient evidence to take them to trial will now run jointly to take over the leadership of our country is frought with all sorts of problems.

      The message we hear from kina Isaac Ruto and the Duales of Kenya is that all these is motivated by the Hague dilemma. This is like laughing at the country with glee. These people are telling the citizens point blank that they are in this to save their asses and if Kenyans are stupid enough to elect them we all have to help them do that. The country has to spend the next five years covering the behind of Uhuru and Ruto and everything else be damned. Ruto even had the nerve to tell the country that he can run the affairs of 40 million Kenyans with a laptop while chilling at The Hague or even if he is in jail. That is the level of contempt these people have for the country and for the laws of the land. They are fooling themselves.

      The thing I find really laughable is the macabre arguments by the Uhuruto lovers that well once Uhuru and Ruto take over(something they seem to be very sure about) they can just pull the country out of ICC, take Kenya to the level of a pariah state and the US and EU will just tolerate that, there would be minimum sanctions and we can just get money from China and life will go on. That is like injecting yourself with a deadly virus and saying well I will find a cure for it. Even mad people don’t do that.

      The idea that we should risk the life of the nation for two people is beyond stupid. It is national suicide. It won’t happen. Chapter Six wouldn’t allow it. And the battle that would follow a situation where we have international fugitives at war with the country is a battle I for one would cherish. May be we need that as a country to cleanse our soul. That is why I think the Uhuruto ticket is good for the country. Let’s deal with this thing once and for all so the country can move forward.

      • I think that the Uhuruto gang having figured out that the Kikuyus would not vote for kalenjins and vis-a-vis, they came up with the idea of forcing the people to vote for the two by putting both on the same ticket. In their plan, the people will vote believing that they are voting for their individual candidates while in essence voting for Uhuru Kenyatta. The very Uhuru Kenyatta who has told William Ruto to his face that the Kikuyu will never vote for him (Ruto). I know that this must have floored Ruto but that he would get up and take it without any complain is a surprise. But these are desperate times, which require desperate measures.

        But this “unity” is what the candidates have wanted all along only that “their people” have always rejected this it. The calculation as tnk has said is based on some fuzzy math. Ruto claims that he can bag all former RVP votes which includes those from masaai`s, turkanas, samburu´s, luhyas, Kisii´s etc. Uhuru on the other hand lays claim to all Kikuyu votes. In this calculation, they have a total of 7 million votes. This they compare to Railas votes, still based on their own fuzzy math, that they put at about 2 million (Nyanza votes). Obviously all other regions are left out because in their twisted logic, they have no votes or those are also theirs for the taking.

        As Adongo has mentioned they will then take over the country and make it a pariah state. If the best case scenario they do believe that the new found oil will save them for it will be used for blackmail. Then the illusion that China is doing a lot for the country and is easier to work with because they don’t question human rights. In fact they will help you trump on those rights if you wish.

        Kenyans will not let these bozos destroy our country. We have investments to protect and we will never ever allow such stupidity, never on earth.

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