The Running Mate Factor In The 2013 General Elections

Now, I find this really interesting. Looks like Mr. 8% can still be relevant in the post election Kenyan politics if he plays his cards right. Check this out:

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On the political front, the survey showed that there could be no presidential run off as the race crystallizes into a two horse race between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta.

Voters expect the other presidential candidates to coalesce around these two front runners.

“The choice of running mates will be the game changer. The other candidates will only have to coalesce around the top two contenders to form a two horse race scenario,” Ms Ambitho said.

According to the polls, a Raila / Kalonzo ticket will beat an alliance of Uhuru / Ruto 52 – 48 per cent.

A Raila / Kalonzo ticket will also beat a Eugene Wamalwa / Charity Ngilu ticket 67-33 per cent in case Mr Kenyatta and Ruto are barred from running.

Ms Ambitho said the decision to pair the candidates as such was informed by on-going talks of alliances between the leading aspirants in forming pre-poll coalitions.

http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Public-trust-in-IEBC-plummets-over-BVR-saga/-/1064/1617342/-/leuqisz/-/index.html

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47 comments on “The Running Mate Factor In The 2013 General Elections

  1. The charade that has become running mates business

    So finally all the six presidential aspirants – Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, Wycliffe Musalia Mudavadi, Martha Karua, Peter Kenneth and James ole Kiyapi – have running mates. In past elections, especially during the Moi era, the position of vice-president was often used as a bait for communities to unlock their votes.

    At the time – especially during Moi’s last two elections of 1992 and 1997– the then President and self-proclaimed ‘professor of politics’ would send coded political messages to communities that if they voted for Kanu instead of the opposition, he, Moi, would appoint one of their sons to the position of vice-president. Never mind that when Moi would be dangling the vice-presidency political carrot, the position of VP was never vacant. Nevertheless, by dangling the position, greedy and ambitious political kingpins from various communities would try to outdo each other in the hope that Moi’s favour would befall them. Of course after winning the election, Moi would still have a VP of his own choice regardless of whatever promises he made. That was realpolitik Moi-style.

    Now, the French have a saying, plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose (the more things change, the more they remain the same). In politics the more things change, the more they remain the same.

    Ordinarily, with the new Constitution and the position of deputy president having been affirmed as the president-in-waiting, one would have assumed the position of running mate would now be determined by capacity and ability of the prospective deputy president to step into the president’s shoes should the need arise. But alas, this not exactly so, especially among the lower tier of presidential aspirants. Truth be told, among the six running mates – Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, William Somoei Ruto, Jeremiah Kioni, Augustine Lotodo, Winnie Kaburu and Ronald Osumba – most likely only two could fit the bill as presidents-in-waiting. These happen to be Kalonzo and Ruto. So the big question is why would a person who considers himself or herself a serious presidential contender pick a political minnow for a running mate? Why indeed would someone who, when he or she, looks at himself or herself in the mirror conclude that he or she is in the presidential race to win pick a political dwarf as a potential president-in-waiting?

    I think the aspiring presidential candidates in question are not serious about their own candidature and so they assumed anyone they pick as running mate would do.

    Imagine for a moment that Prof Kiyapi is Kenya’s president after March 4. Then something happens before his presidential term is over and he cannot complete his term of office. So, this means that one Winnie Kaburu, a 53-year-old former school teacher whom few Kenyans (let alone the rest of the world) had ever heard of before Kiyapi named her as his running mate, becomes the fifth president of the great Republic of Kenya. Seriously? Someone is playing a cruel joke on Kenyans here. Replay a similar scenario and assume Mudavadi wins the presidential race and for some reason, cannot complete his term. So naturally the one-term MP for Ndaragwa is your next president! Interesting, yeah?

    Or perhaps the iron lady of Kenyan politics, the indefatigable Ms Karua wins the race but is unable to complete her term at State House, and bingo, your next president is Augustine Lotodo, a greenhorn politician, almost hilarious if this weren’t such a serious issue, isn’t it? May be Peter Kenneth he who of Tunawesmake fame, makes to State House after the presidential race then as fate would have it, he does not complete the term and voila, we have president Ronald Osumba, a seemingly nice youthful Kenyan from Starehe Boys Centre, Kenneth’s former alma mater. But seriously, is that all that it takes to be a president-in-waiting? Something does not seem to be right here. If a candidate wants to be taken seriously by voters and the rest of the world, he or she had an obligation to choose an equally serious running mate.

    The writer is Managing Editor of The Standard On Sunday

    http://standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000075933&story_title=Kenya-The-charade-that-has-become-running-mates-business

  2. Doubts over Mudavadi, Kalonzo deal

    Coalition talks between Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi are troubled.

    The Standard has reliably established that attempts by the two to forge a pre-election alliance is floundering after both refused to cede ground on their ambitions to be the presidential flag bearer.

    As if to confirm that the talks were on ice, the Wiper Democratic Movement MPs held a press conference in Parliament where they announced the VP is still in talks with Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

    They said Kalonzo held talks with Uhuru on Tuesday, appearing to flip-flop on earlier assertions that he had abandoned the so-called G7 alliance in protest at being treated as a “junior” partner.

    The VP jetted out of the country to Malaysia on Tuesday evening for a two-day trip. While there he is expected to meet the country’s leaders and officials of the country’s ruling United Malays National Organisation (UMNO).

    Interestingly, Prime Minister Raila Odinga returned last week from a trip to Malaysia where he received an honorary degree from Limkokwing University of Creative Technology.

    Things got heated after Mudavadi’s camp circulated a document that suggested Kalonzo lacks the support to launch a credible run for the presidency.

    Legal requirement

    It portrayed Mudavadi as the leading presidential aspirant in satisfying the legal requirement for nomination by no fewer than 2000 voters each from at least 24 counties.

    But the acting Registrar of Political Parties Ms Lucy Ndung’u dismissed the document saying she did not know its origin.

    “UDF is trying to confuse Kenyans because the Political Parties Act requires each party to recruit as members not fewer than 1000 registered voters from each of more than half of the counties (24) and not 2000 as alleged,” Ndung’u said.

    The document alleged that Mudavadi’s UDF would meet the threshold in 32 counties while Kalonzo’s Wiper would only manage 13 counties, Uhuru’s TNA 29 and Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s ODM 27.

    “If presidential nominations were to be held some aspirants would be disqualified from vying for presidency because they cannot comply with the Political Parties Act,” nominated MP George Nyamweya told a rally in Embu attended by Mudavadi.

    “That is the reason they are pursuing coalition deals kufa na kupona (by all means).”

    Housing Minister Mr Soita Shitanda alluded to the stalemate when he publicly stated he did not foresee a pre-election pact because parties only agreed to conditional talks.

    Not negotiable

    Mudavadi has publicly stated his ambition to be President is not negotiable, while Kalonzo has argued he is entitled to succeed President Kibaki because he has served as his VP.

    Kalonzo has also cited his age to underscore his seniority in talks with Mudavadi. Kalonzo’s camp has argued he should be the presidential candidate as he is turning 60 while Mudavadi is 51.

    Kalonzo has demanded that Raila, Mudavadi, Ruto and Uhuru play second fiddle in any alliance crafted with them, because he would be the most senior politician in the group.

    “He argues that he entered politics (Parliament) in 1985, Raila (1992), Mudavadi (1989), Ruto (1997), Charity Ngilu in 1992 and Wamalwa 2003,” said a Wiper MP who asked not to be named.

    But Mudavadi maintains he withdrew from the race in 2002 for Uhuru and in 2007 for Raila and that it is his turn to be backed for the presidency.

    The Standard also learnt of a meeting on Tuesday in Nairobi between allies of Kalonzo and Raila who have been pushing for a deal between the two.

    Cabinet Minister Mutula Kilonzo and Kangundo MP Johnstone Muthama met ODM ministers James Orengo and Dalmas Otieno at the Public Service minister’s office.

    In Parliament, MPs from Ukambani region said Kalonzo was still open to coalition talks with Uhuru and Ruto.

    MPs Gideon Ndambuki, Prof Philip Kaloki, Victor Munyaka and Peter Kiilu said the Uhuru-Ruto option is one among many, including Mudavadi’s.

    “Kalonzo and Uhuru are still friends, we have been working together with them (Uhuru and Ruto) for a long time and we still believe that they can work together,” said Ndambuki, the Wiper Parliamentary Group Chairman.

    The MPs said the party’s National Executive Council would meet to review the coalition discussions and set the agenda for the National Delegates Conference on December 3, where the coalition agreement will be ratified.

    In Embu, UDF allied MPs George Nyamweya, Jeremiah Kioni and Nderitu Muriithi said their party is the only one with a national membership spread across all counties.

    Regional outfits

    “The data shows that Ruto complies in only 15 while Kalonzo does in 13.?Mudavadi is followed by TNA, ODM, URP and Wiper aspirants with compliance in 28, 26, 15 and 13 Counties respectively in the latest statistic from IEBC web site,” said Nyamweya.?

    The MPs noted that data on membership shows that other parties concentrated in their flag bearers’ strongholds making them regional outfits.

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000071635&story_title=Kenya-Doubts-over-Mudavadi,-Kalonzo-deal-

  3. William Kipchirchir Samoei Arap Ruto has spent the better part of today in Nakuru briefing a faction of the Kalenjin Council of Elders about the URP/TNA pre-election political pact. A number of Kalenjin professional attended the meeting.

    Towards the end of the meeting Ruto announced to bewildered Elders that URP and TNA are now a single entity, meaning it is a done deal.

    Ruto’s meeting was held at Olkaia Lodge opposite former President Moi’s expansive Kabarak Estate.

    Soon after the meeting, chaos erupted following disagreements over money and some political statements and anti riot police have been called from Nakuru.

    It seems the ground in Kalenjin counties are weighing their options following this abrupt announcement that comes hardly a week after Ruto was widely quoted by the press denying any agreement with any party that would see him emerge the running mate to Uhuru Kenyatta.

  4. Wamalwa exit puts G7 pact in jeopardy

    Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa’s formal exit from the G7 alliance has thrown a fresh spanner in the works for the Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto’s pact.

    Wamalwa quit the alliance expressing his displeasure on the ongoing pre-election talks and claiming he was being treated as a junior partner.

    He announced he would now negotiate with other presidential aspirants from the Luhya community (read Musalia Mudavadi?) to agree on a common political agenda.

    “We are not going to be treated as junior partners in any political alliance and there is no retreat and no going back. We have to decide on our political destiny,” declared Eugene.

    Our sister publication, The Standard on Saturday yesterday exclusively reported how Wamalwa was plotting to flee the union between Deputy Prime

    Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto.

    Apart from the fresh Wamalwa headache, Uhuru and Ruto are yet to deal with the near explosive disquiet among the Eldoret North MP’s supporters in the Rift valley who have disapproved of the alliance.

    Just this week, youths in the region have hit the streets in demonstrations against the alliance with placards bearing the inscriptions Achicha Wendi Kityo (No, he will go alone).

    Political analyst, Philip Chebunet, says Eugene’s move was now likely to give the opposition in Rift Valley fresh impetus and further complicate matters for the pact.

    “You will remember that it was Wamalwa who first joined Uhuru and with the likely promise that he would be his running mate. Now that Ruto came in and appears set to be Uhuru’s mate, Wamalwa felt he had no option but to bolt out,” explained the don.

    So confident was Eugene in the G7 alliance that during his homecoming party in Kitale after he was appointed Justice Minister, he declared he would not be defending his Saboti seat.

    During the party in April, Wamalwa announced that he would relinquish his Saboti seat in the forthcoming General Elections to concentrate on G7 alliance’s national political aspirations.

    He also said he would not contest any seat in Trans Nzoia County and asked locals to elect credible leaders to replace him.

    “I want to take this opportunity to thank Saboti constituents for electing and supporting me and I hereby ask for your permission to assist my brothers here in the national duty we are seeking,” said Eugene.

    The guest of honour at the function was Uhuru, with Wamalwa’s allies thanking him for facilitating the appointment of the Saboti MP to the Cabinet.

    Indeed, discerning political analysts saw Uhuru’s hand in Wamalwa’s elevation to the influential cabinet more considering the fact that his appointment coincided with the removal of Mutula Kilonzo, who as minister for Justice had been overly critical of Uhuru over the ICC issue.

    Wamalwa’s departure from the G7 alliance now deals a body blow to Uhuru and Ruto who will now most likely rely on their Central and Rift Valley voting blocs, although the latter has shown signs of cracks.

    Following Wamalwas’s announcement yesterday at Matunda, it will now remain to be seen what Uhuru and Ruto will do to forestall further fallouts within their ranks.

    Sources told the Standard on Sunday that a host of Rift Valley MPs were also uncomfortable with Ruto’s alliance with Uhuru and were quietly consulting on their options.

    “We have a few of our colleagues close to him (Ruto) who decided on this thing. I think our political careers hang in the balance because of the opposition we are witnessing at home,” said one MP who declined to be named.

    He said Ruto should rethink his political direction and give dialogue and consultation a fresh chance in order to address the growing disquiet in the region.

    “He cannot afford to make a blunder this time, especially because of his case at The Hague and I think it about time we leaders in Rift Valley come out and tell him the truth instead of following him blindly,” asserted another legislator from the Rift Valley.

    Wamalwa, Lugari MP Cyrus Jirongo, and Trade Minister Moses Wetangula are expected to hold joint public rallies in Navakholo, Lurambi constituency where more interesting political developments may be forthcoming.

    During a rally dubbed as ‘Matunda declaration’ the two politicians regretted that disunity among Luhya leaders could deny the community its best stab at the presidency.

    Wamalwa and Jirongo told the rally that leaders from western region are holding meetings to iron out differences and give direction of the leader whose name will appear at the ballot paper next general elections.

    “This is a real force to State House. It is an unstoppable journey and those who think we are still divided are in for a big surprise,” Jirongo declared.

    Wamalwa said the community’s quest for the presidency is on the right footing and promised that the name of the person to represent the community in the presidential race will be announced within two weeks.

    “There is no retreat and no surrender. We are not going to play the second fiddle as suggested by external forces. Give us two weeks and we will settle on the candidate,” said Eugene.

    Wamalwa said some people have taken advantage of the disunity of the community leaders to propagate their political agenda using the community.

    “It because of our division that people are seeing us as unfocused but we are warning them that the new force will bring our people together and forge a common political agenda,” said the minister.

    For now though, it remains to be seen which direction the Wamalwa-Jirongo duo will take in their quest for Luhya unity. One person who will be watching these developments with bated breath is the leading presidential aspirant from the Luhya community Musalia Mudavadi while Uhuru Kenyatta goes back to the drawing board.

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000071421&story_title=Kenya-Wamalwa-exit–puts-G7-pact-in-jeopardy

    • hehehe einstein

      very interesting developments

      am sure we can expect some very interesting comments from muthamaki’s corner very soon

      first he was “de-forbed” for what we are led to believe is a lack of a clear financial path to his wealth

      now with wamalwa gone, he has lost his toe-hold into western

      with kalonzo gone, ditto his foothold into lower eastern (cross fingers, hands, legs and everything else that, ngilu will hold, but history says otherwise)

      upper eastern is iffy given kiraitu’s mbus is running in more circles than the famed headless chicken

      meanwhile his entry point to rift valley has also hit the brick wall called “achicha wendi kityo”

      … more popcorn please ……

      • TNK my brother,

        I’m still laughing my ass off! This is the goodest laugh I can ever get.

        Is there such a word as ‘goodest’ in English?

        It is so good for my own health, that I just say, “fuack that shit!”

        Man, where is Adongo and Job, the masters to help me out here!!??

      • JOKE OF THE CENTURY

        Vice President RUTO dreams of sharing power with President UHURU on a 50-50 basis.

        Ok folks, sit baaaaaaack!!!!!

        Excerpt from the Standard newspaper posted by Adongo above:

        The ministerial, ambassadorial and Cabinet secretaries positions will be shared on a 50-50 basis, sources familiar with the talks reveal. “URP will be getting a huge chunk of the key positions for the simple reason that Ruto has agreed to give up his presidential ambitions and become Uhuru’s running mate,” revealed Emgwen MP Elijah Lagat.

        “Experience keeps a dear school, yet fools will learn in no other”

        Benjamin Franklin One of America’s Founding Fathers

      • Adongo,
        Why do you insult the guys by insisting that they have no chance?
        In these peoples twisted minds they can clearly see logic in what they are doing. The only problem is that not many Kenyans are with them in seeing their imaginary path to victory. The kind of people who are with them (Uhuruto) are the kind who would have voted for them even if Uhuruto killed their mothers in broad day light.
        The trouble is that the ongoing deals are not happening any time soon if at all. The Uhuru/TNA wants to seal the deal now when they have Ruto where they want him. They understand that the more time goes by the louder the resistance from Rift Valley becomes. The more they wait and the more the wrangles the more likely that other partners such Ngilu and Wamalwa get wary, for it is becoming abundantly clear that it is all about the two big boys URP and TNA.

        Ruto on his part would like to wait with the signing of the deal as late as possible. This would be a good way of putting pressure on TNA to give them even more. It´s now understood that URP will go into a 50/50 deal with TNA. Ruto also wants to outwait ODM if possible. He wants to know who ODM picks as running mate. This would help him immensely in his decision to seal a deal with Uhuru t. Should ODM go for a Kalenjin running mate then Ruto will most likely go it alone. Should it be someone else then the deal with TNA might just work out.

        The TNA/URP deal has been complicated further by the Kalonzo/Mudavadi talks. Should the two decide to work together, then Ruto must work with Uhuru and accept being a second fiddle. Otherwise he is doomed and will come number four in the first round of presidential elections.

        However one slices and dices this thing, there is no way on earth Ruto is getting anywhere near power come 2013. It will take a miracle.

    • This was bound to happen…na bado….it’s not hit the ceiling yet. By the time of the run-off and countdown to the ICC full trial, it will be clear Kenyans won’t want to vote themselves into pariah status.

      Two audacious individuals charged with the worst crimes ever known to man, arrogantly parading themselves to lead Kenya! Wacha tu!

      Notwithstanding loyalty to tribe, Kenyan citizens know they still need UNEP at Gigiri, and still want to retain all regional and international humanitarian bodies, financial entities, ….and still want to benefit from tourism and exports to the West. Wananchi can’t afford economic sanctions in the name of two criminal warlords called Kenyatta and Ruto.

      Certainly the “Achicha wendi kityo” movement would have caught full momentum by then…refusing to follow a member of Kenya’s biggest land grabbing family. And of course like Kalonzo, Eugene is learning quite late that he was after all being played like Jirongo said. This only gets better by the day. Folks, you’ll need a full bucket of popcorn!

  5. Mudavadi, VP close to power deal

    Talks on a coalition structure between Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi have been concluded.

    A team of negotiators from the United Democratic Forum (UDF) and the Wiper Democratic Party concluded the talks in Mombasa on Friday.

    The talks, which are likely to complicate Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta’s campaign strategies, involved experts and MPs. (READ: G7 Alliance leaders now reach out to Kalonzo and Mudavadi)

    The two parties are intent on countering Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta in the coming elections.

    The team of negotiators also profiled the strengths and weaknesses of the two candidates and weighed the possibilities which will be presented to the candidates by their representatives before the negotiations are moved to the next level.

    On Monday, Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi met before they each named two experts to join an already existing team of coalition makers comprising Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale and Ndaragwa MP Jeremiah Kioni for the UDF while assistant minister David Musila and Yatta MP Charles Kilonzo represented Mr Musyoka.

    High placed government sources told the Saturday Nation that the desire to pair Mr Mudavadi with Mr Musyoka has been precipitated by a county-to-county-based intelligence report said to have projected a possible win by Mr Kenyatta.

    Analysts believe a coalition between the two stands a better chance of defeating either Mr Odinga or Mr Kenyatta in a presidential run-off.

    On Friday, Mr Khalwale said that the eight-man team that has been meeting in seclusion at a Mombasa hotel had gained considerable grounds.

    “The chemistry of Mudavadi and Kalonzo has conclusively been matched. What we want is to be careful not to behave like Uhuru and Ruto did before the VP left them,” he said.

    The Ikolomani MP said, however that details of the Mombasa negotiations could not be revealed. He said Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi would make public the content of their talks if the ongoing talks with Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto, who lead the G7 Alliance, fail to succeed.

    Well-placed sources indicated that the schemers of the Mudavadi-Musyoka outfit have also asked the two leaders to go full throttle into confrontation with the G7 leaders as they worm their way into the hearts of Kenyan voters.

    Reputation

    Mr Mudavadi recently asked Kenyans to think about the reputation of the country as they elect new leaders, a statement interpreted as an assault on Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto.

    Mr Musyoka also went rough against the two when he warned Mr Ruto to be careful with the coalition pact he and Mr Kenyatta were working on.

    On Friday, Mr Musyoka’s close confidant, Mr Mohammed Affey, said the Wiper party had fully endorsed talks with Mr Mudavadi. Asked whether Mr Musyoka was now ready to play second fiddle in a coalition arrangement, Mr Affey said Wiper would not put forward any unrealistic conditions.

    “The alliance between Kalonzo and Mudavadi is not about countering or blocking Raila or Uhuru but one that is engaging on ways of forming the best government for Kenyans. We also recognise that Kalonzo is a sitting Vice-President,” Mr Affey said.

    Mr Mudavadi on Thursday declared that he was open to negotiations, but warned those who wanted to work with him to be ready to work under him.

    Mr Kioni, who is part of the negotiating team, said an interesting breakthrough had been made. “Very soon, we will make the details of these talks known. Things are going on well, and we are sure that this is the coalition that will form the next government” he said.

    The MPs, however, insisted that the Mudavadi-Musyoka alliance was not State funded, adding that the two leaders had come together voluntarily.

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Mudavadi-VP-close-to-power-deal/-/1064/1622304/-/vk4eq9/-/index.html

    • According to latest media reports, Kalonzo and Mudavadi have reached a deal even though nobody is telling us the details.

      http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Third-force-to-rival-Raila-Uhuru-in-poll-/-/1064/1626258/-/eqnhb/-/index.html

      Here is what I suspect.

      1. The deal will be along the lines that there will be a joint nomination process and whoever wins with be the presidential candidate and the other the running mate. Fare enough. Trouble with that as we show with ODM in 2007 is that it will be another round of squables and fights.

      What does this mean for ODM?

      1. ODM will spare itself from the nightmare of pre-election pacts which many Kenyans are getting fed up with.

      2. ODM is now free to pick its Deputy Presidential candidate from its own pool without the squabbles and complaints of bringing someone from outside to take the running mate spot. ODM could bring a fresh and new face and that could serve them very well.

      3. ODM is free from its old cancers. Those tumors are now completely gone. Of course there will be new ones but that is life.

      4. This new alliance also means that for all practical purposes there will be a run-off. The fantasy that Uhuru and Ruto would herd everybody into their small tent to get a first round win and avoid The Hague is now officially dead and burried. Ruto who was very kin on getting at least Mudavadi to suck votes from Raila to their group must be a very worried man. Ruto is slightly more strategic than the clueless Uhuru who thinks Kenya is located somewhere in Kiambu. Ruto knows a second round is a disaster for them and in fact they may not even be in the country by then. Well this third force whatever it is called pretty much guarantees a run-off.

      5. Both the ODM and the Mudavadi/Kalonzo team would love to have a run off with the Uhuru team whom they know is doomed but can still win in round one and get either number one or two spot. It seems to me that there is a very high chance of Raila -v-Uhuru in the run off. Raila has good numbers as it is and his numbers could get better as things clear and the demand for a credible leadership to save the country from the total chaos we see today grows. Kalonzo comes in with a divided force and if he ends up as the Deputy to Mudavadi who just came up yesterday there is going to be a backlash. If Mudavadi ends up as the Deputy he will be laughed out of town by everyone.

      6. If as is most likely the “third force” ends up in the third spot it will be game over for Uhuru in the run-off.

      Let the games begin.

      • This (Mudavadi-Kalonzo deal) is the BEST but still salient news to emerge from the big political arena. Many are yet to appreciate the humongous significance of this deal.

        I have always maintained that eventually there will be only two horses in the race – thanks to the new Constitution. Only the first and second – from round 1 – meet in the run-off.

        Thus looking at round ONE….lets imagine a hypothetical scenario of Raila running with a Kalenjin running mate vs Uhuru and Ruto (a ticket with both amigos accused at the ICC) vs Mudavadi and Kalonzo…

        That’s the perfect recipe for splintering voting blocs to the very advantage of Raila and Uhuru – who will both fail to garner 50% in round 1 but ultimately meet for the run-off.

        The politics of the run-off immediately changes. Try to project or immerse your imagination into the run-off climate.

        It will be a completely new environment where Kenyans will start staring at the possibility of either choosing to be a pariah state (with fugitive President and VP; international sanctions/& sabotage; possible UNEP relocation from Gigiri to Germany; economic downturn, etc) OR the only other alternative left…

        Without fear of contradiction – it will be countdown.

        This will be the moment of reckoning when Mudavadi’s followers will be more powerful than the round-1 loser called Mudavadi.

        It will be the time when my in-laws, Kalonzo’s supporters, will have the perfect opportunity to pay back at Kibaki’s failure to endorse Kalonzo despite ’07. It will be Mutula Kilonzo’s moment to escape a possible wrath from Uhuru.

        This is going where we anticipated. Its showtime!

      • Heheheeee!

        UDF, Wiper yet to decide on flag-bearer

        Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka and Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi have still not tackled the sensitive issue of which of the two will be the presidential candidate if their planned election alliance bears fruit.

        Their talks continued as another alliance involving Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta as presidential candidate and Eldoret North MP William Ruto as running mate moved on to negotiations
        on the fielding of candidates for other elective seats from their parties. (READ: Ruto, Uhuru in fresh G7 push to beat Raila)

        Mr Kenyatta of The National Alliance (TNA) and Mr Ruto of the United Republican Party (URP) have both been indicted by the International Criminal Court over the post-election violence and are due for trial at The Hague in April.

        They have indicated they want to turn the General Election into a referendum on the ICC.

        Separate entities

        Sketchy details from a draft agreement between Mr Musyoka of the Wiper Democratic Party and Mr Mudavadi of the United Democratic Forum indicate the two are discussing either teaming up in a coalition, or approaching the election as separate entities with a common agenda. (READ: Kalonzo and Mudavadi strike deal on alliance)

        The draft, which was placed before the VP and the deputy PM on Wednesday at the Serena Hotel said if the two settle on a coalition, they will then be required to decide who will be the presidential candidate.

        On Thursday, Ikolomani MP Boni Khalwale refused to reveal the details of the draft agreement, saying, consultations were still taking place.

        “We have an agreement in place, but we cannot make it public because the top organs of parties involved have to meet and sanction it. I ask Kenyans to be patient with us. We will soon announce it,” he said.

        It is said that both Mr Mudavadi and Mr Musyoka will be required to convene their party delegates conferences to approve some of the details in the coalition agreement.

        In case the two agree to go to the election as a team, they will settle on a party symbol to use on the presidential ballot paper. However, they were categorical that the two parties will be retained as distinct entities.

        On Friday, Mr Musyoka will meet the Kamba Council of Elders and Wiper MPs to discuss the coalition arrangement.

        On Thursday, Mr Mudavadi’s UDF held a meeting of the party’s political council and National Executive Council (NEC), which endorsed the talks.

        In a statement, UDF chairman Hassan Osman said: “Consistent with our policy commitment to drive inclusive dialogue with parties that share our vision and passion for an inclusive government, we endorse and encourage the on-going consultations between our leaders and the leaders of Wiper Democratic Movement Party and other parties”.

        “We will carry out this process expeditiously to assure the nation that a team for stability and peaceful transition to a promising future is in the offing.”

        If UDF and Wiper go to the elections as individual parties, the draft agreement proposes that they map out the county in fielding of candidates based on their strengths in those areas.

        Campaign rallies

        However, the two parties have already agreed to carry out joint campaign rallies as they made room for other parties to join them. The two parties have also a team in place to harmonise their manifestos. (READ: Parties rush to polish manifestos)

        Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto discussed the fielding of candidates with proposals of regional zoning cropping up in meetings held on Wednesday. Negotiators privy to the talks say that the parties believe they can maximise their parliamentary strength if they don’t compete against each other.

        They were also yet to agree on how to share out Cabinet and other top government jobs if their alliance wins the election.

        So far, indications are that they have agreed on the joint ticket, but are yet to agree on how the positions of the speakers of the two houses will be shared.

        Also in contention is how other parties — New Ford Kenya of Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa, and Narc, of Water Minister Charity Ngilu — will be accommodated in the coalition deal.

        URP is still insisting that Narc and New Ford-Kenya are part of TNA and any negotiations with them should be as part of Mr Kenyatta’s entourage. TNA, on the other hand, feels that it should get a larger part of the deal since it has more affiliates.

        http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/UDF-Wiper-yet-to-decide-on-flag-bearer/-/1064/1627088/-/m4ba1qz/-/index.html

      • yeah, it is still a mirage. One thing we know for sure is that they have jumped off the Uhuruto bandwagon. The battle as to who goes on top of the ticket I think they will settle with a joint nomination process. Then they will go to battle as to the methodology of nomination. The good news for both of them is that they both quit ODM claiming they want direct nominations which basically means all members vote. It is a messy process and not very workable under our circumstances but both Mudavadi and Kalonzo used that excuse to bolt from ODM after getting promises from elsewhere. Now it is their turn.

        In the end of the day they will come with a process which gives the loser an excuse to go explain to their supporters why they are on the bottom of the marriage plan. For these two guys it is a dilemma. Kalonzo who is already a V.P cannot go back to his supporters and tell them he is going to be a V.P candidate for Mudavadi. At the same time Mudavadi who was pretty much guaranteed a V.P slot in the more promising ODM will find it very hard to convince his supporters that it is O.K to be a V.P for Kalonzo. So they have made their bed and they will have to chill there even if it is a very unhappy marriage. That is their problem.

        The funny part is when they talk about running seperately but having joint rallies and running on same issues. What the heck is that. Either way we don’t care. Bring on the third force or the fourth force the two horse race of Raila is what we are looking at.

    • hehehehe

      adongo, what deals are these that the G7 have been sealing and finalising for the past is it 3 years now already?

      if we were to donate an acre for every time “deals have been formulated and clinched” we might have another guy owning land the size of Nyanza

      this boardroom presidency is such an old and tired phrase. i bet sometime tomorrow or next week, we shall unveil the mother of all coalition, alliances in the most sweetheart deal of them all…… again …

      what a bunch of jokers and jesters

      • Job, tnk, Adongo and others,
        I think that this is a gift from God to ODM. Apparently ODM´s path to victory is being paved in gold as time moves on. This is a chance in a lifetime that the party must not squander. ODM must even encourage the union. I sincerely hope that the Kalonzo/Mudavadi and Uhuru/Ruto so called coalitions hold. This is all ODM needs to win the elections.

        Truth of the matter is that if there is an agreement between the two then Musalia Mudavadi is going to be the running mate. Kalonzo has the Uhuru tendency of it’s either me or the highway. I don’t think that Kajudas would have even agreed to be Uhurus running mate for he believes that he is the senior partner.

        ODM must still be very wary of this group. Their aim is still to stop Raila from becoming president. They would rather lose the race than see Raila become president. So, whatever advantage ODM has, it must not drop its guard because the enemy’s sword is still drawn and aimed at its very heart.

        The Kalonzo/Mudavadi ticket is to a large extent hinged on the courts barring Uhuru/Ruto from not running. The duo believes that they will then come out and preach that its Railas fault that Uhuruto is in the ICC mess. They will falsely claim that they will bring the cases back to Kenya bla bla bla. In this way they hope to rope in all the Kikuyu and the Kalenjin votes and bingo…

        I have said and I will repeat that the majority of the Kikuyu votes will most likely go to a Kikuyu. That’s what history tells us and nothing is going to change that soon. It does not matter if the kikuyu candidate is called Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua, Paul Muite or even Maina Njenga.

        Can the Kalonzo/Mudavadi duo win outright in round one if Uhuruto is not running? Both Job and Adongo have predicted a second round and I agree that there will be one. But there is even more. In the second round there will be no Kikuyu candidate on the ballot paper. Where will the kikuyu vote go? Who will get it? This will not be the key to winning the elections but it will be significant. Will the kikuyu vote for Kalonzo/Mudavadi who dissed Uhuru and decided to do their own thing? This is a one dollar question for it’s very easy to answer. It’s a big NO.

        My guess is that ODM will get majority of the Kikuyu vote with the rest going to Kajudas and Mudavadi. But even if Kalonzo and Mudavadi got a little more of the Kikuyu vote than ODM it won’t matter for this will be balanced out by the Kalenjin vote that will most likely end up in ODM`s basket, especially if the running mate is a kalenjin.

        Supposing the Uhuruto gang is not barred from running the Mudavadi/Kalonzo ticket is dead in the water. They will come third behind ODM and TNA/URP. If Kalonzo wants to be in the next government, the only sure way of getting there is backing Raila in which case he will move to the new VP house. Any other move is due to backfire terribly. I hope that he has now learnt that “asante ya punda ni mateke”. Kibaki has showed him one or two things about deception.

      • mzee,

        A few things.

        The Uhuruto mob, at least the ones who can think a little, forget those intoxicated with tribal math, must be very concerned. Effectively Kalonzo is doing to them what he did to ODM in 2007 when he branched out destined to lose. Remember how the PNU machinery fooled him around mobilizing huge rallies for him in Nairobi to swell his head. All they wanted was for Kalonzo to pull out his 1 million votes from ODM, otherwise rigging Kibaki in would have been that much harder. It worked.

        Today Kalonzo is pulling out his 1 million votes from the Uhuruto gang for obvious reasons. Kalonzo is not ready to be given non existent jobs of majority party leader, senate speaker etc. It is embarassing to him. He was willing to be the presidential candidate with Uhuru as his running mate and once Uhuru is uploaded to The Hague Kalonzo would just get another deputy. Of course Uhuru did not spend his billions for that. So that deal is dead.

        My suspicion is that Ruto particularly is going to try one more shot at getting those guys but chances of that succeeding is much less now. There is one card Ruto and Uhuru can play with Kalonzo and Mudavadi. They can promise them that should the coming court cases complicate things for them they will drop from the race and the alliance will nominate Kalonzo and Mudavadi. As they say a bird in hand is worth ten in the bush so Kalonzo and Muda cannot hinge any hopes on what the courts will decide which could very well be after the nominations are done.

        Remember there is one big complication for the Uhuruto gang. If the court ruling stops them after the coalition is done that team has no candidates. I mean Wamalwa and Ngilu just can’t cut it. As I have said many times the court ruling is not likely to cut off these Hague bond chaps but the ruling will most likely let them know that as soon as they are elected the courts will be in a position to make a different ruling namely declare them unfit to hold office. In that event Uhuru and Ruto may be prevailed upon to sponsor somebody from their coalition. There will be nobody to sponsor. In any event I suspect the two bulldogs will run even if they know they will be ruled unfit to hold office. I mean they have promised to govern the country from The Hague, something they know is impossible. So we can expect more recklessness from them until they are beaten at the polls which will happen.

        Kalonzo the fox is probably banking on the hope that ODM can come third and leave him and Mudavadi to battle Uhuruto. They must have realised by now that any team will beat Uhuruto in the run-off as Kenyans stare in the face of a pariah state. Of course Kalonzo is also hoping that the courts can stop Uhuruto. So either way the Kalonzo Mudavadi axis can see they have a cahnce and that is why they will stick to their alliance.

        As to who carries the top of the ticket expect the deal to be vague and leave a pretence of a primary race. I think in the end Kalonzo will be the top gun.

        ODM must focus with a lazer precision on getting close to 45% of the vote in round one. Uhuruto mob will get close to the same number and Mudavadi Kalonzo will be in the low 20s. Then the batlle goes to the run-off as Uhuru and Ruto pack their bags ready for the trip of their lifetime. What Uhuru and Ruto must know by now is that once they lose the election whoever wins will ask them to go to The Hague peacefully and deal with it. Fair enough.

      • Folks,

        The tower of Babel is still what it has always been. A mess. They have two seats and nobody wants to sit on the floor. Remember when these same guys went to Naivasha and rejected the hybrid system where we would have a president and the deputy as well as a prime minister and the deputy. One would have been the head of state and the other head of government. Uhuru and his Ruto mob rejected that thinking it was one of their wars against Raila! Now they would kill to have that option back to get spots for kina Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Wamalwa. Fighting Raila can sometimes be such a hazardous and thankless job. Hauri zao.

        Here is what I am talking about.

        http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000071351&story_title=Kenya-Wamalwa-plot-to-flee-Uhuru,-Ruto–

      • and this is happening all from within, i.e no one has yet started a strategy to actively peel off their members as they did to other parties.

        its so comical to listen to these guys claim to be working together on a deal, yet all of them want to be presidential candidates at the same time.

        all those posts being negotiated e.g speaker, leader of majority etc, these are not some posts to be handed to someone, but are posts that will be determined from the floor of the house, by members sitting in that house.

        some of these guys might not even make it to that house.

        we’ll be waiting for the announcement on Dec 4 that they have all agreed to be presidential candidates and not campaign against each other …… hehehehe ……. that is until February then all hell breaks loose and its every man for himself

      • Adongo,

        Heheheheeee, I’m laughing my ass off!!

        At this rate, Uhuru might just end up murdering Ruto literally after ALL the billions of shillings he paid out to Ruto for the latter’s support in this drama!

  6. And now they are planning to push the date for signing the pre-coalition pacts to January next year because they cannot agree.

    Why Uhuru, Ruto deal must wait

    ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… It is against this background that URP came up with the strategy of moving forward the December 4 deadline for parties to deposit their pre-election coalition agreements.

    Chepalungu MP Isaac Ruto — an ally of Mr William Ruto — confirmed the proposed amendment seeks to push the date for signing the pre-coalition pacts to January next year.

    While it is believed it would enjoy the support of majority of members of the House, which reopens on Tuesday, there are concerns about the implication on other electoral timelines.

    Verify legality

    Education Minister Mutula Kilonzo, who served as Justice Minister, argues there is a reason why it was decided the agreements be deposited three months before elections. He argued the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission needs the time to verify the legality of the coalitions to contest various elective seats and plan for electoral materials, including ballot papers.

    “Although I don’t support it, I know for a fact if such an amendment comes to the House when it reconvenes next week it will surely pass because of interests MPs have on the postponement,” he added.

    “Supposing a coalition comes a day before the elections and doesn’t qualify in accordance with Article 92 of the Constitution that governs political parties what would happen?” asked Mutula.

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000070672&story_title=Kenya-Why-Uhuru,-Ruto-deal-must-wait

    • So all the hype and makelele was for nothing?

      What back peddling? Gosh!

      Whichever way you look at it, his situation does not improve. He cannot win the elections. Never in a place called Kenya. The guy is doomed, politically speaking.

      This is an ODM moment.

      The party must simply up the ante kidogo , si sana to tip Ruto into the abyss.

      • mzee & others,

        I seriously think the Uhuruto deal was for real and still is. Ruto jumped at it and Uhuru jumped at it with even more vigour. That usually should make a good relationship if it was just a matter between two consenting adults. But this is a little more complicated. These chaps are making a union to run the country called Kenya and Bensouda is busy shapening the knife for them to go face the charges on crimes against humanity at The Hague. That is what may ruin the relationship even before the parties get at it.

        The pariah state option that Uhuru and Ruto plus their bloggers and so called pundits (like Mutahi Ngunyi) took for granted is turning out to be a major stumbling block. Kenyans are now publicly questioning the nonsense of ruining the country with sanctions, diplomatic chaos and many other problems just for two people. I saw Makau Mutua on Jeff Koinange show the other day on the topic and he was brutally honest. It took the two of these guys (Uhuru and Ruto) coming together to finally get Kenyans to address and it seems to reject the notion. Uhuru and Ruto know the pariah state option is not exactly a hot sell right now and it is just likely to get worse.

        Can the admin post the latest Makau Mutua talk on CPK24 with Jeff Koinange. It is interestting.

        Secondly Ruto was probably stunned by the response from his own backyard. Ruto’s narrative has been that the Kalenjins are his and he alone will decide who they vote for on any seat. It was on that basis that Ruto and some of their more confused worshippers online went into cloud nine assuming that a Union between Uhuru and Ruto simply means they have to start counting the votes from the Kalenjin communities and add them with those from the Gikuyu comuunities and bingo, the election was already won. Then things started unravelling. Ruto is now on a panic run hoping from place to place to demonstrate that he still has the Kalenjin vote to hawk wherever he wants. We will see.

        The fact that the Uhuru people have told Ruto point blank that you can do the deputy thing but that is as far as it goes has also raised a lot or murmers. Remember it was Ruto who was Moi’s bulldog in the Uhuru project 2002. The irony is Ruto had told Moi then that they can tame Raila and the rainbow group. The rest as we know is history. All those factors are now back in the new battlefield and they create their own dynamics and that explains part of the reason the marriage is hitting the rocks before the promised wedding at Uhuru park. These guys may have to “elope” but where to, certainly not to The Hague.

        Drama! Drama! That is Kenyan politics. Never a dull moment. Good stuff.

      • thanks,

        And here is Ruto peddling stupid lies. Again.

        http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000070683&story_title=Kenya-Ruto-alleges-ploy-to-postpone-polls-date

        Someone should tell Ruto that the General Election date is in our constitution and the March 4th date was a court date based on the court reading of that constitution.

        No secret “foreign country” can miraculously change the date of the election ati working with civil society groups. To change the election date parliament would have to change the constitution. Ruto at least knows that but anything to project himself as some kind of a victim of some foreign power working with a certain politician has been Ruto’s sale pitch for four years and counting. It is getting tiresome and we know Ruto is facing some backlash so he needs to go back to the same well of peddling lies to promote himself but he needs to try something new.

        Ruto is a fairly smart guy but sometimes when he is blinded by his ego and ambition and finds himself in a corner he does some of the dumbest things to promote himself.

        I still can’t forget Ruto’s “bold” move to go to The Hague to “set matters straight”. That was one of the dumbest things Ruto has done in his political career and he can back looking like a real fool when he found Ocampo had gone to London and he was sent to some officers of the OTP to collect any statements he had to make. Ruto looked liek a deranged idiot.

        The election is on March 4, 2013 and Ruto should be at The Hague a month later on April 10, 2013. Those are fixed dates. Nothing can change them. Just get ready Mr. William and go defend yourself. Wacha fitina. And spare us the elndless lies, please.

      • 1) Ruto’s penchant to pick wrong fights at the wrong time is now legendary. He is now picking up another with an imaginary foreign state. Does Ruto think Kenyans are all dummies…easily lied to about a foreign government remote-controlling our election calendar…when everyone see’s it is him and his spanner boy Isaac Ruto trying to alter the calendar/deadline for pre-election pacts.

        2) Ruto’s dream is to wear the red TNA cap behind Uhuru but Kales are simply not buying into the project. No matter what acrobatics Ruto attempts, his folks aren’t voting for an ICC fugitive called Kenyatta…only to land Kenya into a pariah state. They know will ultimately suffer from economic sanctions – not Kenyatta or Ruto – but them.

        3) The intrigues within G-7 are reflecting the slow return of the chickens home….precisely Kenyatta’s home. The fallout will be cataclysmic. Watch this space.

      • And here goes Uhuru too! Whoever coined the name Uhuruto for the duo…..!!

        Uhuru alleges plot to delay polls

        Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta has claimed some foreign countries were plotting to have the March 4 election pushed to August next year.

        The National Alliance presidential aspirant urged foreign powers to stop meddling in the country’s internal affairs and let Kenyans choose their leaders.

        “It is only Kenyans who will decide their fourth President and in the polls date as stipulated by the Kenyan Constitution and agreed by Kenyans, not outside powers,” said Mr Kenyatta during a rally in Narok.

        He went on: “Kenya is a sovereign country and only Kenyan electorate will decide who will be their next President and when the election should be held not Western forces.”

        URP leader William Ruto had raised similar sentiments last week.

        The Eldoret North MP, who was campaigning in Narok, said they would soon name the foreign countries.

        “What I said in an earlier press release was the truth and I’m not going to repeat it again,” he said in Suswa area.

        Juja MP William Kabogo, who accompanied Mr Kenyatta, claimed Western forces were working out a scheme to postpone the elections to bar Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto from contesting the presidency.

        “We are collecting all these facts, and we will know who is behind the scheme and we will tell Kenyans to reject the ploy,” said Mr Kabogo.

        During a recent visit to the country, former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan cautioned Kenyans against electing leaders whose integrity were questionable, saying it would have negative implications for Kenya’s foreign relations.

        http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Uhuru-alleges-plot-to-delay-polls/-/1064/1623546/-/596tikz/-/index.html

  7. Folks,

    The elections are less than 4 months away. we have been treated to lots of drama with some politicians not sure what party they belong to, forming alliances, having endless night meetings, forming alliances within alliances… all with zero net effect.

    Bringing in a stranger from another party and planting him/her as the running mate will not work because bonafide members are eyeing the same position. I don’t know how other parties plan to nominate the running mate, so let me talk about ODM. How does one convince delegates that a stranger like Kalonzo or Mudavadi is the best when kina Bett, Kosgey, Sally etc have stuck with the party through good and bad times? Trying to bring in a non-politician to fill this slot is even worse. (our democracy is not yet mature for this kind of arrangement). I think the time for pre-election pacts is over and parties will have to pick their running mates from within. good suggestions but let us all remember these timelines:

    1) Persons in party lists to be members of parties – October 17, 2012, three months to nominations.

    2) Deadline for independent candidates not to belong to any political parties – December 4, 2012 or three months before elections.

    3) Independent Candidates submit symbols for approval – December 2012, twenty one days before IEBC nomination day.

    4) Submission of party membership list – January 4, 2013, two months before elections.

    5) Political parties nominations (primaries) – January 18, 2013 or 45 days to elections

    • 🙂 is it possible to edit after posting a comment? NO – sorry

      should have said time for pre-election pacts is over. We are here for you – fixed, Blog-Admin

      Also thanks for the additional timeline milestones, will update the elections calendar

      • admin,

        thanks for pointing that out. of course the wakoras changed the original act in order to serve their full term without any legal challenge. January 4th is coming up and i suspect the wheels will still be spinning on the same spot.

    • akinyi,

      I get your point about dragging strangers into the party at the last minute. ODM has the assets to come with a fairly descent Deputy. But they have to understand that the deputy can win you the presidency and sometimes can be completely disastrous. Look at the Obama Romney battle. Many will argue that Romney chossing Paul Ryan was a blunder of huge proportions. Ryan is the author of the Tea Party budget in Congress which scared the hell out of seniors. Before Ryan Romney had 2-1 lead on seniors, the GOP voting machine. After Ryan the margin disappeared and in some states Obama took the lead with the seniors. Without Ryan Romney had a shot in Florida after Ryan Florida bacame a tough war and they lost it. Ryan could not even help win his own state of Wisconsin. On the other hand Portman, the governor of Ohio could possibly have helped them win Ohio since he is well respected down there. So we know that the other person in the ticket can make a big difference. Of course John McCain knows all that better than anybody else.

      In our case the only reason one would even bother with names like Mudavadi and Kalonzo is that they do have a constituency(however) which they know does not have a shot in hell of taking them anywhere but home after the elections.

      But you are right about one thing Kenyans are getting dizzy about these alliances and re-alliances and all the noise.

      In terms of timing I think the pre-election pacts allow parties to come up with nomination deals and even that is lapsing in a week or two. My suspicion is that those who bother with them will make them very vague like just say the two parties agree to a joint nomination process. Even that is very hard to agree on.

      The thing that is going for ODM right now is that Uhuru and Ruto want to grab this thing with kufua and take that kifua to the ICC. When Kenyans were just musing about it a long time ago it looked not so scary. The closer we get the more ridiculous the whole thing looks. Beating Uhuru and Ruto is looking like the easiest thing ODM can do now but many would say rightly or wrongly that they are better off doing that if they combine all the fire power out there. But knowing our politicians expect Kalonzo and Mudavadi to hold out for Uhuru and Ruto to drop off, something they very well still may do when the heat comes and it is coming in all its fury.

      But ODM has its options or better still they are blessed with very desperate rivals. One group has been cheated and left on the side walk and the other group is praying and hoping that Kenyans are ready to throw their country under the bus for two individuals. So when you have your best shots in full view it is good to be sure you make them.

      • adongo,

        You are right, ODM is ahead of the game since the process of choosing the running mate is clearly spelt out in its constitution. all i can say is that let the chips fall where they may after kina phil (delegates) make their choice. One thing i know is that this is a big headache for the major parties and not just ODM.

        the parties have to get it right, since the right running mate can make the difference between a win and a loss. the VP’s post is largely ceremonial but i hope kenyans realize that the role of the vice president is crucial, since he or she is second in command, and must step in if illness, death or the ICC prevents the president from serving. picture a eugene wamalwa as president when uhuru is in the dock.

        Won’t say anything about other parties but I hope the ODM presidential nominee is given a running mate who:

        1) is a lot like themselves ideologically – no watermelons or fence-sitters please.

        2) appeals to the ‘other side’ – might be worth considering geographical location, gender, age etc.

        talking of the Romney/Ryan disaster, i wish we had a similar situation where the presidential nominee would choose a running mate, who would then receive the support of the party in a symbolic vote during the NDC.

      • akinyi,
        The constitution has completely messed it up for the party hoppers and running mate wannabes. The greatest headache is that the president and his running mate must be from the same party unless Uhuru cousin the AG Mr. Githu attempts to (mis)interpret it another way.

        Those who have already defected such as Ruto and Mudavadi would look like fools if they defected again to another party. Worse still defecting to become a running mate while one could have been the same in ODM is mind boggling. Lastly as Phil asserts, it’s going to be a hard sell. Who is going to buy the crap of Ruto decamping with supports to TNA or decamping but leaving his supporters in a now empty shell called URP?

        Adongo is right when he says that the Uhuruto combo that was designed and marketed by the duo and their followers as the most formidable force now seems to be the most vulnerable. It’s so exposed that its owners dare not sign any pact for fear of being thrown into the dustbin of politics. They have bought a rope; the question is whether they want to hang together or separately. Ruto might simply be shown dust in his own backyard. What a pity it would. But that’s his business.

        Kenyans fear these guys like hell. The fact that they want to be on a joint ticket has set tongues waggling and people are busy discussing the implication of having a fugitive as president. People are even more worried about their investments suffering irreparable loss should the duo turn Kenya into a pariah state. Its looks as if Kenyans have at last figured out the full intention and implications of the Uhuru /Ruto presidency. Simply put, it’s going to be a disaster for the country. Are Kenyans going to let this happen? I don’t think so.

        There was a time Mudavadi was talking about collective guilt but he too has run away from that bull. What more, it’s not only Raila talking about the ICC suspects, other leaders such as Martha Karua are even more blant. She say, “Who on earth would even hire a shamba boy facing a criminal charge due to the time such a suspect would spend attending court at the expense of his core business”.

        Bonyeza hapa.

        http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000070611&story_title=Kenya-Karua-tells-voters-to-reject-Ruto,-Uhuru-bids

  8. Einstein,
    I agree. There is no need for ODM to get a running mate from outside the party. The party has enough men and women who can occupy that position.

    The issue of running around trying to look for someone outside the party is very dangerous. For example, if ODM started negotiating with WDP, we will end up with the exact same scenario as we had when both Raila and Kalonzo were in ODM-K. It might end up not working while at the same alienating current part adherents e.g. those ardent supporters from North and South Rift. In my opinion, it’s not worth it.
    Any deals that ODM makes should be post-election. Many egos should have been crushed by then and people would have no choice but to align themselves with the two parties remaining in the race.

    IF ODM has to beat the Uhuruto combination, it MUST, repeat MUST have a running mate from the former RVP. Even the good old Henry Kosgey or Sally Kosgei would do the trick of checkmating Ruto. In this respect the party has no other choice.

  9. A lot depends on the decision on whether the running mate will be from the same party or if a pre-election merger or coalition document will have already been put in place joining one or more parties together. The merger will mean one party has the commanding say in the coalition, aka TNA will completely swallow Ruto and URP

    The whole idea of G7’s 2nd best for a post-election coalition was a clever ploy so as to bargain with whoever wins of the two strongest candidates. They are totally aware that they cannot win this thing, but because of uncertainty, cannot tie themselves and therefore their community to a party and risk the massive fallout if that particular party loses (the mantra being that they have promised the community to take them into the ruling government). The applies to and holds true for Ruto, Kalonzo, Ngilu, Wamalwa and Mudavadi

    The front runners Raila and Uhuru have resigned themselves to the fact that one will be president while the other will most likely have little influence.

    The other non-affiliated candidates such as Karua, Kenneth and what not will go into this with blind faith, and will then pick up the pieces thereafter. Already Karua is in a rut. With Mungatana’s defection to TNA, Githae firmly in TNA, Sonko, and nearly 70% of current NARC-K MPs in TNA, it would appear that NARC-K will be whitewashed in former central province, she will most likely loose her Kirinyaga seat as well. But perhaps will have a seat or two out there somewhere. Her position will closely mirror Muite’s past 5 years as leader of Safina while out.
    Peter Kenneth will likely retain Gatanga but in a hostile province and either he will have to go tribal, fold-up or suddenly grow horns and start fighting the kingdom from within. Either way, he’ll be done

    But back to this contest. Sooner or later, tough decisions will have to be made. So far the MPs continue to have a field day, amending laws that allow them party hopping, retirement benefits etc. They (G7 underdogs) will definitely try to resist and fight a finalised pre-election pact since that will totally dent the sway and hold they have over their communities. Plus deny them any chance of forming post election deals such as the “sweetheart deal” that Wiper got.

    In an odd sort of way, Ruto has the shortest straw, basically he is stuck with Uhuru with very little choice. Everyone else has nothing tying them to TNA except of course for the free flowing money and following the nonsense from central province about Raila.

    Something in the wind suggests that December/January are going to witness some really strange political movement as reality dawns and the people start to see through the fog.

    • The running mate issue is going to be a big game changer for Raila and for very complicated reasons. The polls show that Raila can beat the Uhuruto team, something the boys did not have a plan B for. The Uhuruto mob thinking is grounded on the tribal math that some people have overdosed on for too long. Also remember if and when Uhuru and Ruto run and lose which is looking very likely the winners do not owe them anything and their path to the Hague will paved in stone. Here are a few things ODM should chew on as they look for a suitable running mate to beat Uhuru and Ruto.

      1. The announcement by Uhuru and Ruto that they are running on one ticket has spooked the country. Kenyans are today actively debating the consequences of a pariah state with all the sanctions and diplomatic isolation that will come with it. Remember the only way Uhuru and Ruto can run the country is by defying the ICC. The upusi of running the government while at The Hague is a bad joke.

      2. The double whammy of both the president and the deputy being ICC bound suspects has got the country to sit up and people are asking why Uhuru and Ruto are doing this. Is it really because they love the country and they are the only hope for Kenya or is it because they are ready throw the country to the dogs for their own selfish interest? That debate is just beginning and the more we approach 2013 and reality sets in there are going to be very many loud voices rejecting the idea of sacrificing the country for two people.

      3. As a result of 1 & 2 above what at first looked like a formidable force of Uhuru and Ruto combined nows looks as the most vulnerable and easy to beat probably in round one. The question is who can stop them and the answer increasingly looks like the person to stop them is Raila and that explains the endless wars they have had against him.

      4. For 3 above to happen ODM needs to very soberly look into their number two slot. It is particularly important for ODM because Raila is approaching age 70. That makes him vulnerable and Kenyans need to know that he has a steady Deputy who can take over anytime. Raila has also indicated if he wins he will be a one term president that means the second slot is half way in the door of State House although anything else can happen.

      5. A starting point is the Kalonzo or Mudavadi option for the obvious reason that both those amigos are going nowhere after Uhuru and Ruto chose to go it on their own and just wanted flower girls as they call them. Both those two guys can do good with ODM for one big reason. They both come from the conservative side of our political dynamics. They are “harmless” to the status quo and will somehow a ssure them that Raila will not be a loose cannon. Also the safe hands can take over anytime should something happen to Raila.

      Why are we even talking about this? Because whether we like it or not the conservative reactionary side of politics is half the country if not more. They too are Kenyans. Those are the people terrified by a Raila presidency. They don’t care too much about Uhuru and Ruto. They care more about their own interests.

      If this is the way to go then I would suggest Kalonzo as the V.P and Mudavadi for the governor of Nairobi. If these guys pull their numbers they can win with that ticket calm things down, run the country for five years and then help facilitate with the germination of the of the new seeds in Kenyan politics.

      In my thinking the 2013 elections will be the last time we are stuck with these establishment figures. After that we are set to go and that is when there will be openings for the likes of Peter Keneth and others outside our radar now. In this round we are stuck with these guys and we need at least a viable and selfless combo. They would walk all over Uhuru and Ruto who are being seen as selfish and reckless and ready to destroy the country for their own selfish concerns.

      The scenario I am talking about will need very mature politics. The tribal equation has to be out in the back burner. It is not be a question of which tribe gets what. It has to be what is good for the country, put it on the table and Kenyans will look at their options. The arrogance of Uhuru and Ruto with their poltiics of me myself and I has put Kenyans into a situation where if a credible team comes up and tell us here this is what we are ready to do for the country and not for our own selfish interests they will carry the day. That is the beauty of this Uhuruto ticket. It is its own worst enemy and for once Kenyans are not interested of all the makelele about ICC. They have figured if these guys are as innocent as they claim why not just go there and clear their names. Why would they rather mess the country than sort their problems. That is a very helpful debate for the soul of the country.

      6. Within ODM there are also good options and I would go with the younger guys. They are not many. The Kosgey, Franklin Bett option I am not so sure will work. There is Sally Kosgei who is coming back from self isolation. It would be great for ODM to have a solid female candidate on the ticket but it has to be someone who is ready to be president on day one. We can’t have a Sarah Palin situation which helped McCain to lose in 2008.

      7. The best option for me would be ODM negotiating and picking a seasoned professional out there who has not dubbed in politics at all. Dr. Kipngetich formerly of KWS and now with Equity Bank comes to mind. I have no idea if he would be interested but you pick someone like that, get your party to support them and they bring fresh professional angle to the ticket and you win this thing straight up. Kenyans are dying for something fresh in their politics. It is not going to come to us the Obama style but it can be facilitated by someone like Raila picking a running mate outside the box.

      So there we go. That is my 2 cents.

      • Bw Adongo, I agree with many things you say but I totally disagree with the Raila ONE TERM propaganda.

        I would be happy to see footage or a link on Raila Odinga Presidential Campaign website where he has categorically stated he is going for one term. The truth is that there is none. Raila’s age and the one term promise are propaganda being advanced by media in Kenya.

        Kenyatta and Kibaki were not young men when they took over the presidency of this country. When Moi started his own 10 year term in 1992, he too was advanced in years. All of them were older than what Raila is now. All went on to serve full terms.

        Apart from that, and after critically studying the candidates vision for Kenya, it is obvious that some of those programs cannot be implemented in a single term.

        Raila is not going for one term.

      • phil,

        We can have that debate. Not a problem. The scenario I was suggesting there is for ODM and Raila to get a winning formula seeing how vulnerable the ICC combo has become. As ther vote approaches the pressure on those guys to drop out of the race altogether is going to be defeaning. The good news is these guys are going all the way. Their new found hobby is visiting regional leaders which tells you they are getting ready for the pariah state. That is their death bed. Kenyans are not going there with them and that is why I am saying the time to beat these guys fair and sqaure and send them quietly to The Hague is now.

        In order for that to happen Raila ODM has to unite the country around its common interests as a nation. We have interests as a country and they are dear to Kenyans. Raila was right a long time ago when he said ultimately the next election is between the merchants of impunity and the rest of the nation to save Kenya from sinking in the hole with two people.

        Considering all these things I think Raila as a transitional leader, which suits him perfectly, should not be out of the table. Raila can help the country transform itself from the politics of selfish grand interests and super egos of a few individuals to a nation where what is good for the country is supreme above all else.

        In my view a one term presidency will be an indication that unlike Kibaki and his selfishness Raila is ready to work with a new team as a transition leader and then he can quit while still walking.

        As I pointed out an outside the box running mate will be great but politics being what it is we should not rule out Kalonzo and Mudavadi. Also remember the ICC chaps are in a panic mode and they may very well throw in the towel the last minute and I bet you that is what Kalonzo and Mudavadi are banking on. They may want to soldier on and hope that Uhuru and Ruto recover from their present state of complete insanity.

        The other piece I haven’t had time to look into is the fact that in as much as Raila and the ODM may look for a non scary name on the the deputy slot to appease the status quo elements and somothen the path to a transitional government, ODM and Raila in particular has to seriously reach out to the progressive constituency in the country. It is a powerful group in our politics even though they may not have the big voting block. That constituency needs a presence on the table and a voice in the ODM platform beyond 2013.

        So that is Raila’s biggest challenge. Work with the more conservative elements because they are part of the country but also bring in the progressive voices which represent the future of our country. The way Kenyans have embraced Dr. Mutunga and the reforms in the judiciary has put to shame those tired voices who always argue that “activists” have no clout in the country. They do and the genuine ones are deeply respected in the country. If Dr. Mutunga was to resign from the CJ’s job and run for the presidency he would win it in his sleep.

        But that grassroot of networks to fight impunity and put on the table real changes for Kenyans is very much needed and not just party politics. If ODM can build its ground team with that and invigorate their party ground work they will win this thing. Look at Barack Obama’s ground work. It shocked and dwarfed the G.O.P with their sheer efficiency and ruthless execution of their plans. Nothing left to chance. We need that and time is running out. Right now there should be an efficient ground game to get all young Kenyans ready to register to vote. Just making those statements in rallies makes no difference. Help them get I.Ds and ready be registered.

  10. Below are the different scenarios as reported by The Standard on the same.

    But my question really is whether or not ODM needs an alliance with another party and hence must ‘import’ a running mate from outside the ODM in order to win the elections?

    I personally would prefer a running mate from within the ODM itself. These alliances are going to be a headache when it comes to implementing ODM’s manifesto.

    But what do I know.

    Polls: Uhuru, Raila running mate options

    ew poll predicts if Odinga manages to get Kalonzo or Mudavadi to be running mate he will triumph over Kenyatta-Ruto coalition

    The latest opinion poll paints a picture where to get to State House Uhuru Kenyatta must cling to Eldoret North MP William Ruto for running mate at whatever cost.

    Like the polls on last week’s US election between President Barack Obama and Republican’s Mitt Romney, Infotrak’s research says the race will be very close with the winner and loser separated by between two and four percentage points; but only if the other three aspirants, Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Ruto — switch their support for either of Raila or Uhuru, but not all of them behind one candidate.

    Kalonzo, Mudavadi and Ruto — switch their support for either of Raila or Uhuru, but not all of them behind one candidate.

    It also showed that despite the hiccup that beset procurement of Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) kits, 77 per cent of Kenyans still believe that Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) is prepared for the national exercise on March 4 next year.

    But the Infotrak poll also forecasts that if elections were held today, Prime Minister Raila Odinga would beat Uhuru were he to pick Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka, Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi or Ruto as a running mate by taking 52 per cent of the vote.

    However, in all the cases the win will be dependent on whether these aspirants, who have declared they would remain in the race to the end, will agree to drop their bid for State House.

    But if Raila teams up with Musalia and Uhuru’s running mate is Kalonzo, the PM will win by 52 per cent against Uhuru’s 48 per cent even if the Gatundu South MP teams up with Kalonzo or Ruto.

    The Infotrak poll carried out in October also revealed a Raila-Ruto ticket would also beat the one featuring Uhuru and Kalonzo by a similar margin, while Raila-Mudavadi will get 52 per cent as opposed to Uhuru-Ruto at 48 per cent.

    A Raila-Mudavadi ticket will still win, albeit with a reduced victory margin of 51 per cent as opposed to the one of Uhuru and Kalonzo at 49 per cent in a two horse race.

    But it is the scenario featuring Raila and Kalonzo that will generate a lot of interest; now that talk is rife the two are geared towards presenting a joint ticket with the latter as the running mate. With the falling out of the Wiper Democratic Party with the G7 Alliance, Kalonzo seems to be heading for a possible merger with either Raila or Mudavadi.

    The poll also revealed Kalonzo would boost Raila’s support in the Coast and North Eastern regions, while votes in Nairobi and Nyanza remained constantly high for PM regardless of who his running mate is.

    Another poll released by Infotrak on Friday, showed that a Raila-Kalonzo coalition would gain 66 per cent and 63 per cent against an Uhuru-Ruto coalition in Nairobi and Nyanza respectively.

    A Raila-Ruto coalition would garner 80 per cent and 65 per cent against an Uhuru-Kalonzo ticket in the regions respectively.

    The beneficiaries

    The same poll indicated that a Raila-Musalia ticket would be at 74 per cent and 65 per cent against Uhuru-Ruto ticket and a Raila- Musalia coalition would get 76 per cent and 64 per cent against Uhuru Kalonzo coalition.

    In yesterday’s poll, it was revealed that should Uhuru and Ruto face Raila, it would only capture 28 per cent of the total votes in Coast Province, North Eastern (17), Nyanza (34), Eastern (46) and Nairobi at 37 per cent respectively.

    But interestingly, the poll predicted Uhuru would win a two-horse race with Raila if the PM has Speaker Kenneth Marende, Kenya National Congress aspirant Peter Kenneth or Water Minister Charity Ngilu by between four and eight percentage points.

    It goes ahead to predict that if Uhuru and Ruto aren’t running and Raila teams up with Kalonzo, while on the Uhuru-Ruto axis, Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa is the candidate and Ngilu the running mate, Odinga will win at 67 per cent against the Wamalwa-Ngilu ticket projected 33 per cent of the votes cast.

    Raila would also beat a Mudavadi-Ngilu combination if he picks ODM chairman Henry Kosgey as running mate by 56 per cent against the other pair’s 44 per cent.

    The biggest beneficiary of votes if any of the top three presidential candidates do not run would be Mudavadi who would gain 27, 20 and 13 per cent from Raila, Ruto and Uhuru respectively.

    The poll showed in case of Uhuru’s absence his votes would go to Ruto, Kalonzo, Musalia, Narc-Kenya party leader Martha Karua, Kenneth and Raila at 34, 12, 12, 9, 5 and 2 per cent respectively. Ruto’s 10.3 per cent votes would be shared among Uhuru (28 per cent), Mudavadi (20), Raila (16), Kalonzo (11) and Wamalwa (2) in that order. Raila, who has the highest presidential percentage at 35.4 per cent, would have his majority votes go to Mudavadi at 27 per cent and Uhuru would get the least votes from him at 5 per cent.

    Infotrak polls last Friday indicated PM maintained his lead with 35.4 per cent.

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000070445&story_title=Kenya-Polls:-Uhuru,-Raila-running-mate-options

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