Opinion polls – Kenya

I find some questions in this polls very strange I will comment more later but what hit me first was the two questions that should be very confusing if in the same questionaire.

(1) “Of all the possible presidential candidates, which one would make you most
unhappy if she or he won the election?” (By Total)

(2) “Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom
would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” (By Total)

Have a peep at how people answered and react.

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73 comments on “Opinion polls – Kenya

  1. Ladies and gentlemen of DC. In my final submission I call it for CORD.

    CORD = 51%
    Jubilee = 46%

    There will be no run off.
    The boost in numbers comes from Rift Valley and Central Province as things have shifted immensely.

  2. http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/Raila-and-Uhuru-in-tight-race-poll-shows/-/1631868/1705518/-/8e5956z/-/index.html

    Raila Odinga and Uhuru Kenyatta are locked in a neck and neck race heading into the last five days of Monday’s General Election.

    According to three opinion polls commissioned by the Nation Media Group, a run off between Mr Odinga of the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) and Mr Kenyatta (Jubilee) is inevitable.

    The polls show that Mr Odinga would win during the second round of voting, largely benefitting from Musalia Mudavadi’s supporters. Mr Mudavadi of the Amani coalition is tipped to claim third position in the March 4 General Election.

    Pollster Consumer Insight places Mr Odinga popularity at 46.8pc with Mr Kenyatta approval rating at 44.3pc. Mr Mudavadi manages 4.2pc.

    According to Strategic Research, Mr Odinga would garner 45.7pc of the votes cast while Mr Kenyatta would manage 43.8pc). Mr Mudavadi would attract 5.7pc

    Infotrak Research and Consulting reported that Mr Odinga would get 46.0pc with his closest challenger Mr Kenyatta polling 44.5pc. Mr Mudavadi would manage 4.3pc.

    In the event of a run off, Cord’s Odinga would win with Consumer Insight reporting that he would amass 50.6pc of the vote against Mr Kenyatta’s 46.3pc.

    In the Strategic Research poll, Mr Odinga would get 51.7pc in the second round compared to Mr Kenyatta’s 45.7pc.

    Infotrak Research and Consulting predicts a Mr Odinga run off win with the Cord presidential candidate garnering 49.5pc against Mr Kenyatta’s 47.2pc.

    • `
      AFRICOG has taken another pre-election poll which puts Raila ahead, and has him winning a run-off. It’s on a word document I can’t upload here for now.

      1. Previous undecided voters in Western and Coast are breaking for Raila.

      2. In Rift Valley, Uhuru has lost some ground…both to Raila and to the undecided column.

      3. Nairobi has broken clearly towards Raila’s column.

      4. The irony of the digital-analogue divide; It is younger Kenyans (under 40) that are overwhelmingly carrying Raila.

      5. Raila leads in virtually all former provinces except Central and Rift Valley.

      6. The momentum is clearly going for CORD…the perfect way to close an election (just like Obama did).

      7. Uhuru’s “willing buyer, willing seller” comment…taunting dispossessed local squatters who never sold their land…has proved to be a vote-killer for Uhuru…including in the Rift Valley.

      I suspect CORD is lingering around the 50% mark…maybe just maybe…there won’t be need for a run-off. In case it heads to a run-off, the AFRICOG Poll is clearly unanimous in how it trends…Raila wins hands-down.

  3. Factors that might influence outcome

    By TOM WOLF

    In Summary
    Issues that could tilt election either way are often difficult to measure, including possible vote-buying, sympathy for the “underdog” and the ICC

    As could have been predicted, the recent period leading up to the General Election has witnessed a number of commentaries on public issue survey research/opinion polls.

    Those that find fault with our work (even when authored by academics or statisticians) are generally riddled with misconceptions and even blatant errors.

    They blame us for not doing things that we do (like providing the exact sampling methodology, outlining margin-of-error, poor wording of questions, not doing a sufficient number of back-checks to ensure that the identified respondents really were interviewed — and that their recorded answers are genuine and other such).

    They also blame us for things we do not do (like restricting our interviews to certain sections of the population, having too small a sample to produce reliable results, slanting our results to suit the wishes of our “pipers” — clients or “favoured” candidates).

    The fact that the “mainstream” firms, all members of the Market and Social Research Association (MSRA) of Kenya, strive to adhere to clearly defined professional standards – and all offer open invitations for the personal inspection of our operations – is often conveniently ignored.

    Those of us in the industry have thus taken heart from the efforts media professionals have made by enhancing their skills so as to more keenly interrogate our work and more accurately communicate our findings to the public.

    Whether this is a consequence of efforts to avoid running afoul of the requirements of The Publication of Political Opinion Polls Act (2012), one consequence of such efforts, as well as of the general accuracy of the polls, is that the public has come to accord them considerable credibility and may make more strategic use of them, especially in the context of a close contest, such as we appear to have at present.

    The Key Questions

    Yet, as we finally approach election day itself, there are a number of factors that caution against rushing to assume that even the final poll numbers, and however large the sample size, can accurately predict the actual outcome.

    And here I should pose what I think everyone would agree are the main questions about the March 4 presidential contest:

    (1) Will any candidate obtain enough votes, spread out over enough counties, to achieve a first-round victory? (2) If not, how close to that requirement will even the first-place pair of candidates get? (3) What will be the margin between them and their nearest (second-place) challengers?

    Why the Polls Could be Wrong: Factor number 1 – Voter Turn-Out

    Beyond any major/surprising events during the final days of the campaigns (such as performance in the final presidential debate) that could change some voters’ intentions, the most obvious is voter turn-out which historically has varied significantly across different parts of the country.

    While past performance is no guarantee of this being repeated, it could give an advantage to the Jubilee ticket. In this connection, any tensions or violence that cause fear could depress the vote in such areas, most probably among women.

    Factor #2: Survey Respondents = Actual Voters?

    Another factor that has arisen regarding recent polls is the over-proportion of selected respondents (about 95 per cent) claiming to be registered voters when only about two-thirds of those eligible are, according to IEBC figures.

    But even if up to a third of our respondents are not, does this mean that their answers, especially regarding presidential voting preferences, are significantly different from respondents who actually did register?

    While there is no reason (based on the accuracy of most polls in past elections/the two constitutional referenda) to assume this could distort the overall survey results, once again, the past is not always a guide to the future.

    In addition, while the IEBC figures are available for each parliamentary constituency, they do not indicate the age, gender, ethnic or other demographic characteristics of those registered and which might have an impact on whether they will vote or not, and if so, for whom. Our samples may thus not precisely mirror the registered-voter population.

    Factor #3: Votes ‘Theft’/’’ ‘Capture’/‘Revision’ Before March 4

    Vote-buying could also “distort” the result indicated by polls, though accepting any material “gift” does not necessarily mean the “promised” vote will be forthcoming: recall the 2002 opposition motto of ‘Kula kwa Kanu, Kura kwa Narc’!

    Nevertheless, there have been some reports of the “buying” of ID cards which could likewise depress voter turn-out, since even with the new biometric registration system, an accepted form of self-identification is still required to get past the IEBC polling station clerks.

    Beyond these tactics, various forms of social pressure at the local level, even at the “last minute”, could also re-direct actual votes so as to alter the percentage-distributions of intentions expressed in even “late-hour” (and accurate) pre-election survey interviews.

    Factor #4: Respondent ‘Honesty’ and The ICC Issue

    Another factor, and one unique to this election, is the fact that one pair of candidates — Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto — are ICC defendants. Surveys indicate that about 90 per cent of registered voters are aware of this fact. This might affect Jubilee ticket supporters in either (or both) of two ways.

    Given the charges against them for “international crimes”, some respondents might not admit to a survey interviewer that they will vote for this team, and instead either mention a different one, or say they are still “undecided”, yet vote for them on March 4.

    Conversely, however positively they view this team’s leadership potential, some respondents may declare an intention to vote for them but have last-minute qualms about the possible repercussions of “an ICC-defendant” government and not do so, instead voting for another presidential candidate-pair, or for none at all. We simply don’t know.

    Although in a totally different context, we should recall the US Democratic Party’s state of New Hampshire primary election contest between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama early in 2008, when more than a dozen polling firms forecast an Obama win, shortly after which he lost, and by a sizable margin.

    Subsequent research revealed the explanation: a significant number of respondents were embarrassed to admit (even in an anonymous telephone interview) that Obama’s nusu-nusu racial identity was unacceptable to them and therefore they voted for Clinton.

    Factor #5: Expectation of a Run-Off and Admiration or Support for the ‘Underdogs’

    A final potential factor is the impact of voter-intention poll results themselves. While no evidence has emerged in Kenya’s recent voting history to suggest they cause any measurable change, again, this cannot be ruled out.

    Specifically, the second round run-off provision in the Constitution puts us in new, uncharted territory. That is, if enough voters are convinced (by the polls) that neither of the two leading candidates can win in the first round, they might decide to “enjoy” the “luxury” of having a second round by giving their first-round vote to one of the other, “minor” candidates.

    They could do this either because they are convinced he or she could actually perform best as president, and/or because they believe that obtaining a significant vote-share in this election — even if far below what is required to get into a run-off, would boost their chances in a future contest (assuming that person decides to run again). To the extent this happens, it could result in a significant vote-drop for both of leading candidates on the first round, making the necessity of a run-off even more likely.

    The Main Goal: Kenya’s Electoral Democracy

    But as I have stressed, all of the above is speculation. In practical terms, in order for anyone to attempt to measure any of these factors post-election (and especially since it appears no national exit poll shall be conducted as was the case in 2007), the relevant electoral machinery (including not just the IEBC but also the security services, political parties, observers, and ordinary citizens) must deliver a credible, uncontested set of results.

    While restoring credibility — and thus legitimacy — to the electoral process after the debacle of 2007-8 is a far more important goal than is any research objective related to pre-election polls, voting behaviour, or the study of politics more broadly, being able to pursue any of the latter depends absolutely on the achievement of the former.

    Dr Wolf is a Research Analyst at IPSOS-Synovate

    http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/Factors-that-might-influence-outcome/-/1631868/1702796/-/11ypool/-/index.html

    • Last polls are interesting. But first it couldn’t escape my attention how funny our media can be especially the NMG. A few days ago when the polls were Raila 44.4% Uhuru 44.8%, the heading Raila overtakes Raila in the polls. The emphasis was on the fact that Uhuru was leading and their lackeys were screaming all over.

      Now the heading is that the polls are tied. Of course they are but Raila is leading in all the three polls. That is the news here and he is projected to win the run off if any in all the three polls.

      Here it is:

      http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/Small-gains-for-Raila-and-Uhuru-in-polls—/-/1631868/1705676/-/qe22yt/-/index.html

      The significance of this polls is that they are all pretty much coming with same numbers including the Uhuru friendly Consumer Insight which actually gives Raila the bigger lead.

      Even the tribal quacks have to agree our polls have been pretty accurate onthe average.

      My take away is that CORD will win this election, either in round one or round two but they have to get every voter they can get to the voting booth. Not all pollsters can make up the same story. But turnout is the key.

      • The Daily Nation is desperately trying to influence public opinion with their slanted reporting. The obvious heading would be that – Odinga likely to win run-off, because all polls show him doing that.

        With these final polls, it is clear that Raila is still ahead; and likely to win the run-off. Watch this space.

  4. Tyranny of Numbers Part 2: This time starring AHMEDNASIR ABDULLAHI

    Opinion polls are a hoax; don’t believe them

    In Summary
    Oblivious: Pollsters don’t take into account the fact that tribe will be the biggest determinant of who wins the presidency

    A cruel hoax is being recklessly but gleefully played on innocent Kenyans. This hoax is the self-serving computer-generated numbers touted as opinion polls by pollsters.

    These pollsters, if one blindly believes them, are showing that the two leading presidential candidates are tied and we should prepare for a second round of voting. Nothing could be further from the truth.

    These polls are utter nonsense and I refuse to believe one single one. I am a religious believer in pollsters, but credible ones that use science and not fiction, black magic or fantasy.

    In the last American presidential elections, my sole source of polls was Nate Silver who writes his FiveThirtyEight column for the New York Times. He got it right in all 50 states, right to the decimal.

    The March 4 presidential election will be determined by two factors, and the pollsters are oblivious to both.

    First, the tribal base of the two presidential candidates and their running mates will be the biggest determinant. This is what I call the engagement of the primary tribes. These primary tribes dominate Central, Nairobi, Eastern, Nyanza and the Rift Valley.

    They account for about 60 per cent of the electoral vote. The primary tribes will land the decisive blow in the contest.

    Here, the contest is heavily tilted in favour of Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate, Mr William Ruto. In this regard, Mr Raila Odinga and Mr Kalonzo Musyoka will bring to the ballot box about 3.5 million of their two primary tribes from across the country. Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto will between them bring 6.6 million votes from their primary tribes.

    In the contest between the primary tribes, Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka have a huge mountain to climb. The numerical advantage enjoyed by Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto is the most pivotal and one-sided determinant factor in any election in the history of this country.

    The tragedy for Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka is that since the primary tribes cast their ballot on a tribal basis, they are rationally powerless to influence and mitigate their crippling disadvantage in this regard.

    The second determinant factor is the swing tribes in other parts of the country. The swing tribes are the secondary tribes in the contest.

    The secondary tribes don’t have a tribesman with any realistic chance of winning, or have none at all in the presidential contest. These tribes, for the purposes of the election, are good Kenyans, uninfluenced by tribal fever or madness in their choice. They are rational, pragmatic and calculating.

    It is the fight over the votes of the secondary tribes that has the potential to mitigate Mr Odinga’s and Mr Musyoka’s disadvantage. The most numerous of the secondary tribes are the Luhya, Kisii and those in the Coast province.

    In western Kenya, Mr Musalia Mudavadi’s absence from the ballot would have made that community probably a primary tribe in Mr Odinga’s column.

    For Mr Odinga to recover the deficit he suffers in the primary tribes’ contest, he must get 100 per cent of the votes cast in western Kenya, Coast, northern Kenya and in Kisii Nyanza.

    That might sound unrealistic, but only the happening of such a difficult feat will take the contest into the second round. The more realistic but unhelpful forecast is that Mr Odinga is the odds on favourite to win these regions with percentages ranging from 50 to 70 per cent of the vote.

    Some Kenyans refuse to appreciate the obvious. We are a society that is tribal in our manifestations.

    There is nothing wrong with being tribal at this point in our political evolution. It is both natural and human. The contest between the two is a zero-sum tussle between four primary tribes and their supporting cast.

    Ahmednasir Abdullahi is the publisher, Nairobi Law Monthly. ahmednasir@nairobilawmonthly.com

    http://elections.nation.co.ke/Blogs/Opinion-polls-are-a-hoax-dont-believe-them/-/1632026/1702594/-/x98u9iz/-/index.html

    • Some people should rest in shame come March 5, 2013 and Ahmednasir Abdullahi is one of them. They want to condemn Kenya to perpetual tribalism. They think we should celebrate tribalism and embrace it as our national idealogy and religion. They are going to fail this time. Then we can talk.

      • Adongo,
        I think that people such Abdinassir, a well-known Raila hater only second to Mutahi Ngunyi in such hate will have commit suicide after 4th February or go into self-exile.

        The so called tyranny numbers are not working out and this something they are yet to grasp. Yes, the Kalenjins plus Agikuyu stand at 30% of registered voters. But that’s 20+1% short of the 50+1 threshold. But even if registered voters from the two communities stood at 40% they will still need 10+1% more to win. But even the above numbers will only work if all voters from both communities voted like sheep for Uhuru. Since we all know that its human beings and not sheep that are going to vote they wont even come close to the above numbers. As long as Abdinassir cannot understand this simple arithmetic then he is due to wallow in ignorance for a long time to come

      • mzee,

        The situation in Rift Valley has not sunk in for most of them. They see those huge crowds Raila and CORD team is drawing in places like Kericho, Baringo, Elgeyo Marakwet and they can’t figure it out. Even Ruto is stunned as to why Raila still has such energetic following. They have tried the heckling nonsense but it has zero impact. Uhuru has his Kikuyu base yes, but the Kalenjin crowd is elusive. They will get some but CORD will get 30-40% of that vote. As it is they only need about 20%. They will get that and then some.

        I was talking to the guys in the belly of the lion and what they are looking at now are mechanisms to ensure that their voters in Rift Valley get to the voting booth. They are leaving nothing to chance. If they get those voters out there they will seal this thing. Expect Ruto to go crazy in Rift Valley in the last week. When he sees those crowds waving ODM colours as if this is 2007, it drives him nuts.

        CORD is in the Coast today but I suspect they will sweep through Rift Valley one more time before heading to Western and back to Nairobi. Raila’s energy has been great. Someone like Bett has emerged as a real asset for CORD. Muthama is also a work horse on the Kalonzo side.

        Tomorrow’s debate will also have some impact ironically enough because the other contender has chickened out. Running away from the people you want to lead is a very bad idea. Doing so with exactly one week to go before the polls is just outright dumb. I am sure there is pressure from the more smarter folks in the Uhuru crew to ask him to go. Either way he has already screwed himself. That is the problem with the politics of tantrums and entitlement. That is the world of bullies.

        Raila would have to make an unredeemable mistake at this stage to lose this election and I don’t see that happening. The tribal magicians and quack consultants will be put to shame this time and let’s hope they can go away.

        And even Mudavadi whom they wanted to lock up in Western for the entire duration of the campaign is not helping them. He keeps hitting Uhuruto with the ICC sledge hammer. I saw some fellow in Jukwaa asking Raila to go campaign in Nyanza and not Rift Valley. Some of our usual tribalists have invented a new myth that somehow Raila has problems in Nyanza and is avoiding the place. Rubbish. Raila has adopted the strategy of campaigning to be a Kenyan president and not a tribal king. It is working brilliantly for him. He is being welcomed everywhere in the country. Keep it that way, keep a positive message for the remaining one week and the rest will be history.

      • This is beyond funny.

        http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/Joining-hands-for-peace-/-/1631868/1703522/-/158gqes/-/index.html

        A religious guy brings the city to a near standstill with 7 presidential candidates in tow. No less. This is one week to the most important election in the history of the nation. The crowd is amazing. Look at the pictures. I mean, Kenyans really want peace. We can see that. May be we will get it this time. We will keep working for that.

        Back to the Peace Rally at Uhuru Park. Our so called leaders are saying they have forgiven each other. That is great, isn’t it? But we really don’t care. Reconciliation and forgiveness are bad words in Kenya. That is why we are in this mess.
        ,
        In an earlier version of the story I read about Dida, one of the presidential candidates, the one and only Dida, declare that “If you have grabbed land from somebody give it back and apologise as you repent”. That was his version of this repentathon. He is right.

        I may have issues with Dr. Owuor’s prophesies and religious career but his peace mission is very much welcomed. I want peace for my country. It is obvious from the crowd that Kenyans want Peace. They deserve it and they will get it. Why not?

        And now they say it was the biggest crowd ever at Uhuru Park. The nation is safe. It seems.

        Here we go.

        http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/Kenyans-pray-for-peaceful-elections–/-/1631868/1703536/-/12x51cbz/-/index.html

        If there is one thing we can all be sure about, it is that this crowd was multi-ethnic. That is good for our country.

      • adongo

        i guess all peace initiatives are great, but this is an example of confused objectives. in terms of substance, the 6 presidential candidates had only about 3 minutes each for their peace message.

        the interesting twist however, is the testimony of that pastor who talked about another atrocity other than the kiambaa fire which is not as prominent in the public domain. in fact i’ve not heard it mentioned anywhere in the ICC or KHRC or TJRC reports (… to insert time mark)

        i hope these guys achieved or did more than that 1 hour clip, but to be honest it was a little shallow.

        i would however like to find out from the TJRC report (long overdue) if such testimony was captured.

        on the plus side, the constant hating between the jubilee / CORD sides was basically destroyed with Raila stating that he already made peace with Ruto last year, and that he has no enmity with either Ruto or Uhuru. That optics has changed some dynamics on the ground

        the only cheap shot was from ruto and uhuru trying to edge in a line asking those present to vote for them. none of the other candidates did this

  5. Ipsos new opinion poll conducted 15th-19th February 2013 puts Jubilee ahead. I will await polls from Infortrak and Strategic Research to form a firm opinion.

    http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/Uhuru-Raila-locked-in-dead-heat-race–Poll/-/1631868/1701500/-/8okoqu/-/index.html

    I however find its strange that Synovate says that CORD enjoys only 1% popularity at the coast. See page 35. It could be a printing error but its strange that a firm claiming to be serious can present such a basic error.

    CORD is doing the right stuff for they are ahead in all regions but Rift Valley and Central.

    They must now go back and consolidate their gains in Eastern, NEP and Nyanza. An offensive has already been launched in Rift Valley but it wont be enough if more is not done.

    This is the only way round two will be avoided. And CORD must avoid the second round as much as possible

    • Funny that Ipsos has all of a sudden turned
      Kakamega,
      Bungoma,
      Kajiado,
      Samburu,
      Transnzoia,
      Nairobi and West Pokot all that are CORD strongholds into a battleground
      This is the reason we have always said that this pollster does not know what they are doing.

    • `
      The state must be thinking Kenyans are very gullible simpletons to be easily hoodwinked. Just when cornered with terrible acts of impropriety (eg Justice Mutunga’s incident) — they unleash a poll they hope to distract national attention from their dark and devious ways…It simply won’t happen.

      Pay attention to what Synovate pollsters are saying today: That Uhuru will lose terribly in a run-off: then wait to compare with the last poll they will release prior to that run-off. Expect another rabbit from the magician’s hat.

      The media manipulators are unveiling their classic playbook –yet again. After Kibaki trailed in all polls prior to election ’07, he was suddenly given a ‘boost’ in polls..to set stage for the tragic events of 2008. This is exactly what some predicted here…that sham polls will be unleashed from the magician’s hat at the eleventh hour…trying to con Kenyans that the ICC duo are ahead. It is what bold-faced fraud basically looks like. But this is just a window dressing…Uhuru’s friends at Consumer Insight will unleash yet another doctored ‘poll’ putting Uhuru ‘significantly’ ahead. What more is new?

      These numbers should be ignored with the full contempt they deserve. Infotrak and Strategic inc., will release their own numbers…then folks will start fighting over which polls to believe or not. From my own perspective, I’ve always maintained that Synovate (formerly Steadman) has never been an objective pollster, period! This is the group that dramatically cooked up figures for Kibaki at the eleventh hour of Dec 27th, 2007- that gave Kibaki the temerity to rob the election. They are at that exact script again.

      The silver lining is that events such as these, coupled with Justice Mutunga’s threatening; and Uhuru’s ducking from a national debate — should all energize Kenyans to go out to the polls and take their country back from these dark forces. Voters bent at wasting their votes to the likes of Musalia Mudavadi should do the right thing to end this thing in round 1 –decisively. There should not even be any need for a run-off.

      • Job,
        You are more than right about steadman.
        Steadman (Ipsos) has for the longest time shown poll numbers that are completely different from those of Infotrak and Strategic Research. I will rubbish the synovate results because going by the past record the most accurate of the pollsters has been

        (1) Strategic Research
        (2) Infortrak Harris
        (3) Synovate

        Sample this to see what I mean.
        http://www.nation.co.ke/Kenya-Referendum/Referendum-results-show-opinion-polling-has-come-of-age-/-/926046/973302/-/ktkyaaz/-/index.html
        Synovate was off the mark by more than 7% from the winning number.
        Both Infotrak Harris and Strategic were 1% off mark from the winning number.

        I have been told, reliably that Kibaki is seriously rooting for Uhuru and is doing everything to make him president. But Kenyans wont let it happen.

  6. ipsos synovate have released probably their last opinion polls ( i think opinion polls cannot be published after feb 25 not sure)

    this poll can be classified as the greatest con, and demonstrates a wise a political move but cleverly disguised with “numerical” data

    rather than antagonise the leading contenders, this last poll “coincidentally” (wink wink) has raila and uhuru tied at 44% each, and the other guys trailing at a distant below 10%

    unfortunately this poll proves what we’ve said all along that these pollsters are not serious or credible

    fortunately we can now wait in peace for the real deal on march 4

    have to give it to these guys for creativity.

    http://www.ipsos.co.ke/home/index.php/downloads

    • TNK,
      I think that they can release further polls till 48 hours to voting. Electoral Opinion Polls Bill, 2011 states that:-

      “7. (1) A person shall not publish the results of any electoral opinion poll during the period of forty eight hours immediately preceding the date of an election.”

      NOTE:- The date of polling was 13th – 15th February 2013. It therefore tallies with the same polls released by infotrak and Strategic Research done in the same period but released last week which pointed to more or less the same numbers. Synovate is just being mischievous by sitting on the poll numbers. By the way, I have least faith in Synovate and consumer insight. Both have shown loads of bias in the past.

      If the polls are to be believed then round two is certain. Perhaps thats the reason Jubilee has started negotiating with Mudavadi. It would however be the height of stupidity for Mudavadi to accept any working relationship with Uhuruto after the humiliation he suffered and given that CORD will sweep western province in the next round.

      The fact is that Jubilee has never gone past 45% in these polls whereas CORD has hovered close to 50% on many occasions, thats the trend to watch. With the CORD campaign in full gear expect a shift in polls carried out (not released) next week. I wont be surprised if they hit 50%.

  7. Cord enjoys support of youth: Poll

    Voters aged over 51 prefer Jubilee alliance presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta while Cord’s Raila Odinga is mainly supported by the youth, a latest opinion poll shows.

    The survey by Infotrak shows that Mr Odinga and his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka enjoy 58 per cent support of youth aged 18 to 20 compared to Mr Kenyatta and his running mate Mr William Ruto, who have a 32 per cent support from the same age group.

    A separate opinion poll by Strategic Research shows that Prof James ole Kiyiapi’s Restore and Build Kenya and Ms Martha Karua’s Narc-Kenya enjoy the biggest women support at 62 per cent and 60 per cent.

    Jubilee has 57.2 per cent from male voters, Cord 60.5 per cent, Amani 57.9 per cent and Eagle 61.4 per cent.

    Prof Kiyiapi enjoys greater support from women with 85.7 per cent against 14.3 per cent of men according to the poll.

    Amani coalition candidate Musalia Mudavadi’s greatest support of eight per cent comes from voters aged 31-35, according to Infotrak. Mr Peter Kenneth’s Eagle alliance’s greatest support, according to the poll, comes from the 18-24 age group at 25.7 per cent.

    http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/Cord-enjoys–support-of-youth–Poll/-/1631868/1699120/-/6lplh0z/-/index.html


  8. Opinion polls over the last six months have consistently showed that the presidential race in the first round will be between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and his deputy Uhuru Kenyatta.

    Mr Kenyatta, the presidential candidate of the Jubilee coalition, has been the biggest gainer in the polls over the six-month period.

    Predictions of a run-off, which would happen if none of the candidates failed to get 50 per cent plus one of the votes cast, were made as early as last year, when Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta were backed by 44 per cent of respondents.

    In October 2012, a poll by Ipsos Synovate indicated if the top two and Mr Odinga faced off in a run-off, Mr Kenyatta would get 50 per cent of the vote against Mr Odinga’s 42 per cent.

    That poll was about run-off scenarios, and it said Mr Odinga would similarly lose if it was between him and Amani Coalition candidate Musalia Mudavadi by 47 against 44 per cent.

    Later the same month, The Economist, a widely respected international weekly, published a poll by American firm Gallup indicating that Mr Odinga was ahead of the pack with 29 per cent of support against Mr Kenyatta’s 15 per cent and William Ruto’s 12 per cent.

    Launch campaigns

    All this was before the formation of the coalitions.

    After they went into alliances, Infotrak published a poll on January 11 indicating that Mr Odinga would win the election outright in the first round as he would garner 51 per cent of the vote.

    The Deputy Prime Minister and his Jubilee coalition were 12 percentage points behind, getting with 39 per cent of the votes.

    With 51 days to the election then, candidates were yet to launch their campaigns full scale and the pollsters indicated that the poll conducted between December 28 last year and January 2, did not capture the impact Mr Mudavadi joining the Amani Coalition.

    In polls after the presidential debate on February 11, Ispos Synovate reported that 40 per cent of those interviewed say they will vote for Mr Kenyatta if elections were held, Mr Odinga trailing him by seven percentage points.

    Mr Kenyatta gained most from the debate as his ratings increased from 37 to 40 per cent, while Mr Odinga was the biggest loser, going from 37 to 33 per cent.

    Researcher Tom Wolf, however, warned that the poll was not scientific as they had interviewed only those who watched the debate.

    http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/All-signs-are-race-will-end-in-a-run-off-/-/1631868/1699132/-/676al9/-/index.html

  9. The race is too tight to call according to the latest opinion polls (19-02-2013). Kenyans would have loved CORD to close this thing in round one but it might just go to round two which is Jubilees nightmare. Have a look

  10. A kenyan analyses the Ngunyis numbers
    ———————————————————–
    This poll and the others in the past few months are just
    confirming that Mutahi Ngunyis ‘Tyranny Of Numbers’ may be correct and that
    pollsters have been projecting the truth all along. Picture this;

    6.2 million is exactly 43% of the registered voters
    (GEMA+KALE), Ngunyi also includes in this figure 20% Kamba vote which for some
    reason he thinks might vote for Jubilee instead of CORD. Remember, this 6.2million
    was a global figure taken from all the eight provinces. From all pollsters
    (Infotrak, Synovate, Strategic Africa), Uhuru has been consistently polled in
    the range of 40%-43% just as calculated above.
    In fact, no pollster has polled Uhuru above 43%!

    He gives CORD 2.8m (Luo+ 80% Kamba) this is exactly 20% of
    registered voters, he then conveniently ignores other areas supporting CORD.

    Even if I were to give Mudavadi the entire Western Luhya
    vote of 1.4m which is 10% of the registered voters, we still have an
    unaccounted percentage of 27%.

    From this 27%, I give 5% or 715k to the other candidates
    combined such as Peter Kenneth, Martha Karua and other fringe ones, so we are
    left with around 22% of voters or 3.14million votes.

    From all polls we see that Raila consistently performs
    better than Uhuru in all provinces except Rift Valley (where he still manages
    at least 25%) and Central, plus excluding his (Railas) own strongholds we have
    already accounted for above. This as Mutahi Ngunyi correctly puts it is because
    of the tribe factor, other tribes will most likely not vote for another Kikuyu
    candidate after Kibaki. It therefore means bulk of this remaining 22% will vote
    for CORD.

    If we add this remaining 22% to Railas earlier figure of 20%
    we see he gets 42%.

    Now since we know that Western is actually almost evenly
    split between CORD and Amani with CORD enjoying greater popularity, Mudavadi
    cannot get the entire 10% I have given him. However, let me give it a 50-50 so
    it means Mudavadis 10% should actually be 5% and Railas number goes up by another
    5% or 700k votes from Western, again ALL pollsters have consistently rated
    Mudavadi at 5% just as I have shown here.

    Raila now has 47%
    (42+5) of the total vote. ALL pollsters have consistently rated him in the
    range of 45%-47%!

    So you can see from this analysis that Ngunyis figures are
    correct, only that he does not give Raila his true support figures. Also, the
    pollsters (3 in number – Infotrak, Synovate, and Strategic Africa) are very
    close to each other in their individual projections for all candidates and are
    very close to those calculated above. Given that the three pollsters have been
    independently carrying out their own polls, it would be foolish for anyone to suggest
    that all three pollsters are ‘cooking’ polls in favour of one candidate.

    NOTE:

    i.) I assume a very strong showing from the fringe
    candidates, getting almost 720k together, which is an unlikely scenario. Most
    these guys will get together is 450k, remainder may be equally divided amongst
    Uhuru and Raila.

    ii.) Ngunyi assumes 20% Kamba vote of 1million or 200k
    will go to Jubilee because of the Ngilu factor; however he should remember in
    2007 she only delivered a paltry 5% which was equivalent to 80,000 votes from
    the entire Eastern Province to ODMs Raila, the same will most likely be
    repeated this time. If Raila gets this 20% he will be hitting the 48% mark or thereabout.
    It also means Uhurus 43% will go down as this 200k is already in the 6.2
    million.

    iii.) I have also assumed Raila gets zero Kalenjin votes
    and zero from GEMA.

    iv.) In the second round which looks inevitable even
    from our calculations, there is no need asking where the Amani voters will be
    voting. Remember in second round it’s a simple majority and you are in State
    House

    http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-107780/raila-cord-enjoy-marginal-lead-state-house-race-infotrak

    • mzee,

      Now here are the polls as opposed to Mutahi Ngunyi’s tribal quackery which he uses to peddle his own tribalism.

      http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000077411&pageNo=1&story_title=Kenya-Opinion-poll-shows-Uhuru,-Raila-contest-will-be-too-close-to-call

      We will see the breakdown in the pdf.

      Raila Kalonzo ticket @ 45%
      Uhuru and Ruto @42%

      Those numbers are very close to what we will see on election day. It looks to me like the Raila Kalonzo ticket will get anywhere between 45% -49% while Uhuru and co will get anywhere between 40% and 45%. If you notice the undecided voters in this poll are all gone. Everybody is hitting their ceiling.

      This election is headed to round two without a doubt. As we all know Jubilee’s plan is either win in round one or go home. They cannot win in round one and neither can Cord. People complain that Mudavadi could be hurting Raila but Peter Kenneth is also hurting somebody, we don’t know who. Interesting. Now wait for the tribalist lunatics to start bashing Ambitho and infotrak. That is not going to help with the polls.

      After today’s court ruling as confused as it is Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto will be on the ballot on March 4, 2013. That is what everybody wanted. So let’s take this thing to the vote. Integrity manenos will go to the Supreme Court for the record but Uhuru and Ruto should be beat fair and square so they can go away quietly. It is coming.

      • Adongo,
        You could be right but I think that CORD can still hit the 50+1% mark if they put an extra gear. Have a look at their numbers in Eastern that stands at 43%. If they pushed this to 48-50% they would be home and dry in round one. And this is a possibility given that this is Wipers turf. They could also push for 5-10% more in RVP, WEP and Coast. This too would push them well past the 50% mark. I still believe that its doable. But lets wait and see.

        I wonder who will ever hire Mutahi Ngunyi again if his tribal numbers fail?

  11. Presidential debate poll rates Uhuru best

    Nairobi, Kenya: A new opinion poll declared Jubilee Alliance presidential candidate Uhuru Kenyatta as the biggest beneficiary of Monday historic presidential debate.

    According to Ipsos Synovate poll, Uhuru led in two key categories. The first being the score of how many Kenyans would, after the debate, vote for him if elections were held after the poll. On this front he scooped 40 per cent while Coalition for Reforms and Democracy candidate, Raila Odinga, came second with 33 per cent.

    On the second category, which is limited to performance on the televised debate, Uhuru also topped with 37 per cent.

    Majority of those polled told the pollster they were impressed with the Deputy Prime Minister’s proposals on security and responses on International Criminal Court trials against him and his running mate, William Ruto.

    Raila was also polled the best candidate in regard to his policies on political parties. Raila was second to Uhuru on overall performance on debate night with 23 per cent of those polled after the event broadcast live on television and radio stations as well as streamed in real-time by Online platforms.

    However, the pollster warned that the findings might not reflect the reality on the ground as those who are not fluent in English were excluded since the presidential debate was conducted in this language. Furthermore, the survey was only limited to those with access to TV and transistor radios and was only conducted among individuals whose phone contacts the pollster has in its database.

    “There is no basis to say that Uhuru Kenyatta is leading Raila based on this poll because it (the survey) was limited to those who had access to TV and radio,” said Ipsos Synovate’s Research analyst Tom Wolf.

    Using Computer Aided Telephonic Interviewing method to collect data, the survey placed — in terms of performance on stage — Eagle’s Peter Kenneth’s at 15 per cent, Narc-Kenya’s Martha Karua came fourth at 8 per cent, Mohamed Dida of Alliance for Real Change (ARK) and Amani’s Musalia Mudavadi posted 4 per cent each while Safina’s Paul Muite got 2 per cent. Restore and Build Kenya’s James Ole Kiyiapi scored one per cent.

    After the Monday’s debate, the pollster interviewed 1,074 respondents and found out that 7 per cent would vote for Kenneth, 4 per cent for Mudavadi while 2 per cent would vote for Karua. Seven per cent were undecided while six per cent refused to respond.

    The debate, however, would have little impact on changing the minds of voters with only 24 per cent of the respondents saying they are likely to change their mind based on the debate. But even then the sample was drawn from those who have good understanding of English and the findings may not be nationally representative.

    The study, which has a margin of error of +/-2.99 with a confidence level of 95 per cent, had the sample drawn from 43 of the 47 Counties. Isiolo, Marsabit, Tana River and Samburu were excluded from the survey. The poll was conducted on February 12, a day after the historic debate.

    The sample used in the survey was skewed towards Central, Nairobi and Rift Valley provinces and Ipsos Managing Director Maggie Ireri said this might be a pointer that the survey is not nationally representative. Wolf said the findings of the survey might not be nationally representative.

    “This is not a national poll because it is limited to those who watched or listened to the debate and those whose phone contacts are in our data base,” said Wolf.

    Rift valley had 24 per cent of the respondents, Central 17 and Nairobi 13. Central is perceived as Uhuru’s strong hold while Rift Valley is perceived as under the grip of his running mate.

    Raila’s Nyanza backyard had 14 per cent of the sample being interviewed same as Eastern, which is perceived to be partially under the control of his running mate, Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka.

    The survey had 51 per cent females and 49 per cent males and had majority between the ages of 25-29 being interviewed. They comprised 22 per cent of the respondents. Those aged between 18-24 comprised 19 per cent as well as those aged between 30 and 34. Respondents aged between 35-40 comprised 18 per cent while those over 45 years comprised 18 per cent of the respondents.

    The survey had those with secondary school education and above forming the biggest percentage of the respondents at 32 per cent. Of the respondents, 66 per cent watched the debate on TV while 34 per cent listened over radio and 97 per cent felt that the questions posed to the eight candidates were good enough.

    In terms of handling actual issues, 23 per cent felt that Kenneth handled the question on tribalism well followed by Raila and Uhuru at 22 per cent each, Karua had 12, Dida four, Mudavadi and Muite three each and Kiyiapi scored two per cent.

    Kiyiapi trounced them all on education issues scoring 18 per cent. He was a Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of Education before going into politics. Uhuru scored 16 per cent, Kenneth 14, Raila 13 and Karua 11. Dida scored seven per cent; Mudavadi four while Muite scored three per cent.

    Uhuru was viewed as the best performer in security and crime section, posting 22 per cent followed by Raila at 21 per cent and Kenneth at 14. Karua had 11, Muite nine, Mudavadi six and Dida and Kiyiapi three each.

    On health issues, Karua led the pack at 27 per cent followed by Uhuru at 17 and Raila at 15. Kenneth scored 13 per cent, Mudavadi five while Dida, Muite and Kiyiapi scored three each.

    Majority of the respondents, at 25 per cent, felt Uhuru tackled the ICC issue well, followed by Raila at 17, Muite at 14, Karua 13 and Kenneth had seven per cent. Dida scored four while Kiyiapi and Mudavadi had two each. Wolf attributed the high rating of Uhuru to the charges at The Hague-based court and he had an opportunity to argue his case.

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000077254&story_title=Kenya-Presidential-debate-poll-rates-Uhuru-best


  12. Latest opinion polls- CORD still leads JUBL

    I think that next poll will be very crucial because the land issue shall have been discussed properly. Its only now that the wanainchi are beginning to talk about the “forbidden” issue. Im loving it.

    Kibunja can go hang himself.

    See regional breakdown here.

  13. The Jubilee camp has gone wild following the revelation by this fake pollster that they are leading by 45% to CORDS 32%. Soon they will have CORD in 20s and then under 20%. Its amazing, have a look but don’t laugh. They are dead serious.
    ————————————-
    NAIROBI, Kenya, Jan 27 – An Opinion poll released by Smart Octopus on Sunday places Jubilee alliance leader Uhuru Kenyatta ahead of the pack with 45 per cent support, a sharp contrast of a similar poll released last week favouring CORD’s Raila Odinga.

    The Octopus poll showed that CORD’s Raila Odinga is second with 32 per cent, followed by Musalia Mudavadi’s Amani coalition which was placed third with 11 per cent while Peter Kenneth’s Eagle coalition enjoys 2 per cent support. Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua and James Ole Kiyiapi have 1 per cent each

    http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2013/01/new-poll-shows-jubilee-ahead-at-45pc/

  14. wow wow wow

    guys, ipsos synovate have just released polls for jan 17-20

    its unbelievable

    they tried every which way to twist and turn and cajole, and force feed, and manipulate and everything including throwing the kitchen sink.

    right from the first few pages you get the impression that they are trying very hard to influence the respondent into a certain direction. some of the questions and responses require divine intervention and interpretation

    somewhere to wards the end of the document raila is still leading at 46%, uhuru 40% mudavadi 5%

    Cord 43% Jubilee 40% Amani 4%

    the rest of the parties and candidates are dots on the page

    if there was outrage at the ambitho led polls, there will be much gnashing of teeth with this ireri led poll

    download the document called presidential alliances here

    http://www.ipsos.co.ke/home/index.php/downloads

    @mzee, @job
    our private projections match very closely when you apply an appropriate damping factor on page 33 to reflect the true reality on the ground

    of course people will want to bump central and rift valley to 99% jubilee and 99 for western’s amani

    i think after the nomination process angst cools down, and the final candidate lists, lets review and re-project lets see what we come up with on the private members page

    also read page 39 which is a clever way of saying “shucks – yes we carried this out, but we don’t believe the results either, Gasp! Gasp!”

    • tnk,
      I agree with you on all counts.
      Synovate is a big joke.
      We have always said so. The mzungu who runs the company should just retire because I don’t think that he knows what he is doing. Statistical projections are not his forte.

      In my opinion projections made before the nominations wont be very accurate.
      If there is anything to take home on this one its page 31 with provincial breakdowns.

      I will wait for INFOTRAK and Strategic Research. These two pollsters are the real deal.

      • mzee & tnk,

        While you may have a point and of course we know the dubious history of Synovate I think we should avoid the dismissive attitude we saw from the TNA congregation that emerged after the Infotrak polls where the fact that some names of Infotrak owners and pollsters started with O’s and A’s became the topic. Those are people who live in denial. Anything that contradicts their tribal projections is blasphemy. Tribalism is a religion to them and in their thinking Kenyans must vote according to tribe, period and Raila must only get Luo votes. They are going to need help after the elections but we can’t worry about them. Let them deal with their problem.

        What both polls tell us in no uncertain terms is that this election is CORD’s to lose and they are not going to lose it if they work hard and all indications are they are working their tails off to get this thing done. There are people who were expecting these polls to start with Jubilee at 60% and CORD at 35%. That is where there tribal math is at and Synovate is their favourite pollsters. Well their baby is telling them there is no food in the belly. Baby is crying and there is no food in the house either. That is a nightmare isn’t it?

        To me at this stage this polls are realistic. Nobody is winning this thing in the first round as things stand now and CORD should be very happy with that projection.

        Secondly in my opinion, Jubilee has more or less peaked after three years of “prayers”, tribal hate mongering about Raila and Obama taking Uhuru and Ruto to The Hague, a war against Raila in Rift Valley and a total onslaught against ODM and tricking the likes of Mudavadi etc. If you look at it there is no more damage Uhuruto can try to do to Raila that they have not done already. They have put the kitchen sink in there already and Raila and the new CORD group are still standing tall and ahead in all polls.

        Third Kenyans are only beginning to finally have a sensible discussion about The Hague dilemma for Uhuruto. Before the issue was the selling card for the duo and they wore it as a badge of honour and the only thing that qualifies them to lead our country. Today they are terrified of any discussion about the fact that both the presidial candidate and his deputy have been indicted for crimes against humanity and will be at The Hague on April 10, 2013 or else. Uhuru and Ruto have collected all the political gifts they could from the ICC nightmare and now they are facing the other side of the balance sheet where Kenyans are asking questions. They are asking how a president can govern from the Hague. Oh mara they will use ICT and twitter, oh mara Ruto will govern when Uhuru is there and vice versa, oh mara ICC will accommodate their needs. They really don’t know how to deal with that question and it is bothering Kenyans.

        On the same ICC note the issue of possible sanctions and its impact on Kenyans is now being discussed and you can feel the nervousness on Uhuru and his allies. They are all over the map. Oh there will be no sanctions. Oh Kenya can finance 95% of its budget. Oh we will just trade with China and Somalia. And so on and so forth. The verdict is the nation is mortified about these things.

        In a nutshell there is no more Uhuru and Ruto can milk from the ICC issue and a lot they are going to lose politically from the same. That is just a stubborn fact they have to face and it has nothing to do with so and so using the ICC issue to burry them. Remember their big selling point for years was that so and so was using the ICC to remove them from the race so they can win easily. That is no longer relevant. They are in the race.

        All said and done Jubilee has nowhere else to go but down while CORD has all the chances to move up. That is my verdict and I am standing by it. hehehe. It is ON.

      • Adongo,
        Obviously we will not completely diss the polls. We are only saying Ipsos is not the most accurate pollster. Read here please:-
        http://www.nation.co.ke/Kenya-Referendum/Referendum-results-show-opinion-polling-has-come-of-age-/-/926046/973302/-/ktkyaaz/-/index.html

        Having said that, all indications are that CORD may just hit the 50% mark in the next polls. They only need to do some adjustments, some which we have already suggested here and there. Then they will be home and dry. If this happens people will get fits and stomachs upset. But who cares.

        What I promise you is that if CORD hits the 50% mark all hell will break loose in Jubilee camp for they won’t know here to turn. Remember that they have been campaigning for a whole three years which is a record in Kenya. Still they are going nowhere. If Kenyans were listening to the mobsters, the whole country would be singing the Jubilee language. Or if they were doing tribal math then it would be something like this; Uhuru´s votes = 5M, Rutos votes = 2.6M, Total = 7.6M of 10M votes cast. And we are talking only Central and Rift Valley. These are the so called NUMBERS they have been talking about. Yaani its fuzzy math.

        As for The Hague 99 years has reached faster than we all thought it would and the movie at The Hague has become a reality. I will predict here today that this is perhaps the last political campaign the Hague duo is carrying out. They will be tied down for five years fighting for dear lives at the ICC, then go to jail for at least 20 years each. I don’t think that anyone will remember then upon coming release.

        It’s a pitiful ending of digital political lives. But again, I did not tell them to deport, rape, maim and murder people. They will get what they deserve.

      • Folks,

        There’s something Adongo is saying that needs amplification. The polls are disappointing to the Jubilee impresarios because their tribal arithmetic is not adding up. Their strategy is based on tribal numbers. To spice it – they are spreading the propaganda of invincibility of Kikuyu and Kalenjin numbers…hoping to inadvertently attract those who fall for their ploy. IEBC Registered Voter Data shows those numbers are NOT ENOUGH to WIN, PERIOD!

        In their hope of hopes, Jubilee expected all Kikuyus, all Kalenjins, and all members of certain tribes, to start a wave that would yield national enmasse flow into their alliance and BINGO! They projected close to 60% round 1 victory.


        However, ALL the polls are all showing them not only below 50%, but LOSING to CORD. That is their shocker right there! Reality on the ground is revealing otherwise. They are now blaming polls and pollsters. First they started with mudslinging Infotrak – tracking its owner’s ethnicity and blaming it for their dwindling numbers. Well, now Ipsos-Synovate of wakina Ireri and the American have unleashed the same narrative –affirming Jubilee’s impending loss…and Jubilee apologists are either mumbling incoherent mumbo-jumbos, some are dumbfounded, others tongue-tied, others have gone mteja.

        Here is the news….not all Merus, all Kisiis, all Embus, all Miji Kenda, all Taita, all WaSwahili…will blindly troop into Jubilee…ati because of Mbiuki, Ongeri, Nyaga, Shaban, Mwakwere, and Balala.

        Not all Kenyans are gullible to buy the lie that ICC suspects are so popular. Not all Kenyans will believe the bold-faced lie that economic sanctions can’t harm them. Not all Kenyans buy the myth that land oligarchs can preside land reforms. Not many Kenyans believe Uhuru and Ruto will safeguard the Constitution they opposed – including aspects such as taxing idle land…which will free access to land for the masses.

        Not all Kenyan communities are enthusiastic supporting a dominating ping-pong monopoly of the presidency between only two communities – the Kikuyu and Kalenjin. Hello! These are the things driving the polls. Let them chew this reality first.

        Let them stop underestimating the intelligence of Miji Kendas and Taitas, and Kisiis who have huge land issues attributable to the Jubilee principals. Ruto could not even be allowed to address small market rallies in Kisii. He is being held responsible for a lot of misery by Kisiis in Rift Valley. This cannot be swept under the carpet.

        Uhuru Kenyatta and Esther Murugi have not compensated or resettled even a single Abagusii victim evicted from RV..or those whose entire buildings were gutted by PEV infernos in Kericho, Uasin Gishu, Eldoret, etc…These people have paid a heavy price because of cheap boardroom politics. They want none of it anymore…they don’t even share a border with Uhuru Kenyatta. Omingo Magara heard it straight from Nyamira victims of PEV who want nothing to do with Ruto or Kenyatta. They are waiting for justice – keenly watching ICC’s restitution process while holding their breath as Ruto buys new campaign choppers.

        CORD has virtually swept Taita-Taveta county and most of the Miji Kenda inhabited counties as we speak. It is because these people have brains and know the land grabbers and masterminds of perennial PEV evictions.

        The polls are the best evidence of this intelligence and awareness..the people are following their conscience, not Tumbo-yangu politicians like Shaban, Mwakwere, and Ongeri. Jubilee’s arithmetic is not cutting.

        What Adongo keeps saying about 55-60% Jubilee projections for round 1 are being peddled not just by their propagandist internal pollsters and cyber-warriors, but also percolating into the grassroots and elite anecdotes. Did I not hear this myself, from a grown, intelligent IMF consultant, who supports Uhuru Kenyatta? It is a delusional trip to nowhere.

        The man even had the temerity to allocate Jubilee half the Kamba vote…ati because of Ngilu’s ‘great work’ with water supply in Ukambani…the same man who months ago listed to me Ngilu among the “lazy and corrupt Raila followers”. I asked him based on his own tribal-based voting patterns, if Kambas would ignore voting for a Kamba Vice President while instead voting for 2 ICC suspects who used and dumped Kalonzo after the shuttle diplomacy. I bombarded him with facts he couldn’t answer…and after this poll, he has in fact gone mteja. He is another 60% round 1 dreamer who until recently bothered me obsessively with daytime calls on Kenyan politics. I know he is going to read this ( he’s a Deep Cogitation lurker) right from his Bretton Woods office. Pick up ur godarn phone and call me back fella! The chicken (polls) are coming home to roost.

  15. I saw kabando wa kabando arguing about the poll results and as one who knows one or the other thing about statistics of probabilities he really made me laugh. His arguments were rather pedestrian. Have a look

  16. I think that this has been a very good week for CORD. They must sustain the current tempo of campaign. I hope that they will conduct a free and fair election devoid of any acrimony. After that they should be on their way to state house.

    I can see that the Muthamaki is once again seething with his usual anger. He has once again resorted to name calling. I find it funny that a man who has stolen land the size of Nyanza province can speak about theft of anything. A man who wanted to cheat Kenya of billions via computer errors while at the treasury has no right whatsoever to tell Kenyans what is wrong and right.

    Indeed one who has maimed, raped, murdered and deported Kenyans, mainly Kalenjins should not be allowed to preach moral rights in our country. But here we are being “entertained” by a man accused of the most heinous crimes in the world.

    The good thing is that Kenyans are just too clever to be hoodwinked by this thug. The opinion polls show this very clearly. As time goes by and the CORD alliance touches the right buttons and tell the truth as is, we will see the landscape changing more than it has already done. I like what I’m hearing from people the alliance but they have to make it its pet subject.

    • mzee,

      I saw some strange and bizzare advise to Mudavadi where the usual Uhuru mob are telling Mudavadi to spend his entire campaign in Western and never venture outside in Rift Valley etc where he actually could attract some votes. But the same people who have been lying to him all the time with the kut kut plan to trap chicken for lunch are busy lying to him again. Just conquer Western they yell at him and you will be fine. They must really take Mudavadi for a super fool.

      Mudavadi is not running for any position in Western. He is not running to be governor, he is not running to be a senator, he is not running to be an M.P. He is not running to be mayor of Kakamega for god’s sakes. Why on earth should he spend his entire campaign in Kakamega and the environs. He was in Bungoma, then went to Kakamega and off to Kitale and then back to Bungoma. Today he is in Vihiga. Then where does he go next? Back to Bungoma? Please even if you want to fool the man give him a little respect. Don’t treat him like a village chief.

      They tell him if he wins some seats in Western he can use that to bargain. What exactly will he be bargaining for and in what capacity will he conduct such bargains? You lose the presidency as Mudavadi is doomed to do you go home. You are a non-entity politically. Eti he will bargain for his people. Which people? Are they not Kenyans? Why do they need somebody to bargain for them. Then they want Mudavadi to build his career by uniting “Luhyas” so that he can contest for the presidency in future. This pata potea politics is just nonsense. Mudavadi is heading to political oblivion right after he loses the presidency. That will be his reward from the “dark forces”.

      The real deal is that Mudavadi’s main job now is to help take away votes from CORD in Western. Hiyo tu. Then go home to sleep. Mudavadi may be their fool to throw around like a pinata but the people they are trying to fool have seen the trap and they are not buying it. Now wait for the court ruling which will tell Uhuru he can go ahead and run but he better not win. That is when the pissing in the wind is going to go beserk. The mad boys will go on with their race but they are going to lose it. They have miscalculated in too many fronts. Shauri zao.

    • Folks,

      In the KTN news I saw a a report on a new opinion poll by the beloved IPSO synovate for the Uhuruto mob and it puts CORD (With Raila and Kalonzo) at 47% and Uhuruto’s Jubilee at 41% with Midavadi’s Amani at 5%. The same poll shows that if Uhuru resigned for Mudavadi then CORD wins 48% to 38%.(Poll Jan 17-20)

      Two things:

      1. I can’t find any report of this poll in the newspapers.
      2. Now that their beloved pollster not named Ambitho has pretty much the same numbers under which tree do the Uhuruto go to shed a few tears? Certainly not under the tree of tribalism. I mean those IPSO folks do not have names staring with Os and As or do they?

      Anyways can someone pull out the whole thing.

      • Adongo,

        Don’t worry. If that report is surely out there, we shall surely get it and post it right here on DC for ALL to see.

      • Adongo, Einstein et al.,

        Ipsos-Synovate (not a very credible pollster in my books) may soon find out they can’t massage their numbers without totally losing any relevance in polling. Gallup poll tried selling fake polls in the last US election and immediately lost value (stocks, ratings,) and even revenue. No one believes them anymore…no one is interested in hiring them after that credibility dent.

        Ipsos/Synovate had CORD and Jubilee at 47% and 41% respectively last month…with 12% UNDECIDED. If what you state is right, it means the polls remain the same…47% and 41%…pretty close to what Infotrak reported.

        Looking at the trends for Raila vs. Uhuru –individual choice –rather than the coalition ticket– Ipsos trend shows between Nov ’12 Raila v Uhuru 33% v 26% and Dec ’12 Raila v Uhuru 34% v 27%.

        Purportedly Citizen TV reports that Ipsos now has Jan ’13 Raila v Uhuru 40% v 36% (individual level) while coalition tickets 47% v. 41%. The report alludes to Ipsos’s sampling methodology – that they polled only registered voters based on a random multi-stage stratified sampling which mirrors IEBC’s registered voter population. If that’s the case, then we need to look at how many undecided voters they recorded…(I’ll come back to this later).

        Since their last poll, the most significant occurrence has been Ruto’s shift from candidate into (confirmed) running-mate of Uhuru. This has had direct implications in the former in RVP – where many voters now see a chance for one of their own to be Deputy President. Predictably, Uhuru harvests Ruto’s 9% (per Dec ’12) and roughly ends up with 27% + 9% = 36%.

        This is what some probability and statistic majors call – predicted maximum or estimated saturation point from base. Anyone paying meticulous attention to the IEBC figures sees very close parallels with these pollsters current saturation point.

        The only things I will still be searching from these polls (esp. the more credible ones) are: (a) % of UNDECIDED voters (b) trends in Musalia’s % and (c) provincial breakdown of UNDECIDED voters.

        Pay particular attention to the last part (c) because I think it is the remaining WILD CARD in this election.

        Ipsos reported in the last two successive polls that Coast and Western led in the number of undecided voters…specifically 33% and 32% respectively. This means that just weeks ago, one-third (1/3) of the entire Western electorate was still undecided whom they’ll vote for. The same applies to Coast. Your guess is as good as mine which coalition is more likely to harvest such undecideds.

        Is anyone shocked with that significant detail? The obvious inference is that of the two coalitions, whoever gets this pool of undecided voters– concentrated in Western and Coast –will receive a significant boost. With the CORD ticket lingering just under 50% according to Ipsos & other pollsters, your guess is as good as mine.

        With a significant % of RV voters having migrated into Uhuru’s corner to get the coalition up to 41%, CORD is lingering at 47% with many Western and Coast voters still undecided, while some lining behind Musalia. CORD must look at getting these votes to close this thing decisively. I’m sure what will surprise many is the significant input of the Kamba vote in CORD. It will provide a crucial vote that many have previously under-estimated…so long as Kibaki’s County Governors and provincial administration don’t keep them away from the ballot.

        Does anyone start seeing the fallacy in Jubilee’s myth about ‘numbers’….

        FACT: The superb registration of Central voters IS DEFINITELY NOT enough to lift the ICC accused duo into State House. Bookmark this!

        unedited

      • adongo

        its not a new survey, its the same December poll that Job mentions. from twitter buzz, there are some new polls due later in the month, but i don’t think these will count since the real polls after this nomination fiasco will be more revealing as truth bites home for those who will miss out and force realignments as the fall outs crystallize

      • synovate have released the January 2013 polls

        raila 43% , Uhuru 34%, Peter Kenneth 7%, Musalia 2% (gasp gasp) Martha Karua 1%, Undecided 9%,

        CORD 41%, Jubilee 40%, Amani 5%, Eagle 3% Narc-K 1%

        http://www.ipsos.co.ke/home/index.php/downloads

        btw folks english and swahili mix can be confusing – “running mate” means deputy but if one of the words is swahili what does it mean 😀 wapi titchaz? and am thinking amani running mate

      • Adongo and others,
        I think that polls conducted after the nominations will give us a preview of what is to come. I guess that it will put CORD just over the 50% mark. The ground has shifted immensely in favor of the coalition.

      • tnk,

        Thanks for the IPSO poll numbers. I was looking for them. Incidentally Infotrak is supposed to have done another poll at the same time.

        I think there is no need wasting time fighting pollsters as to who works for who.

        The key here is that Uhuru’s beloved Synovate puts CORD @ 41% and Jubilee @ 40%.

        Assuming those polls are accurate it confirms what some of us have been saying here all along, namely that there will be no TKO winner in round one even though CORD will most likely lead in that poll. I had the same argument when they released the Infotrak polls which sent some people into knots about the names of who owns Infotrak.

        My guess work is that barring any major upheavals in the political landscape CORD will get something between 45 – 48% of the vote. Jubilee will get something between 39 – 45%. The 60% win for Jubilee based on tribal quack masters is not going to happen. Jubilee is essentially a 40% student if you will.

        The presidential election therefore will go to a run off and that is where a major diasaster awaits Jubilee. They will lose that miserably. Jubilee is built on a plan to win in round one or lose everything. Obviously they cannot win in round one. That should be fairly obvious by now.

        So whichever way you look at this thing based on polls and what we see on the ground, CORD will indeed win the presidential election in 2013. As to the National Assembly and Senate, it is going to be a mixed team in both houses and they will work with the CORD team at State House with no problems. Once the shetanis are out of the way and the ICC boys are safely settled at The Hague there is going to be no problems bringing order into the business of governing the country.

      • adongo

        i agree with your observation, but i also add that the polls were conducted before the nominations fiasco

        people are not fools and therefore can see through the real logisitic issues experienced versus forcing certain outcomes. by this i mean that TNA supporters have become aware of behind the scenes boardroom deals and there is going to be a significant drop in support. look at the video clips on how they’ve duped mary wambui. look at the reaction to mbaru’s loss to waititu.

        http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000075606&pageNo=1&story_title=Kenya-TNA-losers-divide-Uhuru-Central-support-base

        basically as Job puts it, TNA is an outfit that is putting thugs in charge of affairs. central province rejected mungiki. once they come to their senses, they will reject a govt run by thugs. the writing is getting up on the wall soon

        in my view, that 41/40 is going to change to 41/34 pretty soon.

  17. adongo23456 said 2013/01/12 at 9:52 pm

    It is important for CORD to expose the endless Ruto lies about the new constitution. Remember Rutos claims that under the new constitution abortions would be happening around the clock in street corners and kiosks. Well it is not happening. How about the land grabs by the state that were going to happen after the new constitution is passed. Not happening is a very hard working politician and we need to acknowledge that but he is also a serial liar. It is time to give his lies back to him

    adongo you are right, i found an excellent summary on the msemakweli blog posted in aug of 2010 – here it is paraphrased

    (the following text is excerpted from and paraphrased from Joe Kadhi’s Msemakweli blog . follow the link for the complete article.

    ===

    when ruto went around the country telling lies about the new constitution he rallied around four main untruths

    1. the Proposed Constitution will allow homosexuals to marry partners of the same sex. Yet the Proposed Constitution says in Article 45(2) that every person has the right to marry a person of the opposite sex based on the free consent of the parties

    2. He publicly told his tribesmen and women that all the land they own would be confiscated by the Government if they accepted the Proposed Constitution.

    Many Kalenjins voted “NO” believing the New Constitution would not respect the private land they individually own. Yet the New Constitution clearly describes private land in Article 64 (a) which say private land consist of registered land held by any person under any free hold tenure or land held by any person under leasehold tenure or any other land declared private land under and Act of Parliament.

    3. Ruto went round the country telling everyone to reject the Proposed Constitution because it would facilitate abortion on demand for pregnant mothers yet Article 26 (4) of the New Constitution also very clearly says abortion is not permitted unless, in the opinion of a trained health professional, there is need for emergency treatment, or the life or health of the mother is in danger, or if permitted by any other written law.

    4. William Ruto went to the Coast and up at North Eastern Province where there are a lot of Muslims and told them if they backed the Proposed Constitution there would be serious confrontation between Muslims and Christians. Millions of Christians ignored William Ruto when he told them to reject the Proposed Constitution because of the inclusion of the Kadhi courts in it. His argument was that the Kadhi courts in the Constitution would make Islam superior to Christianity and would lead to the spread of Islam and Muslim fundamentalism throughout the country.

    William Ruto deliberately misled the people of Kenya and managed to get well over two million people on his side. That was a very serious damage he made to the efforts of getting this nation a new constitution. Should he be rewarded for his efforts by getting elected to be a deputy president?

    Can a person who publicly lied against the new Constitution to suit his own personal gains be trusted to work as a key implementer of a document that he so vehemently opposed using nothing but packed lies?

    ==

    Job said 2013/01/11 at 11:54 pm

    Jubilee is essentially Central Kenya’s old-and-new-money-mafia outfit, with sentimental inclusion of a trouble-ridden demagogue called Ruto…who has little clue of awaiting plans to discard him like used tissue.

    it is very sad and unfortunate for ruto and his supporters to be so shortsighted and naive not to see the bigger picture

    well for any of them who are willing to listen to reason

    this is not the story of cinderella where the prince marries the ….er well.. raggedy girl and they live happily ever after in the kingdom. this is the stuff from those political intrigues, terrible mix from varying cunning manipulation like JR Ewing in Dallas, etc.

    here are the facts

    – the political marriage of uhuru and ruto is one of convenience – i.e to rally two supposedly largest tribal bases to vote in one basket no questions asked.
    – this marriage is currently being peddled/sold as one that guarantees peace for the two warring communities (they have both said this a million times). what they will not say is what the two warring communities have been (or still) fighting about, and how they have or will ever resolve the fundamental reasons for the feud.
    – this perception is further reinforced when their supporters gleefully point at the IEBC registration tallies i.e the supporters are unable to articulate any other factor except the supposed large registration numbers as being the ultimate proof they will win the election. put simply, the two have managed to assemble a large number of people to do their biding and like i said no questions asked. for now they are rallying around the two ostensibly to protect them from the ICC and prove a point to the ICC. hehehehe oh boy!

    well at this point its clear that even though they say they are about issues, clearly they are only interested in ethnic voting basket patterns

    back to the facts and here are some warning bells/cautions to ruto and his support base
    – for ruto (and by extension his basketfull of voters that he carries around with him to the jubilee coalition), his usefulness to jubilee coalition has a shelf life and it expires on march 4 2013 when voting ends. he can delusion himself with 5 year development plans, 50/50 power sharing etc. but that is fact. his only hope for an extension, is if there is a run-off. if there is no run-off, whether jubilee wins or loses, his shelf life is over. the reason is obvious, just like kibaki, uhuru does not need ruto to run the country once elected. just like wiht mudavadi, the forces around uhuru will begin the “disengagement charade”. their objective of their man in statehouse will have been achieved.

    any MOU signed, just like with Uhuru/mudavadi and kibaki with Raila, the forces around uhuru will begin planning their disengagement, andd whether its immediate or gradual is irrelevant, it will happen

    can ruto make life difficult for a president uhuru? of course, but with the new constitution, impeachment is near impossible especially considering that ruto is already on the opposite side with CORD. therefore getting support from Senate and county assemblies is an uphill task, and also worthless and yet expensive. paralysing government is detrimental to everyone.

    ruto at this point will rely solely on whether a president uhuru is magnanimous or not. period. nothing else will help him, not his RV fan base, and not his MOU or what not.

    this is not fact but speculative shelf life and end or disengagement process
    – it is ironically the bond or bonds that tie them together. (a) the PEV and ICC, and (b) their strong personalities. starting with their personalities. they are both head strong. you cannot have two headstrong individuals running a show. we saw it with kenyatta and jaramogi, we’ve seen it elsewhere, two power centers will not work, they will undermine each other and finally fall out once the other factors binding them lose purpose (remember jubilee only needs ruto/RV until March 4 2013). Also uhuru can just as easily appoint any other RV politician (one less abrasive) to replace ruto
    on the issue of (a) PEV and ICC
    this is the ideal ticket to disengage ruto
    there is still a large number of former central that have it etched in their minds and hearts that ruto is the root cause of their PEV suffering some dating back to 1992. this is a yet unpaid debt. a president uhuru will be in an excellent position to execute payback
    the ICC am sure can be accomodating if a president uhuru makes certain commitments via AG githu.
    for instance availing those Provincial Admin/security statements, Gichangi’s NSIS profile on ruto’s involvement etc. these can be traded and a more favorable outcome for a cooperating president.
    so it is possible to detain ruto at the ICC for lets say 6 months, requiring that a new deputy president be appointed. will not go into more detail, but provide you with food for thought.

    yes people, go in this thing with blind faith and hope, and you get exactly whats coming at you. ask the wazees they will read the situation with more clarity

    anyway, i’ve said my piece

  18. An opinion poll carried out by Infotrak has placed

    Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) as the most popular coalition at 49%.
    Jubilee alliance is second in popularity with 40%.
    United Democratic Front comes a distance third with 3%.

    The most popular presidential candidate and running mate are:
    Raila-Kalonzo at 51%
    Uhuru-Ruto at 39%,
    Mudavadi 3%
    Kenneth-Tuju 3%
    Karua 0.3%
    Kiyiapi 0.1%

    What the poll further shows is that incase of a runoff then COTA aka JUBILEE will be beaten very badly.

    But the more interesting results are from RVP where CORD is just behind Jubilee. And whats that thing in Kiambu county?

    OBS!! Extremely close to DC internal polls

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/-/1064/1663182/-/aifr8g/-/index.html

    • These polls are going to kill some people especially the tribal head counters whose only understanding of Kenyan politics is tribal math. They have already counted Kikuyu and Kalenjin registered voters and have been celebrating the Uhuruto victory for over a month now. This will kill them.

      Unless Uhuru and Ruto quit and bring back Mudavadi, they are going to lose to CORD. Even a late reversal to the Mudavadi option may not work given the dynamics in play. Kenyans are not going to destroy their country to save Uhuru and Ruto. Of that I am sure.

      • adongo

        they are currently wailing and flogging themselves in cyberspace.

        interestingly these numbers are closer to our projected outcomes as mzee indicates above, we are however using a different methodology and i think we are a little more accurate than these numbers.

        but the real race is yet to begin, a clearer picture will emerge after the party primaries/nominations, the resultant fall outs and last minute defections and plan B’s. at that point we can make a near accurate projection.

    • I crunched the IEBC numbers through compartmentalization and long realized that CORD will win this thing without doubt. I specifically broke down the mythical ‘humongous’ Rift Valley vote and distributed it according to current affiliations. The outcome mirrors the Infotrak model within the 5% range. Jubilee is essentially Central Kenya’s old-and-new-money-mafia outfit, with sentimental inclusion of a trouble-ridden demagogue called Ruto…who has little clue of awaiting plans to discard him like used tissue. Luckily, those fantastic imaginations won’t happen.

      For the umpteenth time, the false myth that Jubilee has ‘numbers’ is only effective to gullible simpletons. Central Kenya registered eye-popping numbers which amount to nothing but 39% of the total vote when combined with the Rift Vote (URP & TNA) and the entire Meru, Embu, Mbeere, Tharaka vote. Nairobi is excluded precisely because it is a battleground in which CORD will win fair and square.

      Jubilee need miraculous help from Coast, NEP, Nyanza, Ukambani, and Western which won’t happen. Coast, NEP and Nyanza are virtually CORD country. The undiluted opinion of Gusii was eloquently stated last weekend—they’re CORDED like the rest. They have nothing to do with supporting PEV masterminds who IDPed them (Ruto)…then refused to resettle and compensate them (Kenyatta the boss of computer errors). Does anyone seriously think Ngilu will convince any Kamba to vote against a ticket that has its own as VP while giving it to two mass murderers? After Uhuru Kenyatta’s mistreatment of Mudavadi, does he still think he’ll con some votes from Western? Let these Jubilee dreamers keep wishing.

      Breaking the 45% ceiling with; the ICC baggage, Ruto’s fantastic criminal-and-court record (mainly over land grabs), dim prospects of biting economic sanctions, the well known intentions of the duo to claw back Katiba gains (esp. on taxing idle land, probing land grabs, and funding devolution units), the Kenyatta family’s hold on 500,000 acres of prime grabbed land, and a historic streak of Kikuyu-Kalenjin ping-pong dominance over the Presidency for the last 50 years — is only a figment of imagination in the minds of converted cheerleaders.

      The coalition of suspects themselves know it…and are desperately trying to peddle the myth of invincibility of numbers. Wapi? Where is Jubilee’s arithmetic? It’s no wonder they can’t comprehend poll after poll. In fact they wanted to ban opinion polling to keep people completely in the dark. Well, didn’t happen!

      Their last desperate attempt to inflate TNA and URP numbers have been busted with embarrassing consequences. It doesn’t hold water. Just like Mitt Romney convinced his followers he would win in a landslide, these snake oil salesmen of Jubilee (aka criminal warlords or ICC accused) will be grossly rejected the moment actual campaigns gain the entire country’s attention. Watch this space!!!! It is coming spectacularly…then we move into the EDV, OTP, business at the Hague…where Kenyatta’s financial empire may end up in ICC’s Victims Trust Fund for yet another spectacular distribution to VICTIMS of PEV. This prospective and populist robin-hood drama is a soap opera that voters who wish to witness with their own eyes must invest their vote towards. Voting to see Uhuru Kenyatta compensating poor masses. Yes it can! The International Community doesn’t give a hoot who Uhuru Kenyatta is!!! Justice is on the way!

      .

      • tnk & others

        Here is Uhuru complaining about the latest polls:

        http://elections.nation.co.ke/news/-/1631868/1663948/-/p9h97mz/-/index.html

        This is just plain stupid. A presidential candidate should be above such silliness. I wouldn’t be surprised if these losers start complaining that infotrak only polled Luos. It is not the names of the pollsters that matter. It is who they poll and how they do it. Obviously those who have invested on tribal math and nothing else to take them to State House are beginning to have nightmares. They haven’t seen nothing yet. It is coming.

        The other thing that struck as very odd is the Uhuru park rally itself. I watched it live on KTN. My son laughed his head off when he saw Uhuru and his wazees jumping to hip hop rap tunes as they walked to centre stage. I know Kenyan politicians call themselves youth when they are 50 years old but some things just don’t work.

        I told my son if he wants to make good money very quickly to start a dance school for Kenyan politicians and by March this year we can relocate to the Bahamas permanently. He is working on it. Kenyan politicians love to dance as much as they love money but they are pretty awful at it. Me and my son we want to be rich by teaching politicians some dance moves. I CAN’T WAIT.

        Back to the rallies. The Uhuru Park rally was hyped as the mother of all rallies for the Hague boys. I was expecting the crowd to spill over to the streets and take over the city. Instead it was a subdued and relatively small rally for Uhuru park. Where are the people? Are folks getting scared of the Hague boys and the implications of suspected mass murderers being at State House.

        I saw the Karbanet rally and was taken aback by the small crowd. Then they went to Kericho and while it was a lot better there still the bombshell homecoming wasn’t there. Something is not adding up. The tribal math magicians need to go back to the drawing board.

        And by the way at Uhuru Park the Hague boys asked their supporters not to be intimidated by the ICC. It was the same topic in Karbanet and Kericho. Bad idea. This is a taboo topic for them and the more they talk about it the more they scare their own supporters. I know Ruto wants to run the country with the help of ICT right from The Hague but that is not something you want to be talking about in rallies. But I guess since Bensouda is loudly busy over there at The Hague and the Kenyan media is all over the story the chaps have no option but to dwell on that topic to their peril of course.

        My sense is that this thing will go to the second round where CORD will soundly and roundly beat The Hague chaps then Uhuru and Ruto can peacefully go there to defend themselves and Kenyans can get on with the business of building their own lives and their country. It is about time. It is coming big time.

      • job,

        One more thing. The coalition of the accused have one new slogan. It is called we are all reformers. The say the constitution can implement itself. Rubbish. I think this is one area CORD should explore and I will be talking to the fellas I know in there.

        There are a couple of areas CORD can campaign on.

        1. Up to now implementing the new constitution passed in August 2010 has been a nightmare. It has been war at every step and the enemies of the new constitution has done everything to sabotage it. This is not hearsay. It is a fact.

        Start with the judiciary where Kibaki with the help of the Hague boys tried to impose their own boys and girls in the Supreme Court and picked Visram as the Chief Justice.

        If they had succeeded the reforms in the judiciary that Kenyans love across the board would have been dead. But the PM stood firm and rejected Kibakis illegal nominations. Kenyans went to war and we ended up with Dr. Mutunga and a very promising Supreme Court. It did not come without a fight.

        In fact when Kibaki gave in to the pressures he was at State House addressing a press conference with Ruto and Uhuru in attendance. It was a huge defeat for them. How on earth would Kenyans trust the same Uhuru and Ruto to implement the constitution they have tried so hard to defeat.

        2. It is important for CORD to expose the endless Ruto lies about the new constitution. Remember Rutos claims that under the new constitution abortions would be happening around the clock in street corners and kiosks. Well it is not happening. How about the land grabs by the state that were going to happen after the new constitution is passed. Not happening is a very hard working politician and we need to acknowledge that but he is also a serial liar. It is time to give his lies back to him.

        3. The Hague boys supporters are desperately arguing from their keyboards that any group of people in office can implement the new constitution since it has already been passed. Nonsense. Why are we here with a new constitution. It is precisely because Jomo Kenyatta our first president and Moi after him helped to mutilate a fairly descent Lancaster katiba to pieces. They cut it into a thousand parts and brought to the country horror and death if you ever tried to stop them. Mutilating the constitution to serve selfish political interests is not new Kenya. That is exactly why we are where are now. Do we want to do it again. May be not. We have learnt our lessons, I guess.

        So this nonsense that anybody can implement the new constitution including those who viciously opposed it is utter nonsense. CORD needs to frame this issue in their campaigns. It will be done. Trust me on that.

  19. Cord trounces Jubilee in new opinion poll

    KENYA: Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s Cord has topped the latest opinion poll as the most preferred coalition in the country.

    The poll, conducted by Strategic Africa, shows that Cord is the most popular alliance in the country with popularity of 49.7%.

    Jubilee, despite its much publicised wrangles, polled second at 43%.

    Peter Kenneth and Raphael Tuju’s coalition came in third at 3.1% while Eugene Wamalwa’s Pambazuka alliance polled at 1.7 %.

    When respondents were asked who they preferred as their coalitions flag bearer, 92.8% of the respondents stated they would prefer Raila Odinga as Cord’s flag bearer while 6.2% prefer Kalonzo Musyoka.

    In the Jubilee alliance which comprises Uhuru, Mudavadi And Ruto, 71.9% would prefer Uhuru Kenyatta as the presidential candidate whereas 18.4% would like to see Musalia Mudavadi as the Jubilee flag bearer.

    The poll which was released on Friday, agrees with Ipsos Synovate’s recent survey which showed in a possible scenario where Raila is twinned with Kalonzo and pitted against an Uhuru/Ruto ticket, 47 per cent of Kenyans would vote Raila/Kalonzo while 41 per cent would vote for the later.

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000073415&story_title=Kenya-Cord-trounces-Jubilee-in-new-opinion-poll

    NOTE: These polls ties very closely with our internal DC polls.

  20. Ipsos Poll: NAIROBI COUNTY

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/ktn/index.php?videoID=2000062507&video_title=News-Synovate-releases-exclusive-poll-on-Nairobi-County

    Disclaimer: I do not view the Ipsos/Synovate Poll credible HOWEVER I wish to ignite debate especially from the Nairobians like Phil. Maajabu kweli!

    CORD – 52%
    JUBILEE – 39% (before the Mudavadi fallout)

    GOVERNOR:
    Margaret Wanjiru – CORD 29%
    Ferdinand Waititu – JUBILEE 20%
    Evans Kidero – CORD 15%
    Jimnah Mbaru – JUBILEE 11%
    John Gakuo – INDEPENDENT 5%
    Phillip Kisia – CORD 4%

    SENATOR:
    Mike Sonko – JUBILEE 59%
    Fred Gumo – CORD 25%

    WOMEN REP:
    Rachel Shebesh JUBILEE 25%
    Elizabeth Ongoro CORD 10%

    • Job

      before we even comment on that list, where is Miguna Miguna in the line-up?
      after all the capital invested in Miguna and his book. wow…

    • Job,

      Please do not fall for this poll! It is Jubilee Alliance’s trick to hoodwink CORD!!

      CORD should conduct their own independent poll to determine their strength in Nairobi and all over the country!!

      Don’t we not know the tricks of the devil by now?

      CORD please do not fall asleep!!

      • Einstein,

        I guess you missed my opening disclaimer. I cannot fall for Synovate’s poll because I don’t believe they have much credibility in the first place. CORD’s prospects for Nairobi are very encouraging…in fact spiking upwards immediately after the merger with Wiper. And sure, there is indeed internal polling going on throughout this year and into next year. The immediate thing to keep vigilance about – the devil trying to pounce at CORD’s backdoor …the way they peeled off Ruto and Mudavadi. So long as CORD can hold till mid January…prospects are likely to even get better.

      • Job,

        Thanks for the reassurance. We cannot afford to be distracted by Jubilee’s sideshows. In any case I know you as a thorough person who cannot be easily hoodwinked by the devil!

        Cheers!

    • Job,
      The parties are yet to carry out their nominations for the gubernatorial & senatorial positions in Nairobi, so, Ipsos/KTN are jumping the gun on this one. The other factor is that most of the Nairobians are still ignorant with regards to the new positions. This is akin to extrapolating the results of a 38 day soccer season on the 2nd day. I don’t think Shebesh will be anywhere near the women rep. position. But what must be stressed to CORD is that they can’t afford to impose candidates on the electorate like they did with Ndolo in 07. With that said, I hope Kidero becomes the flagbearer for governor in Nairobi because I think he has the requisite managerial skills to make an excellent governor. I don’t know whether he has the political skills to handle Margaret Wanjiru though.

      • Siguda,
        Let’s face it. Even though Nairobi has some of the most educated and moneyed people, their choice has always been wrong. That’s why the city makes two steps forward and three steps back. There is nowhere in Kenya dunderheads and empty debes are elected but Nairobi. I can bet my last sufuria of ugali that Sonko and Waititu would never be elected outside Nairobi. So don’t be surprised if another empty debe in the name of Shebesh is elected. Smart people are elected by villagers.

  21. Latest opinion polls give CORD an edge over JUBL

    http://www.synovate.co.ke/spr/downloads/….mber_142012.pdf

    Nairobi, Kenya: The Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (Cord) will beat the Jubilee coalition if presidential elections were held today, a poll released by Ipsos Synovate has shown.

    The polls showed 47 percent of Kenyans would vote for the Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka coalition while 41 percent will vote for Uhuru Kenyatta-William Ruto ticket in the presidential elections.

    Should Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi be the Jubilee alliance presidential candidate and Eldoret North MP William Ruto his running mate, then Cord coalition will beat them at 48 percent to 38 percent.

    The polls showed Kenyans preferred the Uhuru-Ruto ticket a than the Uhuru-Mudavadi ticket.

    At the same time, Raila remained the preferred presidential candidate among Kenyans with 34 percent saying they would vote for him.

    Another 27 percent said they would vote for Uhuru, five percent for Musalia.

    Kalonzo’s popularity dropped to three percent while Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth rose to four percent.

    Ruto’s popularity also dropped to two percent while one percent said they will vote for Gichugu MP Martha Karua.

    —————-
    The only thing not mentioned is if its the newly registered that have been asked the questions or not.

    The bible says of the Year of Jubilee

    Every forty-ninth year a Jubilee was proclaimed:

    “Then you shall cause the trumpet of the Jubilee to sound on the tenth day of the seventh month; on the Day of Atonement you shall make the trumpet to sound throughout all your land. And you shall consecrate the fiftieth year, and proclaim liberty throughout all the land to all its inhabitants. It shall be a Jubilee for you; and each of you shall return to his possession, and each of you shall return to his family.” (Leviticus 25:9-10).

    Any Hebrews that were at that time in a condition of bondage were freed:

    • mzee,

      These polls(from PNU type favourite pollster and not the other Luo pollster) must be giving the tribal mathematicians sleepless nights. They were already preparing the parade routes after coronating muthamaki the president by merely adding registered Kikuyu voters with Kalenjin voters. They were just waiting for a little top up from the Luhya vote so as to get 70% of the vote. Poor things. Let them stay under that rock.

      Meanwhile Uhuru is busy trying to make this election a fight between Kenya and the West. Big blunder. That is a double losing formula. Kenyans do not want a war with the US and Europe. Uhuru should keep this up.

      Here is what I am talking about:

      http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-99467/uhuru-tells-eu-usa-not-interfere

    • Kalonzo and Ruto’s ratings dropped because they are no longer considered to be running for president, and this has seen a corresponding rise in undecided voters by a whopping 10% to 22%. This is a huge swing vote that strategist at Orange House must think about converting to their side. Most of this vote is apparently in the Rift Valley, Kalenjin Counties.

      This election is for CORD coalition to lose. Like you said elsewhere @Mzee, WDP must be seen to be actively promoting CORD alliance because as things stand now, it is only ODM that is campaigning on the ground for increased voter registration and selling its agenda to the people.

      The Bukusu vote that has had Eugene and Jirongo excited cannot be assumed either. FORD-K has work cut out for itself. I could not help notice loudmouthed FORD-Ks like Bifwoli Wakoli giving CORD a wide berth. In this case the PM must go to the ground with his senior most partners and they engage elders and grassroot opinion leaders like they have done in the North Rift.

      I see CORD’s rating increasing to above 50% after the rally planned for Uhuru Park on 27th. See here http://cordkenya.blogspot.com/2012/12/cord-coalition-plans-major-uhuru-park.html

      This is the same rally CORD must use to persuade and convert Nairobi’s youthful population to its side. As opposed to giving budding politicians a chance to “greet the people”, I would prefer CORD unleashes a summary of its programs for the youth to understand where the party is coming from. It is no longer about the GUMO’s and ONGORO’s. Most youth would rather spend time socializing in pubs and clubs since political agenda has become boring and monotonous, and jobs are not forthcoming yet the years a flying past.

      I cannot imagine a situation where CORD shares Nairobi with Jubilee on a 50/50 basis. This is a strategic county and the most significant of all them. Anyone controlling the county politically will call lots of shots elsewhere. In line with the ODM manifesto, the youth must be convinced that CORD is serious about creating jobs and empowering them economically. I have seen some ODM governor candidates being jockers who still have the mindset of tribal math. I wont mention names, but your guess is as good as mine. Nairobi governor (and his/her running mate) must come with solid credentials that the informal sector can believe in. That is where the votes are. Currently I believe the TNA is heads and shoulders above ODM in that sector.

      (unedited)

    • i still think that although these polls can provide some basic insight, they are highly inaccurate

      the biggest trouble is that people soon forget and are overtaken by other events

      for instance lets look at at at least one outcome that can be verified today and within the next couple weeks, turn to page 8 of that document, i.e voter registration according to that poll, voter registration will be well over 90% in fact states that 97% will register. Yet the data we have from IEBC states that only about 60% of eligible voters are going to register. clearly ipsos needs to tell us a little more about their data and sample space. with such a significant disparity in that base number, it then follows that the forecast for voting outcome is based on a significant number of people that will most likely NOT be voting.

      i also dont get the question “which political party alliances/coalitions are aware of” and even worse the response that mirrors prefered coalitions. in my view if that question was asked properly it should elicit 90% awareness all around and then prefered coalition to give the 48, 41 etc percentages. wierd.

      • The reason for not fully trusting the polls is that they have not sampled the newly registered (BVR) voters. When the polling is done on the new register then we will come closer to truth.

        But what they tell us which we must take to the bank is that the polls will not be 100% tribal.

  22. Poll shows Mudavadi best suited candidate for jubilee

    NAIROBI, Kenya, Dec 9 – Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi will likely become Kenya’s fourth president if endorsed to contest under the TNA, UDF and URP coalition, a survey released on Sunday shows.

    The poll by Strategic Insight International shows he will only succeed if he contests with Eldoret North MP William Ruto as his running mate.

    The firm’s founding partner and researcher Fazul Mahamed said the poll had revealed that a Mudavadi-Ruto ticket will get 49 percent of the vote compared to 41 percent for a CORD ticket with Prime Minister Raila Odinga as the presidential candidate.

    “If Mudavadi is given the ticket to stand on behalf of the Jubilee alliance, then he will automatically take the presidency,” Mahamed said when he released the poll results at a Nairobi hotel on Sunday.

    The poll targeting 1874 respondents was conducted over three days following the Tuesday announcements of the two coalitions.

    The opinion poll was conducted on seven political regions that include Mombasa, Machakos, Nairobi, Garrisa, Nakuru, Kisumu and Kakamega.

    “Chances of there being a run off if Mudavadi is given the ticket were almost nil,” Mahamed said, “If somebody like Mudavadi runs as president, he will consolidate the Western votes, in coast people don’t have a problem with him and he doesn’t have any sort of tribal tagging.”

    In Nairobi, 292 people were interviewed and 43 percent of correspondents said they were supporting the CORD pact, 41 percent said they were supporting the TNA, URP, UDF pact, 5 percent said they are behind Narc Kenya’s Martha Karua while 9 percent said they back the Peter Kenneth-Raphael Tuju pact.

    2 percent of those interviewed said they were undecided.

    Uhuru has assured that the Jubilee coalition nomination process will be fair and vowed to respect its outcome, even as a section of Central Kenya MP’s in his TNA party threatened to pull out if he does not vie for the Presidency.

    If Kalonzo was to get the CORD pact nomination for president, 24 percent of those polled said they will support him, while 72 percent of correspondents said they will support a Raila contest. Most of those interviewed said Kalonzo is best placed to be Raila’s running mate.

    Raila was on Friday endorsed by the ODM national delegates conference to contest the presidency.
    Mahamed however, argues that it’s still very early in the campaign process and future alliances may shift the advantage from coalition to coalition, especially along tribal lines.

    “Eugene will have some serious impact, not because he has numbers, but because of the perception,” he said.
    “If Eugene decides to go to the Raila wing of the pact, then that wing will capture a lot of Luhya votes because of the public perception,” he added.

    Mahamed said that they also polled people on how they felt about retaining the provincial administration.

    “68 percent of the correspondents support the retaining of the provincial administration, 30 percent of the correspondents didn’t see the reason why they should be retained yet there are going to be governors and 2 percent are undecided,” he said.

    “80 percent of them supported restructuring of their roles in the new devolved system while 20 percent stated that their current role should remain as it is,” he added.

    When asked about the security of the county, Mahamed noted that 63 percent of those polled preferred the county commissioners to be in charge, 28 percent preferred the governor and 8 percent didn’t care who was in charge.

    Those who preferred county commissioners to be in charge of security cited political interference as a concern if an elected person is

    http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2012/12/poll-shows-mudavadi-best-suited-candidate-for-jubilee/

  23. Quite interesting analysis, apparently 58% of Ruto’s supporters will vote for Uhuru should Ruto not stand, as opposed to 17% of uhuru;s supporters rooting for Ruto should Uhuru not contest.
    Are the grounds being prepared for Ruto to be a running mate ? taking to into account that i have never heard Ruto campaigning for Uhuru in Rift Valley, neither has Uhuru visited Ruto’s backyard in his own capacity.
    i am seeing a ‘Romney’ build up here.

  24. tnk,
    I know what you mean but let me just play around with the figures as they are provided by synovate.

    Synovate people have never been forthright when it comes to polling. They do little tricks here and there hoping that none one will notice.

    For example, when it comes to where the votes of losing candidates will go to incase of a run off, they deliberately choose to ignore Mudavadis votes. We all know that majority of Western Kenya votes will simply revert to ODM but that’s not the picture the guys want to make us see.

    But looking at the whole thing critically, it’s obvious to me that the variables that are going to impact of the runoff are still unknown hence the difficulty of such a prediction rightly.

    Lastly, many in Kenya assume that there will a coalition between Uhuru and Ruto and their supporters might be basing their answers on this premise. ODM has not chosen its running mate so, one can draw the conclusion that the poll is about Raila the person. Should that be the case then ODM need to just keep doing what they are doing because they already ahead of the pack

    My only advice and hope is for ODM to get a good running mate preferably from RVP and let the battle begin. This is a fight TNA will not win.

  25. these polls are determined to sway public opinion and in many cases lack objectivity or are too skewed to be realistic pointers.

    some of the questions and responses are also meaningless but i guess have become so negative i may be missing out something. will take a closer look and come back to this

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