Anxiety as ODM Prepares to Announce Pre-Election Alliance Partners

A short while ago, SC James Orengo, a close confidant of Prime Minister Raila Odinga moved to publish a facebook update on his page that was clearly aimed at calming the nerves of party supporters who are getting apprehensive at the lack of an alliance building on the ODM side.

 

The PM’s office had earlier in the day released a weekend campaign program that takes him to Western, Coast and possibly Uganda to receive an award, and despite the widely reported sealing of URP/TNA deal, the cool manner in which the PM is going about his business did not calm ODMers and have got keen political observers trying to figure out what the ODM will pull out next.

With TNA and URP having sealed a deal that is set for public unveiling this weekend in Nakuru, ODM supporters have been shifting uneasily on their seats especially after some civil society activists this morning unexpectedly withdrew a suit from court challenging the eligibility of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto to run for elections.

During the history of multiparty politics in Kenya no other politician has aligned himself with other parties and individuals for purposes of advancing a political cause as ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga and it would be a surprise if the deadline for submission of pre-election alliance agreements passes with ODM going into the general elections as a single party.

There has been discussions going on between ODM and WDP, and the Standard reported yesterday that ODM’s priority was to bring UDF and WDP onboard as the ultimate weapon of neutralising the GEMA and KAMATUSA alliance that Uhuru and Ruto have been working to mobilise for well over three years now. Both WDP Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and UDF Presidential Candidate Musalia Mudavadi insisting that they both must be on the presidential ballot paper. What viable options remain for ODM if not these two?

This question will be answered in the next few days when the it is expected Raila Odinga will pull a huge surprise and unveil an alliance that will form one part of the two horse race he has consistently pointed out to voters. The ODM plans a historic National Delegates Convention on 7th December 2012 where the presidential nomination will dominate the agenda of the day.

It is a poorly kept secret in political circles but the ODM running mate ticket now appears the most attractive prospect for a majority of the candidates who were previously either going it alone or were inclined towards the Uhuru Ruto axis. ODM has remained the most popular party for the last 5 years as has its party leader in all presidential opinion polls.

The grapevine is saying a deal with ODM partner parties was sealed a while ago and an announcement was strategically held back so that the TNA/URP declaration does not pull the rug under ODM and alliance partners.

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20 comments on “Anxiety as ODM Prepares to Announce Pre-Election Alliance Partners

  1. Its now official. Pre-election deals signed bringing up to 14 political parties into CORD – Coalition for Reform and Democracy, which will be the name on the ballot paper.

    • Phil,
      After watching the signing, I find Kalonzos speech very strange and laced with his normal silliness. I dont know what he wanted to achieve but he seemed to suggest that the positions of the president and running mate are yet to be filled. Yet he was at the sametime suggesting that the deal was done. On this point the Uhuruto gang were very clear. It was Uhuru for president and Ruto for deputy. This fellow never ceases to amaze with double speak.

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  3. Is it true that there’s a pre-election deal between ODM ,WDM and FK? As long as i keep hearing from the media, Mutula, Muthama and Kalonzo with nothing official from ODM, i will treat it as a rumor. I don’t like the idea of wiper as running mate so am praying this isn’t true 🙂

    There’s the ODM NDC cum presidential launch coming up this weekend. If true, will the 5000 delegates approve this last minute deal, or will they give the presidential nominee a free hand to go for a post-election coalition just in case he does not win in round one but qualifies for run-off? Am hoping the latter is the case.

  4. Kalonzo: I am not ready to be anyone’s running mate

    null
    Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka and Special Programmes minister Esther Murugi join an entertainment troupe at during celebrations to mark the World Aids Day at Afraha Stadium, Nakuru December 1, 2012. Mr Musyoka said he was not ready to be anyone’s running mate in the next General Election.

    Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka has said he is not ready to be anyone’s running mate in the next General Election.

    Mr Musyoka dismissed reports that the Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM) party had agreed a pre-election deal with the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM).

    “For anybody to suggest that I, Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka, can be somebody’s deputy is misleading the Kenyan population,” he said during celebrations to mark the World Aids Day at Afraha Stadium in Nakuru Saturday.

    “I am not saying that it can’t happen. I am just saying that it has not happened,” said Mr Musyoka.

    The VP said Wiper’s national executive council has not met to discuss pre-election issues as reported in the media.

    “What I read in sections of the media are not accurate because our party’s national executive council has not met to discuss on such a document and I wonder which part of the world we are in when we read such statements.”

    Mr Musyoka, however, said that his party was ready to engage in talks with other political parties.

    “But this does not mean that we cannot talk to each other as Kenyans,” he said.

    He told the meeting attended by Cabinet minister Esther Murugi, assistant minister Lee Kinyanjui and PS Andrew Mondoh among others that the December 4 deadline to deposit coalition agreements with the Registrar of Political Parties has created anxiety among Kenyans.

    He said life will move on after that date and even after the March 4, 2013 General Election.

    Mr Musyoka said he will name his running mate on January 4 next year, which will be the deadline according to the law.

    He distanced himself from coalitions based on tribal arithmetic.

    “We should not auction our communities. Coalitions should not be about how many votes you can bring to the table. I am ready to talk to any Kenyan leader who wants to form a coalition of ideas.”

    The Vice President said smaller parties can merge to form a strong coalition that can accommodate all communities for the sake of peace and stability.

    He said Kenyans should elect leaders irrespective of tribal and political affiliations……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/-/1064/1634456/-/aglw5i/-/index.html

    • akinyi let me post the youtube clip below

      kalonzo sounds distressed and angry – my jaw dropped to the floor and beyond. unbelievable

      • This is interesting indeed. Kalonzo was taken to the cleaners by kibaki and is obviously distressed. Good news for ODM even though I’m not sure how it will be received at the grassroots. I will send a few sms and emails to gauge the ground.

        Personally, I prefer a post election deal. But here we are.

      • mzee, i think kalonzo may have expected some goodwill from kibaki, and registered the disappointment, but i think what has crushed him is the final realization that he means absolutely zero to any of the coalitions of uhuruto and also to that being bandied by NFK, UDM and what not remember he always has very kind words for former RV.

        its this realization that has hit home solidly and is stinging him more than anything else, i.e that not only is RV not paying attention, but that these relatively junior politicians have totally upstaged him to the point of irrelevance. ….ouch…. and to think that he “saved” kibaki or central bacon ….. double ouch ….. and that he spearheaded the “shuttle diplomacy to save the ocampo 1 … er… 2 ….. er. …. 4.
        triple ouch …… waaaahhhh!!! sob sob, sniff sniff…..

        and that he has had to do a complete about-face and eat at the ODM house when he had vowed that the could never ……. wow. … thats the toughest position ever. listen to him talk about tribal politiics, something we’ve been talking about since 2005, where was he?

        hehehe, he needs to be encouraged to talk more…. lets wait and see how the TNA (and oh yeah URP) machine will handle the turned tide of Kalonzo and Wamalwa

        That may turn out to be rather interesting.

        Also please note, I doubt that Ngilu will last in that camp, she is too much of a reformer to get swallowed by that young yuppie frenzy, but who knows time will tell

        and we have yet to start playing politics – saa hii badi tuko changing room, bado hatujaingia kiwanja

        i hope ODM leaders keep their ears open, because we are getting ready to hit the ground

      • You were right on the money on Charity Ngilu. She is with CORD the Raila/Kalonzo/Wetangula coalition. Its amazing how things have moved fast in the last week. Looks as if Mudavadi is going it alone. What a lonely man.

      • tnk & others,

        I noticed a few things.

        1. We have not heard from the ODM side but it is obvious the deal is done.

        2. Kalonzo has to do a lot of walk back and one of them is to tell his constituency that he will contest the nomination with Raila to determine who stays at the top of the ticket. I think ODM supporters should allow that room for him. There is no need for high handedness. Kalonzo is signing for the deputy and he has accepted that but I hope ODM leaders don’t get worked up and start giving him trouble with that. Give the man space to breath. Once you sign the agreement there is nowhere else to go. It is what it is.

        3. Ngilu is not sitting pretty. She is not a signatory to the Uhuruto deal and has nothing other than may be a promise of money from Uhuru to campaign to be an M.P. Let her eat the money. Folks are going to eat Uhuru’s money but they will vote with whoever has support on the ground. So bring the cash please.

        4.ODM has its work cut out for it. They have to sell this ticket to their base and the entire national supporters they have.

        5. With Kalonzo snatched from the UDF axis the ODM wiper team becomes the obvious alternative to the radioactive coalition of the accused. ODM will take this thing to the run-ff and mop the floor with those guys as they head to The Hague.

        6. The new integrity court case done by Ndung’u Wainaina and co which was certified today and which is ten times more focused will throw a big wrench in the election. Yes Uhuru and Ruto will be allowed to run but they will be told in no uncertain terms that the ICC case has all the hallmarks of being material for compromised integrity should they ever win. Whether the two bulls will decide to just wade on and deal with the mud later on we don’t know. But ideally they would have preferred to have a Mudavadi Kalonzo alliance to fall back to. I am still puzzled as to why Uhuru did not spend half his fortune to make that happen. In my view a Mudavadi/Peter Keneth alliance will not sit well with Uhuru and Ruto as a fall back if they find they are wasting their time which they will. They don’t like Peter Keneth and him being with Mudavadi just makes the panya routes that more difficult to find. A Mudavadi Peter Keneth ticket cannot promise to sacrifice the country to save Uhuru and Ruto.

        7. ODM will have to very quickly after the weekend launch of the race get the strengths of having Kalonzo with them. As I said before Kalonzo brings a peace of mind to the more conservative constituency in Kenya which is huge and may make Raila and ODM more palatable to a whole new constituency that was not going to vote for them. ODM has to harness that while not forgetting their core constituency which are Kenyans who want real changes and an end to the oligarchy at State House which has put the country through hell and back.

      • Adongo,

        Thanks for that! Twendeni kazi sasa. We gotta work with what we got! Let us give Kalonzo a chance even if I would have wished otherwise! There is no time to whine now.

        Long Live Kenya!

  5. Mutula leads talks to unite Kalonzo, Raila

    Allies of Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka met on Thursday to fine-tune a pre-election agreement ahead of the December 4 deadline for registering such deals.

    The meeting took place at the Jogoo House office of Education Minister Mutula Kilonzo, who is heading the Wiper Democratic Movement’s team in the talks. Read (Alliances: Parties rush to catch Kalonzo’s eye)

    It was attended by Livestock assistant minister Gideon Ndambuki (Wiper) and Cabinet ministers James Orengo (Lands), Dalmas Otieno (Public Service) and Gem MP Jakoyo Midiwo from ODM.

    Mr Kilonzo, who is also Wiper secretary-general, confirmed the meeting but refused to give more details.

    He said the deal would be ready before the December 4 deadline for political parties to deposit any agreements with the registrar of Political Parties.

    “We have just met. We are at an advanced stage and we will have a deal before next week. We are just waiting for our party leaders to ratify the deal,” he stated.

    He hinted at the possibility of the United Democratic Forum (UDF) of Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi being brought on board.

    “We are talking to other parties, but I will not tell you which ones because I will be revealing our strategies,” he said.

    The Nation also learnt that the two parties were planning to hold a joint rally at the Tononoka Grounds in Mombasa at the weekend.

    At the same time, Justice Minister Eugene Wamalwa teamed up with three other parties to chart his own political course, a week after quitting the G7 alliance.

    Mr Wamalwa held a two-hour meeting with Mr Nicholas Biwott of National Vision Party and Gen (rtd) John Koech of the United Democratic Movement at Norfolk Hotel in Nairobi and announced the composition of a technical committee to harmonise the alliance.

    The fourth party, Kanu, was not represented even though it is said to be part of the deal as per an earlier agreement.

    “In the G7 alliance, there are those who have agreed and there are those who have not. There is still time before the December 4 date, after which Kenyans will make a choice from what alliances there will be,” said Mr Wamalwa.

    Kanu secretary-General Nick Salat told the Nation on phone that more parties would join the alliance.

    “It is a much broader alliance than you saw in the attendance. We are not unveiling everything now as our opponents will take advantage, but we shall agree and give a binding announcement before the deadline.”

    It was not immediately clear whether Mr Wamalwa will be the presidential bearer of the group, because only his party has a presidential aspirant, or they will team up with yet another coalition.

    UDM director of elections Stanley Rotich said the meeting amended a pre-election clause to accommodate Mr Wamalwa’s New Ford Kenya, which was not part of an earlier coalition agreement.

    “We agreed that each party brings forth three members each. We shall sign the deal before Tuesday,” said Mr Rotich.

    Elsewhere, TNA leader Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr Mudavadi met at a Karen restaurant on Wednesday evening in what sources said was a plan B should the former be blocked from running for the presidency on integrity grounds.

    Mr Kenyatta has already sealed a deal with United Republican Party leader William Ruto with whom they faces charges of crimes against humanity at The Hague over the 2007/8 post election violence.

    It is understood Mr Kenyatta was categorical that he would support Mr Mudavadi if he was not cleared to run for the presidency.

    Mr Musyoka left the G7 alliance after he was allegedly given a junior position believed to be Majority Leader.

    Last week, Mr Musyoka and Mr Mudavadi said they were working on a coalition but it was not immediately clear how the new development would affect the relationship.

    The VP and PM parted ways in 2007 after failing to agree on who among them would be the ODM Kenya presidential candidate.

    On Thursday, the alliance between Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto received a boost after a case which sought to bar them from running for the presidency on integrity grounds was withdrawn.

    However, the Attorney General has sought legal interpretation at the Supreme Court on whether Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto’s right to seek elected office is more important than the integrity provisions of the Constitution.

    The two leaders will on Sunday hold a joint rally at Nakuru’s Afraha Grounds to drum up support for their

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Mutula-leads-talks-to-unite-Kalonzo-Raila/-/1064/1633066/-/s8ca93/-/index.html

  6. Phil,
    I know that you are often on the money when it comes to ODM issues. But my question to you is this, can we actually believe something that Orengo has posted on his facebook page to represent the official position of ODM. But I will wait and see.

      • phil,

        meeting all day ? 🙂 sounds to me like what everyone has been doing for the past couple of months – doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

        am guessing WDP is represented in these talks by muthama,mutula, minus wiper himself who is away in Malaysia ( jeez those people must be tired of hosting kenyan leaders week after week). what next for wiper now that he has effectively been thrown out of the G7 mbus and his financiers have shifted their interest elsewhere? i have a feeling he may opt to go for senator. interesting days ahead i tell you.

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