NFK, NVP, & UDM sign pre-poll pact

NAIROBI, Kenya Nov 29 – As the deadline for political parties coalitions comes to an end on Tuesday, New Ford Kenya (NFK), New Vision Party (NVP), the Kenya African National Union and the United Democratic Movement (UDM) have signed a deal to work together to ensure victory in the forthcoming general election.

Led by Justice and Constitutional Affairs Minister Eugene Wamalwa who bolted out of the G7 fronted by Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto, the parties said they are in talks with Western Kenya presidential hopefuls in a bid to bring them on board.

“In the G7 alliance there are those who have agreed and there are those who disagree but that is the nature of politics. Even in marriage, its compromise between two people that makes it work,” Wamalwa said.

“For now we would like to assure Kenyans that talks are still ongoing and on December 4 Kenyans will be able to see which teams have come together and which coalitions will be ready to take them to the next general election. They will have the opportunity to decide which coalition of parties they will want to identify with,” he said.

Wamalwa said this coming weekend will be critical for political parties as they seek to beat Tuesday’s deadline for political parties to submit their pre-election deals with the Registrar of Political Parties.

“We will campaign on a joint platform to tell our members that the political journey will begin,” he said.

He said they are engaging other parties to ensure they have a comprehensive coalition agreement.

“So what we signed today is the first step towards the realisation of that coalition that will be in place ahead of the March 4 general election.”

New Vision Party chairman Nicholas Biwott welcomed New Ford Kenya to the grouping of the parties which also included the United Democratic Movement, headed by Major General (Rtd) John Koech.

“We were with you last week when we were announcing the formation of this political grouping (between NVP and UDM) but today we are here to receive the NFK and also sign an agreement to allow other parties to join us as we go, that’s why Major General (Rtd) John Koech is here otherwise we had concluded our bit,” Biwott said.

The parties have come together under the agenda of uniting Kenyans; ensure peace and prosperity for all.

The announcement comes as The National Alliance (TNA) party and the United Republican Party (URP) prepare to announce a pre-election deal.

http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2012/11/four-political-parties-announce-coalition-pact/

 

 

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32 comments on “NFK, NVP, & UDM sign pre-poll pact

    • unless we know the details of this pact, and that the faithful and loyal ODM brigade are in agreement, i really dont see much use for Kalonzo. this is truly a case of a runaway bride coming back a little too late in the day, but heck politics is a strange game

    • Folks,

      Word on the ground as of right now is that the Uhuruto mob are holed up in a meeting at Michuki’s hotel in Nairobi and Mudavadi has been summoned there. It appears a section of the oligarchy that dragged Mudavadi out of ODM have panicked with the CORD new development and are now considering sponsoring Mudavadi instead. My guess is that Ruto will hit the roof and there could be fist fights. Hehehehehehehe. Things are hot hot. We are going to know in a few hours. Feedback is coming.

      adongo

      • Adongo,
        Na mambo bado.
        The show yesterday by the Uhuruto mob was just a joke ama?
        They did not believe what they were saying. Just yapping for no reason.

        hehehehehe

      • Mzee & Others,

        Yes they have herded Mudavadi to the slaughter House as a convict in the middle of the night. They are going to lure him with a generic deal and promise him that there will be a nomination process and that if the “jailbirds” as Martha Karua calls them are barred they will leave the ticket to Mudavadi and may be Sally. It is the ultimate humiliation.

        I said this much eons ago. A situation where a conrnered Uhuru and Ruto pick up an obvious puppet as a toliet paper to wipe their asses for relief is the worst thing that could ever happen to their picked puppets. It makes it obvious that they are picking a puppet to serve them not to serve Kenya.

        The best thing Uhuru and Ruto should have done a long time ago would have been to step said and claim it is because of their love for the country and support Mudavadi and Kina Kalonzo earlier in the game and let those people be their own men. You don’t wait until you are made fools of by the competition and you see your chances going to zero to them rush and grab somebody to be your toy.

        Then muthamaki is going to face the nightmare of walking back to earth after all the headswell and the money blown. Ngina is going to kill him. His TNA mobsters are going to kill him. Ruto has the same nightmare. Just yesterday they were yapping about having 60% of the vote now they have proved they have zero assessment of the Kenyan politics. We told them they were dreaming but their supporters have been on the moon for a few days, in fact months. Welcome back to our good earth. The sheer ignorance of some of those “analysts” is quite breathtaking. If you thought Mitt Romney and his mob were clueless dummies wait till you see ours. Endlessly on the wrong side of history. Na bado.

        These folks is a developing story. Guess who is on the defensive now. They want to grab the Luhya vote in the myopic tribal math trajectory. Guess what, you are not going to get it by making a complete fool of Mudavadi. Keep up the good work.

        I will come back to this after getting the nitty gritty on the ground.

        adongo

      • Can someone confirm whether it is true the last-minute deal signed by Uhuru, Ruto, and Mudavadi is premised upon:

        1) A joint-primary between Uhuru and Mudavadi ticket (president) with loser going for leader of majority in Senate; while Ruto remaining as running mate OR

        2) If court bars Uhuru and Ruto – Mudavadi and Sally go for it.

        deducing the three possible permutations of this coalition:

        a) UHURU-RUTO If Uhuru wins nomination (most likely)

        b) MUDAVADI-RUTO if Mudavadi beats Uhuru in nomination (highly unlikely)

        c) MUDAVADI – SALLY KOSGEY (if courts bar Uhuru and Ruto)

        How sweet could it be!!!!

      • job,

        That is basically it but here may be a few more nuances. I talked to my guys inside the belly off the lion this morning (our time) and they told me Mudavadi was actually summoned to the meeting which took place in Michuki’s hotel in Nairobi. The meeting was still going on when we talked.

        Initially the idea was for Uhuru to step down for Mudavadi outright and that be deposited as such, meaning it cannot be changed. Obviously Uhuru refused but did agree on the nomination bid. Being that Mudavadi is walking into Uhuru’s house and where he (Mudavadi) has no membership of his own to back him, that is another way of saying Uhuru will carry the ticket and Mudavadi will be the Majority Party leader. That is what they have signed but in order not to embarass Mudavadi(as if he can be embarassed any further) they have it look like there is some hope for Mudavadi on top of the ticket.

        Alternatively there was great fear that should the courts outrightly bar the suspects there would be nobody left in the TNA/Ruto alliance for the group to sponsor. So Mudavadi is being given that option. That is crap for many reasons. First the courts are very unlikely to outrightly bar them. It will warn them they are doomed if they win.

        Second and this is the bomb, the court ruling will definitely come in after January 4, 2013 after the nominations. There is no chance in hell that the courts will decide the case within the next three weeks. They have been delaying the case thinking that was in their best interests. Well now they need the court decision like yesterday. What else is new. These guys do one thing today thinking it is great for them and tomorrow the opposite is more desirable. Remember when they killed the Hybrid system in naivasha thinking it was only good for Raila? Oh how they need it now!

        Ruto staying in the DPORK spot tells me Ruto wasn’t going to back down for anything. The bulldog wants it all. Well guess what the situation they find themselves in right now is as clear as mud and it could only get worse.

        The ticket for Uhuru to win this thing or at least give Raila hell would have been Mudavadi as the presidential candidate and Uhuru as his deputy. Mudavadi would have swept Western and if Uhuru delivered they would be safe and people wouldn’t panic about the pariah state (which is what is scaring the hell out of country) because with a safe president a deputy in trouble is manageable. But the greed of the Uhuruto mob and limited political grasp of the long term picture is what is killing these guys.

      • thanks for this insight adongo and job

        one thing we can read from history is this, uhuru is totally unpredictable

        he bolted from opposition leader totally out of the blue

        i see him bolting out of this TNA/URP hold in the same manner dealing a double body blow to ruto (he who lead RV in ousting his community from RV)

        uhuru has already made it clear that he will concede to mudavadi, and i think he is laying the ground for it. as soon as it becomes clear that ICC suspects cannot hold office, he is bolting and he will make sure to block ruto

        ruto once again is being played. because he will never get central vote. he never wanted to be junior to mudavadi. he cheated his folks he is going for top post, and now here, he is once again going to be overrun by events.

        this is one “coalition” or “alliance” where the principal partners simply have no trust of each other

      • tnk,

        I saw your last post after my reply to job. Your idea that Uhuru will abandon Ruto and hand the baton to Mudavadi is very hard to work because of the Ruto factor and his stubbornness to keep the DPORK position as well as the time factor. This new katiba closes any new alliances today and nothing else can be done until after the elections. That is why they had to herd Mudavadi right inside the Register’s office as time ran out to cook up something for him.

        So here is the nightmare. Ruto has been retained as the Deputy in the new coalition. That means the only changes expected are as to who leads the ticket and that is between Uhuru and Mudavadi. There is no way in hell that muthamaki can go to his supporters and give give them a ticket of Mudavadi and Ruto. They would throw up enmass. The only reason the muthamaki flock were even contemplating a union with Ruto whom they hate with a passion was that he was going to be Uhuru’s minion. So unless Mudavadi is a grand fool, which I don’t think he is, he already knows that he has been handed the position of Majority leader. Now you tell me, how does Mudavadi go sell that even to his own Maragoli folks. He is going to be the laughing stock of Western and the whole country.

        Secondly the much talked about coalition nominations must be done within three weeks. The nomination day is Jan 4, 2013. All these coalitions must come up with nomination rules and carry on the nomination in record time. There is no room for monkey business.

        ODM for example has already re-scheduled their NDC which was intended for this weekend. It will be re-scheduled for another week or so to accomodate all the myriad of parties in the CORD alliance. My sense is that when that convention is held, it will also be the mechanism to announce the presidential nominees. Essentially people already know who the presidential and deputy nominees are. The rest is just paper work to be done by members at the convention. The Uhuruto mob now with Mudavadi must also schedule a convention to nominate their presidential candidate as soon as possible. From the looks of it, Uhuru will hold the ticket with Ruto as his deputy just as was the case before. The only difference is Mudavadi has been brought in and probably now completely destroyed politically.

        The Integrity ruling will come alright but like I said it will be long after the nominations so whetever it is it will have no impact on the presidential candidates. People will have to live with the choices they make right now.

        After this hectic days everything goes back to voter registration. That is the real battleground right now. It has improved but everywhere is terribly behind. NE and Coast are in a complete mess. I talked to the guys and the plans we had were to use the forthcoming NDC for the leaders to read the riot act to all M.Ps and aspirants and get them working for at least a week. Now we have to come with other plans. One idea being floated by us is that ODM and now their allies tell all M.Ps and aspirants that when the time comes for members to vote for them for nomination, those members will be required to show their ODM/Allies membership card plus the new voters card to vote. There is no need bring in members to nominate you when they can’t even vote in the real election. We are going to push for that.

        The other thing is to push for civil society groups and politicians to demand that IEBC extends the registration to January 4, 2013 and to have registration go on over the holidays. Clerks can be paid to do that. People need money and during the holidays a whole bunch of people may have a better chance to register. The IEBC should be told that anything below 80% voter registration is unacceptable and cannot be tolerated. IEBC also have to appreciate that this the first time ALL Kenyans voters are being asked to register in 30 days. It is not possible. In the past only those not already registered were asked to do so. This time it is everybody.

      • Your idea that Uhuru will abandon Ruto and hand the baton to Mudavadi

        actually my thinking is that Uhuru does not make good decisions when cornered, prepare for a surprise, so far only the guys on his back are the ones driving his moves otherwise i think money issues would have prevailed and he’d have aborted this mission eons ago. mudavadi is just a stop-gap measure, but certainly he cannot leave his ship at the mercy of ruto. your point that central province without uhuru cannot stand ruto should be etched somewhere in stone. thats a cross ruto will carry to his grave. what he’s fooling around with noone knows sooner rather than later its going to explode in his face. for ruto, uhuru simply has to be the flag bearer otherwise he’s toast

        So unless Mudavadi is a grand fool, which I don’t think he is, he already knows that he has been handed the position of Majority leader. Now you tell me, how does Mudavadi go sell that even to his own Maragoli folks. He is going to be the laughing stock of Western

        adongo

        musalia is an idiot. i hear that he was ambushed in the wee hours of the morning to sign that declaration. the guy simply has no backbone, jirongo was ever so right

  1. Talk about eating humble pie……… Is ODM seriously considering an alliance with Wiper as VP? Have we forgotten so soon how wiper at the eleventh hour made a decision that would set the chain of events leading to pev?

    Someone alrsady mentioned it but i will repeat….. It would have been impossible for Kibaki to rig himself in without Wipers votes. The man has already been Vp once and in that capacity hasnt done much for Kenya, why is he even in consideration for that posts. I am not saying dont work with him after all this election will be a game of numbers; just not in that capacity. I think Henry Kosgey who has stood with odm through the trials is more deserving of that slot.

  2. tnk,
    You almost read it right. I think that the formations will be as follows
    URP/TNA aka toxic ticket
    ODM
    WDP
    URP/KADDU/FORD-K
    NAK
    KNC/POA the starehe boys lobby
    RK (Ole Kiyapi)

    Martha Karua with her strong head will be overrun by TNA in Central.
    Kajudas political life will end after 2013 for I dont think that he will be humble enough to join Raila in a colaition.

    So this thing is going to round two. Thats a given.

    • mzee,

      Here is the new kid on the block in the mad world of coalitions

      http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000071846&story_title=Kenya-ODM-deal-splits-Wiper,-jolts-UDF

      I am not sure this is going to work or where the ODM party members and overall leadership stand on this. It could be just another mirage and knowing Kalonzo this could be just a trick to push the hand of Mudavadi to let him top the ticket of a UDF Wiper alliance. I am going to talk to my sources inside the belly of the lion and will get back to folks here tomorrow.

      In any event we are looking at a run-off where Uhuru and Ruto will be defeated handily regardless of the strange formations.

      • Adongo,
        Before you come back with your verdict from the belly of the lion I will assume that there is no deal. Our newspapers have been taking us in circles, sometimes telling outright lies on these coalitions. So I have no confidence in what the Nation writes.

        Yes, Kajudas is the most unreliable fellow around town, so I don’t see how he can be trusted to tell the truth. But as you mentioned before, he might just be using ODM to push himself to the top of UDF ticket.

        I wont be surprised if he comes out and denies the whole thing tomorrow. Thats Kalonzo for you.

      • mzee,

        You are right. Just a few days ago they announced a deal between UDF and Kalonzo. We were told all that remained was for the deal to be signed. That came to zero. So we have every reason to doubt everything. But I will talk with the folks as soon as they wake up and get the whole picture.

        According to the story in the Standard TV, Henry Kosgey is the majority party leader in the deal.

        If people remember I did float this idea of ODM picking Kalonzo and reasoned that it would apppeal to the conservative constituency in the country who are nervous with Raila whom they think is radical which is just a myth. I figured Raila needed to give some assurance to that constituency which exists in all the communities. My fear was how such a deal would be acceptable to the ODM leaders like Henry Kosgey and others who have stood with ODM through thick and thin.

        As to ODM supporters working with Kalonzo and vice versa it is not too hard. In fact Kalonzo was supposed to be the running mate in 2007 but refused. If Ruto who is accused of organizing the murder and expulsion of Kikuyus in Rift Valley can work with Uhuru who is accused of murdering people in Naivasha and Nakuru can work together with Hague knocking profusely at the door, Raila and Kalonzo would work just fine.

        But the challenge for this alliance if indeed exists is to give Kenya a national agenda and not to engage in the nonsense of allocating regions and counties. The Uhuruto deal has some crazy provisions where in some areas in Rift Valley a Kikuyu is allocated the governor seat and a Kalenjin allocated a senatorial seat. That is insane considering in the same counties there are other communities.

        I don’t like the idea of allocating cabinet seats etc. A mature alliance that wants to serve Kenya should have only one provision, namely that they will appoint and or nominate qualified people of integrity from all the communities of Kenya. The 50:50 deal with Uhuru and Ruto seems to suggest that half government jobs will go to Kalenjins and half to Kikuyus. What happenes to the rest of us. Will we be expelled from the country.

        If these people want to win they have to market their alliance as the alternative to the chaos and uncertainty of the ICC coalition which is designed to condemn Kenya to the status of a pariah state. Their calling card must be the patriotic option to hold the country together and propel Kenya into the next stage in global politics and development. Ruto today in Eldoret was already fighting donor institutions like USAID.

        As Hague knocks harder at the door, expect the Uhuruto mob to go gaga about keeping Kenya away from foreign control and a drum beat against countries like the US and UK which they know will not cut them any slack on the Hague issue. Ruto and Uhuru wanted a referendum on the ICC. Give them one and you easily win this race. Like many others I want Uhuru and Ruto to be allowed to run even if the courts tell them holding office is out of the question. Let them run. It would be funny to see a situation where the courts tell them you can go a head but if you win we will throw you out. Also remember the AG, Githu Muigai has already taken the Integrity matter to the SC to decide whether Integrity chapter applies to elective positions. Expect the SC to issue their view on that before the elections. It will not be good news for Uhuruto. But let them run right into the abyss.

      • I too wait for the info from the lion’s belly. With Kalonzo you have to wait until it actually takes effect – to even believe it. Removing the traitor sign on the forehead can sometimes be difficult. But realistically what other choice did Kalonzo have?

        There is one person conspicuously missing from these mega deals of the day – UDF’s Musalia Mudavadi.

        There is a lot of cash (of course, tax-payer cash) being thrown around to confuse some of these folks…so I don’t blame slow reactionaries…I’m told Mudavadi was last seen slagging around the horizons of Nyeri. Probably son of Budamba is hovering around for Kibaki’s tosha. Will that surely help get votes away from Uhuru? Nada! Time is also in tick-tock mode.

        In the meantime, word from the ground suggests that the good people of Mulembe will have little to do with the toxic ticket to pariahdom (Uhuruto). Musalia should accurately read the wind vane – his judgment keeps coming into question. He has a knack for disembarking and walking away from winning outfits…

        G-7 was a real phandom (sic)…a poisoned chalice for two ICC-accused individuals called Uhuru and Ruto. Everyone has come to realize that. Eugene has already bolted out in protest…and the Bungoma folks are not enthused at the maltreatment of Wamalwa’s brother by the duo of criminal warlords. He was freaking promised the Veep…and he surely believed it….as he danced in those Mugiithis in prayer rallies… Kalonzo long figured out the same…when he was called to his face “a hyena waiting to gobble fallen limbs”. That’s the ahsante ya punda for all the shuttle diplomacy to wakina the late Gadaffi…and others.

        Even a trip to whine at Kibaki’s feet didn’t help…it was in fact met with strong rebuke from the PPS…sternly denying any tosharing of Kalonzo from Kibaki. For Kibaki to hand Kalonzo that kind of teke…as if forgetting the dark days he swore himself in the night is as idiomatic as a flash in the pan.

        Well…as Chinua Achebe would say…things fall apart. That’s the G-7 for you. It was like Amalinze the Cat; blowing hot air and thumping chest right before the fight. Okonkwo was in the meantime conserving energy for the actual fight. We know how the duel went down. Tha cat’s back finally touched the ground. Rest in peace G-7.

        Back to serious business, there is no need of brothers like Weakleaf nung’unikaring in the wilderness….Come baby…come back home !!!

        Reality is hitting home as the deadline approaches…and Musalia should not fail to rejoin the winning team before the dealine. By now he should already know that Kenyans will not vote for 2 ICC convicts, period!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! We still need UNEP at Gigiri and don’t wish for tough economic sanctions in the name of protecting two warlords. These folks should sober up and smell the coffee before its too late. Avoid drinking from the poisoned chalice at all cost!!!!

        unedited

      • job & others,

        There is no deal. It is a bunch of MPs trying to cook up things. ODM is going to go to the elections by itself. That is what I got from the belly of the lion. More later.

        Thank you very much.

      • Adongo

        Thanks for the update. What is worrying, is the apparent paralysis on ODMs machine to effectively counter all these stories doing the rounds. With all the resources and volunteers available at their disposal, ODM appears totally incapable of launching effective strategy. This is not about getting some well know Publicity magician but its about simply having a credible system for information dissemination from the Orange house. This is pathetic to say the least.

    • mzee
      looking at adongo’s reply and the article on TNA sponsoring candidates within ODM from the Joe Nyaga betrayal within story
      it looks like most politicians are finally coming round to the realisation that this will be a battle between only two or at most three major candidates
      that is a good thing
      if kalonzo does indeed endorse the WDM/ODM deal, that will be quite a surprising turn of events. its still not clear to me about how these inter-party coalitions will be handled on the ballot but am sure the sly politicians will find some method.
      i’ll wait till Dec 4 to see how many of these pacts will make it on printed paper
      although its all about scheming and all, working with kalonzo again is going to be uphill for ODM supporters. he has been labeled a betrayer from 2008 todate. he in turn has demonized raila/ODM to eastern pretty much the same way ruto did in RV, how this can be turned around with 3 months to an election will be a challenge

      • Folks,

        A few things that are worrisome from the sources I talked to.

        1. ODM has a very poor ground game. Voter registration is terrible and unless something happens in the next two weeks there will be millions of people in ODM strongholds who will not be registered voters. The guys I talked who talk to Raila every day are frustrated that their message to the leadership to take voter registration seriously have fallen on deaf ears. In some places with only two weeks left the voter registration is less than 10%. These people have told the big guns that those huge crowds they see in Mombasa in Busia etc most of them have not registered to vote. Folks are frustrated and mad but nobody is listening to them.

        Essentially the work ethic of ODM M.Ps is terrible. Ruto, love him or hate him, brought one thing to ODM and when he left he left with it. It is called hard work. ODM has not been able to replace Ruto’s hard work. M.Ps are lazy, they never go to their constituencies. They drink in the Nairobi and only want to be seen near Raila. People like Orengo are wasting time in useless talks instead of camping at home and pulling everybody to go register. Many voters do not know that everybody has to register even if they have the old voter card. That is the message Raila and his ODM team should be spreading everywhere. Get everybody out to go register. They need to have a ground game where every councillor has to work and go to every home to take people to go register. I told the guys not to despair and I argued with them that if we can get millions to vote in just one day it is possible to get everybody registered in the next two weeks. Raila should use every single one of his rallies asking who among the crowds have registered and telling those who have not to do so immediately.

        The guys told me there is no need for the big rallies now. That time is coming. Now they want the emphasis to be on getting every voter registered but the politicians are so addicted to seeing those crowds they ignore all good advice and it could be very costly.

        2. On the coalition business they told me it is not advisable to them because it will be fodder for their rivals. If Raila was to pick Kalonzo the entire Rift Valley will abandon him altogether. Even Western which has stood with Raila will rethink their options. Raila and ODM has to pick someone from the party and there is no time to rallty the party to accept someone from outside.

        The other problem with Mudavadi and Kalonzo is that everybody seems to have come to the conclusion that Uhuruto coalition is headed nowhere. Both Kalonzo and Mudavadi believe that when not if Uhuru and Ruto hit the roadblock particularly in the run-off when they should be at The Hague a situation will arise where the Uhuruto voters will go to either Kalonzo or Mudavadi. There is a school of thought out there that if Uhuru and Ruto are forced out the courts will be petitioned to allow whoever comes third to have a run off most likely against Raila and ODM and both those guys think they will have a chance. My sense is that the constitution only allows the first two to go to the run-off. However if Uhuru and Ruto face a technical knockout we will be a new territory.

        My message toi phil and others on the ground is to find away to get the M.Ps sto go home and work to register people. Time is running out.

      • adongo,

        the obsession with this and that alliance, trying to balance the ethnic equation and the issue of laxity in voter registration will surely haunt ODM when those huge crowds don’t translate into votes. where are the loudmouths when they are needed?

        I understand Annan and Mkapa are back in town and it’s interesting that among other things, they plan to urge kenyans to register as voters. what can be more embarrassing to our so called leaders than this?

      • Adongo,
        You are touching on something I have discussed with a number of friends. Namely, the voter registration in ODM turf. It seems to me that Raila has a belief that he need not repeat himself as far as voter registration goes. What he does not get is that he is being sabotaged at every stage. The system led by kibaki wants him to fail. There is no better way of doing this than disenfranchising his supporters.

        Now what to do? I think that it can still be one but ODM as a party has never been well organized at the grassroots. They are masters of big rallies but without votes the huge crowds are useless.

        Raila has no proper foot soldiers. Infact I don’t think uhuruto has but to them this is a life and death situation. So uhuruto have thrown in both money and energy. Nothing is stopping them even if it means stealing the vote.

        ODM or anybody for that matter must not wait for the courts to stop this gang. We don’t know what the courts are going to say. These guys must be beaten square. It can be done but Raila must start organizing

      • adongo thats a chilling revelation and great eye opener.

        ODM has an eleventh hour mien that will be their undoing. uhuruto have been campaigning since the ICC trials opened. whether they win the presidency or not, they will have quite a sizeable number of MPs. we have seen how duale, isaac ruto, etc vote on important issues. we know how the PNU outfit now reloaded as TNA vote on national issues

        these guys continue to do their homework or legwork and will be back in parliament. others who should be in parliament will be over-run by the TNA/URP euphoria.

        the alternative leadership from ODM is playing catch-up

        we need a drastic make-over

      • Now what do we do?

        I saw the Raila rally in Tononoka. Just impressive. I can understand why Raila and the ODM leadership need to show the country that ODM is the only national party in Kenya with a huge presence everywhere. The issues raised were pertinent. The land issue which is so dear to the people in that region is a big part of the puzzle. Uhuru Kenyatta will not win those votes. Take that to the bank. He is a beneficiary of his father’s land grabbing in the coast which was massive.

        So ODM is on very solid grounds. Same with North Eastern where the KDF launched a war on the citizens once again. They have been through that for generations. They are fed up with it and they will vote for ODM. And this brings us to the key question. How many of those people in the sea of humanity at Tononoka have registered to vote? 10%? May be. How many in Garissa are registering to vote 1%? May be.

        So how do we solve this problem and trust me it is not just an ODM problem. I will talk to the folks tomorrow and come up with suggestions on what to do. I would welcome contributions from everybody here but one thing that need to be done is to learn from Team Obama in the US, bless their souls! Nothing happens unless you plan it. That is the nature of politics. Let me put it this way. Without a solid ground game you cannot win an election.

        My sense is that ODM should employ about 1,000 staff or more for the next two weeks and allocate them in every county and constituency where they have a good presence. Pay them good money. Listen it costs more to organize some of these rallies than it would to pay 1,000 people for two weeks.

        The job of the staff would be to go to every home, cajole every voter, persuade people to go register as well as educate them that if you don’t register afresh now you will not be allowed to vote. I was talking to my sisters yesterday and these are very well informed people and I asked them if they have registered to vote and they were like ok we will do it soon. I was mad with them and told them not just to register but to ask their friends and employees to register. Give them time off to do so.

        I think those of us in the diaspora who are pissed off because we won’t be able to vote can do the country one favour. Call your family and friends and demand that they go register to vote. Heck send them money to cover the inconvinience. This is dead serious.

        And then we have the nightmare in Nairobi. Who do you think is going to travel from Nairobi to Migori or Taita Taveta to go register there? Very few. It is too expensive. Why not register in Nairobi and vote their for your president as well as your governor. Folks, we have our work cut out for us. We have to do it.

        And then we have to start pushing for the extension of the voter registration deadline. I have no idea if there are constitutional limitations on that. I will check and get back to you folks. It is work time fellas.

      • Adongo,

        You raise some pertinent points:

        (1) On ODM’s ground game – a couple of things

        I agree they have to up their game – I’ll not place this burden entirely on MPs many of whom will lose in 2013; but spread it to all other aspirants but more importantly councilors and those vying for other elective posts (reps, senators, governors).

        ODM should essentially demand from each contestants (serving or aspiring)- some proof of how many people they have so far mobilized to register – a list of their registered supporters. ALL ODM forums, meetings, and delegate conferences SHOULD now be based primarily on ONLY those who have registered. Candidates who never participated in registration should not expect a smooth ride into the primaries.. I would also NOT distribute a single T-shirt, security-gig, or role to anyone without the current voter ID. The secretariat and campaign fora should coordinate the kind of door-to-door mobilization effort (like Joho is doing) at this phase of registration…two weeks is an eternity; believe me.

        (2) Symbolic presence of ODM national leaders (including Raila) during voter registration drives in security hotspots such as Samburu, Turkana, Coast (MRC-labelled-areas) and North Eastern will encourage turnout and registration among otherwise scared folks who would have never gone anywhere near “Sirikal”…see my point on voter intimidation using GSU/AP and provincial administration below.

        (3) Much of the deficit in ground game and local presence is because Uhuru is outspending ODM and making TNA’s presence felt much more in battleground and marginalized areas – basically a case of unleashing moneybags early to out-swamp ODM’s popularity. A counter effort in all areas where TNA has gone MUST follow next year; I know ODM is mapping all these areas for counter-visits.

        Uhuru has been necessitated to sprint in this long distance race (run-off anticipated mid next year) partly because he has to try rehabilitating his name as an ICC criminal warlord.

        In the process, Uhuru/TNA has outspent ODM in village outposts (distributing water tanks to village schools and dispensaries etc); buying out rival party members (Narc K’s Mungatana, Narc/ODM’s Ngilu, Wipers Kilonzo, ODM’s Shebesh et al). The question is whether this latter strategy will work in the long run. It may be premature given some of his big-buck recipients (ala Eugene, Ngilu) even failed to show up at his Nakuru rally…sensing the direction of the local and international wind vane.

        Uhuru’s calorie-burning sprint and TNAs multi-billion shilling campaign is yet to move Uhuru’s popularity mark beyond projected proportion of his ethnic base – evidenced by the latest polls.

        4) I’ve crunched the IEBC registration numbers and here is a brief summary.

        (a) As per 26th November, 2012 (last week) IEBC update, it was a mixed picture…these will definitely change as more folks troop to register:

        – Central Kenya was leading by already registering about 28% of their eligible voters; followed by Luo Nyanza 26%; South Rift 25%; former Western 22%; Nairobi 22% and Meru/Upper Eastern 20%. These are the regions exhibiting signs of high enthusiasm or turnout.

        – Mid enthusiasm/or turnout in the range of 15% to 19% was recorded (by 26th November) in Kisii – 18%, Ukambani – 17%, and Coast – 17% (concentrated around Mombasa but poor in the outposts).

        – Low enthusiasm or turnout: Maasailand ~ 13%; Turkana ~ 10%; NEP ~ 8%.

        These figures reflect where ODM must direct its focus. The low rates so far in Maasailand, Turkana, upcountry Coast, and NEP are unacceptable!!!

        (5) a good case for extension of registration period for marginalized and large-area counties in Northern Kenya and NEP should be made. Census figures show that Turkana and Mandera counties are quite populated yet as dispersed as the Sahara desert. IEBC numbers so far registered are reflective of the harsh realities these Kenyans are subjected to in the name of exercising their right to vote.

        IEBC must improvise some mobile registration units to bring registration physically close to these people…even if it means timing the market days…The bare minimum should be an extension of the period for registration in these hardship areas…it’s just common sense…This is a Constitutional right!!!!

        (6) Another case for extension due to insecurity &/or ongoing security operations can also be made through the blatant illustrative cases of Samburu North (where the ongoing Baragoi military operation is located) and Garissa Town (where recent military skirmish sent youth scampering as far as Nairobi).

        (a) % of registered voters per Nov. 26th, 2012:

        Samburu North (where Baragoi is located) – 10.2%
        Samburu West (currently safe) – 21.6%
        Samburu East (currently safe) – 18%

        It is clear that of these three neighbouring constituencies; voter suppression (predominantly disenfranchising the Turkana at the expense of Samburu) can be demonstrated/proven specifically in Samburu North – which is registering half the number of its neighbouring constituency with similar physical/natural/geographic characteristics.

        This raises the serious question about the role of nominated (KANU/PNU) MP Maison Leshoomo from Samburu North who was accused of using connections to Internal Security to trigger insecurity & drive away Turkanas from Baragoi (Samburu North) just during the voter registration period. Thousands of Turkanas are still fleeing Baragoi during this ongoing military operation.

        IEBC (forget ODM) should ensure all eligible and innocent Turkanas displaced by security operations are registered to vote. The bunch of criminals who killed cops should be apprehended – that’s a different matter – but not at the expense of thousands of innocent citizens who had nothing to do with the cattle rustling or cop murders!!!

        (b) a similar picture shows stark and disproportionately low rates in constituencies around Garissa – yet the latter should be a population hub within sparse NEP.

        % of registered voters per Nov. 26th:

        Garissa Town 12.1% (in an urban setting?????)
        Balambala 11.2%
        Fafi 9.8%
        Ijara 9.3%
        Lagdera 6.7%
        Dadaab 6.5%

        Hellooooo!!!! The only places in Kenya where % registration was hovering around 10% are areas where military operations are ongoing. It is understandable if the huge and sparse Lagdera is registering at a slow pace…people live in far flung abodes…but Garissa town???? an urban enclave…to register only 12% of its few eligible voters in the first place…. This is definitely linked to ongoing security operations.

        Coincidentally or not, even Mt. Elgon constituency (location of a brutal military operation a few years ago) had registered only 11.8% by Nov. 26th; yet its neighbouring constituencies were recording double that rate around the 20%s.

        The so called Mombasa Republican Council “strongholds” at the coast (mainly Mijikenda upcountry) are also showing poor early registration %’s between 10% and 15%.

        **This must definitely have something to do with uniformed and gun-trotting paramilitary escorts of IEBC staff scaring away some potential voters**

        (7) It’s time to discuss these issues openly. The security (including provincial administration) should stop intimidating select Kenyan voters through the GSU and administrative police card. These scare and intimidation tactics must be thoroughly investigated…to stop this upuzi of red-eyed, camouflage adorning GSU and administration police wielding AK 47 guns and leashing huge German shepherd dogs around BVR machines in mashinani….with chiefs and kacheros suspiciously standing by…how the heck to they think ordinary young men in areas already labeled as MRC strongholds will come forward anywhere near a BVR machine?

        This is voter suppression tactics that must be articulated loudly and publicly by ODM.

        (8) ODM must call upon and reassure scared wananchi in such areas (Coast, Turkana, Samburu, North Eastern) to turn up and vote. ODM national leaders should stop sitting on their palms complaining…they should go to these mashinanis and show their presence all day long…standing aside as scared wananchi register…symbolically assuring registrants of safety. These are what are called voter registration drives.

        Michelle Obama did a lot of them in the areas known for voter suppression (Ohio, Florida, Virginia etc)…where the heck are wakina Ida Odinga…they should be in Kwale, Kilifi, Garissa supporting symbolic registration turnout drives…not trotting around Malaysia and such during this crucial period. Where is the secretariat and the fora????? what about ODM youth and Namwamba’s crew??? {Namwamba’s Budalangi was off to a good start at 26% by Nov. 26th.} These are the important ground games to be banked upon in future…voter registration drives.

        (9) Last is the fact that the former Western province is not showing apathy towards voter registration anymore. Traditionally, voter apathy has been recorded in Ukambani and the former Western…but the case seems to be reversing this time among the good folk of Mulembe. I will not be surprised they register more than Kales…especially given that Ruto will now not be on the presidential ballot. Actual voter turnout IS a different matter altogether…

        More baadaye!!!!

        unedited

      • DC,
        The moment more than 70% of eligible voters are unable to vote then we shall have failed as a nation.

        The failure to register is partly due to the casual way the IEBC has treated the matter. They have never been in a hurry to do anything. And the moment the registration started, the so called BVR kits have proved to be ineffective. No one likes standing in a queue from morning to evening to register as a voter. My suggestion is that the government gives Kenyans a two days holiday to register as voters. Alternatively the new registration should be abandoned all together and let Kenyans do it the old way. The BVR kits wont get rotten.

        The best scenario would be to combine the two. I suggest that people vote the old way (i.e. the way it has always been done) then all their details be taken by the help of BVR kits after voting at the polling station. In this way, the IEBC will capture all who have voted and use the register in the next elections. Besides, this will eliminate double voting (if the kits function the way they should). As things stand, only 30-40% will register to vote. The rest will be left in the cold.

        I don’t trust the IEBC anymore for even the numbers they are putting out there might be all fake and misleading mostly because they don’t have a clue. So let’s not take their numbers as gospel truth. These are people who could be easily manipulated by the Kibaki/Uhuru axis to do a Kivuitu on us again. The kind of money Uhuru is pouring out there is mind boggling. People have gained immensely from the Uhuru kitty. People like Kuttuny who were mere paupers just yesterday can today contribute a cool one million shillings to the Ruto campaign. How does one make that kind of money is such a short time? I can promise you that he is walking near the Uhuru/Kibaki money volt.

        So what should ODM do? How can they counter the Uhuruto mad train hurtling towards the state house without proper drivers or breaks? All I know the Uhuruto train will derail at high speed and when that happens we all know the results.

        It has become clear to me that these elections can be handily won by ODM. But as you have all said above, it all rests on the number of voters ODM can help register in their strongholds. The numbers tnk listed above do not suffice to win elections especially if the win has to be large enough as to leave any doubt. We know for sure the ODM and TNA/URP will go to round two. It’s in the second round that the numbers we are talking about will matter the most. So it’s time for the party to figure out how to go about this matter, it can and must be done. ODM is already a mass movement, its needs people on the ground to fire people up to register in huge numbers. Ruto and Uhuru are already in the process of firing up their bases but they seem to be struggling too given the numbers that are registering (if the IEBC numbers are anything to go by).

        The government should seriously think about extending the voters registration deadline.

    • so as of yesterday (deadline for political pacts) we now have

      1. the UhuRuto Alliance + Mudavadi – TNA / URP / UDF

      2. CORD – ODM / Wiper / NARC / Ford-K / TIP / Muungano / PIP / CCU / UDM / KSC / Agano / PDP

      3. Starehe Boys Team – KNC / POA

      4. Pambazuko – New Ford-K / FPK / NVP / Shirikisho?

      We assume here all others are going it alone

      This is going to be very interesting especially on the strategy that will be used for the different elective posts other than the president/deputy. With a collaborative strategy, CORD can sweep a number of these posts if they support each other and select the strongest candidates among them per post.

      interesting times ahead

      sigh!!! once upon a time, a looong long time ago in a country very very far away, there was KKK G7, and then just like that it became ICC-2 + plan B, …. the end ….

  3. so if i get this right
    the original G7 has become the ICC 2 with an option of plan B (a coalition of WDM and UDF)

    and now we have this alternate group

    and we still have the starehe boys group of tuju and kenneth yet to come

    then we have martha karua lone ranger ) i think karua will not even get elected as the TNA wave will crush her

    interesting

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