THE MARCH 2013 TWO-HORSE RACE

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As they say, the devil lies in the details. Of the two major pre-election coalition deals deposited to the office of the Registrar of Political Parties on Tuesday 4th December (deadline set by IEBC), anecdotal word already suggests that the C.O.R.D deal was a thoroughly debated and more practical pact.  It was painstakingly crafted through a number of weeks by lawyers like ODM’s James Orengo, Wiper’s Mutula Kilonzo, and Ford’s Moses Wetangula, ultimately bringing together parties like  ODM, Wiper, Ford-K, Narc, TIP, UDM, PDP, CCM, Agano and others. It is said to be both legally and politically sound – with the caveat that …do not rule out political chicanery from some turnaround politicians.

On the other hand, UDF, URP, and TNA’s reactive pact was an afterthought last-minute deal, quickly cobbled at the Grand Laico Hotel within a couple of hours of IEBC’s deadline. With the stroke of a pen, it nullified a much-touted earlier deal between TNA and URP unveiled yesterday at the Jeevanji Gardens. Without doubt, there are very many uneasy people earlier promised positions and perks in the previous Jeevanji deal who are already reassessing their positions in the new food-pyramid.

It is also this latter deal that raises important questions about the possible concessions that ultimately swayed UDF’s Musalia Mudavadi into this ICC-besieged political partnership. It goes without say there was a sense of desperation on the URP/TNA team upon the unveiling of the formidable and politically-intimidating C.O.R.D, which for the first time, brought together the Ukambani leadership into one political basket. Such signs are definitely what triggered the frenzied outreach to Musalia Mudavadi.

Rushed deals are often fraught with minefields. Reports indicate that Musalia was promised from an array of lucrative positions predicated on a joint primary between himself and TNA’s Uhuru Kenyatta. In the deal, Ruto was guaranteed the running mate spot, bar for a court ruling prohibiting the latter’s run. Were Musalia to beat Uhuru Kenyatta in a joint TNA/URP/UDF primary nomination, Mudavadi would be guaranteed the Presidential ticket with Ruto as running mate.

If Musalia lost to Uhuru, the former would then mount a Senate bid and go for the position of Senate majority leader should their coalition win. The final possible permutation in the last-minute deal was based on possible court sanctions barring Uhuru (& possibly Ruto) from running for public office. In that case, the deal declared Mudavadi as the fallback automatic Presidential candidate, with Sally Kosgey negotiated as possible running mate.

Out side the box, the implication for the general election is a number of interesting scenarios pitting two horses from either of C.O.R.D and TNA/URP/UDF; with Nacr-K’s Martha Karua or KNC’s Peter Kenneth lingering as important wildcards should Uhuru Kenyatta’s name miss from the ballot.

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Possible scenarios of the two horse race – with the wildcards listed where applicable:

1. Raila-Kalonzo (CORD) v Uhuru-Ruto (TNA/URP/UDF) ….very likely (Musalia’s impact – NIL)

2. Raila-Kalonzo (CORD) v Mudavadi-Ruto (TNA/URP/UDF) v Karua or Kenneth (Narc-K or KNC) wildcard…possible (Kikuyu vote tenuous)

3. Raila-Kalonzo (CORD) v Mudavadi-Sally Kosgei (TNA/URP/UDF) v Karua or Kenneth (Narc-K or KNC) in case courts bar Uhuru and Ruto (ditto)

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Be your own judge as to the prospects of each of these competitors in scenarios such as (but not limited to) these above. The ODM leadership must be sitting comfortably as they plan to mount a nationwide campaign in the emerging two-horse race. It is clear there is one coalition of reformers and another coalition of suspects; irrespective of who heads the TNA/URP/UDF ticket. The dice has been cast and the labels sealed. Uhuru, Mudavadi, and Ruto are a trio that entered politics barely in their twenties, growing up under the Nyayo era and vigorously opposing reforms.

It may not also be immediately clear where New Ford-Kenya’s Eugene Wamalwa and KADDU’s Cyrus Jirongo have ended up but without say, Wamalwa feels terribly used and humiliated by the TNA/URP/UDF coalition. The political implications in the larger Bungoma and Trans Nzoia counties could only be guessed given the fact that Bukusu (comprising almost 40% of the Luhya population) consider themselves fairly independent of Mudavadi.

There are already signs of serious grumbling building also from Kenyatta-elites who instead preferred that the Deputy Prime Minister enter a deal with Eugene Wamalwa rather than Musalia Mudavadi. Their main reason is that Musalia is surrounded by a bunch of forceful and eloquent populists led by Ikolomani MP Bonny Khalwale – the most ardent promoter of a Mudavadi presidency outside Vihiga. They have studied well how Khalwale handled corruption allegations of former Finance Minister Amos Kimunya in and out of Parliament.

Kenyatta handlers fear that should Mudavadi become President, Khalwale would automatically become a powerful insider. The Kenyatta elite fear that Khalwale and his ilk would most definitely mobilize for the populist cooperation with the ICC; jeopardizing Kenyatta’s ultimate freedom and security of his wealth from ICC’s Victims Trust Fund (which compensates victims of crimes against humanity). They also argue that this group’s stance on matters such as land reforms is a mirror image of that held by ODM’s leadership.

The next 72 hours will prove quite interesting as more breaking-news continue trickling in this fast-evolving political terrain. One thing is clear right now. W ithout the new Constitution, Kenyans would by now still be wallowing in complete darkness – the type the likes of Kibaki love to lull masses into. Besides mandates and deadlines for pre-election coalitions, watch out for more elements of the new Constitution kicking in…ain’t it interesting.

unedited.

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78 comments on “THE MARCH 2013 TWO-HORSE RACE

  1. Ford People finally joins CORD alliance making Kisii a CORD country from up to down.

    “It is clear people are set to support the Premier this time round and as leaders we can’t just sit on the fence but lead from the front,” Okioma, who has named Engineer Makori Bikundo his running mate, said”

    The wind of change is blowing harder and harder in Gusiiland.

    http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000076089&story_title=Kenya-Ford-P-candidates-vow-to-support-Raila

  2. After talking with a former classmate of mine living in Kisii I can now officially confirm that the Jubilee gang was literally left speechless and I mean speechless by the reception of the people of Kisii. At every rally they were told off and Ongeri threatened with a thorough beating if he brings the gang back to the area.

    Well NTV has decided to cut off sound to this embarrassing incident when the Coalition of the accused visited Kisii in the campaign trial. But just have a look at the faces in the video to see what I mean. Akina Uhuru, the fast talking Shebesh, Sonko and Ruto could only watch is disbelief as the town turned against them with the chants of CORD! CORD!

    • The shock and disbelieve was well captured by the NTV camera man in this 1 minute video. Some rallies were poorly attended despite massive mobilization effort, in other rallies speakers where heckled; Prof Ongeri, William Ruto and Omondi Odinga were the major causalities.

      Of interest was the rumour that Makadara MP Mike Sonko was to splash cash to the crowds from one of the three choppers, the rumour was a blessing and indeed a game changer that pulled crowds to the otherwise ignored rallies, many abandoned their activities in the farms with the hope of picking a 1000 shillings note

      At some point the three choppers landed at the same time creating a huge attraction and ofcourse talk of the day in the usually quiet villages. In another rally a section of the crowd were loudly asking for bribes from the leaders an indication that indeed they had been promised cash

      The heckling and shouting down of leaders happened when angry youths started singing songs in praise of CORD Presidential flag bearer Prime Minister Raila Odinga.

      Omondi Odinga did not help matters when he asked the crowd to shout loud enough “to scare ODM out of Gusii region”, Omondi had been invited by United Republican Party (URP) leader William Ruto to address the crowd. Any leader who mentioned Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s name was heckled by the youth who demanded to hear policies or be paid to listen to any criticism directed at the CORD leader.

      Education Minister Prof Sam Ongeri and Eldoret North MP William Ruto were among those who had to cut short their speeches as they insisted on explaining issues by reference to Odinga to which the crowds could not withstand.
      Confident and often cheerful nominated MP Rachel Shebesh, Mike Sonko and their Gachoka counterpart Mutava Musyimi expressed outright shock on their faces as things unfolded.

      From the events in Kisii, it is clear that even the 25% constitution threshold vote count at county level is not achievable in the two Gusii counties by Jubilee alliance, CORD seem to enjoy massive support even before it unveils campaigns in the region
      http://www.kenya-today.com/politics/video-jubilee-team-shocked-unexpected-cold-reception-in-kisii

  3. After Muda, now Wamalwa is in trouble!

    Pambazuka coalition collapses after three parties pull out

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    Vision Party of Kenya vice chairperson Benta Opande (right) and Peter Safari of Federal Party of Kenya (left) during a news conference in Nairobi December 29, 2012. The officials announced their parties have pulled out of the Pambazuka coalition. ANTHONY OMUYA

    The Pambazuka coalition has collapsed barely a month after it was formed.

    Three of the four political parties that formed the alliance announced Saturday that the partnership had been dissolved due to irreconcilable differences.

    Top officials of the Vision Party of Kenya, Federal Party of Kenya and Shirikisho Party accused New Ford Kenya of reneging on coalition ideals.

    Specifically, they accused Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa of New Ford Kenya of flirting with other political outfits without consulting them.

    “In the last two weeks, Kenyans have watched as New Ford Kenya and its leadership led by Hon Eugene Wamalwa engage in disgraceful political summersaults while pretending to speak for the Pambazuka Movement,” said Benta Opande, the Vision Party of Kenya vice chairperson.

    “This kind of political prostitution is unacceptable to those who founded the Pambazuka Coalition hoping it can provide a middle ground ahead of the 2013 General Election.”

    She was flanked by Peter Shehe of the Federal Party of Kenya and Abdulaziz Wandati of Shirikisho party.

    Ms Opande revealed that all attempts to get New Ford Kenya to “change this juvenile and non-serious approach to national politics” had failed.

    “We are left with no alternative but to officially disassociate ourselves from Pambazuka which is quickly being turned into a national joke,” she said.

    “We therefore announcing that the partnership between The Federal Party of Kenya, New Ford Kenya, Vision Party of Kenya and Shirikisho Party as the Pambazuka Coalition is no more.

    “This partnership was terminated on December 29 when the Federal Party, Vision Party and Shirikisho Party officially informed the Registrar of Political Parties of their decision to pull out of the Alliance. The same was communicated in writing by officials of the three parties and received by the Registrar,” she said.

    She said that the parties that make up the alliance will now have to decide which presidential candidates to support.

    “They will now be required to hold their respective National Delegates Conference to chart their way forward and endorse their preferred presidential candidates.”

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Pambazuka-coalition-collapses/-/1064/1653884/-/4mg7jtz/-/index.html

    • exactly as expected

      political neophytes trying to wade in the deep ocean or big league.

      this is the hallmark of all G7 leaders and supporters, deception, deception, confusion, chaos.

      cannot stick to any credible plan and are forever conjuring up new agreements and tricks

      wamalwa is now persona non grata to any political outfit especially any coalition because he simply is untrustworthy (of course joining and fitting in very well with the other guy who dishonors a devil’s written and signed agreement)

      mzee hehehe we can now scratch Pambazuko from our projections

      am just surprised that it has taken this long for people to see through wamalwa’s shenanigans

      but all the same am finally happy that it is out there for all to see. wamalwa has one and only one plan, play errand boy for uhuru kenyatta. which includes scuttling any regional parties or coalitions. what a fraud. and of course with this revelation, his usefulness is quickly coming to an end and therefore like used gum or sugarcane …… coming soon to a trash can near you ……

      • Exactly! Eugene Wamalwa is Uhuru Kenyatta’s gun for hire in the latter’s divide-and-rule tactic.

        He is the knife through which Abaluhya vote is being sliced and diced to the advantage of Uhuru and Ruto. Bure kabisa this cheap sell-out!

      • wow, at least musalia has some hope for recovery in that his is termed as naivety and betrayal, wamalwa is just being called “juvenile” by his partners. shucks. president wannabe juvenile, fits his image well. they did say they are young. ….

    • With the dissolution of Pambazuka due to Wamalwa’s behaviour, I suspect that Wamalwa has also put at risk the life and reputation of the Eagles Coalition of which he is now supposedly a member according to him and PK!

      As such I see either Wamalwa being kicked out of the Eagles Alliance or that the Eagles Coalition might just be the next one to dissolve itself!

      But realistically, I see PK and Tuju remaining together and showing Wamalwa the door. Otherwise, with Wamalwa around, PK cannot sell himself as the realistic alternative anymore. Dead on arrival in that particular case!

      • When Raila told them this is going to be a two horse race with a few pundas waddling along they laughed at him. But here it is. This idea of alliances after Dec. 4, 2012 is just plain bullshit. The law doesn’t allow it.

        And then you have the likes of Wamalwa walking and crawling at the same time with no clue what to do next. That is your minister of justice and constitutional affairs. Don’t ask him what that means. Please. So there they go. Mudavadi is now going to be the UDF candidate. Exactly as we thought. That is the famous bridge to nowhere. It is not very marketable.

        Now we are going to face the nomination Tsunami in the republic. Oh dear. It is going to be bad. But so what. It has to be done. These people(politicians) do things the only way they know and it is always not the smartest way to do anything. That is a longer discussion.

        I think here in this forum (DC you folks call it) we may start a NEW YEAR open workshop of ideas and initiatives on how our political parties should behave before and after the elections. I think we have a ton of ideas on how this nomination process should be handled by CORD, which is the alliance I personally support. Let’s bring it all to the table.

        HAPPY NEW YEAR everyone.

      • DC,
        We now have it in print and from the horse’s mouth the Pambazuko is no more. The fact the Pambazuko is no more leaves Eugene Wamalwa with no place to call home. He cannot pretend to be part of the Eagle alliance because Tuju and Kenneth have already deposited their agreement with the registrar of political parties. He can join them as a “support act” and nothing more. But even the little support he would have provided them has vanished with his flip flop. He has two other options left i.e. officially join Jubilee or UDF. In both cases he will still end up as a supporting act. This seems to be the end of the road for him. It does not matter where he heads now; he is already a laughing stock, none will take him seriously. I doubt if he can do any serious damage to t CORDS. If CORD puts its act together to the end, they could even overrun Wamalwa.

        The only person CORDS how to work on overtime is Musalia Mudavadi who is hell bent on being a spoiler in and around Kakamega area. The man does not care what happens, he is pissed that Uhuru peed on him. He will run even if that means coming fifth in the first round, obviously with the hope of building a name for 2017. What he is forgetting is that he won’t be attractive in 2017 as no one from the SH will be backing him. From what I heard from people of the ground, CORD could even beat him in Kakamega County where he claims popularity the rest of Western province seems to be out of reach for Mudavadi at the moment.

        CORD has offered him a lifeline but being weak and slow he is he has refused to take it, yet. Sooner rather than later all the pleading from other political groupings will stop. That’s when he will find himself sitting between a rock and a hard place. Akina Salat and Gideon Moi who are urging him on have no clout in the former RVP and will be whitewashed by URP and ODM wave. Obviously Mudavadi will get some crumbs here and there but not enough to make any impact on the national scene.

        The problem with Mudavadi is expecting free things. Moi picked him from the University of Nairobi and gave him a free ride to parliament. KANU was behind him in every election thereafter. The moment the party lost grip he fell flat on his face (2002). Then Raila picked him up and pushed the people of Sabatia to elect him and they did. Even when the ODM house was burning after the election theft in 2007/8 he remained silent and rarely raised a finger. One would have thought that Ruto was the number two in ODM during that crisis. Then come 2012 and he realized that Raila was not going to tosha him, he looked towards the state house for another free ride. Just like in the temptation of Jesus, he was taken up in helicopters and shown Kenya. The devil promised that all he was seeing would be his if he worshipped him (devil). Unlike Jesus he fell for the lie. When the devils buddies realized what was happening, he was disowned. They could not fathom giving him free goodies. Now he is on the ground throwing all manner of tantrums asking why he was not given a free ride. Mudavadi should understand that in today’s politics there are no free goodies.

        Its obviously a two horse race.

  4. there is a very strong under-current rapidly gaining traction that uhuru is handing this thing over to mudavadi. am not sure who has prevailed on him or what is informing this decision, but it appears to be taking root in central

      • mzee

        i hear you. for sure i know the fear that the 40 mps expressed was real, that without uhuru on that ticket, its going to be uphill for them. put this way if uhuru is not on the ticket then even if he campaigns it wont have as much weight. thus diminishing their own campaigns and to this you have to add ruto’s fortunes or woes in central minus uhuru

        lets wait and see what happens tuesday. somehow i get the impression on account of so much confusion that this is not going to take place.

        logistically, i think URP and TNA can mobilise their delegates with a 6 hour (half a day) notice but UDF on the other hand I think requires at least 2 or 3 days.

        add to that the uncertainty of whether you have bona fide delegates or not and it starts to get complex because loyalties can start to change real easy. and then most of these delegates will want some allowances and it really starts to stink

        the only way for this to work without acrimony is a boardroom deal, otherwise except a lot of resentment, chaos and logistical issues. because genuine delegates are not world class briefcase toting businessmen. they are mostly simple down to earth citizens and a good number of them will not come to rubber stamp fixed positions

        anyway, tuesday is just a heartbeat away, lets wait and see

    • Tnk,

      Like Mzee explains, it’s called the lull before the perfect storm. Musalia is indeed being set up for the sucker punch. He is being soothed that it’s not a tribal thing after all….with the cunning justification that many Kikuyus are supporting his bid against Kenyatta.

      Swing your eyes momentarily away from the choreographed activities in the ground, to the more crucial developments behind the closed doors (of 5-star hotel board-rooms).

      Here is what the boardroom has prepared for Muda come Tuesday:
      Jubilee nomination delegates:

      Uhuru’s TNA = 282 + 1998 = 2,280 (45%)
      Musalia’s UDF = 282 + 1085 = 1,367 (27%)
      Ruto’s URP = 0 + 1,407 = 1,407 (28%)

      Uhuru walks into this contest with 45% delegates upfront…and only needs 5% from Ruto’s URP. Any keen eye will also observe the little detail that even Ruto’s URP (who is not in the contest) is coming in with more delegates than Musalia’s.

      But poor Musalia can’t complain too hard…they way he did while exiting ODM…so what does he do instead? He is begging that Jubilee drops this nomination contest altogether and agree by CONSENSUS! That’s not a sign of someone being handed power on a silver platter; but that of a reluctant one who’s seen a glimpse of the upcoming slaughterhouse.

      Mudavadi’s panicked lot has thrown in a belated proposal calling for 1,500 delegates each from TNA, UDF, URP, and 500 delegates each from Ngilu’s Narc, and Balala’s party. Trouble is – that automatically becomes subject to a court challenge…since Ngilu/Narc are not signatories to Jubilee as per the Political Parties Act. Nominations based on such flawed processes become null and void.

      • JOB,
        Its looks to me that TNK is right after all. There will be no nominations using delegates. If there were to use delegates then we would have seen the said delegates being transported to Nairobi. Unless there is going to be a massive airlift it won’t happen.

        Mudavadi must have seen the figures that you have shown above and decided that it’s better to be humiliated in the boardroom than Kasarani with the whole country witnessing.

        The poor thing cannot even throw the tantrums the way he was doing in ODM. RAO gave the guy too much space and power. Uhuru has a knife on the man’s throat and any little movement causes lots of pain.

        Its humiliation Daniel arap Moi style. Talking about Moi history seems to be repeating itself.

      • job & others,

        The news from the belly of the lion is that it is going to be Mudavadi. The people who own the country(Kibaki and his hencmen) want him. Uhuru is apparently willing to sneak him in but with one assurance namely that his first job will be to pull Kenya out of the ICC. That seems to be the sticking point. Will he do it and can he manage the aftermath? If Kibaki can’t do it how will Mudavadi do it? That is the question.

        On the other hand there is also big pressure from M.Ps from Central to put Uhuru in. It is a tag of war right now with some of Uhuru’s friends telling him that Kibaki is setting him up. Mudavadi is willing to do the bidding and accept the terms but as whimpy as he is Uhuru and his buddies are very nervous. So things could go either way.

        The other issue is Ruto. Kibaki and his boys are willing to keep Ruto on the ticket to bring the votes but they know he will be replaced as a DPORK as the Hague thing explodes one way or the other. If the accused chaps are allowed to go awol after a pullout from the ICC Ruto quits the DPORK. If they go to the Hague, Ruto still quits the DPORK. So the Kibaki chaps are not worried about Ruto. Once Uhuru is out of the ticket he is a sitting duck. The question is how to keep him happy for now. We will see.

        How does this affect CORD? Hard to tell right now. With Mudavadi CORD has a tougher job than with Uhuru. That is now obvious. But Mudavadi has to thread a very complicated needle work. In any event Uhuru’s supporters may completely refuse the State House games. After the dust settles tomorrow we will go to work kama kawaida. But one thing is for sure. This Hague thing has completely changed the dynamics of Kenya politics. If Mudavadi thinks he can do what Kibaki couldn’t do he is playing with fire. Even Raila cannot save Uhuru. That is the bottom line and that is the good news. Mass killers will pay for their sins one way or the other.

      • Adongo,
        Thats fine with us in CORD. The issue is how to keep the kikuyu vote in the basket after the twist. Its going to be a hard sell. I wait to see how they go about it. This will be historic. Hague might just be the blessing Kenyans needed. But I cannot believe that Uhuru is out and Ruto is in. All roads might just to mbondo.

      • Adongo, Tnk, Mzee et al,

        That news from the lion’s belly indicates Jubilee is trying to avert imminent fallout. But the end result remains the same…fallout will indeed come…only this time from the TNA side. It will be a yielding harvest season for timers like Karua and Kenneth…you can take this to the bank.

        And as you say…Mudavadi cannot make any ICC promise because he can’t pull Kenya out of the ICC, period!

        If the lion’s belly is right, State House must have succeeded in pulling out BOTH Uhuru and Ruto from the race; Uhuru being forced out grudgingly, while Ruto being set up for a technical knock-out after delivering the Kalenjin votes. You can bet Chapter 6 of the Constitution will be invoked in Ruto’s case. Ruto will simply be told be can run but won’t be sworn in as Deputy President! Ata do? Remember Ruto has an additional local ongoing land case (Muteshi) coming up in February. It is easy to guess Mudavadi is being set up to appoint a Mt. Kenya Deputy/ in replacement for Ruto post-election.

        The good news is that these hypothetical situations above won’t happen as CORD will roll over the Mudavadi/Ruto ticket. Unlike many, I strongly maintain that Uhuru is a tougher candidate than Mudavadi. Watch this space!

      • the other thing i want to ask maybe someone has some clarity. its a little matter

        ok given the registrar of political parties is a conniving inept and partisan office. there is no doubt

        but what is the law?

        a while back the MPs passed in parliament legislation that allowed them to party hop or stay in their parties till January 15

        but here is the problem, these guys are going into an election/nomination process for another party or coalition as members of different parties than the ones in which they are in now. they are not going as independent candidates. they must have declared the parties in which they are in.

        to be nominated/elected they need to be members of their chosen parties at the time of the election/nomination. otherwise they commit fraud and someone should challenge that in law. uhuru is still KANU, mudavadi and ruto are still ODM, the only person clean is Ngilu who is still NARC and joins the coalition as NARC, assuming that she signed the dotted line in good time

        i think legally that these gentlemen cannot take part in the nominations/elections while still members of parties that they have allegedly quit. or put another way, unless they are REGISTERED members of the member parties they will be perpetuating fraud

        if they are registered members, they cannot simultaneously be members of other parties (another fraud) and should have by now relinquished they parliamentary seats and priviledges.

        its a small matter but their must be some fidelity to the law, am not sure what the law was/is but am sure if these guys don’t follow the law in the nominations, someone will take them to court for fraudulently electing officials thus making them ineligible for any other office

        i think its time these guys start paying attention to details. but again i could be wrong. will look up what the extension specifically stated

      • job & others,

        The tag of war from Uhuru inner circle is that Kibaki did not pull Kenya out of the ICC to save Uhuru and yet they are now promising that Mudavadi will do it. Kibaki’s people have in return told Uhuru that if Kibaki was to do that now Kenyans will be mad and Raila will win by a landslide. They are telling Uhuru it is better for Mudavadi to do it at the beginning of his term because he will have five years to deal with the aftermath.

        They have also told Uhuru that Raila will beat an Uhuru Ruto ticket. So they asked Uhuru if he would prefer to have Raila deal with his Hague issue or Mudavadi who may be willing to have a signed secret pact to pull Kenya out of the ICC.

        Of course behind all these is the fact that the cabal in power are terrified of a Raila presidency which will shake up the aristocracy and dismantle the oligarchy with its hold on land and the wealth of the nation. Uhuru right now is between a rock and a hard place. He is leaning towards giving it up to Mudavadi but he is also under acute pressure from his family and friends to run and not trust anybody else. What Uhuru and Ruto may not know is that in the big picture people like Kibaki may not mind sacrificing Uhuru and Ruto as long as they keep their hand in the cookie jar. So if they get Mudavadi in they are safe and whatever happens to Uhuru and Ruto is not their biggest worry. For now that is the hammer they are using on Uhuru.

        The fallout after all these is what is scary to everyone. First they don’t know if Uhuru can herd the Kikuyu vote to Mudavadi. There is fear that many Kikuyus will be scared that a weak Mudavadi will be Ruto’s puppet and they hate Ruto. The Kikuyu masses are not privy to the fact that Ruto is being kept only for the Kalenjin votes and after that he will be out and hopefullyy safe from the Hague courtesy of Mudavadi. It seems like Ruto is willing to do anything as long as he is not going to The Hague. That is why Ruto is willing to accept the deal to have Mudavadi take the ticket. These guys are concerned about one and only one thing, The Hague. It has scared the shit out of them. All that tough talk is nonsense. Inside the boys are tetemekaring vibaya sana and Muthaura is comatose somewhere. They don’t want to meet Bensouda.

        As it is CORD is preparing for Mudavadi as a project for impunity. We are going to meet him in the field. Things may change though because boardroom civil war is intense as we speak. Forget all these media statements and joint rallies. The war is inside and people are not sleeping. CORD folks are not sleeping either. Stay tuned.

      • well went ahead and looked at the Political Parties Act 14.(4) states

        (4) A person shall not be a member of more than one political party at the same time.

        3 (2)

        (2) A citizen of Kenya who has attained the age of eighteen years may, subject to the provisions of this Act and any other written law, contest for AN ELECTIVE POSITION IN A POLITICAL PARTY IN WHICH HE IS A MEMBER.

        and the elections amendment bill allowing for party hoping simply extends the deadline as to when they resign from their current parties from Dec to Jan

        http://www.kenyalaw.org/klr/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/AmendmentActs/2012/The_Elections__Amendment__Act__2012.PDF

        as well as reduce the number of months they can be in their new parties,

        http://www.kenyalaw.org/klr/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/AmendmentActs/2012/The_Elections__Amendment__No.2__Act__2012.PDF

        but as long as they are not members of their new parties they cannot participate in the elections/nominations. and we know that they cannot be members of two parties. so the fact of the matter is that these amigos are not members of their new parties, and if they are, then according to the political parties act, they should already have tendered their resignations to the RPP. if not, then they cannot take part in the nominations/elections

        we need to hear the real deal on the party membership status of the three gents

        as with all thieves, conmen and liars, these guys will find some way to wiggle out of this with more deception abetted by the RPP, but fact is this is fraud and someone needs to take this to court if these guys participate in nominations/elections/selection of jubilee while they have not yet tendered their resignations from the sponsor parties, and shown proof of being registered in their new parties.

        also see

        http://www.kenyalaw.org/klr/fileadmin/pdfdownloads/Acts/ElectionsAct_No24of2011.pdf

        ==
        27. Submission of party nomination rules
        A political party shall submit its nomination rules to the Commission at least three months before the nomination of its candidates. [Act No. 12 of 2012, Sch.]
        28. Submission of party membership lists A political party that nominates a person for any election under this Act shall submit to the Commission a party membership list of the party at least two months before the date of the general elections.

        29 (1) The persons who nominate a presidential, parliamentary, county governor and county assembly candidate shall be registered members of the candidate’s political party .

        31 (1) A person qualifies to be nominated by a political party for presidential, parliamentary and county elections for the purposes of Articles 97, 98, 137, 177 and 180 of the Constitution if that person—
        (a) is selected in the manner provided for in the constitution or rules of the political party concerned relating to members of that party who wish to contest presidential, parliamentary and county elections ;
        ==

        although the deadlines for 27 and 28 were reduced by 30 days, but this does not change the fact that only registered members of a party can take part in a party’s nomination and election.

        so the duale’s kuttuny, uhuru et al can only take part in these nominations if they are registered members of the jubilee coalition (URP, TNA, UDF)

        if they are registered members of these parties, then they should have already relinquished their positions which include DPM, and MP for their respective constituencies

        otherwise as ai say for the umpteenth time, they continue to perpetuate a fraud

      • Update:

        The Uhuru inner circle are rejecting the Mudavadi deal. Uhuru has accepted it but his crew has said NO. Mudavadi, the man who used all sorts of excuses to be smuggled out of ODM is scared of any form of elections for the nomination. He thinks even if Uhuru tells his delegates to vote for him(Mudavadi) they may refuse. Mudavadi wants Uhuru to “tosha” him. Don’t laugh.

        In the end, all this headspin may end with an Uhuruto ticket for Juibilee crew but the Kibaki boys are determined to make sure it doesn’t happen. There is utter chaos in the so called Jubilee Coalition. Everything is falling apart. Stay tuned. Tuko hapa hapa. We are watching this very closely. I will give every update as soon as I get it.

      • in case we missed this

        ==
        Meanwhile, the Jubilee team held its first joint rally in Malava, Kakamega, on Saturday but another one planned for Murang’a on Sunday was cancelled at the eleventh hour.

        Cold reception

        Mr Mbiuki claimed the rally was called off after Mr Kenyatta was allegedly given a cold reception in Malava.

        “We received some cold reception in Malava. When we come to your backyard and we are accorded unwelcoming reception then why should we bring you to our place. So we said that it is important to deal with the nominations first before anything else,” Mr Mbiuki said.
        ==

        http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Jubilee-in-last-ditch-push-for-ticket-deal/-/1064/1645494/-/j5kcac/-/index.html

        what a bunch of juveniles

      • Meanwhile, Mudavadi refuses to go for Ngilus home coming party until Uhurus agrees to the “consensus” deal. WOW!!

      • Date for hanging postponed.

        Jubilee postpones meeting to pick presidential candidate

        The Jubilee coalition on Monday postponed its delegates conference to name a presidential candidate as divisions rocked the alliance, threatening to end the union of three parties.

        The coalition’s leaders Uhuru Kenyatta (URP), Musalia Mudavadi (UDF) and William Ruto (URP) met for more than 12 hours — nine hours on Sunday night and three hours Monday morning—seeking to find a common ground on presidential nominations.

        The three were not helped by TNA and UDF hardliners, the former pushing for a delegates conference and the later insisting on a consensus a system to nominate a flag bearer.

        The extent of the confusion was magnified by the presence of TNA delegates in Nairobi and preparations for the convention at the Moi International Stadium, Kasarani for the Jubilee coalition big day.

        “We have postponed the delegates conference to 24th to give room to our party leaders to talk to consult their members over the decisions that were reached. By Friday, we should have complete lists of delegates to participate in the conference,” said URP spokesman Aden Duale.

        The Dujis MP refuted reports suggesting that Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto had fallen out with Mr Mudavadi with TNA and URP leaders set to revert to their initial coalition agreement.

        He also clarified that the conference had been postponed, not cancelled.

        “It is still on. Between today and then, the three leaders will go back to their parties to explain to them the decisions that have been reached,” he said without elaborating.

        http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/-/1064/1645904/-/ah995s/-/index.html


    • http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/-/1064/1645904/-/ah995s/-/index.html

      The coalition’s leaders Uhuru Kenyatta (URP), Musalia Mudavadi (UDF) and William Ruto (URP) met for more than 12 hours — nine hours on Sunday night and three hours Monday morning—seeking to find a common ground on presidential nominations.

      “We have postponed the delegates conference to 24th to give room to our party leaders to talk to consult their members over the decisions that were reached. By Friday, we should have complete lists of delegates to participate in the conference,” said URP spokesman Aden Duale.

      The proverbial hyena has reached the road’s bifurcation, straddling feet on both diverging roads. It will soon split right in the middle. The Jubilee lot keeps kicking the can down the road as more confusion reigns, merely postponing inevitable fallout.

      Either way it goes, fallout ensues. If Mudavadi-Ruto get it, defection (to Karua/Kenneth) and apathy (in the IDP belt of former Rift Valley) ensues. If Kenyatta-Ruto get it, the former Western migrates in mass to CORD. Let them bring it on – whichever combination!

      What is now obvious is the mortal fear and insecurities inherent within this Jubilee alliance. Their frenzied panic on Dec 4th when ODM and Wiper unveiled CORD at KICC (which sent them scampering to Mudavadi’s house) is still manifesting today. Mudavadi is cleverly trying to milk that fear.

      Something to watch closely is whether Jubilee breaks its own nomination rules deposited to the Registrar of PP. Their rules clearly stipulated picking a flag-bearer within 14 days of Dec 4th = Dec 18th, 2012. To avert immediate fallout Uhuruto are so terrified that CORD’s Saturday rally at Uhuru Park may harvest defectors from their nomination fallout…they have decided to postpone the inevitable.

      Trouble is – such postponement may be illegal. Lucy Ndung’u (RPP) can’t help Jubilee to illegally change their own rules whose details are in the public domain; otherwise she is the one to face the law for serious charges. Jubilee can’t whimsically and blatantly flout their own nomination rules (deposited to the Registrar of Political Parties Office) and think they will get away legally. The era of impunity must be buried! The overtly partisan Lucy Ndung’u shouldn’t even be occupying that office after August, 2012 as per the new Constitution. She might just turn out to be this election cycle’s Kivuitu, and must be watched very closely lest she brews turmoil.

      This week we shall be knowing whether Mudavadi’s political prospects are buried or not. He is not easily giving in to the anointed…who is cleverly dragging this beyond CORD’s rally. Malipo ya usaliti ni hapa hapa…kwa saa hii!

      • Blimey! these guys failed to resolve the ‘stalemate’ after meeting for more than 12 hours? apart from the one and only item on the agenda what were they talking about the rest of the time 🙂 🙂

      • Job

        great article

        at least we are now getting snippets of the twilight deal

        ==
        “On December 4, Uhuru came to Riverside (Mudavadi’s home) and pleaded with him to join Jubilee with the promise he would step down for him. That’s simply what our position remains,” a UDF MP revealed on condition this was off the record
        ==

        hehehehe

        of course i have a number of questions

        top of the list, was that promise in writing? if yes, why not pull it out? if not, what were you signing “pwana”?

        next qtn, these two guys left their bodyguards (read, “risked” their personal comforts including security detail) drove to your house with documents to sign. i would think the document contained a blue print of power sharing, nomination process, etc, why arent you three referencing this document, or no….. don’t tell me…. it had lots of blank pages (figuratively speaking) to be filled later, just a dotted line…. where you were to put a thumb print.

        hehehe wasn’t mwana mberi warned about signed MOUs with this crowd?

        now where have i heard “if the deal is too good to be true,… ”

        or better yet

        “it looks good from far, but is far from good”

        face it phandom, you were conned ….. again ……!

        its back to the table, the pieces of gold in a bag you thought you were holding are pieces of lead. you cant buy anything with them. you cant give them back, you cant throw them away. you cant keep them.

        and then here comes Dec 24 ….er…. merry christmas …. or is it haha … melee christmas 🙂

  5. .

    Meanwhile I’m told KASS FM was abuzz with concerned callers from the grassroots asking FUNDAMENTAL questions regarding this budding TNA/URP/UDF coalition. Folks are like – what the heck is happening? One asked about rumours doing rounds that Musalia will replace Uhuru with another unnamed person replacing Ruto.

    Another curious questioner practically asked what happens to Ruto’s promise of 50% public appointments now that Musalia made a belated entry into the Jeevanji coalition.
    .

    Within 48 hours, Ruto’s charm offensive at Eldoret and Kapkatet about “11 out of 22 Ministers, 50% Ambassadors and 50% parastatal heads” has been reduced to “6 Ministers, and 33% of public appointments” and the mashinani folks are beginning to see the joke of trying to ignore the new Constitution’s clear stipulations of processes of making public appointments {vetting, integrity requirements, gender balance, regional balance et al}.
    .

    The outrageous if not silly promise by Ruto to Kalenjin elders that his URP would get 50% of all cabinet and public appointments has been exposed by UDF’s belated entry. The impunity and total disregard by this coalition (of suspects) of the new Constitution’s requirements for public appointments reeks the dark ages of the Nyayo era! Either these folks are already exhibiting (without batting eyelids), how they can whimsically dismantle (or ignore) the Constitution without notice or they are barefaced liars who can con elders into supporting their devious plans to nowhere. The ever reckless and cantankerous Ruto has swirled his community through a dizzying whirlwind of uncertainty – having submitted himself fully to a game being remote-controlled from State House…a game in which he has little sway ultimately.

    For the record, here is part of what Ruto promised Kalenjin elders at Eldoret and Kapkatet:

    That URP was going to get:

    • Deputy Presidency (reserved for Ruto)
    • Leader of Majority in Parliament
    • Speaker of the Senate
    • Deputy Speaker of the National Assembly

    • Minister/Secretary of Finance and Planning
    • Minister/Secretary of Defence
    • Minister/Secretary of Home Affairs, Immigration and Registration of Persons

    • Minister/Secretary of Roads, Housing and Public Works
    • Minister/Secretary of Energy and Mineral Resources
    • Minister/Secretary of Water, Lands and Natural Resources

    • Minister/Secretary of Devolution
    • Minister/Secretary of Education
    • Minister/Secretary of Justice and Constitutional Affairs

    • And two other Ministries among 4 to be decided

    .
    In Ruto’s own words, he sold the snake oil claiming “URP ministries will be very powerful… The Finance ministry controls all spending while the expanded Ministry of Home Affairs, under the Office of the Deputy President, will control prisons, work permits, passports and identity cards”….so he bragged to bamboozled elders! All this is now coming into serious question within 48 hours; with talk that the ticket he was selling (Uhuru-Ruto) might in fact be altered at the whims of the project master at State House. Wacha tu!

    .

      • something tells me this guy’s silence will be purchased in cash before feb 2013 for the purposes of march 2013 and april 2013 and then payback will be somewhere in june


      • Just saw the link posted by Adongo in another thread, where Uhuru was throwing his weight around in Dubai.
        The TNA honcho Uhuru Kenyatta issued the statement with an authoritative tone indicating he is still intending to stand for president on March 4th, or at least that he would still consider it ‘his’ government even if Mudavadi ran.

        • Kenyatta, now banned from traveling to EU countries and the US (like Ruto), had to run to Dubai to hoodwink his supporters he could still travel “abroad” yet could not contain anger as reflected in his broadside WARNING to the international community.

        • Just like he lied to his community that it is Raila who took him to ICC, he is now setting up the same community (many holding citizenship in EU and America) to be at loggerheads with the same international community…for his own personal and selfish interests.

        • The ominous and stern statement about “not working with countries that interfere with our elections” indicates that even before the Jubilee Coalition presidential nomination, Uhuru Kenyatta is indeed its angry de facto leader. Despite all odds against him (including recent polls) he somehow irrationally feels entitled to the Presidency; as if in reward for his role in PEV.

        • It therefore confirms all we have always known – the bitter and angry Uhuru is the actual flag-bearer and BOSS of this Jubilee coalition come March 2013 polls.

        • The arrogant warning to the international community is a telltale sign of the recklessness if not suicidal manner in which such an administration can lead Kenya towards…something Kofi Annan already warned would guarantee painfully biting economic sanctions.

        • Uhuru and Ruto care little that FPE, and the HIV/TB/Malaria programs are hugely funded by the EU and US which he keeps abusing…after all none of their kids go to poor public schools or hospitals. Neither do they supply flowers, coffee, tea, or fruits to them nor rent premises to regional UN staffers in Nairobi. They know EU and US partners play big in Kenya’s tourism, industrial, agricultural, and financial sectors. They seem to care little that an EU based corporation recently struck oil in Kenya. Unlike millions of poor Kenyans, Uhuru and Ruto can respectively weather the storm of economic sanctions.

        • Like Ruto’s statement (below), the angry ICC duo also want Kenyans to forget about past injustices (land grabbing, mass murders-PEV etc) and merely play fool… Read the quotes below from Kenyatta and Ruto and be your own Judge:

        1) “There will be no time for a tug-of-war with the international community…as Kenyans will only work with nations of the world who… hold fast to the ideals of sovereignty …”

        2) “The international community is obligated…to respect whatever decision Kenyans make next year because they know Kenyans are well able to choose for themselves,” Uhuru said.

        3) “Anything short of that realization is a re-incarnation of colonialism. We are therefore confident that all who understand the principle of self-determination will never attempt[] to dictate the domestic affairs of other nations,” said Uhuru.

        4) “Let us move forward… leaving behind the old things. Let us not allow the past to weigh us down” said Uhuru.

        `
        Coming to his Siamese twin (in land-grabbing and PEV), the other ICC-accused William Ruto – he is also back to his element….which we earlier witnessed during his anti-Katiba campaigns during the referendum. Selling propaganda, distortions, and lying through the teeth.

        Fresh from his land-grabbing court case (Muteshi) yesterday, Ruto was in Narok scaring farmers that CORD wants to tax their farming land…when CORD’s manifesto only proposes to tax IDLE LAND such as the hundreds of thousands of acres of idle and bare land that he and Uhuru Kenyatta are sitting on. Here it is:

        http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Cord-has-no-agenda-for-Kenya-says-Ruto-/-/1064/1643732/-/uik4sy/-/index.html

        • “Our competitors have proposed to tax farmers land as a means to improve the economy, we in the jubilee coalition will reduce the prices of fertilisers, farm inputs to improve the economy.

        • “You can’t burden farmers while they are the ones who provide food to the country,” said Mr Ruto.

      • job,

        You are spot on.

        There is something about these rude and tactless Hague bound chaps that makes you want them to be on the ticket so they can get beat thoroughly and shut up forever. Politically they are very foolish. They have been able to mobilize considerable support but they are in an daze and really do not know what to do next. That is why they roped in Mudavadi and now they have no idea what to do with him.

        This is how foolish these boys are. As soon as the news about Uhuru and Ruto being barred from the US and EU countries comes out Uhuru rushes to Dubai eti to show he can still travel. That is just a sign of panic. He can go to Mogadishu from Dubai, round it off through Harare and see if we care. One rue in politics. Don’t ever show signs of panic. This one is running amok like a headless chicken. After all those trips to Burundi, Tanzania, Southern Sudan etc, nothing doing. The ICC Tick Tock keeps getting louder. Just yesterday the ICC appointed some three heavy duty advisors to Bensouda to handle the Kenyan cases. In other words come April 11, 2013 the case is on wapende wasipende.

        Secondly Uhuru turning this election into a war between Kenya and the West and making that his campaign theme is the height of political stupidity. If anything Uhuru should avoid that topic by all means. It is the huge gorilla around his neck. Kenyans will not go to war with the West to save Uhuru’s ass. If the West invaded Kenya to kill its citizens Kenyans will take any sacrifice to resist it.

        But for Uhuru to ask Kenyans to fight with the West for Uhuru’s personal survival he is dreaming. Uhuru needs to understand the Kenyan pysche. That is a big part of politics. Kenya’s socio-political infrastructure of political architecture is intertwined with the West. We are not Sudan by any stretch of imagination. There is a reason even jingoist pundits like Mutahi Ngunyi are desperate to have Uhuru hand over everything to Mudavadi. They know Uhuru’s war with the West is a losing ticket with no mitigating factors.

        Now coming to Ruto with his patented invention of lies we can see he is out to lunch. Even the comments from that article in the usually anti-Raila DN bloggers it is obvious Ruto is fooling nobody. Taxing idle land and taxing farmers land are two different things. Kenyans are not idiots. They see those thousands upon thousands of idle land most of it grabbed by the Rutos and their friends.

        This is a guy who had the audacity to grab 100 acre land from a person he IDPed right at the height of the PEV. If Ruto thinks CORD is going to be silent about those ugly facts he is mistaken. Land is going to be a big part of this election and CORD coming off the bat with land on top of their agenda is going to resonate very well with the masses and the landless.

      • Adongo and Job,
        This is a sign of desperation and the kicks of a dying horse.

        Uhuru Kenyatta and Ruto think that they can turn the country against the west the way the way some Arab countries were coerced by the leaders to in the past. Kenyans are just too smart for such stupidity. It won’t happen. The war with the west is one that they have to wage alone. After all they have a couple of billions for that purpose. As Kenyans we are not helping out.

        Many Kenyan business men and women have sensed that the purpose of the Hague crew wanting the presidency is to drive us towards a pariah state. The moment that happens, all trade with the west will stop. NGO´s that get funds from the west will cease to exist because no more funds will flow in. By the way, all those oil explorations will simply dry up.

        The Kenyan middle class understand this and they wont buy it.

      • Adongo,

        These fellas have not even secured the Jubilee nomination…yet the autocratic dictatorship has started…throwing warnings around to global superpowers!!!!

        Talk about despots who dream to keep the international community away from their civilian war fields….

        This is exactly what Omar al Bashir has done in Sudan…expelled all international NGOs so he can do as he pleases with the Sudanese masses…even if it means conducting genocide on some.

        Those who have read human history and politics know that authoritarians and despots usually act out of fear… their own fears, paranoia and insecurities drive them to seek power….and God forbid if they acquire power – they direct virtually all state resources towards their own protection. In the process, perceived enemies always end up harmed one way or another.

        Putting into power two such hotheads currently afraid of incarceration at the Hague would be suicidal…given both are accused of previously plotting mass murder of innocent citizens. Ruto reminds me of Mitt Romney..someone who could stand in front of a microphone and lie without blinking an eye…thinking it would confuse ‘ignorant’ masses.

        The trouble with this retrogressive style of politics is that the moment folks figure out the lie…you lose everything… Ruto is keen to obfuscate and distract any talk about land matters – a sensitive topic in his backyard..hence his jitter tactic…Taxing idle land has to be on the campaign table this time around…ODM couldn’t do this with Kibaki still at the helm…After 2013, without Kibaki (another land aristocrat), there would be no excuse that CORD could make…but to tax the godarn idle land grabbed by the Kenyattas and Rutos.

      • Job,
        This land issue is going to bite Ruto and Uhuru in the butt if they keep talking about it.

        Raila should not retract but explain what he means. That he is talking about thousands of hectares of idle land by Kenyatta and Ruto not the ordinary mwanainchis. Besides, ancestral land will not be touched.


      • Mzee,

        You are right. I’m sure during the campaigns the entire land reform agenda (per new Katiba) will be unveiled and broken down to the mashinani folks; right from implementation of the National Land Commission to espousing policies such as taxation of idle land.

        It will be important to explain how such policies would benefit wananchi directly. For instance how taxing idle land held by the Kenyattas will not only reduce the market price of land, but also allow access to ownership for millions more Kenyans. When such idle land is taxed annually, the grabbers find it expensive to maintain (for sheer speculation).

        They are thus likely to either develop it, or sell it. When many land aristocrats put their holdings into the market – supply and demand dynamics kick in – driving the price of land down. Land becomes affordable for middle class folks such as teachers, policemen, nurses and even jua kali folks. Once these people move into their holdings, they put it into proper economic use, helping to either address the food security situation…or add to the GDP via commercial farming (crop, citrus, dairy, etc). This also slows down unemployment and mass migration to cities and population hotspots.

        Another egalitarian ODM/CORD policy ( freshly unveiled in their manifesto) temporarily delinks land from financial capital. It puts a temporary moratorium on land being the principal guarantee for accessing loans until a clean land register is instituted. Existing and outdated policies have enabled the so called high potential areas whose land was demarcated and titled by Jomo Kenyatta in the 1960s and 70s to have undue access and monopoly to loans at the expense of areas deliberately marginalized – where land was institutionally devalued by state. Even fake titles from so called ‘high potential’ areas have secured big loans…merely because of location of land. On the other hand, in many areas at the Coast, Ukambani, Western, and Nyanza, land has not even been freakin’ demarcated for registration. There is no official register of such land, which is automatically considered worthless by financial institutions.

        The big question is – after 50 years of independence, why do millions of Kenyans in select areas still don’t have title deeds to their ancestral land; while others transact titles daily for revolving business loans? It has been politics stupid!!!!! Politics of marginalization and institutionalized inequities. This status quo has sadly persisted under Kibaki – himself a beneficiary of the system.

        In areas with titled land, fraudsters (like Ruto) have been having a field day depositing fake titles in banks (where they coerce and bribe managers) to secure huge loans to fund their flashy lifestyles and retrogressive politics. These loans are never repaid by the way…taxpayers always guarantee such bank losses. This was how the Moi regime crippled our economy. The Nyayo orphans seem too eager to return to them days!

        If CORD embarks on implementing just this aspect of the new Katiba (land reforms) besides entrenching (& increasing funding for) devolution; they would have changed millions of peoples’ lives. The National Land Commission would take up any complains of fraudulent public land acquisitions and investigate ownership.

        These things keep wakina Kenyatta and Ruto quite uncomfortable….since they know RAO has the will to delve right into this minefield. It has now become their business to try “stop” Raila at all cost…but their efforts seem to yield zero…This they’ll probably learn soon when they’re fully finished dispensing Mudavadi at high noon (Dec 18th)… the land aristocrats cum ICC suspects will be the ones who’ll find themselves in one corner, ready for the pinata bashing in March…just before ICC comes in with the EVD/OTP manenos. What a spectacle this can be…Karma can really be a patient timer.

      • Oh my God!

        You ladies and guys can keep on debating. I will just watch. This is going to be Messy or is it Messi by next Tuesday??!!


      • Tnk,

        Weakleaf is afraid to complain about the unfairly constituted delegate system decided between the parties. His political kichinjio is constituted by this Kangaroo court below:

        Jubilee nomination delegates:

        TNA = 282 + 1998 = 2,280 (45%)
        UDF = 282 + 1085 = 1,367 (27%)
        URP = 0 + 1,407 = 1,407 (28%)

        Out of the bat, Uhuru runs in with a lock on 45% delegates and only needs 5% from Ruto’s URP and he’s home and dry. Even Ruto’s URP (not in contest) has more delegates than Musalia’s. How will Mudavadi sell to folks of Mulembe this illusion called Jubilee?

        If you study this thing keenly, Mudavadi is belatedly trying to TALK his partners out of a primary contest, but rather into consensus to avoid an obviously impending humiliation. Kind of too late…by the way the Dec 18th date is the deadline for their nomination deposited at the Registrar of Political Parties…the law must be followed.

        Meanwhile Uhuru knows he has secured this thing and is in Dubai (one of the few places he can land at) throwing threats and tantrums to the international community (the West) while making invitations to fellow notorious African leaders to attend their kangaroo nomination…(what lack of originality). I wish wakina Mugabe and Bashir come as Adongo alluded elsewhere.

        http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-99357/jubilee-agrees-how-pick-its-president

      • Job its unbelievable and its like watching a horror movie in slow motion

        mudavadi

        jumped from being a chef (not even frying pan) into a friggin furnace, literally

        this guy had so much clout and power in ODM and didn’t even need to lift a finger, and now he is literally fighting for political survival

        i hope he was given enough cash otherwise this will be painful

        everything he complained about in ODM he is getting it reloaded and times two plus he’s going to miss out on both No.1 slot that he craved, and the comfortable No.2 that had been guaranteed.

        man, if there is a guy who would like the ICC to come to his rescue, this is the guy.

        like they say, a fool never really appreciates what he holds in his hand, until it gets taken away ….. then ….

  6. guys

    there’s several sides to the unfolding saga of how mudavadi was snagged

    first is the comedy on how he was simply used as a rubber stamp, all papers drafted and then he’s just told, weka kidole hapa na pale

    2nd is how by that simple action, the man is in a rut. he is either with uhuruto or he is at home. kwisha

    at this juncture how they play him from here on, doesnt matter, they can stage him as a president, running bait, run mate, bleeder of the majority etc. whatever their whim. basically he is a rabbit to be occasionally pulled out by the magicians to wow crowds

    could go on

    but the aspect that sends chills down my spine, and should serve as a significant heads up ( i mentioned this in an earlier post re: nguema), and Job captures it very well in the excerpts listed in his comment above.

    these guys gave us a sample demonstration of their guerrilla tribal warfare folks. this is the stuff that the PEV was made from. they zoned/targeted their victim(s) in this case lets call it the elusive luhya community whom they believed to be in their camp with on the one hand wamalwa and on the other mudavadi, both of them smulatenously and surprisingly at the last minute, slipping from their grip, and at this time remember that the kamba have already bolted. note also the meru will not be cheated this time, so they could not afford this loss, so they basically chose the one needing to be neutered i.e mudavadi, tracked and surrounded him and game him absolutely no choice or chance of free will. he was either going to sign that agreement or else he would sign the agreement. there was no free will. on the other hand they could not even afford the remote possibility of Eugene whom they by now have decided according to the fuzzy tribal math, does not bring enough seats to the table. but could nevertheless, not afford his joining the CORD camp, they therefore “detained” the hehehehe Minister of Justice until the storm passed.

    now folks here is why this is troubling. these guys are doing this in broad daylight (twilight hours really) when they do not have the absolute power. and the guys they are manipulating are; one is a whole DPM (fourth most senior state officer) and the other the Minister for Justice.

    now good people, what if these guys have the absolute power that a kenya president and a deputy president can have, tell me what happens when you cross this couple in a year? does Idi Amin cross anybody’s mind? guys, think about it. the entire attention of these guys as they go around playing nice today is the ICC, tell me if they are president and deputy, please show me who will ever again be caught publicly speaking again about the ICC in kenya? i can guarantee that ICC will be taboo and people will disappear just like that.

    i say this, that these guys have given us a glimpse of whats ahead. lets stand up and pay attention. they may be playing nice today, saying all the right things about prosperity and what not, but all that will change once absolute authority is in their hand. and as we all know, they are not interested in winning this contest fairly. all they need is the public perception that they stand a chance, and they will do the rest. for they learnt from the best in 2007 on how its done.

    ati even kibaki had to call mudavadi (how could that happen? if kibaki slept through out the PEV).

    folks the ante has been upped.

    and remember as with all despots, the savagery (in small bits) always starts with some sick sycophant not yet known to the public.

    we got some very rough days ahead. this ain’t a game anymore

    • tnk,
      I like this

      “at this juncture how they play him from here on, doesn’t matter, they can stage him as a president, running bait, run mate, bleeder of the majority etc. whatever their whim. basically he is a rabbit to be occasionally pulled out by the magicians to wow crowds”

      Yes Mudavadi is a laughing stock. The weakling has finally confirmed what people have been saying about him. Namely that he cannot stand on his own.

      Besides, history has not taught him anything. He lost his Sabatia seat due to dilly dallying and siding with the same duo. Some of my friends from his backyard are some mad with him they have vowed to teach him a lesson.

      As Adongo always says, fighting Raila can be a costly affair.

      When people see Raila doing things everyone thinks they can do the same lakini wapi.

      Raila´s path, figuratively speaking, is lined with political carcasses. Its in that heap that Mudavadi has found himself. I don’t feel sorry for him. Now he has a chance to bear guilt for the gang. After all he wanted Kenyans to do a collective hara-kiri on behalf of the Uhuruto mob.

      Good news is that the signing of CORD, I’m told, has fired the base up and people are registering as voters in large numbers.

      Guys, tell me where Wamalwa fits in and where he will harvest votes. We have to factor him in our calculus just the way we have done Karua and Kenneth.

    • tnk,
      You were right.
      They have started playing with Mudavadis mind. I hope he believes it, its good for him. psychologically otherwise he might go nuts.

      http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000072228&pageNo=1&story_title=Kenya-Leaders-prop-Mudavadi-as-compromise-candidate

      “Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta may forego his presidential ambition and support his ally Musalia Mudavadi.

      Sources close to Uhuru indicate the DPM and Eldoret North MP William Ruto are considering Mudavadi as a compromise candidate should they not run, to counter Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka’s coalition.”

      IT WONT HAPPEN AND IF IT HAPPENS THATS THE END OF TNA/URP. Even Wamalwa´s coalition will beat them.

    • 4TH MARCH 2013 RAILA LOSES ELECTION TO MUDAVADI AND YOUR 4TH PRESIDENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF KENYA IS
      WE ALL KNOW WHO THE NEXT PRESIDENT IS AS MUCH AS BOTH COALITIONS WERE HURRIEDLY CRAFTED ON A NEUTRAL PERSPECTIVE AND REAL PERSPECTIVE YOU CANT DENY THE VOTING PATTERN THAT KENYANS VOTE ON PARTY TRIBAL AND INDIVIDUAL LINES HOWEVER TRIBAL LINES PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN MAKING THE DECISION ESPECIALLY IF THEIR PREFERED TRIBAL CHIEF IS RUNNING FOR THE PRESIDENCY OF THE COUNTRY

      INFACT RECENT EVENTS JUST GO TO SHOW WE ELECT LEADERS WHO HAVE ALREADY BEEN SELECTED IN BOARDROOMS WE CANT DENY THIS FACT EVEN KIBAKI WAS SELECTED THROUGH MOU

      WHERE IS DEMOCARACY RAILA UHURU KALONZO RUTO MUDAVADI CANT CLAIM TO HAVE BEEN NOMINATED BY THEIR PARTY DELEGATES THERFORE LET US REFRAIN FROM APPRAISALS THAT POTRAY OUR AFFILIATIONS AS BEING DEMOCRATIC SO WE KNOW THE TRUTH

      AND THE DEEPER HURTING TRUTH IS THERE IS NO DEMOCARACY IN KENYA

      AND LIKE IT OR HATE IT I SPEAK FROM A NEUTRAL PERSPECTIVE WE ALL KNOW THE NEXT PRESIDENT IS MUDAVADI…..THGAT IS A FUNNY MOVE HIM AND KALONZO MADE WE CAN SAY ALL WE WAN TO SAY CRITICISE ETC ETC BUT TRUTH BE TOLD RAILA/KALONZO STANDS LITTLE CHANCE AGAINST THE TRIO ETC COALITIOJ ON THE OTHER SIDE

      ONLY SOMEBODY IN SELFDENIAL WOULD IGNORE OR REFUTE THIS FACT

  7. @Adongo

    That below was funny as hell.

    “How on earth would Uhuru go to the Kikuyu folks and tell them I give you Mudavadi as the president and Ruto as his deputy. People would faint in disgust.”

    Things are still evolving and even though I dislike Kalonzo the Musyoka with a passion, I am willing to look at the bigger picture of whats good for the country.
    I also thought the DPORK position for Ruto was only set in stone if Uhuru heads the ticket, If Uhuru doesn’t head the ticket then Ruto’s position changes. In essence they can recalibrate themselves whichever way suits them best. However, I think Musa-lia was roped in so that CORD doesn’t steal him, otherwise he is not of much use to the ticket because Uhuru will not step down.

  8. Pingback: Introducing The Coalition for Reform and Democracy (CORD) - Page 2

    • Some people are really used to doing things at night! Wow!

      At about 5.15pm, they left for the Laico Regency where they were joined by MPs drawn from TNA, URP and UDF.

      At the same time, they had dispatched officials of their respective parties — Mr Francis ole Kaparo and Mr David Chirchir (URP), Mr Hassan Osman and Mr Dan Ameyo (UDF) and Mr Johnson Sakaja and Mr Onyango Oloo (TNA) to deposit an amended version of their coalition agreement with the Registrar of Political Parties.”

      http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Drama-betrayal-in-alliance-deals-/-/1064/1637528/-/item/0/-/hl57wm/-/index.html

    • tnk,

      Oh boy…

      Oh Weakleaf, Weakleaf, Weakleafy! Signing his political death certificate at his own home!

      Mr Ruto reportedly called at about 10.30am asking where he [Mudavadi] was. Some 10 minutes later, Mr Kenyatta called and asked the same question. Without informing Mr Mudavadi that they were on their way, Mr Kenyatta and Mr Ruto abandoned their bodyguards and drove to the UDF leader’s residence with documents already prepared to incorporate him in their coalition at about 11.15am.

      Deputy Prime minister Uhuru Kenyatta and his running mate William Ruto arrived at Musalia Mudavadi’s home unannounced, with a coalition agreement drafted for his signature, according to aides…They then relaxed as Mr Mudavadi and his team pored over the documents.

      http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/Drama-betrayal-in-alliance-deals-/-/1064/1637528/-/ajtl55/-/index.html

      Here’s excerpts of the rest of the soap opera…

      Mr Gideon Moi was at the DPM’s house around the same time as Mr Kenyatta and Ruto and indeed signed a deal with the United Democratic Forum. It is not clear whether the parties knew of each other’s presence. At that time, a crowd was building up at the Kenyatta International Conference Centre, waiting for Mr Odinga and Mr Musyoka to sign their agreement.

      Meanwhile, a little diversion to Eugene Wamalwa on the very fateful 4th day of December, 2012:

      “There were offers from the two groups, but we decided as a party that I should go to the ballot box,” he [Wamalwa] said.

      What he did not say was that the TNA-URP group dispatched Internal Security Minister Katoo ole Metito to keep him busy until the deal with Mr Mudavadi was signed. Mr Metito’s vigil was also to ensure that the Raila-Kalonzo camp does not lure him to their group.

      Kupangwa ama kuchezwa?

      • So I waited till the day after the deadline for alliance building to hear the drama that was unfolding behind the scenes. Wah!!! its is even worse than I thought. Sounds like a scene from “tushauriane.” How desperate must Uhuruto have been to the point of ditching their bodyguards and ambushing Musa-Lia at his residence. And how dumb is Musa-lia to let himself get played like that.

        I mean Its no secret that he wasn’t in their initial plan’s……after all, the two had already signed a deal and were using him to counter CORD’s efforts. And then to show up with a draft already prepared as if Weakleaf is too dumb to participate in any negotiations Aaaaarrrggg. How much money does it take to be this dumb, and this is a man who would like to be president of Kenya. I once had a little respect for weakleaf…….not any more.

  9. Adongo,
    To sum up what you have said i will repeat what many have already said. If Uhuru steps down then the ticket falls on its butt. Uhuru is the glue that holds the coalition with his money and promise of kikuyu votes.

    Should he quit then Peter Kenneth and Martha Karua will be the people to watch in central.

    But to think that Uhuru will quit in favour of Mudavadi is to be dishonest. If he indeed step down dont expect him to camaign for Mudavadi.

    Selling Ruto without Uhuru wont do and leaders will quit the toxic coalition enmasse.
    This ticket is troublesome. No combination will do without Uhuru. So kibaki and co can shove it.

    • Mzee,

      You are damn right. If Uhuru has to step down then Ruto too has to step down. That is why Ruto very cleverly made sure according to the signed document he is the only candidate for the DPORK.

      Now imagine the TNA/URP going to the Kalenjins to tell them there is no Ruto here but you still have to vote for this ticket. Are you kidding me! Any Kalenjin votes going to this ticket will go on account of Ruto and if Ruto is out those votes are gone. And the sheer confusion and anger this will cause as people realise that some chess player somewhere (in State House) is playing them like a kinanda. People would run away from that beast to anywhere.

      Of course if Ruto was being played by State House and Uhuru was part of the game Ruto would explode before our very eyes. He would strangle Uhuru in broad daylight with his bare hands. That is why he protected himself in the deal.

      The only thing that saves these people from themselves is a court ruling and it is time barred until after the nomination.

      Whichever way the pundits and analysts like Mutahi Ngunyi batting for Mudavadi try to slice this thing, it is now a matter of choosing which poison to swallow and either stuff is deadly. Fighting Raila can do that to you. I am sure the “Raila is finished” society is busy singing somewhere. That is their problem.

      Personally I think both Uhuru and Ruto knew exactly what they were doing. They wanted to snatch Mudavadi from Raila and to project this so called broad alliance. Sadly enough for them they gave Raila and their CORD alliance all of Mudavadi’s votes without the alliance having to accomodate Mudavadi with anything. Talk about early Christmas. Uhuru and Ruto will be on that ticket.

      • janainteur,

        You have a point. The ICC fears and the pariah state consequnces are real. Kofi Annan talking to the BBC after his visit to Kenya minced no words. The story was actually reported in the DN yesterday. Annan said if the ICC suspects are elecetd and Kenya ends up being a pariah state it would be a disaster for the country. He said no country can live in isolation in this day and age. So yes, the ICC headache is real and people like Nick Wanjohi genuinely want Mudavadi so as to stop Raila not for anything else.

        The problem is the game is almost over. We are now in overtime and the team which sees itself losing is busy recruiting new players to come to play. Some of those players are not even members of the team. Even if they showed up they will have to be spectators.

        This is what I mean. The deadline for signing the coalition agreements for presidential nominations is over. Even if for the sake of arguement we agreed that someone wants to bring in Mudavadi and Henry Kosgey or Sally Kosgei as the deputy, none of those two unless they are secretly registered members of TNA/URP and have signed some secret agreements deposited with the register can be in the TNA/URP/UDF presidential ticket. The law does not allow them to be flag bearers of TNA/URP/UDF because as of right now they are still members of ODM and we are talking Dec 6, 2012 a full two days after the deadline. If they want to replace Ruto they will have to settle for Kutuny or Isaac Ruto. Don’t laugh now fellas.

        Any defections now cannot impact on the presidential tickets. It can only apply to other nominations and even then I think the time to be registered is over and one will have to declare themselves an independent and I don’t know how that gets you nominated by any party. The Political Parties act with all its defects is pretty rough on last minute defections. That lunacy has been checked.

        If the Kibaki folks wanted to get Uhuru and Ruto out of the race and put others the time to do so has long passed. The final whistle is around the corner and the referee keeps glancing at the watch. The race to State House has pretty much began. If you are recruting new players now you may have to wait for the next season and that will be in 2017. That is the harsh reality Kenya has to deal with. We will handle it as it comes.

  10. Am informed that earlier today Sally Kosgei made her intentions clear and effectively put a stop to all the rumors/phone calls/emissaries etc by presenting her ODM nomination papers. if nominated she will defend her aldai seat on an ODM ticket.

  11. Adongo et all have “killed” me with the 1st class comentary. I just talked to my folks in western and the ground has tremendously shifted from last evening when they heard that Musa -Lia has bolted to join TNA/URP wing

  12. My assessment of the situation is that it does not matter what combination the Uhuruto gang puts forward. Put Uhuru, Mudavadi or even Ruto on top of the ticket and the results will be the same i.e. a thorough beating by CORD.

    By doing the silly acrobatics Mudavadi has lost all credibility with the electorate starting with his own backyard of western province. People of Western province had been very comfortable in ODM and even when Mudavadi left the party, the people never followed him en-masse as he had expected. He kept blaming Raila for the first few months until he realized people were getting groggy of his little gig. That’s when it dawned on him that campaigning was more than shouting Raila this and that. Soon he ran out of steam and kept waiting for Kibaki to declare him tosha, lakini wapi. Then he asked Kalonzo to be his running mate and got a middle finger. That’s when he lost all hope and came crying to Uhuruto to give him anything, any post. Hata mkia ni nyama.

    So he was given mkia and a less embarrassing exit strategy. Uhuru Kenyatta will not spend billions of shillings building a party only to be elbowed out by Mudavadi. Never on earth, it´s not happening, not in Kenya and not with the ICC beckoning. Ruto being very clever and knowing that he might not even become number two if he entered the contest for president with Uhuru and Mudavadi has decided to stick with the DPORK. He knows too well that Uhuru will beat Mudavadi with ease. Mudumb Mudavadi will now be forced to go for a senate seat somewhere in ingo. However, there is nothing to suggest that he will win such a seat either. He might be beaten the way it happened when Moi gave him the VP post. One can say that Mudavadi is politically dumb inspite of having spent all his adult life in politics.

    The so called majority leader’s position he has been promised does not even excite hang ons such Bonny Khalwale. Apart from that, there is nothing to say the TNA/URP coalition will have majority in parliament. In which case the poor thing can only be a minority leader. It’s a pity but that’s the bed Mudavadi made and has to rest in it.

    In the Scenario where Mudavadi beats Uhuru in the nominations, all the Kikuyu votes that could have gone to Uhuru is split between Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth. I can’t imagine a situation where the Kikuyu vote for a Ruto/Mudavadi ticket and leave out two of their own. It won’t happen.

    In other words, Martha Karua and Peter Kenneth if not convinced to step aside from the race will completely mess up Uhuruto game plan. Martha and Kenneth will get at least 500 000 votes each or something close to that from central province at the detriment of the Hague duo. I’m not sure about Peter Kenneth but Karua will never step aside for the Uhuruto gang. Never.

    I’m still looking at how CORD will navigate former RVP but word on the ground has it that the party will get a fair share of votes in the area. That is all it needs to win. Game is up for the Hague crew.
    CORD is going to clean sweep former coast province. That’s a given and people such as Balala are going to face the same fate one former MP Sharrif Nassir. Talk about betting on the wrong horse. I’m loving and it’s still 2012.

      • einstein,

        It is just Uhuruto. Muda is on stand by to enter the field later and the game is approaching the 90th minute with Uhuruto team pinned in their own ten yard and they are behind by three goals. Icc strike that is one, misguided tribal math that is not working, that is two and Kenyans deciding to put their country first, three zip. This is like Messi joining kingkong strikers football club of Kawangware hardware store and not even entering the field. Not fair, is it?

        What a day. One more thing. This CORD alliance if they really get their act together can have some major impact in urban counties like Nairobi and Mombasa, the two largest in the country. If they can strategically work in Nairobi and Mombasa and chose smart and diverse teams they will beat those Uhuru hooligans of kina Waititu, Sonko na Kadhalika. They have the numbers. And the Uhuru gangsters are not even going to give Messi a chance to try anything in Nairobi. Kaa chini. That is it for him.

        If you take Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Machakos, Bungoma. Garissa. Kisii etc with smart governors committed to real devolution and not the stone dwellers (throwers) like Waititu who will sabotage everything you are well on your way to bring some real changes in Kenya if you work hard. The work needed to improve the lives of the urban population in Kenya is collosal. CORD could get a chance to have major impact in that critical area.

        I would urge Peter Kenneth to go for the governorship of Muranga and work with these folks and as he bids his time for the future. If Mudavadi was smart he would go for the governor of Kakamega, one of the most populous counties instead of warming the bench for the kingkong boys who are going nowhere. Then he can join the big leagues.

        We will see what tomorrow brings

  13. there are a number of cool things here Job

    a) whereas URP/TNA have been running around with lots of empty debes making the most amount of noise, CORD has been worked out in relative silence and with professional expertise. obviously as you point out, a lot of detail was factored in, unlike the last minute inclusion of UDF into the TNA deal (almost like an afterthought)

    b) there has been genuine and concerted effort to reach out to genuine reformers as suggested of ngilu and that is great. making the effort is well worth it even if turned down, let the people know that the effort was made

    c) ultimately when the cash stops flowing in TNA/URP a massive fallout will ensue with disastrous impact

    d) uhuru is a pragmatist, and will make a dramatic turn of events, while ruto will be forced to go on the offensive very soon. and people will ask ruto why he allowed himself to get cornered.

    wow and its only Tuesday

    meanwhile all eyes on

    Moi Orphans Reloaded


  14. Adongo,

    I just saw one of your responses in another thread & wanted to import its very relevant content into this thread…

    This new katiba closes any new alliances today and nothing else can be done until after the elections. That is why they had to herd Mudavadi right inside the Register’s office as time ran out to cook up something for him.

    Of all the dizzying political activities of the historic 4th day of December 2012, this (above) is the one significant event that will be remembered for a long time to come. Mudavadi seems not to have fully grasped the reality that Uhuru’s ICC conundrum restricts the latter’s options to a single one – only President Uhuru can save Uhuru! Even Kibaki and his handlers couldn’t convince Uhuru to stand down for Mudavadi…why did son of Budamba imagine he could?

    Just like that, Mudavadi is in between the crocodile’s closed jaws…the registrar of political parties has locked the den. As soon as the routine matter of TNA/URP/UDF “nominations” are over in a couple of weeks…everyone will be laughing at Mudavadi trying to hawk a house majority leader position, alongside two toxic ICC suspects (as President and Deputy President) to his folks. Some things can’t sell for sure.

    So here is the nightmare. Ruto has been retained as the Deputy in the new coalition. That means the only changes expected are as to who leads the ticket and that is between Uhuru and Mudavadi. There is no way in hell that muthamaki can go to his supporters and give give them a ticket of Mudavadi and Ruto. They would throw up enmass. The only reason the muthamaki flock were even contemplating a union with Ruto whom they hate with a passion was that he was going to be Uhuru’s minion. So unless Mudavadi is a grand fool, which I don’t think he is, he already knows that he has been handed the position of Majority leader. Now you tell me, how does Mudavadi go sell that even to his own Maragoli folks. He is going to be the laughing stock of Western and the whole country.

    Precisely!

    Secondly the much talked about coalition nominations must be done within three weeks. The nomination day is Jan 4, 2013. All these coalitions must come up with nomination rules and carry on the nomination in record time. There is no room for monkey business.

    Grapevine has it that Mudavadi was tricked by Ruto…who whispered to him (Muda) that URP would join UDF in supporting his nomination run against TNA’s Uhuru. Every Tom, Dick and Harry should have guessed correctly – that Ruto only wants Uhuru at the top ticket. Ruto in fact has disdain for his earstwhile ex-ODM rival Mudavadi. It might take time for Mudavadi to figure out these issues while inside the crocodile’s jaw.

    ODM for example has already re-scheduled their NDC which was intended for this weekend. It will be re-scheduled for another week or so to accomodate all the myriad of parties in the CORD alliance. My sense is that when that convention is held, it will also be the mechanism to announce the presidential nominees. Essentially people already know who the presidential and deputy nominees are. The rest is just paper work to be done by members at the convention. The Uhuruto mob now with Mudavadi must also schedule a convention to nominate their presidential candidate as soon as possible. From the looks of it, Uhuru will hold the ticket with Ruto as his deputy just as was the case before. The only difference is Mudavadi has been brought in and probably now completely destroyed politically.

    I wonder whether Mudavadi will start hitting the press tomorrow calling for “fair nominations” as he did prior to bolting out of ODM. This time there is no bolting out. The registrar has already locked him in TNA/URP/UDF.

    The Integrity ruling will come alright but like I said it will be long after the nominations so whetever it is it will have no impact on the presidential candidates. People will have to live with the choices they make right now.

    The trouble is…even if Judges knock out Uhuru and Ruto under the Integrity Chapter say in February (after the horse bolts out of the stable)…the legality of any belated replacements (past stipulated deadlines) could be challenged in court. Besides the legality, the political conundrum becomes whether Uhuru’s constituency can vote as a bloc for say a Mudavadi-Sally Kosgei ticket? Does that ticket appeal to a voter in say Kirinyaga, Muranga or Embu when Karua and Kenneth are on the ballot? My crystal ball tells me that is where things start getting dicey. This ticket needs nothing short of a full capacity Mt. Kenya vote to succeed. Otherwise CORD runs over it decisively.

    One idea being floated by us is that ODM and now their allies tell all M.Ps and aspirants that when the time comes for members to vote for them for nomination, those members will be required to show their ODM/Allies membership card plus the new voters card to vote. There is no need bring in members to nominate you when they can’t even vote in the real election. We are going to push for that.

    Exactly I brought this up with an ODM honcho and we must push it from all angles.

    IEBC also have to appreciate that this the first time ALL Kenyans voters are being asked to register in 30 days. It is not possible. In the past only those not already registered were asked to do so. This time it is everybody.

    Coupled with this is the current insecurity/ongoing security operations in select areas. This has to be redressed. It is also impractical to expect marginalized yet huge areas in North Eastern and Northern Kenya to register even 40% eligible voters in 30 days. Such one-size-fits-all ideas need serious redress.

    • Job, CORD happens to be the biggest ever coalition since independence. Yes, Omingo was present at KICC. If CORD can unite the Abagusii and Akambaa vote into single voting blocks, then we are looking at a 1st round landslide victory.

      But perhaps more importantly, although parties are not dissolving, all candidates will be appearing on ballot paper as CORD candidates. This new political parties act has definitely brought some sanity into our politics and is an advantage that can drive issue based campaigns forward.

      It is a two horse race.

    • wow!! still trying to come to terms with today’s roller-coaster ride. yes, i spotted omingo magara in the crowd, and ngilu…who would have thought? seems to me that everyone (except martha,kiraitu, gitobu etc) has fixed themselves somewhere.
      i hope the remaining rift valley crew will still be with us tomorrow morning 🙂

      as we often tell our children – you get what you get and you don’t get upset. ie not all wishes are granted 🙂 yeah, kalonzo is in the house. i know it’s a little too late to bolt-out but i won’t be surprised if history repeats itself.

      • @ Akinyi,

        Gitobu Imanyara was right there at KICC. CORD is an instant national hit that has spread its wings across the country.

        Folks,

        The deal formulation strategically looked at Kenya from the big picture; unlike the coalition of suspects who viewed Kenya from the prism of two tribes….until their belated ooops moment trying to reaching out to Musalia.

        1) Geographically – majority of former provinces of NEP, Coast, Western, Nairobi, Eastern, and Nyanza are in. Expect a strong showing in RVP.

        (i) A more nuanced view will tell you that Ukambani has united for the first time into CORD. Whereas ODM scored 6/8 provinces last time…Eastern comes into their column this time.

        (ii)The former RVP will be a vote battleground until the eleventh hour with CORD getting its sizeable share. Why? (a) I saw the entire Turkana leadership, whether Ford-K, PNU, ODM was seated at KICC today inside the CORD tent (b) I saw heavy presence of the Maasai ( whether Ntimama’s Narok; or Ole Nkaiserry’s Kajiado) at that CORD launch…Kajiado county politics has already strained Maa relations with TNA…a reflection likely to project in March 2013. (c) cosmopolitan areas of Nakuru, Eldoret, Naivasha etc will reflect reasonable CORD support (d) the Trans Nzoia belt inhabited by Bukusus and other migrants will lean towards CORD…all that before the important Kalenjin question.

        (iii) Nairobi will surprise many folks…CORD will sweep not just many parliamentary seats in Nairobi but the Presidential and Gubernatorial vote..heavily boosted by the addition of the Kamba (who are quite numerous in Nairobi).

        (iv) The former Nyanza province has cobbled a historic feat that will likely shock many on election day (for those who’ve not seen it yet). For the first time, the Kuria, Kisii and Luo sections have basically been forced to merge into CORD out of common interests. Three parties with roots in Kisii – the late Anyona’s KNC, Omingo Magara’s PDP, and a third escaping my mind..have basically all trooped in and were at KICC today. In Kuria, former DP honcho and PNU MP Wilfred Machage has not only abandoned DP/PNU, but officially joined ODM/CORD ready to go for one of the Migori County seats (likely Senate) – fully supported by Migori Luo neighbours. He too was at KICC. These factors collectively will uplift the regional vote tally tremendously.

        v) The ODM leadership has confirmed they will hit the trail to boost voter registration at the Coast; currently slow in Kilifi and Kwale but ok in Mombasa. Attempts by security to intimidate Coastal youth (in the name of MRC) may backfire like it did in the US (Florida and Ohio) where people who were being suppressed instead got mad and went in huge numbers to register. CORD is likely to sweep Coast overwhelmingly…Balala is not getting any county seat – take that to the bank. The TNA/URP/UDF merger has basically relegated Mwakwere (who had earlier promised his folks the Deputy Presidency flag under Ruto) into grassroots smithereens.

        (vi) A similar sentiment could replicate in NEP which is basically ODM/CORD country.

        Vii) CORD is starting this thing with a huge presence in the former Western – whether Bungoma, Busia, parts of Kakamega or even the Bunyore portion of Vihiga county. So long as Mudavadi is not on top of the ballot, CORD sweeps Western, period! Let Uhuru and Ruto know upfront that the folks of Mulembe are not going to support the 50-year-old status-quo of Kikuyu-Kalenjin ping-pong presidency that has ruled (ruined) Kenya for the last 50 years.

        If the two ICC suspects are imagining they are trying to trick the Luhya using Mudavadi – they will be in for a rude shock. They are cheating themselves instead. As soon as they play Mudavadi, Western is CORD country, end of story!

        2) Crunching the IEBC voter registration data.

        I’ll do an abstract analysis probably this weekend if I get time…but so far: The former Central leads having registered about 44% of eligible voters with 12 more days to go…Close on their heels is Nyanza at 38% (Luo Nyanza about 41%)…and South Rift 37%….former Western is at 32%…Nairobi is also in the 30s…Ukambani is at 24%…

        The data portends well for CORD but they must sprint to close the voter registration with a bang. Focus of all CORD leaders, affiliate parties, aspirants, volunteers, civic leaders, etc must now turn on closing this voter registration deal….it must be done in a systematic manner. Serious and aggressive mobilization from Coast, NEP, Ukambani.

        This thing is within reach in the very first round…CORD must just play its cards meticulously.

        Let’s get to work…

        Baadaye!!!!

        unedited

      • job,

        Brilliant take. With the broad coalition they have put together and the very inspiring message of “Putting Our Country First” CORD has the capacity totake this thing in round one. In any event I don’t see the possibility of a run off in this election given the fact that there is no third force to speak of.

        Today very appropriately the lame duck EACC of the now infamous disbarred Matemu has announced Uhuru and Ruto are free to run. That is one more nail in Mudavadi’s coffin. Once Uhuruto bury Mudavadi it is a clear cut fight between CORD and Uhuruto, I am putting my mom’s last goat on the line here that CORD will beat Uhuruto hands down and you have outlined the parameters of that battle adequately so I will not repeat them.

        At the end of the day this is all about Uhuru. Everybody has been brought in for Ngina’s boy and god knows he comes with the biggest baggage ever assembled on one man of which the land issue is the most damning for him. It puts him in huge problems at the coast and neither Balala nor Mwakwere can help him with that. The land issue is also Uhuru’s biggest problem in Rift Valley. The idea that because a Kalenjin is not going to be Raila’s deputy and therefore the Kalenjins will just flock to Uhuru is misguided. In 2007 Ruto was a big part of the ODM success there but it was only after the ground stayed with Raila that Ruto embraced him too.

        So yes Ruto will get votes for Uhuru in RV but Raila will get his fair share too and his appeal to them is the fact that he is genuine about land reforms. Ruto can’t take that away from him. The message on land has to be articulated carefully and thoughtfully with a very clear underpinning that all Kenyans must live together in peace which means every Kenyan has a right to live and to own land anywhere in the republic of Kenya but no Kenyan has a rigth to grap other peoples’ land and own it forever. There is a reason there is so much unease within RV about an Uhuru presidency. It is the land issue.

        When Raila went to ask for forgiveness from the Kalenjin community and asked Ruto to join him, the noisemakers laughed it off as an act of desperation. In hindsight it was a very smart move. It is going to serve him well as he talks to that community. He allowed himself to shed off the mask of arrogance and the I don’t care about you attitude which is common with politicians. Those folks are going to welcome him and listen to him and if the CORD team works deligently with Kalenjin leaders at al levels they are going to do very well.

        The other area where there must be very careful and thoughtful inclusive navigation of the terrain is the Gussi region as well as working with the Kuria folks and their Luo neighbours in Migori and the broader South Nyanza. Build smart and dynamic teams. Be inclusive. Compromise with each other. Abandon any bully tactics and articulate the needs of the communities and let everybody and every community feel involved. And then build all these into the CORD message of “putting our country first”.

        All these must start with a clear visionary team at the national level. That has to be put together within the next couple of days. We are going to chip in our two cents. There is work out there but it can be done. Nothing is going to come easy. We are going to put together very concrete ideas on what we think can be done. Those who have some ideas and no contact can feel free to contact me through the admin with their ideas. We are already at work.

        Of course we have the elephant in the tent. The ICC nightmare. Wish that away at your own peril. Uhuruto’s worst fear must be that come sometime in February 2013 way after the nominations are done and Mudavadi buried never to be seen again a court ruling will cripple them by allowing them to run just for fun. It puzzles me that they didn’t put in place a plan B by letting Mudavadi do a cameo run even with Peter Kenneth so that if things fall apart they can secretly or not even so secretly direct the traffic there. That is now water under the bridge but it may end up being one of their biggest blunders.

        The idea that the present arrangement keeps Mudavadi as a back up should things get messy is nonsense since the court rulings will come long after the nominations and no party can substitute names after Jan 4, 2013. So there is no back up period.

      • With talk doing rounds that UDF founders (meaning Kibaki’s core cabinet) influenced the desperate act of enjoining Mudamba in the Uhuruto fraternity, it may just be too early to write of Mudamba just yet. If what I hear is true(that the Wanjohi faction of PNU are engaging Uhuru in earnest to have him throw his weight behind the son of Substone) then COR had better not hedge their campaign on Uhuruto ICC dilemma. Not just yet.

      • Nalinali,

        It is indeed true that Uhuruto were pressured to bring in Muda by kina Wanjohi and Kibaki’s big boys. Remember when they brought Mudavadi in he was being flown around in state helicopters and has also been Kibaki’s stand in at the UN and other gatherings. So it is pretty obvious that the more sane forces in the Kibaki oligarchy know that selling an Uhuru presidency is a nightmare.

        The problem is Uhuru has rebuffed them all the time and in fact Uhuru got so mad and went full steam to build his TNA and even team up with Ruto to show them he is his own man and will not take orders from Wanjohi and company.

        The real problem is they are telling Uhuru to cool off and let Mudavadi in while Uhuru is headed to The Hague for chomaring folks in Naivasha and elsewhere on request of help from State House. Uhuru is basically telling them, listen you sent me to go kill people and I foolishly did it for you and now you want to bring Mudavadi to chill at State House while I get my ass roasted at The Hague, screw you. That is what Uhuru has told them in so many words and that is why the same State House has been baby sitting Uhuru letting him behave as if he is the new Mtukufu in town.

        Uhuru would not mind letting Mudavadi in and even helping him to get votes if Kibaki would pull the plug on the ICC and do the pariah state gig himself but the mzee is too scared to do that. He does not know how the country would react and he is not ready for another turmoil like what he saw after he robbed the vote. Therein lies the stalemate. There is no way Uhuru would trust his fate in the hands of Mudavadi if Kibaki for whom he committed the distardly acts can’t save him.

        So when the big boys rounded up the new “kids” yesterday and locked them in a room to make a deal they made the worst possible deal and sent a clear message that Uhuru is going nowhere. The killer in the deal is letting Ruto be the sole occupant of the DPORK slot. How on earth would Uhuru go to the Kikuyu folks and tell them I give you Mudavadi as the president and Ruto as his deputy. People would faint in disgust. They will ask Uhuru why he can’t run if Ruto can run. Uhuru has already been told that none of his supporters would ever vote for Ruto. They hate him. But they have agreed to hold their noses and vote in a ticket that includes Ruto because Uhuru is on top of the ticket. Now to ask them to accept the ticket without Uhuru and Ruto still on it is to ask them to commit suicide. They can’t do that and won’t do it. So by keeping Ruto in the ticket without even the pretence of a contest the message to kina Wanjohi is thanks but no thanks.

        For CORD they get the best deal. Uhuruto takes out Mudavadi from the presidential race which can only add them votes and then they dump Mudavadi to be the “tea lady” in the coalition.

        Fortunately for CORD they were not just waiting for blunders from Uhuruto. They minted something hardly seen in Kenya since 2002 when Narc was born. Some people are whinning why Raila and ODM has gone back to working with Kalonzo. They may have a point but they miss the big picture. By this action Raila achieved something very hard to achieve. He showed the country that he has a heart for the welfare of the nation above all else and he is not a vindictive petty man who is stuck on “pay back” time. That is very important in our politics and it is one of the fears some people have against Raila.

      • Nalinali,
        I think that CORD is aware of all the happenings. Mudavadi is already a laughing stalk in western province. Infact he has lost all credebility in the country called kenya. Had he stayed in ODM he would most certainly have been number two. But being a politically dumb he let himself be used by Kibaki. As James Hardley Chase always said, he who laughs best laughs last. CORD will be laughing all the way to state house.

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