Mudavadi’s and KANU’s (mis-) fortunes

We have been talking in general about the different coalitions, and how they came about as well as the key players either individuals or parties.

I would however like to just narrow focus for a little bit on two entities:- Mudavadi and KANU

Before i proceed lets watch this. Also pay attention in the last minutes of the clip and see how Ngunyi in his usual eloquent self, continues to market and sell snow to guys living in Greenland. Its phenomenal

Now, from the foregoing there are several scenarios to ponder

a) Were these two entities (remember although they are in the same pit, they probably arrived there seperately) so completely desperate, that when the carrot was dangled (or was it straw), they simply had no choice and grabbed at it with both hands and feet and everything else?

If this is indeed the case, how did they arrive at the bottom of this pit? Was it by making poor decisions along the way, or was it due to some extremely clever ploy by political geniuses who thoroughly beat them into a corner

b) Or perhaps on the other hand, are these two entities, a project or projects of the oligarchy to re-invent themselves and having found that there exists a gap (ICC and / or tribal inclination) in the TNA/URP axis are exploiting it by injecting themselves into the matrix knowing very well that there are mutual benefits to be derived. They may hate each other, but without UDF, TNA is central province leaning and URP is RV leaning, making them two tribal outfits having experienced presidency, do not want to let go.

c) Was Mudavadi and/or KANU over-rated in their importance and somehow people made a mistake and invested in their fortunes only to realise too late the folly, and are now in desperate late comeback moves?

Am sure there are many other scenarios to ponder

One thing is however clear, where it is now, the engineers that designed this carriage got the design all wrong.

They each have a carriage and two heads that must be connected

Each head can only face one direction and its opposite to the other head. If you put the two heads next to each other, they head butt each other and leave the carriage intact or cannot see each other and one gets played. if on opposite sides of the carriage, they pull in different directions.

The carriage here is their supporters and the two heads are (for presidency) uhuru and mudavadi, and (for the political parties) URP and KANU in rift valley

What a quandary, what a nightmare.

As the events unfold, and as supporters of the coalition come to terms with what they are faced with, we shall in due course determine whether this was a brilliant work of a scheming strategist, or simply the blunder of the century.

Stay tuned

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9 comments on “Mudavadi’s and KANU’s (mis-) fortunes

  1. ‘The two fell apart when Magara failed to secure Raila’s support to recapture his South Mugirango seat the June 2010 by-election. ‘

    Our Journalists should do more research, the above statement is misleading, Magara rebelled against ODM long before the 2010 by election, he was a Ruto pointman in Kisii and even embarrased Raila by having a fund raiser ( in which Ruto attended while raila was campaigning for an ODM Candidate.

  2. Tnk,

    You know, I have massive problems with Jakaswanga’s analysis of issues. He relies too much on plain street rumours and never tires to bring in the ethnic angle and more so about the Luos!

    So, please take his analysis with a pinch of salt!

    • einstein

      i hear you

      actually the only thing i want to take away from that post is, who were the other players engaged in the negotiations that brought about CORD, and what are the finer details behind the agreement. it appears to be well thought out, crafted and coordinated without much of the kelele and hubris like that of TNA

      these “juicy” stories glorifying individuals and giving blow by blow accounts can be fascinating to read, but for older folk like myself have zero impact.

      i was hoping someone with intimate insider knowledge can furnish us with more accurate details. otherwise we run the risk of such bar-room spins clouding an otherwise very mature process. thats kind of where am heading.

      • tnk,

        Maybe this article might give you some insight about who is who in the Raila team. Here we go:

        Raila’s pillars

        KENYA: Finally with the nod of party delegates, it is all systems go for Prime Minister Raila Odinga as he assembles his political arsenals – including friends – in what could be his last stab at the presidency.

        Even as he acknowledged the formal backing of officials and supporters of the giant Orange Democratic Movement last Friday, observers attribute the success to politicians and business associates. According to observers, friends and more friends could help him achieve his political goal.

        His ability to reach out to sworn enemies or allies turned foes is particularly a valuable for Raila. With his loyal ally Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi having quit ODM coupled with sustained attacks by then G-7-led trio of Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka, DPM Uhuru Kenyatta, and Eldoret North MP William Ruto some had penned Raila’s political obituary.

        But the super charmer that he is, Raila has reached out to Kalonzo, with the help of Government Joint Whip Johnstone Muthama – the man who has been his harshest critic during the so-called G-7 prayer rallies for International Criminal Court suspects Uhuru and Ruto. Also back on Raila’s side is former ODM national treasurer, Omingo Magara, a one-time ally of Ruto, who has been critical of the PM. The two fell apart when Magara failed to secure Raila’s support to recapture his South Mugirango seat the June 2010 by-election.

        Prof Makau Mutua, the Dean at Buffalo Law School, The State University of New York, US, argues that it is difficult to understand Raila without comprehending the context in which he became a leader.

        Psychosis and psychology

        Mutua says Raila is a personification of the political ambition of his family and that of the Luo community.

        “A psychosis and psychology that is forged by the Luo conviction that they are outsiders in the Kenyan State that has excluded them and assassinated their most brilliant sons.” In actualising this conviction, however, some of Raila’s closes friends have accused him of destroying his presidential ambition if not boxing him into a tribal or regional cocoon. Front runners

        Criticised variously by foes and allies alike as an undisciplined organiser and poor negotiator, Raila has over the years relied heavily on the support of friends and contribution of hired professionals.

        Even as he puts the final touches on his biggest political contest, the most addling factor to many remains how Raila has easily transformed from his streetwise approach, including the stone-thrower tag, to a respected Pan-Africanist with credible credentials for being Kenya’s Head of State, and a statesman.

        Besides climbing the ladder courtesy of friends, Former Nyeri MP Wanyiri Kihoro blames Raila’s earlier dirty image to deliberate smear campaign by the Kanu regime. The PM, says the aspirant for Nairobi’s Governor seat, was targeted for his abrasive challenge of the status quo.

        Worst form

        “He was never a stone- thrower, but he was painted in the worst form, including as a dictator, with a view to dissuade the masses from appreciating his efforts. Isn’t it odd, for instance, that Mzee Jomo Kenyatta was treated similarly and detained in 1952 for what we all now understand was a just war to emancipate his countrymen and women?” poses Wanyiri, chairman of Independence Society, club of independent candidates in the March 4 elections.

        But the real challenge, which now rests in the hands of his handlers, is how to transform Raila from his current national stature to Kenya’s fourth president. Key among the players is Sally Kosgey, who has international links and who reportedly saved the day for the ODM team in 2007 by getting international intervention following the botched presidential poll. There is also James Orengo, who leads Raila’s legal team, which now includes former Attorney General, Amos Wako, who together with Education minister Mutula Kilonzo reportedly crafted the recent coalition memorandum involving ODM, Wiper Democratic Movement, and Ford-Kenya.

        The former AG, who will be vying for a Senate seat in Busia County, told The Standard On Sunday that he opted to team up with Raila because he considers him a more serious leader who is committed to implementation of the new Constitution, which he helped to formulate.

        Other crucial players expected to shape Raila’s final lap race include party national Chairman Henry Kosgey, Secretary General Anyang’ Nyong’o, and Cabinet colleagues, Moses Wetangula, Dalmas Otieno, Chris Obure, Fred Gumo, Franklin Bett, and Amason Kingi.

        Others are central Kenya businessman Peter Kuguru, former Attorney General Charles Njonjo, Housing Assistant minister Margaret Wanjiru, and Imenti Central MP, Gitobu Imanyara.

        http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000072421&story_title=Kenya-Raila%E2%80%99s-pillars

      • tnk,

        The video clip below is a starting point.

        “einstein

        i hear you

        actually the only thing i want to take away from that post is, who were the other players engaged in the negotiations that brought about CORD, and what are the finer details behind the agreement. it appears to be well thought out, crafted and coordinated without much of the kelele and hubris like that of TNA

        these “juicy” stories glorifying individuals and giving blow by blow accounts can be fascinating to read, but for older folk like myself have zero impact.

        i was hoping someone with intimate insider knowledge can furnish us with more accurate details. otherwise we run the risk of such bar-room spins clouding an otherwise very mature process. thats kind of where am heading.”

  3. while we are on this topic

    have just seen/stumbled on a new spin by jakaswanga on jukwaa

    http://jukwaa.proboards.com/index.cgi?action=display&board=general&thread=7637&page=1#112092

    in this post we are introduced to dalmas otieno, as the schemer that moved (forced the move of) the chess pieces

    clearly there is a fissure in hierarchy and the resultant power vacuum requiring plug in. whether in the mind of the lower class or the high class, as always, is a matter for conjecture

    at this point in time, i do not know whether this is true or not.

    but this is perfectly in tune with smoke screens, plugs and any other possibility (truth whether living or remote possibility). personally i think its diversionary but will nevertheless still explore it. (have had time to digest this material and think its erroneous, but nevertheless, want to capture it as is – more detail will follow)

    i think someone is trying very hard to plant a tribal perspective where none exists.

    anyway will come back to this in a few days.

    jakaswanga’s post re-imaged verbatim herebelow

    ==

    DALMAS OTIENO: LOOKING FOR LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL

    In my opinion one of the most fascinating characters in Kenyan political thinking, Heavy D. Otieno has been at it again. But why has be broken cover?

    In the frenzied ululations of the CORD phenomenon, as witnessed on Jukwaa by several of our stalwart correspondents, majorly Foresight and Omwenga ora, I think there is a palpable refusal to analyse the phoenix that Uhuru had become, so they fail to give the devil his dues.

    Ditched by Kibaki and the older power Moguls of the house of Mumbi, Uhuru nevertheless stuck to his guns and, with an assortment of rabid techniques, cannibalised PNU, marginalised PNU’s allies [read DP], and managed to create the perception that he had bagged the 4m plus votes in MK. Not to mention that the polls continuously ranked him second [to Raila]. The son of Jomo, hitherto always someone else’s project, emerged as his own man. That is something.

    At the same time, enjoying the support of his own feet, newly discovered, he carried on a national bluff-poker of being on the ballot whatever Ocampo or his able Bensouda replacement did. Practically holding the nation hostage, and, worse, reading from the subsequent appointments to cabinet and other top government jobs, effectively assuming command of the state from Kibaki, or the Rasputin Wanjohi who has usurped decisions as he keeps the PORK in coma.
    Even the judiciary has stood to attention in all cases involving Kenyatta. Waiting. Fidgeting. The CJ nerve-racked and biting his nails.

    I think, that the possibility of an ICC-Uhuru presidency for real, with its international implications, and another MK tenure at the helm, has been the real shaker and mover of other moves. And when Ruto became Uhuru’s public running mate, the definitive event had happened, the Big-Bang, to which other players would must react, with final best sets.

    Seeing the courts, local or not, could not be relied on to do the job, how then to beat UK at the ballot, realistically speaking? Raila was no longer the man to beat. It had become Uhuru Kenyatta.

    Preventing an Uhuru presidency had become the core of siasa moto-moto as Jukwaa’s Nereah would call it: Saving the nation from Uhuru’s ICC rule!

    Dalmas Otieno Pache Ohingo Pachji, can’t be anybody else, the evil genius of KANU mathematics, first drove it home. He told Raila: Kalonzo can not be allowed to team up with Uhuruto. Then he punched Nairobi numbers, with reference to the last election, corrected a bit with some new math. Nobody in ODM could come up with a rebuttal that Uhuruto + Kalonzo [and the remaining pastoral hangers on] would not sweep Nairobi at at-least a 60:40 ratio. [Governor and senators all TNA, then a few consolation enclave constituencies for ODM, and which could only be won by population re-arrangements up-head, EG all Luos taking cards in just about two constituencies only!] [think ethno-mandering as opposed to the original gerrymandering in the USA] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gerrymandering

    Reading between the lines when the Nairobi-star reports: ‘there had been no interests in 15 out of a hundred civic seats in the city-county, from ODM activists.’That is these seats were perceived as TNA slots long ago and surrendered so. The Nairobi ODM think-turks were witless. The technocratic strategists Aladwa, Kidero, Kisia et al were not forthcoming with ideas; on the contrary, they set about alienating Bishop Wanjiru and her sheep some more.

    But not the HD Nestor Dalmas Otieno, –Few men in Kenya know what this man is made of upstairs. A grimacing Otieno decided to show these city glitter boys the difference between them amateurs and the men, in real Kenyan politic. –[Moi still has a soft spot for him, Dalmas, him who told Moi [who persistently is reported to have once pulsed him for the VP slot] that he was not interested in power, but just had his kicks being around it. So he lacked the ambition to be VP, and later vie for the presidency.]

    When Otieno Heavy D. is in your corner when the political waters enter the rapids and he decides to do his thinking, the raft will read the perils well. That was his reputation as a KANU hawk. And it warned us as young men, that Arap Moi was a dangerous opponent. He could pick the best to be beside him. Otieno Saitoti Kibaki, brainy. Nicolas Biwott and Sankuli, pure cold-blood capos.

    Nevertheless I was surprised to see him break cover and shine at the signing ceremony of CORD. When the work is done, this grand-chess-master of yester likes to take a backseat and enjoy the results at a distance. And a cautious man, one rarely finds him with a self-indulgent smile on his public face. That is, never a triumphalism before the boat is anchored at shore safe.

    PS: Good news: the moment the CORD deal was signed and Kalonzo roped in, within a day ODM membership surged in some ‘hitherto’ surrendered areas, and going to press as of now, they will not be any reserved Jubilee seats in the capital area!

    The trick now for ODM is to make sure Kalonzo does not perform his special act, see Ngilu.

    ==

    • Tnk,
      At the signing of the pact Kalonzo said that the negotiations had taken one month. In otherwords, it was initiated long before the URP/TNA pact signing. One can argue that the CORD agreement was not triggered by fear of TNA/URP/UDF “collision”.

      For all I know is that Dalmas Otieno is a wheeler dealer. But more than that he is a sharp and collected guy who knows which side of the bread is buttered. Former MP Joe Khamisi describes him as an “intense thinker”. I also know that he was part of the team that brokered the deal between ODM and Wiper. That he was the brain behind the deal could be true or not. Some people give that credit to Muthama of Wiper.

      We can conclusively say that the picture that has been painted above is based on street speculation and gutter rumors.

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