I have come to the realization that the coalition of URP/TNA masks disturbing dissonance at its core which reveals Ruto’s capacity for the cunning (am I giving him too much credit here-I wonder). Although Ruto and Uhuru are tied at the heap with the “small” matter of the ICC, the former is not totally unaware of the historical divide between their respective supporters on the land question. Neither are they and their “support bases” oblivious of the events of 2007/2008 which overwhelmingly pitted them against each other. Add to these, the undercurrent of resistance to URP/TNA pact among sections of Ruto’s supporters and you have a situation of polarity within the coalition.
One of the two is playing the other and it seems to me that Ruto (insidiously) has an upper hand particularly with the entry of Mudamba’s UDF, complete with a compulsion that the group’s flag bearer will have to be nominated by delegates drawn from the three parties. My rationale for arguing thus resides in the knowledge and belief that most URP delegates will find a convenient path to voting for Mudavadi during the nomination process without appearing to reject Uhuru out rightly. From the outset then, Mudavadi and Ruto have an advantage over Uhuru the coalition’s flag bearer nomination.
If my conjecture is bankable, one will understand why the TNA wing of the coalition is uneasy about Mudavadi. The reasons for unease go beyond the claims of Statehouse machinations, to include genuine fears that most UDF and URP supporters would rather not have Uhuru succeeding Kibaki for historical and ethnic reasons. They fear that the nominations present a fairly acceptable platform for rejecting Uhuru. They (TNA brigade) would rather the “roads lead to Bondo” if Uhuru is outsmarted by URP/UDF.
I don’t know whether to be more appalled by Mudamba’s indecisiveness and gladness to be of use, or Ruto’s cynically deceptive but calculating attitude towards Uhuru and shocked at Uhuru’s apparent complacebcy that he is in control of that coalition whereas he is on a very treacherous path towards being auctioned by the Ruto/UDF axis. IN my view, Uhuru has literally bought snake oil by accepting to go along with the nomination strategy (which I am willing to bet must have been Ruto’s idea in the first place)