Siaya County Race

From a net analyst

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35 comments on “Siaya County Race

    • Now that Rasanga has won the elections, where is his master plan for siaya?
      Does anyone have access to this governor to engage him directly?

      • Rasanga claims they have come up with something called Strategic Plan which they produced after some two conferences. It is not very smart that the details of that plan have not been made public so that Siaya residents can give their feedback. It is also very likely that the plan was developed without much input from the public.

        Generally most of the high sounding plans whether it is Machakos, Kiambu or Mombasa etc are pretty much cooked up by a few technocrats working with governors. They are not even discussed and agreed upon in the local assemblies. Most of them are make believe nonsense.

        Then we have the so called investment conferences where ridiculous amounts of money are announced as projected investments. One in Embu recently came up with the figure of Kshs 441 billion. Homa Bay has now come with Kshs 560 billion. They are good concepts but they are exaggerated balloons which make no sense.

        You have to start with the basics. Infrastructure is the starting point. Roads and waterways are key in Nyanza and the western region stretching to Eldoret and Nakuru in the Rift Valley region. Those options are there. They are doable. How are products from Homa Bay, Siaya, Kakamega, Busia, Eldoret, Nakuru etc going to be sold to the national and foreign markets? Start there and produce good quality stuff?

        Sell it at home and everywhere. That is the doctrine of development. Making it work is another matter. It is work.

        The counties are so far a big joke. The only thing happening for real is the governors and their colleagues are swimming in cash like there is no tomorrow.

        Personally I am headed home by Nov. 16, 2013. I have some matters to handle in Nairobi with the High court regarding the Nyayo house torture industry. I have taken the bloody government to court and the battle will be in court. I am ready for it. That takes place on Nov. 21. I expect to be done in a few days then I will spend the rest of the time in Siaya like I do all the time. I am a village kind of guy.

        I am going to get a hold of Rasanga by every means possible and talk to him. Last time I was there which was last year we came up with a full range of things we want to see in the strategic plan. Public health and sanitation was on top of the list because the folks I was working with are already doing a lot in that area. I don’t know if anybody here has heard about “Plumbers Without Borders”. It is doing a lot of work in Kenya and Southern Sudan and it is headed by Eng. Auma Wasinda who is a long time comrade of mine. He is from Siaya.

        Urban planners will tell you development of urban centres start with good sewage systems and healthy sanitation plans. Same thing with rural communities. Folks cannot shit in the bush or those nasty pit latrines forever. Lets figure out where to safely put our shit and we are on our way to good health and great development. Public health is public wealth. That is what I have always believed in. It is necessary and very doable. We know that.

        Then we have health needs in general. Incidentally Oduol’s running mate Steve Scott Ondiek has done some amazing work in Bondo with regard to building community health centre. It is a model we need to look at very seriously. Ondiek’s health facility in Matangwe has state of the art facilities. Ondiek is also a Canadian citizen who came to Canada as a young boy having been adopted by a Canadian family. I had great discussions with Steve Ondiek at his home which is right next to Matangwe Health centre.

        We have tons of ideas on improving health and to me the centre piece has to be building mobile health capacity. No. It is not about Tuju’s truck parked outside his house. My concept is to build a system where citizens who are sick can call the health centre and have nurses and medical staff sent to where they are on bike or apiko.

        Everybody down there has a cell phone and the county can buy 100 motor bikes. KEMRI is already doing something close to that in Bondo and parts of Nyanza. Their headquarters is in Kisian and they are funded by USAID. The problem is their work is limited to HIV issues and not the full range of health needs of the population.

        Then we need to address road systems within the county connecting to the major roads. The way to do that is buy road building equipments get some engineers to design stuff and get local folks to work on these roads and get paid. The Chinese are not going to build village roads for us.

        Next is industrialisation initiatives. People are tired of selling maize and beans and throwing away fruits which we cannot even process into juice. We drink coloured water from Thika. We don’t have to.

        Then we need to handle the construction industry at the county level. When I was in Bondo last year, one thing I learnt is that the biggest industry down there, the biggest employer of people and mainly young people is the construction industry.

        I was astonished to see that there are hardware stores back to back in every corner of Bondo town. People are building new homes, they are building schools and everything in between. Construction is a big deal. We have to figure out what to do to make that industry work for local residents.

        My advice to my friends out here and at home. Work together and build construction companies. For the county, it would be advisable to build non profit construction outfits to absorb the youth to get to work. It is doable. We can get into the details later.

        We have education issues starting from grade one all the way. Then water starting with the best use of that huge lake water, water harvesting and basically making the best use of water available to the residents of Siaya county. Lake Victoria hugs Siaya county. That is not a small matter. Plus Siaya county has to invest in bore hole water system which has great potential in the area. We have water and we need it. Sure enough.

        Last I will mention tree and fruit planting. I am so passionate about that because that is my main investment in Siaya. It is shockingly profitable. The potential to take it to the schools is beyond great.

        Let me say something here again about Steve Scott Ondiek, my buddy in Matangwe. He has started something I have always dreamt of. In Matangwe primary school they have established a program for school kids to set up tree nurseries that could have immense commercial prospects. I would want that kind of thing in every school in Siaya. It is easily doable and there are add ons we could pur.

        I will not talk about dairy farming in Siaya today. It has tremendous potential and it is happening in Siaya as we speak. I have friends who have become dairy farmers in Siaya and I will tell you it is so much work but it pays.

        Those are just a few things.

        I intend to get in touch with my buddy Oduor Ong’wen to see how we can work with this Rasanga guy to put Siaya on course to take full advantage of devolution. It is embarrassing that Siaya had to return 100 million bucks to the Treasury having failed to use it.

        There is a lot of work to be done down there. It shall be done. We should not allow governors to become State House which just dictates things. We should also be very careful with pompous announcements and make believe nonsense from governors. They are going to look busy doing nothing. That is worse than doing nothing.

      • Adongo,
        If you hear a person talking about a strategic plan that no one has seen then most likely there is none. Leaders are not judged by their strategic plans but implementation of the same, if its sound.

        Let me be blunt Rasanga has done nothing in Siaya since being elected. Thats the truth.

      • Adongo,
        Thanks for the update and that was a smart plan you have. By the way, I know Matangwe very well and how its has impacted in the surrounding area. I hope that you can get hold of Rasanga then and only then we will we know what he has in plan. So take it upon yourself to do that

      • There seem to be many of these so-called big deals happening in Kenya but I suspect that they are just vague MoUs. Even at the national level Uhuru was said to have come back from China with Sh. 425 billion but later it turned out that the only solid thing was about Sh. 16 billion of loans.

        What people should consider is what are the actual needs of the populace and what has been their input to any big plans.

    • Mzee I have just updated the post. Read it again in full so you can see where I think we need to go with this. These governors are small people. We have to tell them what to do. I also think there is a lot of empty talk in the counties with ridiculous announcements and no meat to it. But check my piece down there.

  1. So where is the siaya re-election going? I understand that Oduol is campaigning very hard. I wonder if ODM is doing what it should do. Does anyone know whats up?

  2. Here’s Oduor O’ngwen comment on the contentious nominations:

    I wish to correct the impression created by The Star newspaper that Cornel Rasanga was nominated to run for Siaya County Governor after the other contestants, including me stepped down for him. The truth is that after two days of attempts to build consensus among the five candidates comprising Rasanga,William Oduol, Elisha Odhiambo, Carey Orege and me,there was deadlock as no candidate was willing to step down. The only concession was that all candidates made a commitment to accept the verdict of the party when it picked the flag bearer. the five of us then appeared before ODM’s National Elections Board yesterday morning after which I am informed the board recommended to the National Executive Committee (NEC) that I be nominated as the candidate. NEC later overturned this via vote by members. I did not agree with this decision but I respect it as it was done in accordance with the party constitution and Election and Nomination Rules.

    • Engineer Carey Orege who was a favourite when the process started also weighs in:

      Following the nomination of Cornel Rasanga as the ODM Candidate in the Siaya Gubernatorial race by the ODM National Elections Board, I would like to make it crystal clear that I did NOT step down from the race in favour of Rasanga or any other candidate. There was no consensus reached on who the party candidate would be and the NEB make its own decision in that light. I however reiterate my commitment and support for the party and respect the decision made.

    • I was informed of the boardroom attempt at consensus regarding the upcoming gubernatorial election – an initiative fronted by concerned intellectuals from Siaya – which came crushing down. It is very unfortunate –I’ll chip in a little later!

      • `
        Very poor ODM calculus: Hoping the masses don’t see it!

        What is claimed to be an attempt at a credible political proposal by concerned intellectuals from Siaya – who proposed the fronting (by consensus) of a neutral but competent candidate (possibly an alternative to both William Oduol and Dr. Oburu Odinga’s hand-picked Cornell Rasanga) all came crushing down at the hands of ODM’s NEC –obviously kow-towing to the whims of Dr. Oburu Odinga.

        Oduor Ong’wen claims he was picked by the NEB but eventually turned down by the NEC. Eng. Carey Orege claims there was no consensus arrived (a statement contradicted by other private and credible sources who in fact think he was a pawn in a clever game). What is clear is that the NEC has picked Cornell Rasanga as vigorously pushed by Oburu.

        Why was a primary nomination not held in Siaya (in the first place) for this important gubernatorial seat?

        Be your own judge. My hitch tells me it was purely out of paranoia from Dr. Oburu Odinga, period! Paranoia that his former popular rival William Oduol, would win the primary!

        While compelling arguments were made concerning the exorbitant cost of holding a primary and the real possibility of primary infiltration by political competitors in state (Jubilee), it appears there were other motivations. Besides a personal ego bruise, no one can argue that Dr. Oburu’s vain and futile campaigns in Ugenya, Alego, and Gem during the last primaries – which revealed open rejection – may have not left possible paranoia (in Oburu’s mind) that a young, popular, and successful governor from the populous Alego may in fact put the last nail into the coffin of his future (& still burning) political ambition to lead Siaya. Hypothetically speaking, if a young man like William Oduol would succeed in transforming Siaya, such action could set precedent for future domination of this county seat – which automatically signals the death-knell of simmering ambitions of the likes of Oburu. Therefore, the likes of Oduol had to be kept off the governor’s mansion at all cost.

        This is probably what surreptitiously informed the NEC intrigues and acrobatics which were choreographed along clan politics – to specifically lock out credible alternatives that came forward. The NEC has specifically made it clear it has no time for credible, competent, alternative candidates from Ugenya (like Oduor Ong’wen, Elkana Odembo). Just like Alego’s Oduol, the latter are superior gubernatorial quality than the inept, unimaginative, short-sighted stooge called Cornell Rasanga. One could even add Gem into the conundrum if Elisha Odhiambo’s candidacy is taken seriously.

        Truth be told – investing in a culture of sullied politics (played by the likes of Dr. Oburu Odinga) only weakens ODM’s grassroots. Even courts have warned against this dirty culture of targeting known popular ODM members (& loyal Raila Odinga supporters) and roguishly painting them TNA moles when convenient, or invoking clan eligibility to lock out other potential. Credible political potential is destroyed and literally crushed for merely expressing ambition. It is such muck and grime that leads to cynicism in Nyanza politics – where great potential is quickly turned into smithereens. Professionals squirm at even contemplating entering Kenya’s brutal political arena.

        In my humble opinion, Siaya county has been held hostage by a sulking and grumpy old man called Oburu Odinga – whose ego was heavily bruised in the last primaries. He was denied being BOTH senator and governor and is surely fighting back – literally forcing through a back window, a hot camel’s head (in the form of Rasanga) into the cool gubernatorial tent. FORCE is the operating word here.

        Oburu acting through ODM’s NEC must be hoping the masses don’t decode this political encryption. They must be hoping they succeeded in cooling off possible rebellion from Alego by cajoling them with the inept Rasanga. The hope is that Alego voters would readily accept an imposed Alego clansman (Rasanga) rather than their own preferred Alego clansman. The hope is that majority Siaya voters believe that William Oduol is a TNA mole and a serial wife batterer. I do not know whether the latter charge is true — and would want it fully explored through the courts. Oburu’s sincere hope is that when his younger popular brother finally arrives for the campaigns – this entire matter will all be put to rest. After all, haven’t Oduor Ong’wen and Carey Orege both made statements either in “respect” or “support” of the NEC decision? Being an older brother can actually be cashed through the political bank of entitlement.

      • Job

        I heard grumbling voices on social media about the purported stranglehold Ayang Nyongo, Oburu Odinga and Jakoyo Midiwo have over the ODM NEC.

        Some of those allegations are grossly exaggerated. Assume that they are true, dont you think Raila Odinga also then deserves some blame here, being after all the party leader? What about the other members of NEC and NEB, are they just figure heads?

        Why involve the ODM-NEB and later have an extended sitting of the NEC if the three are still going to decide anyway?

        Lobbying for positions is natural and acceptable in politics so long as they do not usurp official party resolutions. What if I told you Engineer Carey Orege was a project fronted by Ida Odinga who does not see eye to eye with Oburu politically?

        By the way, in nominating Rasanga, it was not a decision limited to ODM honchos but that arrived at by CORD summit which involves very senior personalities from FORD-K, WDP and other coalition parties. They decided to go with Kalembe Ndile (TIP) for Kibwezi West, an area which is predominantly WDP. I did not hear any complaints from Wiper camp as am hearing from ODM camp! So what is wrong with ODM side?

        While it could be true some leaders canvassed for Rasanga, no one should be blamed if they do not have god fathers to campaign for them.

        As regards the decision to avoid the primaries, we have to take into consideration that this by-election was occasioned by a third party election petition as opposed to death or other reason caused by the incumbent. Besides this, there are also genuine concerns for voter apathy.

        I maintain that Oduol shall be floored by Rasanga in this by-election and not for reasons that you outline in your response.

      • Job,
        Lets face it. Had the candidates not agreed to go for the seat via boardroom consensus we would have probably seen a grueling nomination process. The ODM constitution allows for picking a candidate in the above manner so no law was broken. That to me is the main issue here.

        The second issue is wether Rasanga was the best candidate. We all agree that he is not because no one knows what he has been doing for the few months he has been governor. Nor does he have any other tract record to talk home about. If its true that Oburu fears a younger leader, I believe that Oduol cannot be that young leader given that Oduor, Rege and Odembo were all in the mix. The three are more dynamic and are likely to give Oburu much more headache than Oduol.

        I cant claim that I have any inside information on what happened but Oduol is just another unknown quantity who has never participated in any known developmental issues in Siaya county.

        The good things is that he is not locked out and has another ticket to run on but his defeat is imminent and its going to be major. He wont come close to the percentage votes he got in the last elections.

    • phil & Job,

      I happen to know both Carey Orege and Oduor Ong’wen personally. Eng. Orege is well known to Bondo folks. His family has been involved in all sorts of business in Bondo town. His brother and his wife are well known medical practitioners (high end physicians at every level) and had the decency to open one of the best medical facilities in Bondo town. They are expanding it in a new state of the art facility. Dr. Orege was my mother’s physician for years. I believe the Orege physicians stretched her life a little but the thing I love the most is they made her live a good life with quality medicare. My father is the one who told me he doesn’t need a doctor. I think that old soldier probably saw a doctor two or three times in all his life and I don’t remember seeing him sick.

      The father of the Oreges started the ever famous Bondo West End Hotel. That is an office for many Bondo politicians. So the Oreges are big time in Bondo and people respect them but I don’t know if Carey could carry the seat.

      As for Ong’wen, that is my buddy from Nyayo House. He is a great friend of mine. But it is his mind that I respect the most, forget the personal friendship. Oduor has emerged as a top of the line one man think tank. He is supper smart and works with leading experts in regional economic development plans and strategies. He would bring a new level of thinking and planning in the governor’s office. As far as I know he is the best for that office.

      Under the circumstances I would accept Mzee’s proposal that he runs as a running mate of sorts. Rasanga can do the politicking and Oduor can do the work on the ground. He is more than capable of helping to transform the way things are done down there.

      But job is right, people like Oburu may not like the likes of Ong’wen. They never liked him much when he was one of Raila’s closest aides. Ong’wen often told them off when they muddied the water with cheap senseless politics. ODM top leadership also may have issues with Ong’wen because he often advised Raila to stop listening to political deadwoods and listen to the voices at the grassroot level. Ong’wen battled with ODM to take things like ID cards and voter registration very seriously instead of depending on big rallies. They never listened to him but he did a lot of the heavy lifting down there.

      Beating Oduol is going to be the easy part. What we need is new thinking and a mindset to transform that county to make it one of the best within the next five years. Old run of the mill politics will not achieve that. Rasanga is just rolling with the wind. Nobody seems to know what is going on in that county. Even Elkanah Odembo should be recruited in one way or the other to work in the county. He has massive networks and skills that would help distinguish Siaya from the porojo politics and zero development that we will get with kawaida politicians. These are rare assets. If we don’t use them, somebody else will.

      I might be heading home soon. My case with the Nyayo House torturers is up and my lawyer has asked me to come down. On Nov. 21, 2013 I will be in the courtroom (not ICC) face to face with Githu Muigai or one of his mandarins. This time the young gun won’t make it there and he is pretty pissed off about that. But he is in school and actually they will be roaming around in New York with his classmates doing some school project and costing me a lot of money.

      When I am down there I am going to make it my business to put my head around the Siaya county assembly and what they are up to. There is a lot of work to be done down there but we need a clear vision and strategic plan. That is what I am interested in. The other fitinas are useless.

  3. Adongo,
    Oduol was just being clever by half. Cutting a deal with ODM while at the same time having a another party ticket in his back pocket. Seems that ODM smoked him out.

    As you say, little is known about Rasanga but Oduol is also an unknown quantity. I don’t know what this fella had done to warranty the position of governor. To me, he is just one of those guys trying their luck.

    What we must understand is that politics in Kenya has become a business to some. Oduol could be doing a roaring business. So I don’t have sympathy for him afterall its said that he is heading towards Jubilee and Im not a supporter of that coalition.

    Ok, the people of Siaya did not like Oburu Odinga and would not have elected him but the way Oduol bad mouthed him even after the old man had pulled out of the race disgusted many. This is something that Oduol will never recover from.

    ODM has a chance a giving Rasanga some experts to assist him in running the county. How about Oduor as his deputy? This would bring the much need expertise.

  4. Cornel Amoth Rasanga has no political credentials worth talking about. He quit his job as Board Secretary to the Public Procurement Oversight Authority late in 2012 to start campaigns for Siaya County Govenor and in those days he stood no chance against well established candidates who had also expressed an interest in the seat.

    Although he was a qualified lawyer and unlike Oduol who excelled in private sector, Rasanga worked in various government departments as a civil servants for more than 30 years.

    He surprised many when he emerged a credible 3rd behind Oburu and Oduol in the initial ODM nominations. I think he has laid down very effective networks across the county and is not swayed by the high voltage regional politics.

    Oduol portends little threat to Rasanga this time around because the CORD coalition is rallying behind one candidate so splitting of votes is no longer a factor. Oduol is also having personal problems with wife and daughter reporting him to police for domestic violence. I think he has a case pending in court. Oduol also has been bad mouthing ODM and its leadership and this will not earn him any friends in the county. Oduol is in for a political lesson of his life.

  5. The by-election for Siaya County is already gazetted and returning officers appointed. The people of Siaya County have another chance to elect a Governor and his/her deputy on 17th October 2013. This is one by-election CORD coalition, more specifically the Orange Democratic Movement, cannot afford to lose thus the nomination process has to be handled with utmost care to avert a fall out that may benefit Jubilee coalition.

    William Oduol who successfully petitioned the election of ODM’s Cornel Rasanga is said to be keen to return to ODM. What is more, he is willing to sacrifice his candidature to support the ODM candidate nominated fairly. The ODM is keen to forge a united bid for this by-election in what is perhaps the most strategic county for ODM in larger Nyanza.

    News is that the ODM party leadership has been holding consultative meetings among all the interested candidates including Rasanga, Oduol and new comers Engineer Carey Orege and Oduor On’gwen trying to balance out the best Governor and running mate combination. These intensive pre-poll pact talks are being chaired by no less a person than Raila Odinga.

    Constituency politics also come into play since Ugenya Constituency already has Senator and Gem Constituency has Women Representative position, that automatically knocks out the two constituencies offering candidates (however popular) to the Gubernatorial by-election. That partly explains why Balozi Elkanah Odembo of Ugenya (the immediate former Kenya Ambassador to USA) could not offer his candidature despite spirited attempts to have him run by some party stalwarts.

    Consensus has been reached and we now expect a candidate and running mate to be unveiled at any time.

    The main opposition is not known yet, Malik Obama (President Obama’s brother) has not confirmed his interest after losing miserably during the initial election where he run as an indepedent.

    Within the Jubilee Coalition, URP was rumoured to be willing to present a credible candidate to run against the ODM/CORD candidate but so far there has been no announcement leading to speculation that they were waiting for a fall out in ODM nominations so as to pounce on the strongest losing candidate (read William Oduol).

    • The ODM has formally unveiled immediate former Siaya County Governor Cornel Rasanga as its flag bearer for the 17th Oct by-election.

      Minutes after this announcement, and quite predictably, William Oduol (amongst the other four potential candidates!) has reneged on his own undertaking to support any candidate nominated from the consensus building talks initiated by ODM leadership in which he participated voluntarily and extensively for well over two weeks.

      Oduol announced to his facebook followers : “Want to let you all know that we are still in the race, we have not been locked out. Our friends can try but we are smarter and had made contingency arrangements”

      This statement underlines the fact that Oduol was participating in ODM talks while holding membership of another political party, having cohabited in another coalition since March 2013, a ticket which he would use to run should he not be the ODM nominee agreed on by consensus.

      Rasanga was handed the ticket mostly on the basis of having initiated an attractive 5 year strategic plan for Siaya County that is already in its infancy stages and the panel including other potential competitors were in general agreement with the feasibility to support continuity rather than re-start a process which is already running late by one year (Next general election is in August 2017).

      Unlike the general elections which come with its own distractions, a by-election has totally different dynamics and rebel Oduol must brace for a bruising contest in what is considered to be an ODM stronghold.

      CORD is expected to unveil its campaign program shortly.

    • Phil,
      Thanks for the above.
      All I know that Oduol will be beaten clean this time around. He will get some votes in his own backyard but that is about it. I wonder what Oduol was doing going back to ODM after mounting a successful campaign. It was always going to be very difficult to give Oduol the ticket and sideline Rasanga.

      May the contest begin.

      • Folks,

        As a Siaya resident who talks to Siaya people almost daily I attest to the fact that a Rasanga -v-Oduol contest is a healthy thing. There is this myth being spread by some that Oduol is some kind of a political heavy weight in Siaya and ODM needs to baby sit him. That is nonsense. In the actual election Oduol was beaten fair and square but he got a break based on things like his picture was attached to Uhuru’s and that Jakoyo Midiwo etc called him names. The man lost and will lose again.

        My take during the last election was that at first Oduol had a big following. Nobody was going to stand Oburu as governor. So Oduol got a break then he got all wired up and ODM went with Rasanga Amoth also from Alego. I personally don’t know who this Rasanga is but the ODM strategy was that Alego folks will vote in a rebellion if they feel that they were being sidelined.

        Is Rasanga a good politician? I don’t know. When I talked to folks a few weeks ago there was the idea that there were other contenders including Rarieda M.P Gumbo and then there was Elkana Odembo who with his smarts and experience would make a fantastic governor. But regional politics is such that another Gem candidate would be unfair to other areas. My own best candidate would be Oduor Ong’wen who in my opinion is one of the brightest development experts in the nation today. He is from Ugenya I believe.

        But Rasanga is fine. If he has come up with a strategic development plan that is even better. ODM needs to put boots on the ground and sweep this election clean and let Oduol find something else to do.

  6. Oduol speaks.
    Still supports Raila inspite of what happened.

    If ODM was smart it would make the most out of this gentleman by using him for mobilizing people of Siaya to vote on March.

    • Mzee

      Things are moving very fast.

      Oduol whom you see on that video is not the Oduol on social media today.

      It seems William Oduol has secured a party ticket to run and is due to make an announcement at Ahindi Gardens (Siaya Town) this Friday. Maybe one of the Jubilee constituent parties has backdated a certificate and handed it to him am not sure.

      I remember a similar scenario in 2007 when Steve Mwanga defected to KADDU to challenge ODM’s James orengo in the Ugenya parliamentary seat. It was a disastrous run for Mwanga who had thought he was popular with the masses as the Orange euphoria swept away candidates from other parties. Jubilee because if FORD-K, FDP or WDP issues a ticket to Oduol, I believe they would be in violation of CORD pre-election agreement.

      Personally, I will welcome his candidature but would not vote for him so long as he is outside ODM.

      • Phil,
        This is the problem with greed.
        Sometimes popularity can get into peoples heads.
        Truth be told he will be beaten to a pulp.
        Thats all I can say for now but lets wait for that announcement.
        Joining Jubilee is suicidal.

      • nokjnr,
        It does not matter if he moves to SDP, he will still be beaten.
        The Alego votes only can not make him governor.
        What the man does not understand is that its Oburu that people had a problem with. This does not translate to love for Oduol. Big mistake if he even tries.
        Bank that.

    • Mzee
      Am not familiar with the local politics of Siaya. But don’t you presume that due to what happened there will still be momentum on the side of Oduol. Based on

      1. The Candidate who was finally chosen ; Okanja ; is he strong at all
      2. Before the Nominations you and phil had some interesting debate about the state of Siaya politics.
      3. The people of Siaya may reward Oduol for felling Oburu.

      All in the pretex of whether he has some Nomination either from SDP or some other party.

  7. @BlogAdmin, is the slideshow still there? I may be missing it at my end. [ slideshow only works in the main post and not in comments – Blog Admin]

    @Mzee, All that Oburru Odinga needs to do is to convince the Ugenya, Ugunja and Alego axis to vote for him.

    My recent tour of the county reveals these constituencies are most hostile to his candidature and for good reason, forcing James Orengo to avoid publicly endorsing Oburu for Governor. A rally organised by Orengo where MPs from the wider Luo Nyanza came to endorse Oburu ended without any endorsement after residents strongly resisted attempts to impose Oburu on voters. The message from the ground is clear.

    What makes it worse is that Oburu has not hidden the fact that he has sponsored a large group of aspiring MPs and county representatives in a bid to popularise his gubernatorial bid. Unfortunately for him, in the most constituencies of the county, any candidate perceived to be aligned to Oburu is as good as a failed aspirant. Oburu has also bought off all but one of the gubernatorial competitors.

    From the new year, Oburu and his agents have embarked on an intensive campaign to paint Dr. William Oduol as a TNA (Uhuru Kenyatta) stooge. Oburu is also aggressive in holding frequent meetings with elders, women leaders and other opinion shapers in these constituencies so as to overturn Dr. Oduol popularity in the areas that Oburu is unpopular. As matters are it is unlikely Oburu can defeat him in a free and fair nomination exercise.

    Regional balance in county politics does not favour Oburu since Orengo (from Ugenya/Ugunja) is already guaranteed the Senatorial position, whilst Alego, where Oduol comes from want the governor insisting their people cannot be used as ladders to leadership as their have their own sons and daughters who are worthy of county leadership. The women rep position is also a straight forward contest between Mrs. Ondiek (Ugenya), Mrs Ombaka (Gem) and Mrs. Awitta (Ugenya).

    Add that to the fact that in the years Raila has been in government, most government facilitated development seems to have headed the Bondo way, where am told there is quiet lobbying for an airport to be built in the area regardless to the close proximity to Kisumu International Airport. Mention the bondo university. Or the Bondo – Siaya tarmac road which is OK on the Bondo side, but remains uncompleted on the Alego/Ugenya side, ostensibly for lack of funds and ODM controls the Roads ministry. It does not make sense and the Prime Minister had better steer clear of Siaya County politics lest both Orengo and Oburu lose to a protest vote.

    • Phil,
      It won’t be very easy for Dr. Oburu to convince the Ugenya/Alego/Ugunja axis since they are determined to go into the race as a block. Apart from that they have the very popular Oduol whom they are supporting.

      It’s interesting that the younger Orengo is the one carrying Oburu in his wings trying to convince people to make him governor. One can say that Orengo is campaigning for Oburu more than he is for himself. Somehow he feels guilty and responsible that the old man is going to be beaten. They have now devised a tactic of campaigning together which in my opinion is very dangerous for Orengo because people might end up turning against both.

      Even though everybody should have the right to vie for any position, the fact that four members of the Odinga family are vying for one or the other seat has complicated matters for Oburu. Dr. Oburu. Ruth and Omondi Odinga might be rejected by voters on account of being Railas siblings. People believe that Raila deserves the presidency because of what he has done and continue doing for the country but they feel that the other Odingas, (rightly or falsely) are riding on RAO back and they don’t like it.

      But the greatest problem for Dr. Oburu is that his base, which is Bondo is not completely “in love” with him. He therefore feels vulnerable as far as numbers are concerned. That’s why he has roped in akina Midiwo to help him in Gem. But even here there, its an uphill task. Should the nominations be free and fair without the interference from the party headquarters Oburu will be defeated.

      • People do not choose where to be born. Raila’s presidential quest is irrelevant to eithe Oburu’s or Ruth’s ambitions to be governors. This is devolved government.

        When they were younger, the Odinga family suffered politicla persecution. It would be tragic to discriminate them on basis of their family name rather than on their own individual credentials.

        The latest rumour is that Dr. Oduol may be stepping down in favour of Oburu. Let’s wait and see because that may open the doors for a very unlikely Siaya governor in the name of Malik Obama. Should he also drop his bid because his brother is US President?

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