MARS GROUP KENYA OPENS ACCESS TO 2013 ELECTION WEB PORTAL

I thought this is going to be very important especially on Monday when results start trickling in at the national tallying centre.

KNOW WHO YOU ARE VOTING FOR, BEFORE YOU CAST YOUR VOTE!

Mars Group Kenya has officially opened public access to our Kenya Elections 2013 web portal.  It is part of our Leadership, Governance & Accountability Portal and can be accessed via http://election2013.marsgroupkenya.org or directly from our home page www.marsgroupkenya.org

 

Search for information:

Do you know the candidates offering themselves at the ballot? What are my options? Who is running for MCA? Who is running for MP? Who is running for Women rep? Who is running for Governor? Who is running for Senator? Who is running for President? The web portal allows users to search by county, constituency and by ward for a list of all candidates nominated by the Independent Boundaries & Elections Commission (IEBC).

We offer it as a free resource as our contribution to free, fair and peaceful elections.

The portal contains the details of all candidates running for the positions of President, Governor, Senator, Member of Parliament, Women’s Representative and Member of the County Assembly.

Log in before you cast your vote:

Log in now, and research before you cast your vote on Monday 4th March 2013.  Know your candidates, check their backgrounds, read all media coverage of their campaigns before you cast your vote.

See the results as they come in:

The portal will also post the live provisional results from the IEBC as we receive them. One will be able to monitor their candidates at all positions as well as ward, constituency, county and national tallies for all political parties.

It is now decision time.  Make informed decisions on March 4th 2013.

Mars Group Kenya

Watching out for you – 27-Feb-13

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Mars Group Kenya operates one of the largest databases of governance information in Kenya, focusing on corruption in the executive, legislative and judiciary branches of government, as well as on accountability and civic education.  Our mission is to create the largest digital database of governance information in Kenya for archiving and indexing.

In 2007, Mars Group was the only organisation able to capture the entire media coverage of the elections and the post-election violence on an online platform.

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By einstein Posted in kenya

95 comments on “MARS GROUP KENYA OPENS ACCESS TO 2013 ELECTION WEB PORTAL

  1. Oh Mr. ‘Safe Pair of Hands’ Mudavadi, oh Mr. ‘Wobbler’ Wamalwa!! What a duo!!

    Mudavadi gets green light to talk with Jubilee on post-poll coalition

    “Deputy Prime Minister Musalia Mudavadi is said to have been given a go ahead by Amani alliance to start negotiations with President-elect Uhuru Kenyatta to be part of Jubilee government.

    The deal includes Amani alliance principal and Justice minister Eugene Wamalwa’s bid to negotiate for the position of Speaker in the post-election coalition.”

    http://standardmedia.co.ke/?articleID=2000079173&story_title=Kenya-Mudavadi-gets-green-light-to-talk-with-Jubilee-on-post-poll-coalition

  2. Well regarding the voter suppression in Kilifi county, I received a bit more information. I was on the ground for a few days. These guys are not very smart. IEBC officials were kidnapped and I can tell you for free, the guys perpetrating the violence were not the MRC. They were getting directions from a source, the striking fact is that they couldn’t speak a word of any of the Mijikenda dialects. They could only communicate in broken Swahili and an ‘upcountry language’.

    Second, from the sources on the ground the body count of the cops was higher than the count that was made public. What would be the interest of keeping that figure low?

    Third, for anyone with a knowledge of the coast militia, they would know that their weapons of choice have for long been bows and arrows. The goons that disrupted the elections were armed with pangas.

    Fourth, after the killings, the GSU were deployed to Kilifi. The goons have already taken off, but the real intention of the GSU is to silence the residents. If you say anything negative about the attacks and it gets to the attention of the officers, you are promptly arrested. This is a ploy to silence the people of Kilifi.

    The attacks in Kilifi and Jomvu kuu were not perpetrated by the MRC. The truth of the matter is a lot more sinister. I don’t think we will get to the botton of it in the current ‘peace’ offensive.

    • siguda,

      Good thing you guys are keeping tabs on things down there. The Kilifi story will come out. There is suspicion that this was one of Kimemia’s operations. After what we saw the Baragoi story and the now semi-disappeared Waiganjo nothing should surprise us. In that operation 50 or so cops were killed, they pretended they were investigating what happened and then the Waiganjo mess broke up.

      The Baragoi murders were soon forgotten and buried. If they can do that kind of thing, why would a few police folks dead in Kilifi worry them if it is for a bigger course. Kilifi was huge for them with about 320,000 registered voters. Cut off half of that as they did and your rigging mission becomes less burdensome.

      What I know for a fact is that even some of my closest buddies who are inside the CORD nerve centre have warned me to be very careful what I email, what I say etc. Their phones are being tapped, their e-mails are being hacked and in fact the NSIS is letting them know very well that they are being monitored around the clock. Luckily nobody is afraid.

      This election petition may turn out to be the biggest assault on the forces of darkness in decades. It could unearth some filth that will stink for a generation to come and save the nation from a very well planned descent into an era repression.

      The first mask is falling off. The “peace” offensive was carefully clothed as an attempt to save Kenya from another PEV and many people bought into it but in a country like Kenya it is hard to put a lid in everything. So the questions are being raised. Thank god for the petition, Kenyans are now asking questions and they are only going to get louder.

      Then the attempt to portray Uhuru as already in charge of the country will run into its own problems. Already we see delegations being herded to come and swear allegiance to the king. I am surprised my friends like Miguna who were reported to have been in Nairobi to support Uhuru are not trooping to Gatundu with delegations to sing to Uhuru. That used to be the norm with Kenyatta and later Moi. Everyday there will be delegations of some hungry folks being herded to Gatundu or Kabarak. In the Moi era it was a big money maker for University students. That may resume very soon.

      In the US they have the likes of Jendayi Frazer doing the beat for Uhuru. Jendayi was telling President Obama to recognize Uhuru immediately because he is pro-Western and US interests are more important than the ICC case. This is the same Jenndayi Frazer who worked for President Bush, who launched a war that has killed hundreds of thousands of people around the globe to avenge the death of 3,000 Americans in New York. What would the US do if 1,300 of its citizens were murdered in cold blood. Would they invite the suspected killer to be their president. No, they would electrocute them in a second, after a court trial of course. In Kenya they want us to embrace such monsters as our beloved leaders.

      There is also a very determined campaign to lie to Kenyans that the ICC has collapsed and it was just a bunch of liars who were being used to fix Uhuru. Never mind that Kenyans show children roasted in their homes by Uhuru’s thugs. All that is now being whitewashed into things that never happened. They were just creations of Uhuru’s enemies.

      In the internet, chauvinists and tribalists have shed all pretenses they had before and are running amok. Interestingly there is reasonable restraint for the Kalenjin contingent but Kikuyu chauvinists are on a tear. Read the Daily Nation website responses to any story seen to be not favourable to Uhuru. It is like we are back to 1969 all of a sudden. Really? We will see.

      To them the petition before the SC is a waste of time. They demand that Raila concedes defeat now. Think for a second what this kind of mentality could lead to if the SC nullifies the election results.

      Wait till the case starts next week and the facts are out. Kenyans are going to tell the chauvinists to shut up and respect our institutions which are performing their duties.

      Today the government of Botswana told Uhuru he will not be welcome to Botswana if he does not cooperate with the ICC, something that all civilized world is going to tell Uhuru if his election is confirmed. Check the vitrol against Botswana in the Daily Nation and I am sure in the so called social media from rabid Uhuru nut cases.

  3. Folks,

    I’m hoping that we are not going to witness a high profile political assassination in the next few days or weeks.

    The emphasis here is on the words ‘hoping that we are not going to witness a high profile political assassination’. So, please DO NOT accuse me of being an alarmist!!

    Every Kenyan citizen or Kenya’s friend should let the law take its own course.

    • Einstein, what you say scares me and I hope you are not right. However, the uneasy calm we are experiencing worries me greatly. I am hoping that CORD have strong evidence to present in court to support their petition. On the other hand, i shudder to think what the outcome will be if the judgment is not in the favour of the dark forces that have been striving to manipulate this process. Will they maintain the ‘peace’ they are advocating so Kenyans can return to the ballot? It remains to be seen.

  4. After this election in 2013, starts THE STRUGGLE FOR THE THIRD LIBERATION, after THE SECOND LIBERATION ABORTED!!

    Welcome on board in this struggle if you are with me!

  5. Tomorrow i must say is the sadest day for any progressive and civilised minded kenyan that two criminals will be elected to rule the country. I must say the so called church leaders in kenya are crap with their silence as these criminals who only few ago instigated their tribe to kill each other. If is also a shame that kyuk n kale tribalism can blind so many pple to vote for these criminals. It looks like the average voter in kenya is empty headed that they voted for the constitution recently and then have gone ahead to elect those that were at forefront of rejecting it. I foresee difficult times ahead for the country as i read elsewhere that these two criminals have majority in both houses. I musr admit that i am witholding further investments in kenya till i see how things pan out as i strongly believe fomorrow marks the beginning of kenya slid to lawlessness and eventual civil strife within 5 years. I also feel disaaapointed by my folks as a kyuk as i couldnt convince them not to vote for these criminals which is very upsetting for me as my uncle was a victim of the tribal clashes in molo its so difficult as i have to try my best to understand and accept what i feel is betrayal by my folks.

    • @JM

      I share your sentiments. I am struggling to accept the shere myopic ness of the average Kenyan. When I see folks on the streets shedding tears of joy, I am left wondering, “did I miss something.” Who know’s, maybe I’ve been gone too long.

    • Folks,

      It seems it is all systems go for the petition. It is really not wise to say anything at this point in terns of the details. But it could be a shocker of biblical proportions. My folks inside the nerve centre are very confident but they are not going to file this case on the internet before they present it to the Supreme Court. It will be there much sooner.

      The boxing match with the IEBC and safaricom may surprise some people but CORD knows what they already have and IEBC can hide for a few days. When this matter is settled there may be no IEBC left to run the next election. It may have to be reconstituted afresh.

      CORD has set up a pretty smart operation. They have the political lawyers doing the job they do best. The techenical legal team that are invisible are busy putting together the full petition. Of course internet lawyers and judges are already hearing the case in full. The usual suspects have already made their rulings. To them there is no case. Really? What else is new!

      Personally I have a lot of confidence that the SC will do their job. Dr. Mutunga has to pick up four of his colleagues to join him in hearing the case. I suspect Dr. Wanjala may be the odd man out since the panel has to be an odd number to avoid a tie. I think the SC will strive for a unanimous verdict. It will depend on the evidence.

      Lets not forgert that the IEBC is starting from a terrible position. It is not a secret that they botched the elections. They failed in every single department. The BVR failed and then the transmission system flopped with ridiculous excuses from Hassan. Those are not contested facts.

      The failure of the transmission puts the IEBC in a very tough spot to start with. It gives them one strike down. Hassan’s explanation has been that he used the manual stuff and relied on the form 36 which replaced the now infamous form 16. But Hassan should remember that the transmission requirement is part of the electoral laws for a reason. It provides the first check and balance in the system. It was recommended by the Kriegler team and enacted into law because in 2007, the the Returning Officers altered records so badly that even Mr. Kriegler agreed it was not possible to determine who won.

      Therefore in as much as the final poll result had to come from the manual data, the constitution provided for that data to be cross checked with the provisional data transmitted directly from the voting location. Due to the failure of the transmission their is no provisional data to provide the check and balance that was supposed to be the first line of defense against electoral fraud. Is that enough to overturn the result? Of course not but if it emerges that it was part of a pattern and systemic scheme to mess the election it becomes a very big problem for the IEBC.

      In the meantime the part of data transmitted before the collapse has to be provided too and checked. Hassan already admitted they had a bug there mutiplying things by 8. He should have shut his mouth on that. Now he will have to explain all that and show the court how all that worked. If it turns out to be a phony excuse that he just cooked up, that just makes things worse for him. If there is any evidence that the system was deliberately compromised with or without the knowledge of Mr. Hassan and the IEBC that will be strike two.

      The final bit will be on the data itself. Any signs that votes were inflated and numbers forged etc will then just bury Hassan.

      And then of course any evidence of commissoners and IEBC staff being compromised would just be icing on the cake.

      So we will wait and see what evidence CORD has but they have a good start and the direction they must take is rather obvious.

      My son and his friends who are March Break from school were laughing the other day when they took off for the brief holiday and I was following the Kenyan news. They said in Kenya we don’t need any entertainment to worry about. Just follow the news and you have all the drama and entertainment you can handle. May be they have a point. Never a dull moment in that country. Political soap opera in Kenya is in a class of its own.

      In the meantime it seems the State House shetanis and their friends at the IEBC do not seem to understand the Kenyan laws. They are still stuck in the 2007 mode when Kibaki, the electoral thief, was sworn in darkness. They are busy inventing the myth that the election is over, Uhuru is the president and the SC case is just a joke. Well the joke may be on them. Now we can see why some people really wanted to screw the SC. These guys are itching to swear Uhuru in office at midnight if they could do that. It must be a very strange Kenya they are seeing. Let them get used to it. We are in a completely unchartered territory.

      • Just seen this on twitter…

        DAVID OSIANY ‏@DavidOsiany
        Can anyone explain to me whatever was being burnt at Bomas earlier this afternoon after IEBC met returning officers? #JustAsking.

      • heheheheehe:

        Palaver,

        I don’t know about the fires at Bomas. May be it is just some smoke. I think Kenyans are may be getting a little too paranoid about this thing. From what I know CORD has a lot of stuff already. They know what they are doing. They can burn Bomas if they want. CORD is actually operating at two levels.

        There are those keeping IEBC on full radar and alert. There is an army of lawyers working on the petition itself. And tomorrow the third level starts when Raila and Kalonzo meet all the CORD elected officials and start doing the business of the nation. It is the presidential elections that are suspended, the rest of the government(s) should get moving. Those who want to hang to Uhuru’s undewear and pretend that he is already the president can go ahead.

        But the IEBC complained yesterday that they didn’t have the time to provide the paperwork to CORD and that they were photocopying them. Now what are they still waiting for? Have their photocopiers also collapsed now? CORD also wants electronic data including communications.

        But people should not panic the evidence is coming in gunias.

        The worrying thing to me is that it seems the rigging machine did not anticipate the petition. In fact the official rigging number was supposed to be 54% for Uhuru and 42% for Raila. It was supposed to be so overwhelming that Raila would then be pressured to just concede and be a “statesman” and all that crap. It didn’t quite work that way.

        The riggers need to show a little respect to Kenyans and let the process go on without any monkey business. People will not tolerate that.

        And here now is Ms Jendayi Frazer who thinks she is helping Uhuru by ordering the president of the United States and the EU member states. Ms Frazer worked for Bush who is no longer the president. She can work for Uhuru all she wants but picking a fight with President Obama on behalf of Uhuru Kenyatta is just plain foolish. It is just going to make things worse. Jendayi Frazer has no standing in the US admnistration. She is essentially a regular raia in the US.

        Here we go:

        http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/news/2013/03/us-risks-being-alienated-in-kenya-frazer/

      • adongo,

        thanks for keeping us in the loop. IEBC owes us an explanation and it’s amazing that despite the obvious anomalies that marred this whole process, they continue to urge kenyans to accept the outcome of the election. i don’t know what the facts are, but a casual/independent observer can clearly see their evasiveness which may be interpreted as an attempt to hide something. who do these people really work for?

        the jubilee supporters (including the highly educated ones who should know better) are only making the situation worse. the venom, viciousness and vitriol directed toward CORD and more specifically Raila for simply exercising his democratic right is just amazing. kenyans may not be on the streets, but the fight on social media is extremely unhealthy.

        May the truth be revealed.

      • akinyi,

        There is a reason I never worry about the keyboard warriors and decorated internet Major Generals. . Most of them are hopeless cowards hiding behind handles. A good number of them know very little of what is really happening and in fact have no clue about anything. Many have never lifted a finger for their country. They would follow a dog if one was elected as our president as long as it is a dog from the neighbourhood. So let them jump up and down. It is all they know how to do.

        On the ground things are calm. That is what is important. There is a growing concern about censorship and political correctness where the shetanis do not want anybody to attack IEBC or even expose their obvious failures. CORD’s petition has messed that plan. The matter is now before the courts as well as the court of public opinion. When the evidence comes up Kenyans will be free to look at at and talk about them.

        If CORD can convince the nation with their evidence that some thieves tried to steal the election again it will be a devastating blow to the status quo. It will be more than just the polls. It will also be about the thieves, who they are and what they want. That is when things could get dicey because people will be very angry and that is what has to be managed very well. Those already dancing may need some help getting off the stage but as long as they do it peacefully there is no problem.

        Those of us who were around when Kibaki was sworn in at dusk know what to expect from the little cats of the status quo. They are vicious but they are just cats. Nothing to worry about. Five years later we can look back and what has been achieved in those five years was unthinkable to them then. They have faught against every bit of progress made and lost at every turn. They don’t know what hit them and here we are now for the first time having a presidential election petitioned in something called a Supreme Court of Kenya. Such a thought has never crossed their minds. Poor things. Just look at the evidence when it is presented and see for yourself. That is all there is to it. The fact that both sides have faith in the Supreme Court is a good thing.

      • The jubilation among the Uhuruto supporters has lately turned into irritation – why can’t ‘Kimundu’ just concede, given that he was soundly thrashed. The same group are the ones who repeatedly claimed that Raila should have gone to court following the 2007 fiasco.

        I am also of the opinion that Jubilee had not anticipated the petition. The rigging operation was very sophisticated, and the result was to be a fait accompli. You will be amazed at how many Kenyans, including Cord supporters, have been fooled that Uhuru beat Raila comprehensively. Many are of the opinion that Raila should just concede and the country moves on. The petition will lay bare the dirty laundry for all to see, if going by media reports that the proceedings will be televised.

        As for Cord, they must give ALL they have, seal any loopholes that could result in the case being thrown out on a technicality, understand the forces they are fighting against – dark, very dark forces and know the future of this great nation depends on them so they cannot afford to give up!

      • reading comments and emotions on social media, it looks like their is a lot of ethnic tension simmering and brewing below the surface

        actually sounds a lot worse than 2007. not sure what will diffuse the tensions, or conversely what will trigger an explosion of the bottled emotion

        it doesn’t help that the media has suddenly gone mute and playing like life’s back to normal

        i sincerely hope people maintain peace and that the court process is just and fair and also seen to be just and fair

    • Folks,

      By the close of the tallying session today around 00:20 hours Kenya time, the total tally stood at 5.847.115 votes for Uhuru against 5.063.829 votes for Raila. That gives Uhuru a 50.099% lead but with 19 constituencies still to go.

      It is not over till it is all over.

      We will see what comes up tomorrow in terms of new figures at about 11:00 hours Kenya time.

      • job,

        The votes cast were supposed to be 10.6 million or thereabouts. Now we have 12 million and counting, where did the other 2 million votes come from?

        This is going to be a big mess.

      • Adongo

        Hassan is on record stating that the national voter turnout was 72%. He must have gotten this statistic from some credible source. The current voter turnout based on these results is 85%. That is a huge discrepancy.

        Whereas I cannot verify this, based on results published in the press, there is about 10 constituencies where voter turnout is over 100% that of registered voters.

        How they managed to reconcile these numbers is a mystery.

        I only hope that the so called IEBC audit will uncover the discrepancies, but am not going to hold my breath on that.

        As far as the supreme court, high courts and others, I can assure you that none of them is going to make some earth shaking decision.

        I await the final declaration tomorrow by IEBC, if they are a credible body, they must take into account the erroneous data, but truth is they are a political body. their final decision will be political

      • One more question. I see Uhuru with barely over 50%. Do we know if this already factors in the spoilt and rejected votes. If it doesn’t Uhuru falls short even before the audit because even though they are less than the mad numbers from the hacked rubbish of yesterday they will reduce the % by a few fractions something Uhuru cannot afford.

      • according to http://www.capitalfm.co.ke/ and presumably, IEBC
        valid votes : 12 222 980
        rejected votes :108 975
        total votes cast : 12 338 667

        however, total votes cast minus (valid + rejected votes) = 6712. any explanation for this?

      • Adongo,

        Even before the transmission glitch, Isaak Hassan told the public that turnout was about 70%. The figure you give shows it has now SHOT UP to over 80% turnout…Considering places like Kilifi had 49% turnout (thanks to Kimemia’s operations)…I wonder whether over 12 million is realistic for turnout. There must have been serious ballot stuffing…It is becoming clear that holding credible elections in Kenya is a dream that is still miles away. Stealing elections has become sophisticated at every level — because stakes must be too high.

      • Akinyi,

        Any figure released from IEBC seems to require some form of audit. But they will likely be casually explained away as typo errors…These fellas have been fooling the world for a whole week…heightening and then allaying public anxiety…like a ping-pong…dizzying many in the process, draining others out, and then reading themselves to finally unveil the ICC President and ICC Deputy President mpende msipende. This is sure recipe for a divided nation…tensed more not just by the ICC conundrum, but anger of perennial election bungling.

      • This election was over before it even started. The stakes were so high in this election that it had to be won, one way or another. The minute the commputer errors started, I knew something was up. We were not dealing with amatures here, Moi had perfected this system. How does a presidential candidate lead from the beggining to the end?

        Uhuru had to have a big enough lead, that it would be impossible to catch up to, and as soon as it was clear the lead was shrinking, suddenly even larger numbers from his ‘strongholds’ would appear. How do neighbouring counties transmit there results so far apart? Is it because they needed to know how much they needed to top of? As for RV, I think CORD underestimated Ruto’s influence there, in hindsite, a very big blunder given that these were the most voter rich regions….. numbers ranging in the 70,000 for most counties.

        The more things seem to change the more, they stay the same. I dont see this court case going anywhere, just like I do not see Uhuru showing up at the hague. Kenyans should just be ready for another 100 years of impunity.

      • Moesha,

        I had said back on Jukwaa in 2010 that Ruto was opposing the constitution not because he was against it per se, it was to see how much he could mobilise the RV electorate so as to use them as a bargaining chip for the 2012 elections. He was able to mobilise them effectively. Now, when it comes to rigging, the elections was always going to be rigged whether you like it or not. In 07 the GEMA zone “votes” were used to rig the entire election, ODM had marshalled all the major blocks except the Kamba and GEMA, but the GEMA “numbers” were used to rig it.

        Fast forward 2013, it was always clear to me that although the GEMA & the Kalenjin blocs were sufficiently mobilised, Jubilee was still far short of the numbers needed to win the elections. The turnout was used to rig in Jubilee this time. We have countries like Australia where voting is mandatory, but even there the turnout is normally around 81% or 95% depending in whose statistics you want to believe. As long as the turnout is not 100%, the residual number of voters who didn’t turn up for the elections will be used to pad the numbers of those that are to be rigged in. Unfortunate but true.

    • “If CORD can convince the nation with their evidence that some thieves tried to steal the election again it will be a devastating blow to the status quo. It will be more than just the polls. It will also be about the thieves, who they are and what they want. That is when things could get dicey because people will be very angry and that is what has to be managed very well. Those already dancing may need some help getting off the stage but as long as they do it peacefully there is no problem.”

      Adongo, this is the critical piece. As much as a huge number of the Kenyan public desire to support CORD and reject the status quo there is much fatigue after the election. In addition, the propaganda war waged by Jubilee is vicious. CORD are being painted as sore losers willing to drag the party into chaos. The irony that this position is being advocated by indicted war criminals regarding the violence in the past election is lost on many Kenyans.

      Strong evidence will be needed and I hope it will be available publicly. Let’s hope the ‘madimoni’ have been caught in the act. I know it will be challenging with the refusal of the IEBC to release records etc. and the support the ‘madimoni’ have of state machinery but these guys are not that bright. I hope that there is convincing evidence available so this country can move forward from this.

    • einstein,

      Somehow there is some confusion about the remaining constituencies etc, but I doubt if all that matters now. Uhuru will win with slightly over 50%. So where does this thing go:.

      1. The next face of the battle begins in ernest. Let’s make no mistake about it. An Uhuru presidency ushers Kenya into an era of confusion and paralysis that will last for may be a few years before it is resolved, if ever.

      2. The next battle ground is the Supreme Court. Like I said before, CORD will file their case on electoral integrity and credibility and the civil society folks will file their case on Chapter six and how it applies to those indicted as suspects before the ICC. The Supreme Court will have to make a ruling in both cases in 30 days. That means at least for the next 30 days Kibaki is still the president of the republic of Kenya.

      3. Of the two cases that will be filed at the SC, the Chapter Six application is the one with the most profound impact. The other one really doesn’t matter because in the worst case scenario they wll have a run off if the results from primary documents are any different. But with the Chapter Six case a ruling against Uhuru and Ruto will lead to a complete paralysis of the government. If the court rules that Uhuru and Ruto are unfit to hold office it will be upto the senate to impeach the president.

      If the senate refuses or is unable to do that we will have a situation where a sitting president has been declared unfit to hold office. How will that work? It will be a disaster and the resulting stalemate will be unchattered territory. And by the way, even if the SC court rules that Uhuru and Ruto are in violation of Chapter Six the CJ still has to swear Uhuru in office. That is his presedural duty. The stalemate that come after that is not for the CJ to solve. It will ne a national crisis that will require a political solution.

      4. Come July 9, 2013, Uhuru is headed to The Hague where he will have to stay for we don’t know how long. Assuming the Chapter Six ruling goes against Uhuru then Kenya will have a president already declared unfit to hold office now held up at the ICC. Again the senate will have to look at its options.

      5. Should Uhuru refuse to report to The Hague, his bail will be pulled and an arrest warrant issued. If that were to happen Kenya becomes a pariah state and all hell breaks loose. I wish I was making these things but I am not. Uhuru and Ruto have laid their tyranny of tribalism using their tribal vote to protect them now we have to wait and see how that works for Kenya.

      6. In the meantime we as Kenyans need to set up the rules of operation that guarantees that whatever happens the business of the nation must go on undisturbed. First we have to eliminate any form of civil unrest. People might think it is only CORD that has to control its supporters but Uhuru and Ruto are going to have to deal with their supporters too in the event of a SC court ruling on Chapter Six which is not favourable to them. That could set off a storm too. So that rule numero uno. No violence.

      Second the country must operate as normal as possible. We need to ensure that Kenyan businesses are operating as normal as possible. People should be able to go about their business and make a living as they often do.

      Third the rest of the government machinery has to function without the dirty machinations of the likes of Kimemia who may think now he has the license to bully the rest of the country. Parliament and senate should be in full operation.

      Fourth the third layer of government, the county governments must get to work. It is going to be a nightmare for them with paralysis in State House but they have to get working. That is really the arm of gorvanance that will liberate Kenya from the tyranny of tribalism that Uhuru and Ruto have been preaching to their supporters for years now.

      In a nutshell folks, we have laid our bed and we may have to sleep their for a while, thorns and all.

      Can the country reconcile? I don’t think so. Reconciliation is a dirty word in Kenya. We live in a country where people accused of murdering babies and innocent folks proudly declare that they will do it again if need be. We live in a country where those accused of mass murder and rape of Kenyans wear it is a badge of honour and their supporters cheer them for that. We can never have reconciliation in such an atmosphere. Luckily for the country the ICC will deal with the head of the snake so we don’t need to worry about it. The rest of the stuff we just have to slug it out piece by piece. That is not a problem. We just need a little tolerance in the country as we pursue justice and fairness for all.

      We also have to remember that Uhuru and Ruto marketed themselves as leaders of the Gikuyu and Kelenjin communities. They never claimed even for one moment that rest of the country matters to them. The resulting vote has painted the picture clearer for all. The rest of the country has massively rejected Uhuru and Ruto while the Gikuyu and Kalenjin have massively endorsed them. You can expect that they will try to drag in their buddies like Tuju, Eugene Wamalwa, Balala, Ngilu (complete rejects) and use them as puppets to say you, we are willing to work with all communities. Personally I don’t care. The issues at state are way bigger than the tribal nonsense. Kenya is going to be at war with itself for a while. As long as that war is peaceful I am ready and looking foward to it. Patience my friends, Patience!

      Talk about the devil: It is here. Tik Tok. Let nobody say they were never warned.

      http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/ICC-sets-new-trial-dates-for-Ruto-Sang-cases/-/1064/1714772/-/tw65dw/-/index.html

      This is going to bring infinite complications. If all goes well and Uhuru and Ruto end up in office sometines in April then within a month Ruto must go to The Hague. Kalenjins are going to expect Uhuru to help him. Of course Uhuru cannot do that. If Ruto goes and starts his case that may last for years, Uhuru has to follow him in July. So the pullout date from the ICC is now May 28, 2013. If that doesn’t happen, Uhuru will have no choice but to follow him because if he pulls out in July when Ruto is there he shall send Ruto to jail maramoja and the Kalenjin would kill him. Just as we have said all along the first big agenda for Uhuru and Ruto will not be Kenya, the economy, jobs, good governance etc. It will be Hague, Hague and more Hague. Call it the tyranny of justice or any other name. It is what it is.

      unedited

      • I had initially thought allegations of election theft were outrageous. But after reading about this http://westfm.co.ke/index-page-news-bid-….35a3f9c6 15e5e2, of how an IEBC official tried to doctor votes in a cyber cafe, then allegations of cooking results don’t seem wild after all!
        So if one has the audacity of altering results in a cyber, what about those with their personal PC’s and laptops?

        If it is so easy to doctor results, can the SC nullify the presidential election? I am not a lawyer, but I have watched tv dramas and movies where a case can be dismissed if there is any whiff of evidence tampering or negligence which could lead to evidence tampering.

  6. Folks,

    Maybe you can help me here.

    The IEBC explained the huge number of spoilt/rejected votes during the live electronic transmission as follows:

    “There was an error in the way the programme was written… For any rejected vote for any candidate, they were being multiplied by eight,” said the IEBC chairman.

    Thereafter, the NMG reports the following:

    “As at 6.30pm last night, the IEBC had counted 6,031,500 votes, and the tally of rejected votes was at 58,409.

    When the results were being transmitted electronically from the polling stations, the database had recorded 338,592 rejected votes out of a total of 5,653,852 votes cast.”

    http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/-/1064/1714132/-/ayghod/-/index.html

    Now my simple math tells me that according to the information above, it is NOT possible that:

    “For any rejected vote for any candidate, they were being multiplied by eight,”

    According to my calculation, unless am completely wrong, for any single rejected vote for any candidate, they were being multiplied by the factor 5.796914859 i.e 338,592 rejected votes during the electronic transmission divided by 58,409 rejected votes as at 6:30pm last night as claimed by IEBC.

    I mean the multiplier effect should be constant for every rejected vote during the entire counting/electronic transmission duration. And this same multiplier effect should be easily traceable now as the votes get counted manually and should be going down by factor 8 i.e 1/8 for every single vote rejected. But this seems not to be the case according to my calculation as shown above.

    Can somebody help me out since I might have, unintentionally, held several factors constant in my calculation?

    My assumption, from what IEBC said, is that every single rejected vote was multiplied 8 times.

    • Dear Adongo,

      Thank you for your cogent posts. I admit, I admire your commitment to ensure that Kenya holds strong in spite of the contemptible actions of those who keep the entire country under the thumb of the ruling Kikuyu elite. I was often told that the term Kenya, came from an English man’s mispronunciation of the name “Kirinyaga.” As such, perhaps from it’s inception and naming as a republic, there was a sense of ownership over this country for those from Central Kenya. I remember, as a child, who had the experience of growing up deep in Kalenjin land, as an outsider, feeling the deep stigma of tribalism. To this date, this continues. You can ask the minority communities who work within the tea industry exactly how Kalenjin hegemony in demonstrated in their daily lives. Later, having moved into the city, for the later half of my primary school education I and several other non-Kikuyus got to experience an even deeper of tribalism at the hands of Kikuyu classmates who had clearly learned from their parents that they were superior to the rest of us. I particularly, pitied the poor Luos who were teased mercilessly and often isolated. “Don’t drink his juice, he is a Luo” is a phrase whose cutting pain to the six year old I saw experience it still rings true today. Of course, the true pain of the hegemony of the Kikuyu and Kalenjin elite cuts much deeper than social isolation at age six. It involved limited social advancement and developmental opportunities for those from the “wrong tribes.” Of course, if you dared raise a sound – the condescending refrain would be the same one that is expressed by dominant elites over those they exploit the world over: “We are so hardworking, we enjoy all these rewards because of merit. if only you worked as hard as we did … ”
      As some jukwaaist, once said, there is a reason some of us elect to live with the potential stigma of racism in foreign countries over being subjected to the ravages of tribalism at the hands of ‘your own people.’
      Why are these bitter memories from my Kenyan upbringing resurfacing today? It is because little has changed. If anything, things are worse than ever before and the elite are able to continue to manufacture consent among their ethnic masses.

      I concur with you that it is probably too late for reconciliation. To be completely honest, I sometimes wonder whether it would be best if this country were divided such that counties of Central Province and Rift Valley retained “Kenya” – tea and coffee industry and all, and the rest of the country formed its own union. If Central and Rift Valley province residents want to be led by an indicted war criminal, perhaps we should let them. However, do the rest of us deserve this ? Do we deserve the ensuing consequences? It is the height of impunity and ludicrousness that the very people who stand accused of the massacre of each others’ communities, now manage to manufacture consent among their blinded ethnic masses to support their presidential ambitions. How deeply tribal do you have to be to vote for a vice president who is accused of coordinating the burning of your relatives in church where they were seeking refuge, just so that one of your tribesmen can be president?

      The new system of county government presents the opportunity for self-governance and perhaps a necessary platform for seceding from the counties in Central Kenya and Rift Valley. Let’s face it, the prospect of continuing to be live under GEMA domination indefinitely is not an appealing one for most people outside the communities that have wielded power since 1963. I genuinely believe that the other counties could map out a power sharing agreement that could see a 2-4 year presidential term that rotates from county to county. In such a case, a county that had once presented a candidate for president could not do so again until other counties had the chance to hold the role.

      Please note, that I am not advocating that this be done violently, but it is food for thought. I increasingly struggle with the fact that I may no longer have a strong “Kenyan” identity, Kenya doesn’t seem to be for all of us. Perhaps it’s time we think about creating a country for those of us who don’t belong. We have already heard, “Pwani si Kenya” . . . At this rater, perhaps other parts of Kenya will chime in.

      • cynicforsocialchange,

        Thanks for your feedback. I agree with you that the country is going to go through some serious dialogue with itself but let me clear a few things.

        1. Yes indeed Uhuru and Ruto started with KKK and ended with KK. They spent over three years telling the country that their primary agenda is to unite specific tribes for power. In the end they decided the two tribes can rule Kenya (some of their more rabid supporters think forever) as long as they unite. In reality that is rubbish. Why do I say that? Essentially CORD beat itself even if we forget the hidden hand of the rigging machine which will be proved to have been massive.

        What we have to learn from Barack Obama is that achieving political victory is not about the quality of your vision, however brilliant, it is not about the agenda you have for your country however urgent and needed, it is not about the quality of your contributions to your country however vital etc. It all comes down to the quality of your organization and mobilization skills and in that department CORD did not do too well. Let me explain.

        Kenya has a potential of 18 million votes. We ended up with 14 million registered. The tribal superstars made sure they registered close to 90% plus of their eligible tribes folks. They also made sure their tribal voting block made it to the booth. There are reports indicating some of those high turn outs were inflated for obvious reasons. On Cord’s side they left out 4 million unregistered voters because those who didn’t register came from their strongholds. Of those who registered in Cord strongholds another 3 million or so didn’t vote. On that basis alone Cord left out close to 7 million voters enough to beat the 6 million or so Uhuru got.

        In that regard Mutahi Ngunyi was right except he tried to avoid naming it as what it was – the tyranny of tribalism which we can now safely say after this election has become Kenya’s number one disease. I have said many times and I will say so again. Kenya has achieved its best when we abandoned tribalism and we have seen the worst of the country when tribalism became the national ideology and religion. Wait and see how the next few years develop and you will see the consequences of embracing tribalism as a national religion. It is coming.

        2. I also agree with you that devolution will provide a little antidote for raging state tribalism from whichever quarter and more so with the Uhuruto mob which is going to be engrossed in battles beyond our borders and will be forced to dig even deeper within their tribal support to do the cry baby of, oh the west is after us, oh ICC is being used, oh civil society is being used to finish us, oh someone is trying to fix our communities and all that crap. So expect Uhuru and Ruto to dig deeper into tribal support base because they are going to face real hell on earth just after they have their big celebration of “victory’. The ICC cases these guys are facing starting May 28, 2013 for William Ruto is no joking matter.

        So yes devolution will be a great break from the hegemony of State House but with a completely dysfunctional central government even implementing devolution is going to be very hard. We are going to need a lot of money and we need the damn donors to help in setting up some key institutions there but as it is our government will soon be engaged in a life and death war with the donor countries. Uhuru already started with his ridiculous verbiage against the British government. I don’t know how much China and Sudan and may be even Somalia are going to help here but we will see. So hang in there for the nation. Uhuru and Ruto have won a battle but they are doomed to lose the war. Of that I am very sure

        3. As a country though I disagree with you. Kenya is an indivisible country. We are better together. Just because tribal chauvinism has dominated our politics gives us no excuse to bail out on the country. Uhuru and Ruto did not come together for the sake of the Kikuyus and Kalenjins. They came together to save themselves and even the Kikuyus and Kalenjins will soon find out just how expensive this whole project is. Sooner than later Kenyans are going to come together to face a fascist machine in the country where two individuals are out to save themselves and ruin the country. It will not happen. Kenyans love their country and their money. That is why.

        There are a whole bunch of Uhuruto supporters who are deluded that once Uhuru and Ruto take power the ICC will just call the case off and the West will just find a way to sort this out. That is dangerous fiction. Uhuru and Ruto are either willingly going to The Hague for their trial and forfeiting State House or they abscond and become international fugitives (very likely) and then the hammer comes down. There are no two ways about it.

        4. As for national reconciliation, forget about it. There is a reason the powers that be destroyed the TJRC. Uhuru and Ruto are going to try to bully everybody into submission with loud support from their support base. They will not succeed. Like I said Kenya is a country where the killers brag about their exploits. Criminals walk around prancing about their great achievements in the business and demand to be installed in office because of that. Tribalists sit on rooftops and yell at us. How on earth can Kenyans forgive those who swear on the graves of those they have killed that they are clean and are only going to clear their names. Never a moment to say “may be something went wrong”.

        Fine. So reconciliation with these sick monsters is not possible and is not desirable at all but reconciliation between communities is possible and desirable except we have no credible institutions to lead such a process. That doesn’t surprise me at all.

        5. What has really surprised me is two discussions I had today one just a few minutes ago as I was typing this few lines. This was with a great friend of mine in Nairobi. She is a distinguished professional who works mainly with UN agencies. Earlier I talked with another gentleman. In both cases you can just feel the anger within them. Both told me in no uncertain terms that will never ever accept Uhuru, a mass killer as their president. People are also on edge contrary to the sanitized stuff from the media. My friend in Nairobi told me there is palpable censorship already. Everybody is supposed to talk about peace and use words like “accept defeat”. They told me after tomorrow the silence is over. That is scary stuff.

        6. Finally I will leave folks with the wisdom I learnt in jail. We used to have endless arguments with jail guards as student prisoners. They hated us and we hated them even more. They would yell at us and tell us how stupid we were to be spending years in jail instead of being outside earning money. We would tell them we are in jail for a few years and will get out but they are in jail for life.

        The patience of revolutionaries is what drives our enemies nuts. We can sit there and watch grass grow if that is what we must do but our focus never change. Uhuru and Ruto will have their party for a day or two and then either go to The Hague or hide in caves. We will still be right here and doing our best to move the country foward. Every setback is always a great opportunity for us. Look what we have done with Kibaki. After ten years when he thought he would be king, we have our new constitution after kicking out his fake one in 2005 (big battle). And now, his friends including his right hand man are going to The Hague. Who really won that battle with Kibaki? It was the Kenyan people. Don’t bet against them. They will always win. With battles.

  7. was expecting jubilee to peak at 5.5m before CORD start catching up. it looks like they are going to peak at well below 4.5m

    • Adongo, thank you so much for your response. It is people like you whose persistence in advocating for social change that inspire me to keep hope alive and keep fighting. After all, oppression abounds no matter where you are on the globe and it is the progressive idealists who pile the pressure on power that help bring about the small positive changes we see in the world. Perhaps my past comment was a little rash but I must say it reflects the deep sadness I see at witnessing Kenya head in this direction – 6 million voters in tow. Like those you have have spoken to I will never consider the son of Kenyatta to be legitimately be my president or Kenya’s president. It was an act of utmost selfishness to run for office, given the “personal challenges” he is facing. I have also stopped paying attention to mainstream media sources. They have been untrustworthy for a while, and continue to be so. Please keep writing. Even though people may not be commenting, they may be reading . . and learning as I have been for a long time.

      Please note, I also concur with you regarding the poor organization of CORD with regard to voter registration and mobilization. Although, part of this may be related to resource disparities between the two groups there is a big lesson to be learned here. However, i wonder why it was such a big deal for the IEBC to extend the registration deadline by a week? Surely, smaller compromises have been made for less significant reasons.

      I am bracing myself for the next 5 years, they could be very long. I say this being one of the lucky ones who has a second nation that I can call home (which, by the way we may share).

      • cynicforsocialchange,

        It will not be five years. I am sure about that. This Uhuruto tragicomedy may not last one year. It is utter nonsense. This is a tribal cabal put together to save Uhuru and Ruto from the ICC. The road ahead is so messy, uncertain, full of dangerous potholes and completely unnavigatable. We still have to travel through there as a nation. We are there now. We don’t have a choice as a nation. If this is the road we must travel now, so be it.

        It is so sad and even dangerous when the beginning of a road is also the end of the same. Which direction do you go? That is what we have with Uhuruto in 2013. March.

        Figure out Uhuru and Ruto coming out dancing tomorrow after the IEBC declare them winners in the most bizarre election in the history of our country. I mean we have more counted votes than cast votes! It looks like somewhere between the voting booths and the counting centre we added a few more million votes or so. How do you do that? This obviously beats the 2007 rigging by their sheer stupidity. Forget the 1988 mlolongo. Isaack Hassan will have to deal with that tomorrow. We are waiting. I suspect he might have answers like the 8 multiplier. Don’t laugh now.

        So far the IEBC explanations on everything including the BVR collapse and the projected I million rejected and spoilt votes with their 8 multiplier effect is nothing but a loud joke. The nation is waiting for Isaack Hassan and the IEBC tomorrow. I will not judge them harshly now, but they have more than a mountain to climb. So far this looks like the most compromised and corrupt election ever in the history of our country. We are ready for Mr. Hassan right about now. Let him get some sleep. Let him give us his Uhuru. No problem.

        On the bigger picture, they (Uhuruto) will not be dancing to the tune of the republic because many Kenyans from so many communities will not even listen to them. People are really mad out there. They (Uhuroto) will be dancing to their tribal base. Who cares? Let them go ahead. But majority of Kenyans are saying they are fed up with the tribal jingoism of Uhuru and Ruto. May be that is not the case. We will soon find out. Won’t we?

        My message though is that as patriots, as Kenyans, we cannot and must never abandon our country and leave it to mercenary interests of Uhuru and his side kick Ruto .

        Kenya is one of the best countries in the world and of course it is the only country we have as Kenyans wherever we live and work. We will defend it with our lives and we know it is one of the best places in the universe to call home. The Uhuruto gangsters will not change that.

  8. The electronic system and the results that it displays are only provisional. The real results are the ones certified by returning officers from the counties. Even Peter Kenneth has companied of a discrepancy between what his agents are saying and what IEBC is displaying. I believe this is what has necessitated the decision to bring returning officers physically to account for results.

    • My friends and I are patriotic Kenyans. We were shocked by the decision to allow a pair of ICC indictees to be on the ballot of our presidential elections. We felt that this was illegal and unconstitutional. But we are civic minded and patriotic. We decided to participate in the elections only to protest against a great injustice. We wanted our votes to count as a protest.

      I therefore marked X on Uhuru and X on Ruto. This was intentional. I knew, having read carefully the constitution that my vote would be cast, counted and tallied but would not be in favour of any candidate.

      My brother, decided to protest in a different way. Having marked ballots by ticking for Raila Odinga, Evans Kidero, Margaret Wanjiru among others; he decided to deliberately put the presidential ballot in the governor’s box and the governor’s ballot in the senator’s box and interchanged the civic with the parliamentary. He insisted that he knew, from IEBC civic education meetings that while these ballots would be considered cast, they would not be counted in favour of any particular candidate.

      My sister marked X for Uhuru Kenyatta, Clifford Waititu, and Sonko among others and then, patriotically, proudly and deliberately cast her votes in the wrong boxes.

      All my relatives and friends, hundreds of thousands of us, many living in IDP camps, decided to write all manner of protest messages on the ballots before casting them. We also mixed up ballot boxes. But as patriotic Kenyans, we cast our votes after standing in the hot sun for hours. Nobody should try to interpret our wishes as anything else other than what they are: cast ballots for no one in particular to protest a choice of indicted rapists, murderers and criminals on our ballot.

      Guys – let’s all remain calm and peaceful as results are tallied.

    • `
      RR,

      Thank goodness your vote will have a very significant impact…it ultimately makes a run-off closer. What a way to protest!

      On a bigger note – the fallacy of the digital election has been equally busted. No one cares anymore about provisional results and the fake digital transmission displays — we are now dealing with the final votes as certified (& signed by Returning officers and IEBC). All party representatives are also signing these FINAL results. It is the good ‘ol painstaking analogue method…but quite transparent and open.

      BUSTED!!!!! Uhuru Kenyatta has started getting scared–already accusing the British High Commissioner and British military of ‘interference’…in yahoo breaking news.

      Meanwhile, Kenyans are patiently waiting for VALID results reflecting the will of voters.

      So far we have 6 out of 291 constituencies already reported. Right there at Bomas, another 44 Returning officers are currently having their filed returns verified by IEBC and party representatives before CERTIFICATION and announcement by IEBC…

      It’s called TRANSPARENCY and ACCOUNTABILITY.

      We have witnessed first hand the dangers of the secretive and manipulable ELECTRONIC system which cost the nation billions of shillings. Damn these amateur Jubilee hackers! They were busted!

      • Job,

        I think Uhuru is scared that the British soldiers have come to arrest him for crimes against humanity. Let him relax. British soldiers only come here under treaty and controlled by jubilee folks in foreign affairs and defense.

        Or is he suggesting that the British will overthrow the government? What does tha have to do with the elections? Ama Uhuru has started campaigning for round 2?

      • job, Andrew N, RR & DC folks,

        This just in from the belly of the lion.

        1. The electronic system was hacked by Jubilee operatives and all the provisional results are now null and void. That is now official.

        2. The only relevant numbers are the ones being released constituency by constituency.

        3. There is a deliberate attempts to create confusion. The DN and other media are still displaying the “hacked up” provisional data which is creating part of the confusion. CORD doesn’t really care about that. All they are interested in is that all the 290 constituencies are manually tallied after verification.

        4. My source tells me CORD is looking at a one time shot with the numbers they have in their possession right now but at the very worst there will be a run-off. It is illegal to release any of those numbers and my source told me he cannot even tell me what those numbers are or he will be breaking the law and any website that carries them will be breaking the law. So breathe easy folks. The real show is just beginning.

        5. IEBC is just releasing numbers per constituency and the tallying is going on to be released later but it is up to you if you have the energy to add them up. No total numbers have been provided. The rest is fiction.

        Stay tuned.

      • `
        Adongo et al.,

        I am seeing a determined and clever lawyer called Hassan who has refused to be used like Kivuitu…he is deliberately refusing to shoulder anyone’s blame. He has already read the riot act to all IEBC officials from presiding officers, returning officers, county & regional managers, and commissioners themselves. In case they sign questionable forms (eg Form 34)..they will be held directly liable for such malfeasance under the new electoral laws.

        Pay very close attention to who announces which results…you may discern a pattern.

        There are certain results that Hassan is making sure are publicly announced directly by those who signed them – at the constituency or regional commission level. Yet some are announced straight out by IEBC Commissioners ( so far, Hassan himself & Commissioner Prof. Yusuf Nzibo).

        My instinct tells me Hassan is deliberately leaving certain results (probably contestable) to be announced by the regional (or county) commissioners who managed and signed them at the lower level. I am already documenting the pattern in real time…others can also join in…noting this trend. Try to relate this pattern with the % turnout…

        Coming back to the bungled electronic mess…What is obvious (from Adongo’s contact with the lion’s belly)… pretty much confirms what has been feared all along…possibility of hacking into the electronic transmission system by Jubilee thugs in state (& embedded within IEBC). The good thing – the operation was busted. Vigilance must be heightened even more. Kenyans must refuse to live in a country where the state feeds the populace on a diet of robbery for a straight 41 days. This needs to stop!

        Media (especially DN) was definitely part of this conspiracy which has now been busted. That’s why they are stuck with their embarrassing, stale BUT inconsequential numbers which IEBC and Hassan has abandoned… “eggs on face”. Some apologists masquerading as media analysts are desperately trying to spin apologisms on TV…quite embarrassing.

        Safaricom (& its British interests) – fearing widespread commercial backlash (in form of economic boycotts) is trying to distance itself from the digital transmission mess. In case you noticed in Hassan’s last press briefing – he painstakingly tried to exonerate Safaricom from the electronic transmission-system mess he has now abandoned.

        Like Hassan, certain stakeholders (especially those outside the conspiracy) are separating themselves from the fraudulent mess…of that digital transmission. This might turn out to be a major scandal in future with two components –corruption (procurement) + electoral malpractice — which could be a double whammy should forensic audit be undertaken…


        Hassan has now ordered (ironically the same ICT department in IEBC) to set up a Second Screen showing OFFICIAL CERTIFIED PRESIDENTIAL RESULTS from constituencies…based on tabulation of announced Constituency results.

        We will now watch whether establishment media like Daily Nation choose to display the new tabulations or stick to the stale mess.

        2 more things:

        a) Let’s watch for any trend/pattern of arrival of IEBC returning officers…are there some from certain constituencies who are not picking up phones (like 2007)?

        b) Hassan has technically/subtly read another riot act to Uhuru Kenyatta’s agents…citing the Code of Conduct signed by Presidential candidates…reckless and inciteful statements by Kenyatta’s camp — about British interference, British High Commissioner, and presence of British troops in the country — violates that conduct.

        Uhuru needs to accept the authority of IEBC and maintain peace even after the elections. Every Tom, Dick and Harry can see Uhuru inciting his ethnic base(s) against the West – principally campaigning for the run-off using the anti-colonial nationalism platform that is raising unnecessary tension in the country

      • Job, Adongo, et al

        Ruto had a press conference and he was trying to intimidate the IEBC, he was essentially telling them to expedite the release of the results that they have so that “Kenyans can see where the elections are headed”. ODM on the other hand are keeping cool.

        On another note, Ahmednasir Abdullahi was in the KTN studios whining that the IEBC has changed the “rules of the game” midstream. He was basically stating that IEBC had decided to use the Electronic transmission system and are changing it midway to the manual tallying. For a lawyer of his calibre, he should know that the electronic transmission system doesn’t replace the official signed forms as presented by the Returning Officer. He also stated that the rejected votes should not form part of the percentage, if they are to be factored in, they should be proportionally spread among the presidential candidates. He was of the position that reducing the percentages of the candidates by factoring in the spoilt votes is tantamount to “rigging”. His thinking is so wrong on many fronts & I will leave it as such.

      • Folks,

        The manual tally is coming pretty well. Of course it is something you check out once in a while unless you want to go nuts. I just checked at around 4.30 p.m Canadian time and out of about 1.5 million votes the results are virtually tied. It seems they go up and down for both sides. That looks to me like normal election results. Not that crazy linear bullshit we saw from the electronic results.

        This is going to go toe to toe to the finish line. That is what everybody predicted. Also votes are coming in from all the strongholds of both sides. So far lots of results from RV constituencies and some heavy weight Central constituencies are in as well as results from parts of Nyanza and Coast (not in the heartland yet). This is going to go to the wire,. Almost zero from Nairobi and Western.

        In another 24 hours we should have the results.

        I think the idea of the electronic forgery was to create a situation where at some point Raila and Cord were going to be pressured to conceded defeat, which has been the Jubilee slogan in last days of campaign. Predictably Peter Keneth who had a minuscle 0.57% of the vote already conceded yesterday to set the pace. That is the first time in my life I had someone with less than 1% vote conceding an election. In it is like Ron Paul conceding defeat in the US election. It is unheard of. Only contenders concede but I guess Peter Kenneth was looking for a new job with team Uhuru as a member of the cabinet and also starting on the expected pressure on Raila. Didn’t work.

        Now let’s see how this goes.

      • Folks,

        The manual tally is coming pretty well. Of course it is something you check out once in a while unless you want to go nuts. I just checked at around 4.30 p.m Canadian time and out of about 1.5 million votes the results are virtually tied. It seems they go up and down for both sides. That looks to me like normal election results. Not that crazy linear bullshit we saw from the electronic results.

        This is going to go toe to toe to the finish line. That is what everybody predicted. Also votes are coming in from all the strongholds of both sides. So far lots of results from RV constituencies and some heavy weight Central constituencies are in as well as results from parts of Nyanza and Coast (not in the heartland yet). This is going to go to the wire,. Almost zero from Nairobi and Western.

        In another 24 hours we should have the results.

        I think the idea of the electronic forgery was to create a situation where at some point Raila and Cord were going to be pressured to conceded defeat, which has been the Jubilee slogan in last days of campaign. Predictably Peter Keneth who had a minuscle 0.57% of the vote already conceded yesterday to set the pace. That is the first time in my life I had someone with less than 1% vote conceding an election. In it is like Ron Paul conceding defeat in the US election. It is unheard of. Only contenders concede but I guess Peter Kenneth was looking for a new job with team Uhuru as a member of the cabinet and also starting on the expected pressure on Raila. Didn’t work.

        Now let’s see how this goes.

      • *****VERY URGENT*******

        Adongo et al…could you urgently find out from the lion’s belly about some little but curious development.

        Are you guys noticing a sudden shrinkage in the number of rejected voters – as per the 3 million counted mark (covering most Jubilee strongholds). From this 30% sample of the voting population, the rate of rejection of votes is only 0.5%.

        Comparatively, from the earlier results coming through the “electronic transmission system” – at about the same 30% mark, there was a rejection rate of above 5% (TEN TIMES MORE).

        Since this is the same voting population, in a free and fair election…under a normally distributed population, statistically speaking, any random sample of the same population should have about the same rate of voter rejection.

        Application of basic statistics can easily detect signs of manipulation –away from normal distribution – of any population, such as Kenya’s voting population.

        Is there something being done by IEBC to globally redress the previously high voter rejection rates, or Is someone trying to suggest that about 500,000-plus rejected votes were predominantly skewed in CORD’s strongholds…especially those that are still being with-held…like Western, Nairobi and Coast.

        That right there could be the diagnosis of a manipulated sample…probably at the point of polling booths –whereby semi-illiterate voters in certain areas were assisted to cast presidential ballots into the right presidential box –whereas voters in the opposing areas were deliberately MISLED to cast presidential votes into wrong boxes…Therein could lie the definition of a DELIBERATELY SKEWED vote that CANNOT be said to be FREE and FAIR.

      • job,

        I will seek answers to the very pertinent question you have raised such as the disappearing “spoilt/rejected” votes in the manual tallying. To be fair in the now discredited “electronic” provisional results, Uhuru had slightly more votes spoilt/rejected than Raila. They cannot cook anything different but we will find out tomorrow.

        I agree with you that CORD strongholds in regions like Western which surprised the “tyranny of tribalism” experts only one constituency, Malava and a few more constituencies have been included in the list of counted constituencies. There are I million votes out there for CORD with negligible votes for Jubilee. That is why Mudavadi right now has 28,000 votes.

        In Ukambani we have a handful of constituencies reported. There is close to a million votes remaining out there too. The heart of the coast has not been reported including the Mombasa county. Kilifi and Kwale too.

        Nairobi is still not reported much with over 1 million votes which will be shared most likely to the advantage of CORD. There are a few of the 17 constituencies reported yet from Nairobi county.

        I tend to think the exaggerated spoilt/rejected votes in the fake provisional results were part of the overall rigging scheme. That was ridiculous. If it starts showing its ugly head again when the CORD stronghold areas start to roll in, it will be another matter as you suggest. Let me find out.

        My suspicion right now is that the way we have seen Jubilee heavy zones in RV roll in and now the heartland of central including Kiambu are in, when ODM catches up with votes from Western, Coast and Ukambani and other areas, this thing is going to boil down to who wins Nairobi City.

        I will be back tomorrow. Our time.

      • Job,

        I have observed the same like yourself in terms of spoilt/rejected votes and all, but since most CORD strongholds remain unreported thus far we should hold our horses.

        By tomorrow mid-day the truth will start rearing its true face and then we can go full throttle about any suspicious figures!

        My brother, we gotta keep our eyes very wide open. It is called vigilance, vigilance and again vigilance!!

        God help Kenya!!

  9. the consequences of ignoring the elephant in the room

    this had been posted here earlier

    http://www.the-star.co.ke/news/article-108148/iebc-must-fix-results-transmission-system-fast

    excerpt
    ==
    Last week, the IEBC called IT-savvy representatives of political parties to a meeting on Friday at the Sunshine Holiday Inn in Westlands, Nairobi, where the use and efficacy of the equipment to be employed for the election counting and reporting was to be demonstrated. A representative of the US National Democratic Institute (NDI) was also present.

    Party participants had a whole range of questions on which they wanted reassurance from the IEBC, especially concerning potential failures carried forward from the past.

    To demonstrate how the new system would obviate all this, some of the participants at the meeting were divided into five groups of three, each group a mock ‘polling station’. They were given mobile phones such as those to be used on March 4. The phones are loaded with the software and menus for completing the tasks at hand.

    The remainder of the group sat watching the screen, waiting for the ‘results’ to come in.

    That’s when the problems started. The five ‘polling stations’ were initially all unable even to log in.

    After a few of the five did eventually manage it, the next problem arose. They were logged in but there was no connectivity with the ‘tallying centre’. The ‘polling station’ callers could not be authenticated.

    Finally, after struggling for ONE HOUR, only ONE of these five ‘polling stations’ managed to transmit its results.

    Now, much as we want to trust that the IEBC is going to do a good job, we have to ask – if four out of five ‘polling stations’ have problems in a demonstration meant to show the efficient use of this technology, what on earth is going to happen when 33,000 polling stations all try to log in and transmit results at the same time?
    ==

  10. Folks,

    I am A God-fearing person, but I have a problem with an IEBC official paid by the taxpayer to execute his job professionally coming to us on TV to appeal for calm using the name of my Lord Jesus Christ for an apparent mistake/failure on his/their part!

    I am talking about the IEBC official in Mombasa who addressed us on KTN about his failures in Mombasa.

    My Lord Jesus Christ has got nothing to do with such a failure and as such should NEVER be quoted out of context!

    • In Charity Ngilu’s County aka CORD area, nothing is working according to a reporter there!

      How I wish to hear that Central Kenya and RV also face the same challenges!!

      Mmmmm! I will not say what I think, but this thing is gonna blow on somebody’s face worse than on Kivuitu’s who could not even wait to witness this election after his bungled one!!! May he RIP!!

    • Folks,

      First let me answer job’s querry on the mystery of “disappeared” spoilt/rejected polls. Is it yet another ploy in the rigging machine? The answer is nobody can figure that out yet but it is an indicator that there is endless manipulation of the electoral results and that IEBC is just making stuff up as they go along.

      In a nutshell when I talked to my folks inside the nerve centre of operations the first words were ” What has happened is worse than what happened in 2007″. When I asked what that means, I was told I should know what that means. Basically the rigging has been at levels unseen before.

      The issue of agents being kicked out happened after only 16 constituencies were reported. Since then the IEBC is announcing whatever they are being fed without verification. Inflated poll numbers is the norm in the appropriate places

      CORD has now gone to court to stop the whole process but my source told me the situation is already being militarised with three contingents of the GSU already deployed in the city.

      From all indications the powers that be have decided they will announce Uhuru as the winner come rain or hell fire. Kimemia was not joking.

      Will there be chaos? Not likely. CORD is determined to keep the peace.

      Will CORD accept a rigged election? NO. The matter is headed to court and the irregularities are endless. I cannot give any details as yet.

      So my own conclusion is that Uhuru will win this battle temporarily but the war will just be beginning and it is going to be a messy war of attrition, something I personally like but the emphasis is to keep the peace and not cause any chaos and loss of life.

      In the civil society front the folks there are already preparing to submit their integrity case to the SC as soon as Uhuru is declared president elect. That is what the courts told them. Courts have no jurisdiction on eligibility but they have all the jurisdiction on suitability based on chapter six and that is only applicable if someone is already in a position to assume a public office. I have always maintained that being eligible to run and being able to hold a public office are two different things. We are going to find out about that sooner than later.

      Three issues on eligibility.

      (i) Does Chapter Six apply to elected public officers or does it only apply to appointed public officers?

      (ii) Is a person indicted to face trial for crimes against humanity committed in Kenya in breach of Chapter Six of our constitution?

      (iii) based on (ii) above are Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto fit to hold the office of the president and DPOK respectively?

      Note: The civil society really do not care about Jubilee or CORD as a matter of fact they are also prepared to file similar case if CORD candidates take office. It will be upto the SC.

      In a nutshell, Uhuru may very well face two cases at the SC. That is why I called it a war of attrition. Our country may be entering the most trying period of its existence but as long as we keep the peace I think it will be all good.

      And here is the ICC tik tok that seems to show no respect for anybody.

      Uhuru is due there in July 09, 2013 and could eb there for a very long time. Ruto may be very soon after him. Talk about government by Skype. It is coming to kiosk near you.

      Here we go.

      http://www.nation.co.ke/News/politics/ICC–issues-new-date-for-Uhuru-Muthaura-trials/-/1064/1714044/-/1171t9qz/-/index.html

      • Adongo,

        If what you claim is true, then things are really depressing!

        Before the election, i recall hearing reckless drivel from Jubilee folks of how this time “tutajaza GSU Kisumu, na wakale wako side yetu, so hakuna kitu watado”.

        But that said, is it possible for a party agent to prove that the tallied results are not the ones he/she appended a signature to?
        Are their documents that can be authenticated to prove this claim?
        How independent is the judiciary, considering the nominated deputy cj once withdrew from a case after being threatened by the then Kamkunji MP?

        Finally, once Uhuru is declared president you can bet he will defy the ICC come rain or hell fire. As for what his defiance portends for the nations – only time will tell.

      • Andrew N.

        Just very quickly. I just had a discussion with the people down there. Hassan has specific numbers he has to announce. It is 54% for Uhuru and 42% for Raila. Those are the instructions. Check that number tomorrow. He has to figure out how to do that and I think they have the mechanisms in place. Right now they want to announce the final result as quickly as they can. Time is their number one enemy.

        The numbers though are something else right now 2.13 p.m Canadian time its 3,334,000 for Uhuru and 3,017,000 for Raila. Bondo and Limuru are just about to come in. So we will see how Hassan gets his numbers as per the orders.

        Do the candidates have their own internal numbers? Yes they do and that is a secret they cannot give even to their closest buddies. I think only the principals know those numbers but as soon as the IEBC numbers are out the candidates are free to release their own internal data and take any disputes they have to the IEBC and then to the Supreme Court.

        As for the GSU, yes they are ready. But my thinking is that Kenyans will not give them any opportunity to kill people.

        Whichever way you look at it, the country is on the verge of a major crisis and it could be very costly but it is going to be peaceful. Kenyans will not shed blood. But a paralysis in the governance of the country could be an economic disaster of biblical proportions.

        Also consider that the ICC process is underway and judging by the annoucement today the cases will go on. The judges decided on the date of July 9, 2013 and said they are going to resolve Uhuru’s request to be taken back to the pre-trial chamber. You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to figure that the judges will go on with the case. They are going to give Uhuru a sensible ruling as to why but the fire is on.

        You add all these together with – a rigged election, a Jubilee squad which is already at war with “foreign” countries making reckless accusations against the British etc and you know where we are heading as a country. It is not a good place but we will overcome it as a country.

      • Adongo,
        Your people down there are getting to exited and a bit paranoid of losing the election. I think a check with reality will shows that Cord is slowly recovering some of the lost ground as at this moment Raila has 3.252.126 votes or 45.85 % of the votes. Uhuru is still ahead with 3.517.629 votes but has come under the 50% checkpoint (49.95%)
        This will lead to a second runoff. Cord should stop airing the plot theory as they will lose credibility by the voters which they will need for the runoff.

      • The big ones Meru, Nakuru and Kiambu remaining at 23:26 kenya time.
        Thats 1.5M votes. This will take Uhuru to slightly over 5M. He will not hit the magic 5.5M. It a run off never mind what people are saying

      • einstein,

        The multiplier bug fiction by Hassan is stupidity on steroids. We all know that lying requires a little intelligence.

        Just from pure common sense how would IEBC have been releasing figures that were alarming everybody and not for one second just check from the primary documents and see the numbers were multiplying by 8? Couldn’t one single person from the almost 15,000 stations and so many constituencies who submitted the figures notice that the number appearing on the screen was eight times bigger than the number they submitted. Afterall this was a big story all day. Nobody bothered to check? Come on. They were at it for 48 hours and nobody picked this until today when they were doing the manual stuff. That is a load of crap.

        All we know is that the electronic system was compromised to give false figures and god knows what other mess is going on in there.

        The real problem is Hassan was terrified is that if he accepts that the system was hacked he would open a pandora box. Questions like who hacked it, what were they plans, what else did they screw up would arise. So we know where Hassan is coming from. He has to cook things up as they go along to justify the whole mess Kenyans are seeing.

        Jansinteur,

        I raised the exact same question. I was telling them the numbers are evening out and it looks like a run-off could be the product of all these. They told me to forget what I see on the screen for now. The magic will be worked out by hook or crook and the disired numbers will be realised. Of course they know more than they can tell me and one thing they won’t tell me is what they plan to do about all these.

        As of yesterday when the manual thing started they had hope everything will be verified. When the agents were thrown out it raised major concerns and my guess is they have now found out what the whole plan is. But rest assured they are not sleeping on the job and the Hassan may be unable to execute but there is no doubt that Uhuru is the designated president by the “owners” of the country and they are ready to do it at any cost.

        We will see.

        Mzee,

        A lot of Nakuru is already in. Nakuru West, Nakuru East etc are in. I think it is Nakuru town which is not in yet. In Kiambu we have Gatundu North, Ruiru, Limuru and one more already in. I think Meru is the big one still out. For CORD Taita Taveta is all done but Mombasa is still out there. There is still parts of Western and Nyanza. I don’t know about Kilifi but I think they are not in yet. And then we still have parts of Nairobi.

      • As of 11.30 pm Kenyan time, Uhuru leads by around 220K votes from a high of more than 800K at one point . Whether the gap increases or continues shrinking remains to be seen.

        As for nefarious plots you allude to; here’s an interesting story.

        There was once a notorious dictator in Nigeria known as Sani Abacha. Abacha had ascended to power in a military coup after overturning results of an election that was said to have been won by popular business man Moshood Abiola.

        Abacha went on to become on of the most corrupt and ruthless dictators Nigeria had witnessed. His human rights abuses attracted worldwide condemnation and sanctions against the country.

        Concerned with widespread criticism against his leadership, Abacha decides to transition the nation to civilian rule and agrees to step down as the military ruler. Elections are scheduled and Abacha is one of the candidates, but he locks out the popular candidates including putting some on death row.

        Abacha was to compete against five candidates in the election. The widespread consensus then was that any of the five candidates would beat Abacha. Now he went ahead and bribed the candidates to step down in his favor and with a master stroke of genius Abacha had deceived Nigerians and the rest of the World! Abacha was now going to be elected unopposed as a civilian president and hence accusations of dictatorship would be invalid.

        A few days before his swearing in, he died of a sudden heart attack – allegedly while having sex with a prostitute.

        Call it divine intervention, karma etc, I can assure you the dark forces that want to rule this country will be defeated! Never wishing death on anyone, but just goes to show you can plot plot plot but one day you meet your Waterloo.

        Forgive for any typos was writing the post while in a hurry.

  11. Folks,

    Am I seeing this right, that most of the spoilt/rejected votes are from CORD and more so ODM strongholds or am I wrong in my observation?

    Was voter education ever conducted by IEBC apart from the 2 mock polls they carried out?

    • Now it looks like the final decision will boil down to which candidate commands a large number of ‘smart’ voters. The larger the number of a candidate’s ‘smart’ voters, the lesser will be her/his spoilt/rejected votes!

      The size of spoilt/rejected votes might as well decide this election!

      IEBC should really be ashamed for having neglected voter education despite the enormous sums of money it received specifically for this purpose!

      I hope some brave Kenyan will take IEBC to court to answer for charges of voter disenfranchisement!!

    • We will see how this thing goes but so far Raila and CORD are taking a beating. The percentages will tighten up as the numbers go up but I have checked the listings by counties and they are pretty uniform which is bad news for CORD. The alarming thing is that rejected and spoilt ballots are approaching 10% of the vote. That is more than double what Mudavadi and all the five other candidates put together has at the moment. IEBC is going to argue that the rejected and spoilt ballots are in all counties but this is going to be a problem for them. That seems to be the third candidate in this election. We could have a total of 1 million votes spoilt/rejected. That amounts to reducing the voter turn out by 10%. That is a scary thought.

      And apparently the BVR servers have now collapsed completely with all the data in there. Isaack Hassan could end up messing the whole election altogether.

      • How feasible is it for a candidate to lead from start to finish without the closest rival getting a chance or two in between to alternate the positions?

        This is only possible in a 100m dash, but not in a marathon-like race!!

      • Folks,

        It seems like we were very right. The spoilt/rejected votes will have to be factored into the percentages of as votes cast. Who would have known that some obscure clause in the constitution could have such huge impact but it may very well be. tnk, how long does it take returning officers to travel from Embakasi constituency to Bomas tallying centre? I hope the RO’s are not disappearing again like they did with Kivuiti and even turned their phones off and the old man has to rave on TV for days.

        Here is we go:

        http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/03/05/presidential-candidate-facing-criminal-charges-takes-lead-in-kenya-election/

      • adongo

        that obscure law as you correctly call it and am sure the drafters never even considered its impact, has in effect provided the best safety net against ballot tampering i.e if an agent spoils votes of competitors they also impact the vote of their candidate. especially in a case where the vote is too close to call that actually ends up not helping the candidate at all.

        i hope by the next election we can spend less than 5 bn and get electronic voting as an option so that all the cheeky RO and agents and kiraitu’s transporting ballot boxes, etc look for more gainful employment elsewhere

        anyway, back to the present case, after that whooping 9bn investment, we are back to manual tallying

        so here is what happened thus far

        – at most centers, the EVID and/or BVR kits failed, and they went back to the manual register

        – results submission have also been impacted by glitches and so now we are back to manual processes

        basically we have gone full cycle

        isnt this exactly what we said here, that more emphasis should be on perfecting a manual exercise especially considering how large this exercise would be, and then complement the effort with some form of automation.

        we covered this maneno

        in this thread
        https://deepcogitation.com/2012/10/18/iebc-what-the-heck-is-going-on/

        if i may be permitted to quote myself

        ==
        i have said before elsewhere that for this first election, its absolute foolishness for the IEBC to use a completely untested system (never mind the pilot runs these did not cover hotly contested presidential elections)

        everyone knows that sensitive ICT projects are implemented in phases and in many cases must run concurrent with manual processes for two reasons – i.e provide backup in case one system fails even if sporadic, and two for independently validating each other.
        ==

        we also discussed other similar or relevant issues over here

        https://deepcogitation.com/2012/12/27/printing-ballot-papers-is-there-a-scam/

      • tnk,

        Jubilee is already complaining about the fact that spoilt/rejected votes will be factored in the percentages as votes cast. They claim they are “invalid”. Of course we know that but they are also votes that were cast and the katiba is abundantly clear that to win in round 1 you need 50 + 1% of “ALL votes cast”. All that talk about winning by 60% to 35% is now gone through the window. I see this “ALL votes cast” thing if it becomes a determining factor for the run-off going to the Supreme Court.

        Hopefully with all the votes in, there will be no need for that. We don’t need the tyranny of the law to sort this matter but if it is needed all indicators are the words “ALL votes cast” will mean exactly that. If I cast my vote and you reject it that does not uncast it. And having such a big number of rejected votes is a responsibility the IEBC has to deal with.

        Apparently the Nairobi votes are still not in there as I thought. Coast is next to zero in there. Rift Valley except for may be 50% of Nakuru should be well presented. Abig chunk of Kiambu is in but still some to go. From the looks of non accounted for votes this race will be closer than what we have seen so far and a run off is almost guaranteed. Right now we are back to too early to call mode.

      • Adongo and tnk,
        This is the night that must be watched closest, with people running around with ballot papers made in china and hackers working on data stationed in ngong forest. The rigging machinery is on.

        Apart from that the double voting in parts of RVP and Central is something the IBEC has to sort out. The problem with the IBEC chaps is that they are a bunch of lawyers, former security officials etc with no experience in IT. Perhaps they have some good IT guys is the background, i dont know but the current failures puts that in doubt. They are perhaps are relying on safaricom engineers to do the job who in turn cannot fix the transmission problems. God knows whats going to happen if the databases crush and data lost without trace.

        Bottom line is that the so called tyranny of numbers is not working. My observation is that the turnout in RVP was not as great as expected. Then Mudavadi is being whitewashed by CORD in WEP (more then expected). This has actually killed the jubilee win. I believe that Jubl has no chance of pulling this off if they don’t do anything ugly ala kivuitu may he RIP.

        By the way planted chaps like PK are already conceding as if they were in the race in the first place. My guess is that he has “conceded” for some cheeky reason ie to help his brother. Who knows where they want to stuff his votes? Be afraid of such people very afraid.

        Meanwhile CORD has bagged two seats in Meru and one in Nakuru congrats

      • I am a regular reader of this site, but have never commented. As a person who loves this country deeply, i am concerned with the confusion around the IEBC.

        As of yesterday the jubilee folk were already celebrating and a lot of cord fellows dejected. But since yesterday some dramatic things seem to be happening. I understand that Cord sent emails to it’s members assuring them that all was well (as per the data they have; collected by their polling agents across the country), and supporters should remain calm.

        By this morning there are two conflicting reports – Cord are claiming the provisional results which had been relayed electronically had anomalies, and a recount is underway. The Jubiliee folks insist that the results were good, and it is electronic system which has failed but the status quo remains i.e. Uhuruto are romping to victory.

        So does any of you have the right information of what is really happening? I have also heard about the hackers in Ngong forest, but without any proof the allegations will be easily dismissed.

    • i think so far CORD is trailing badly, going on to 400,000 unfortunately IEBC is not releasing results by center or constituency so that we can make proper evaluation on trend.

      at this rate it looks like the gap will hit 500k very soon. the performance by the other 6 is dismal and insignificant to the extent that there will likely be no run off.

      what is not clear is the spread of vote, it would have been nice to know whether these are swing votes or stronghold

      on a side note its amazing that dida is right up there in the number with karua and Kenneth who started long before him and even walloping muite. considering that almost all of us have only seen this guy twice, thats quite something

      one has got to feel for karua. she has been on the trail for very long

      ==

      IEBC say that the results thus far are from 6000 centers 28,000 centers have not yet sent in results

      • tnk,

        There is another problem here with the spoilt/rejected votes which is now running towards 10%. Where do you put them when you calculate the percentage of how many votes candidates get versus votes cast. That may be a problem. Such a number should be negligible like 1% so that it can’t change the result. Now when you have 8% or so in that category, you have a problem. IEBC is heading to some problems. Let’s hope they come out with a honest result which Kenyans will accept.

        In terms of the spread I have seen one by counties it is not updated. It looks pretty uniform at around 12% at the time across the board except Western which was at 10% in some counties. But the percentage is going to shrink. All said CORD is not in a very spot. There hope now is to hang around and force a run-off.

      • adongo

        someone asked IEBC about the spoilt votes, and IEBC said they will not be included in the count. would have to look in the law whether that is correct or not

        i think it states 50% + 1 of votes cast, question is a vote cast = into ballot box or vote cast = valid vote?

      • Folks,

        I think that Raila is being slowly but surely preempted/cornered to concede to a possibly flawed electoral process.

        I urge Raila to keep his guard/shield up at all times till this electoral process is all over!! I have in mind here the spoilt/rejected votes. That figure is simply not acceptable however Isaak Hassan and Co. might want to spin it!!

      • tnk,

        Hassan said today that they will take into consideration spoilt/rejected votes when calculating the final percentages. That means Uhuru stands at around 51% and Raila at about 39%. That is still very dismal for CORD but it means the prospects of a run off are very real. People are confused about Hassan’s statement but the katiba says the winner must have 50% + 1 of “votes cast”. It does not say of “valid votes cast”. That I think is what Hassan is worried about. May be the writers of the constitution did not see a situation where you have spoilt/rejected voters of 7-8%. How about if half the votes are rejected, can one still be validly declared a winner based on the other half of the votes. That is Hassan’s nightmare.

        Also Nairobi is barely counted. I don’t know if that is because the polls went longer than in other places. I am sure about the coast but as of yesterday the last time they had the breakdown Mombasa county had about 1,500 votes counted. That is barely 1% at a time when they had counted about 12% of the national vote.

        Also Western I don’t know the percentage but Mudavadi is still at 125,000. I expect him to at least double that. I think the counting in Western is still a long way to go.

        CORD has done poorly so far but there are just too many confusing things. The next 10 hours or so could clear the picture.

      • `
        Folks,

        1) It is heading into a run-off.

        2) The rigging plot of Jubilee has fallen flat on its face. If anyone saw Hassan’s press conference where he fielded questions from journalists…you probably captured this historic episode well.

        3) FACT: Ignore the erroneous attribution of Uhuru Kenyatta’s vote at 52% (& Raila’s at 42%)

        4) That attribution ignores the input of votes which have been CAST, but rejected (currently above 300,000). It is anyone’s guess whose column such votes have likely been denied….but Hassan was forced to state THERE MUST be an audit to determined what exactly happened with such an abnormally huge number of spoilt votes…These votes remain significant in determination of the 50% + 1 rule.

        5) Uhuru’s correct attribution is barely lingering at 50% with 5.8 million cast votes counted…yet it is most of CORD’s votes still out there. We are looking at more than 10 million total.

        6) It is obvious both candidates will end in the 40s…with none reaching the 50% + 1 which some dark forces were desperately trying to force…at great pain and right in front of the entire world…talk of audacious, impunity merchants!!!!

        7) These folks were planning to rig this election by audaciously ending it in round 1…but the plan has entirely collapsed….while not redistributing the spoilt votes to anyone…the 10% spoilt votes will raise the total aggregate cast (the 50% +1 question)…hence the impending run-off.

        8) Isaak Hassan’s reading of the riot act to IEBC officials (at the prodding of foreign journalists) has also messed the rigging game plan of these folks. By subtly reminding any presiding officer, returning officer, or country & regional election officers that they would legally carry their own cross(es)…it is clear there’s ‘non-cooperation’ from some quarters. We have always noted here at DC, that the failure to prosecute those who bungled the 2007 election is one of the greatest mistakes…and here it is…audaciously trying to rear its ugly head yet again.

        9) The sheer time delay has attracted more eyes…and more IT experts…and put people’s & companies’ reputation(s) at stake…and folks like Hassan have already started distancing themselves from blame…spilling beans in the process — like confessing the entire Kilifi vote-suppression operation…which Hassan has admitted publicly……was instigated by state security –not IEBC!


        10) Prodded by local and international journalists, Hassan told the world that it is security officers who told IEBC officials in Kilifi (not IEBC Commission or secretariat) to close polling stations “in the name of MRC insecurity”…and asked voters to “return tomorrow”…only for such voters to realize they were duped into not voting.

        11) Hassan in essence is recusing himself from blame in the obvious vote-suppression of Kilifi…where polling stations were closed long before the mandated 5 pm. To illustrate its callousness, some IEBC and security casualties had to be sacrificed (killed) in this dark operation…This voter suppression happened in one of the most populated counties at the coast with more than 300,000 registered voters.

        12) I think this tabia of destabilizing the country through forceful entry (or hanging onto power) needs to be put to a complete end. The voice of Kenyan voters needs to be respected.

      • this is ECK deja vu all over again

        same old electoral misconduct (stuffed/fake ballots), etc. and now there are huge gaps in result transmission. vote supression in CORD strongholds.

        IEBC need to understand the corelation between delayed transmission from some centers and associated tampering.

        however what is unclear is why despite all the IT investment and resources available, that its still possible for some guys to falsify results.

        i would have thought that IEBC, put in place secure parallel processes that can detect any malpractice

        well anyway lets wait and see

        but from the mars website http://election2013.marsgroupkenya.org/results 5m votes in, more than 5 m still outstanding, and jubilee have exhausted their strongholds in the 5m counted

      • IEBC announce it will be “votes cast” i.e will include spoilt/rejected votes. Job you are right, that scheme of messing up ballots is going to backfire.

        any rogue poll agent can add a mark on a ballot paper thus invalidating it.

      • job,

        It looks to me that when all votes are actually in both candidates will be under 50%. Uhuru was at his highest 58% yesterday and at that time Raila was 38%. That is a 20% spread.

        Right now almost 24 hours alter Uhuru is at 53% and Raila at 42% and that is before they factor in the spoilt/rejected votes. Raila has climbed up 4% points and Uhuru has come down 5% points. That is a 9% point turn around. The only explanation I can imagine for that is that the counting started in areas where Uhuru was very strong and the situation has since changed. All these with about half the votes counted. I see this thing coming to a 48-49% for Uhuru and a round a 46-47% for Raila and that will be before they factor in the rejected votes.

        They are arguing about Hassan’s statement that spoilt/rejected votes will factor in the total percentages. Hassan has his hands tied because the constitution says the winner must recieve 50 +1 % of “all votes cast” and does not mention recieve 50 +1% of “all valid votes cast”. Votes rejected/spoilt are votes cast they not have to be recieved by anyone. May be in future they can change the constitution to stay categorically that the first round winner must recieve 50 + 1% of all “valid votes cast”.

        Better still we need to fix this situation of having rejected votes as the third candidate in the race with what may very well be very close to 1 million votes. Luckily in the run -off whoever gets the most votes is the winner. I think the numbers are going to get closer and we will simply need to go to the run-offs without any drama.

        It is frightening that they spent Kshs 7 billion to buy kits which are essentially useless. Mara the clerks forgot the passwords. Mara there was no electcity. Mara the servers died. Yada Yada. Just a fiasco.

      • Folks

        Serious problems.

        First Ruto and his colleagues have addressed press at Bomas with complaints and statements that sound like they want to intimidate the IEBC. They seem worried no they are talking about rejected votes and whether they should be part of the total etc…

        Cord folks seem calm and quietly confident.

        There are all manner of fishy things happening… Strange ballot boxes, stations with more votes counted than registered (rift valley), transmitted results are different from those at polling stations, inexplicable delays in transmissions, etc…

        I will write more!

      • RR

        it looks like some guys compromised the electronic system and may have fake ballots and what not

        but it seems that after the final count, all agents and observers independently relayed results which are verifiable.

        the RO will meet at IEBC and will have to present the correct results or explain any discrepancies. each RO will be held personally responsible.

        the other thing is that like adongo mentions, jubilee peaked at 58% or rather they started with jubilee strongholds.

        with about 50% to go, the lead can only go down.

        based on the current outcomes even without considering rejected votes, the winner will get 49% and the runner up 44%

        i think it was a great idea to allow a few days for vote tallying. it of course generates tension, but the IEBC together with party leaders especially jubilee and CORD, need to constantly engage and calm the public.

        statements like these are good (you might need to have a facebook account)

        http://www.facebook.com/groups/odmchungwamojamaishabora/permalink/345557152211226/

  12. All is not well in Kilifi. 6 Policemen including the OCPD Killed, voting disrupted in Chumani, Chonyi, Ganze, Roka Maweni, etc. There are stations that were closed early and others weren’t opened at all….

    • George Washington Mulan Omondi on Wiper has won Alego Constituency, defeating Yinda of ODM. In Alego, William Oduol got 54,000 against 2,000 of Asamba, In Rarieda he got 42,000 against 2,000 of Asamba.

  13. i think the cost of the BVR/EVID failure in this election is going to be much bigger than that of the defunct ECK. but the peace initiatives are going to overcome this and therefore kenyans may be more forgiving.

    IEBC and the BVR/EVID have goofed up big time, like was stated here very early in the game. ICT projects have a high failure rate when not implemented properly and this was one such project,

    • Folks,

      Does anybody know what the heck is going on? Hassan has stopped the provisional results and now they say they will do the counting manually. Does that mean they will start the counting and announcements afresh from square one? This is beginning to look worse than the Kivuiti circus. And the poor man (RIP) is waiting to be buried after the election. At this rate this could take a month or more.

      Uhuru has already been declared the president elect by some. It looks like the polls being relayed whether accurate or not are not representative. That is fine as long as in the end all votes are counted. Then we have this nonsense of the servers collapsing every other second. Now they want to go back to manual.

      Whatever the results the IEBC is busy creating conditions where Kenyans may find it hard to accept them. Everything is in chaos. In a place like Mombasa county less than 10% of the vote has been reported. Siaya the same. I saw Orengo leading in the Senate race with a tally of 23,000 plus votes. The next person had something like 1,000 votes. That is a county of more than 300,000 votes. I don’t know how many of the presidential votes they have counted there But that is what the IEBC was reporting about 6 hours ago. That means we have less than 10% of the vote there counted and/or reported. In other places we have 50% of the votes already counted. CORD votes in Ukambani have been counted so far in good numbers and may be parts of Nairobi. So this is still a wide open game.

      We knew Hassan’s competency was questionable but nobody saw this coming with all the money they have been given. This is turining into a very dangerous national scandal and it could be very costly. The good news is that the candidates are preaching calm and patience. There are limits to those kinds of things. This election has to be done right and whoever wins needs a clean win. Why is that so hard to figure out.

      • Adongo et al.,

        This second attempt at daylight robbery has been botched spectacularly.

        My crunching of numbers from areas IEBC hadn’t previously reported places CORD ahead of Jubilee…I will later (tonight) work on margins…then factor in rejected ballots to estimate the percentage attributions.

        Forgetting the dirty trickery…if there is anyone to squeak past 50% on clean votes, it is RAO, not Uhuru, period! But then…we already have reports of stuffed ballots in Meru, Mombasa, Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and other enclaves. We are likely headed to a run-off…where angry but patriotic masses are likely to express their wrath — this time without the kind of voter suppression in Kilifi. The voting patterns in the country speak for themselves…even in places they’re trying too hard to rig, like NEP.

  14. was impressed to hear Alfred Mutua state that the BVR systems failed today, it deesn’t matter whether they worked yesterday, last year or what not. They were supposed to work today and thats what counts and they did not.

    Quite a departure from when he was not yet CORDed.

    Same message from Aden Dualle, and others.

    The message from CORD main party ODM has been consistent from early years of reform movement to date. Just give us Credible, Efficient, Genuine, Working systems and we will be ok. Its the compromised, manipulated, skewed, corrupt, inept etc systems that we have always been against.

    It is such systems that sustain and promote status quo

    • It is important to note and map where the failures are being reported. If there is a pattern…of system failure in certain places whereas efficiency in others…then it automatically becomes an issue.

  15. Voters in Siaya and other parts making a huge mistake

    On finding that the BVR and EVID systems are not working some are boycotting. They need to be persuaded to use the available systems to vote, there is no other rememdy

  16. All the issues that were raised on this forum regarding the elections have been witnessed

    Logisitic issues
    – BVR kit failure in some centers
    – mismatched documents
    – Missing names on manual register
    – Late starts in a number of centers

    Success stories
    – Excellent security infrastructure / police deployment
    – Most kenyans lined up early, some started queuing more than 12 hours earlier
    – voting so far very peaceful, very calm but enthusiastic crowds
    – Overall IEBC very well prepared and logistics moving on smoothly

    Violence
    – Garissa and Coast – incidence of violence and death reported

  17. Members: please follow DeepCogitation Admin on twitter – We are now revealing some political facts of great significance

    Fact 1:
    Dida’s party ARK has only 3 candidates namely , The president, deputy president and a County Ward Rep in Mandera. Thats all

    Fact 2:
    For a president to control or have a say on the agenda in parliament, he must have sufficient number of supporters either from the core party or from pre or post alliances and coalitions

    Herebelow are the number of aspirants vying for MP in descending order

    ODM – 249
    TNA – 214
    URP – 138
    UDF – 127
    WDM -97
    Ford-K – 92
    KNC – 83
    KANU – 80
    Narc-K – 66

    From this its clear that only the individual parties, ODM and TNA are in a position to have a fair chance to getting parliament majority

    The alliances of CORD, Jubilee and Amani also stand a great chance of parliament majority

    All other parties, alliances or presidential candidates stand absolutely no chance of parliament majority and are thus setting themselves to be sitting duck, or puppet lame presidents, bowing to the whims of an empowered parliament under the new constitution.

    To put this in perspective, consider how hard it was for both Kibaki and Raila to try to set the agenda for a local tribunal, think about it.

    Fact 3:
    The pattern of party/coalition strengths repeats itself over the Senator and Woman Rep postions with the number of candidates in numerical strength being as follows
    ODM
    TNA
    URP
    UDF
    WDM
    KNC
    KANU
    Ford-K
    Narc-K

    Fact 4:
    Total number of candidates vying on individual parties inclusing the County Ward Reps
    ODM – 1489
    TNA – 1310
    UDF – 859
    URP – 848
    WDM – 644
    Ford-K – 580
    KANU – 442
    KNC – 428
    Narc-Kenya – 426
    DP – 378
    plus others

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