Why Uhuru is not going to Hague (ICC): Enter Pariah State

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Before the last election, Uhuru’s biggest dilemma was whether to run for Presidency, or back a trusted ally who could help him out of the ICC albatross around his neck.

Back then, Kibaki thought Uhuru’s run was a terrible idea for the nation, politically and aesthetically – instead preferring a neutral (non-Gikuyu) ally like Musalia Mudavadi. Uhuru made the intrepid decision to reject Kibaki’s overtures and run. The former was right about one thing –only President Uhuru would go the whole hog (even if it means bankrupting Kenya) to save Uhuru! No one else would have taken that risk.

Without considering the mechanics of how Uhuru forced his way into the Presidency, he is now actively engaged in using all Kenyan state facilities and resources to subvert justice at the ICC.

These first 200 days of Uhuru’s Presidency have shown us one thing – he will not have qualms bankrupting Kenya in a bid to rescue himself. He will not mind exploiting tragedies such as the Westgate terrorist act (even if it means turning a blind eye to intelligence reports) to argue his case for excusal from the dock. The government of Kenya is singularly focused on saving its President from the ICC. This ICC project has taken precedence over all service delivery to Kenyans.

Signs from the nascent ICC-besieged administration of Uhuru Kenyatta ominously indicate tough times ahead. There is already an emergence of a paranoid and repressive police state.

Uhuru’s government has actively commenced on curtailing media freedoms through a dark-alley repressive law passed by a fraction of Jubilee sycophant-legislators.

The mutilation of Kenya’s brand new Constitution is on course, through legislative maneuvers akin to those enacted during the Jomo Kenyatta and Moi administrations.

Reluctance to fully fund devolution is now vogue.

It is evident that significant gains in judiciary reforms are quickly being reversed – with reemergence of political judgments of yesteryears.

There is real potential for socio-political instability, over-taxation of citizens, financial turmoil, and more Westgate-like security risks. Ethnic tensions are palpable and regional instability within the East African Community (EAC) is developing –with the deliberate attempt to alienate Tanzania from the partnership. There is a slow but sure shift of Kenya towards becoming a pariah state. Elections are indeed having consequences.

Kenyatta is very likely not going to the Hague!  The writing is clearly on the wall. Like he defied counsel from elders like Kibaki not to run for presidency, Uhuru will go headstrong in defying his scrutiny by international judicial systems.

He believes he will again triumph and run roughshod over the ICC process. The convenient tool for this blatant impunity is a fake Pan-Africanist hyperbole, carefully messaged in anti-imperialist and racist rhetoric. That is incidentally the very tactic tried unsuccessfully by former Libyan dictator, the late Gadhafi. Kenyatta has clearly made up his mind that – as President – he is not sitting behind the dock in a foreign court.

Mark these words, Uhuru will not subject himself to the kind of ignominy that William Ruto is currently undergoing. He will not sit to listen (watched by the entire public of Kenya) to testimonies from Mungiki insiders – narrating his role in plotting the murder, persecution, and forced displacement of fellow citizens from the Luo, Luhya and Kalenjin ethnic communities. Uhuru has rightly figured that the humiliating trial process will likely not clear his name, but soil it irreversibly – with daily reminders (for years continuously) about his dalliance with the criminal Mungiki in the latter’s ethnic killing enterprise.

Whereas Uhuru’s defense might be confident that Bensouda (OTP) has thin evidence on his substantive trial,  damning evidence regarding witness assassinations, witness intimidation and witness bribery, might prove too costly of a risk in attending trial. Attendance of trial means prolonged absence from State House. In a dramatic country like Kenya, such circumstances may impose humongous problems to Kenyatta’s already shaky presidency. Uhuru’s political backers would not wish for his extended absence away from Kenya – leaving the potent and authoritative William Ruto temporarily acting as President.

Uhuru has already released a number of trial balloons and seen how they rise or fail to rise respectively. His defense lawyers have tested the legal waters in the trial chamber. They have met an atypical non-pliant court. They already know Uhuru’s applications for attendance through video-link and for permanent stay both have no chance of success based on prior rulings (in the Lubanga case and in the Appeals Chamber ruling in Ruto’s excusal application).

These are the insights that inform the kind of volatile anti-ICC speech Uhuru gave recently at the poorly attended AU Summit in Addis Ababa. He knows he is not going to meet those judges. The vain deferral mission through the UN Security Council is just but a time-buying measure in the larger absconding matrix.

Besides these expensive diplomatic maneuvers to rescue Kenyatta, the socio-political and legal framework for the post-warrant period is already being quietly worked in the Jubilee-controlled Parliament and Senate. Kenya’s brand new Constitution is already being dismantled by the legislative vote to de-ratify Kenya from the Rome Statutes (currently a part of Kenya’s Constitution). It will reduce chances of impeachment (or arrest) when Kenyatta ultimately fails to appear in ICC. In the process, citizens will remain vulnerable to repressive and fascist acts by the state. These active legislative steps are the more evidence of Uhuru’s impending failure to appear in ICC.

Concurrently, the Jubilee government is already gagging media. The latest media-control law (modeled along China’s bureaucratic control over press) is explicit warning to journalists. They are being told to tone down their reportage of “election consequences” lest they be slapped with Sh 1 million individual fines, with their parent companies paying Sh 10 million. But what is more troubling is the pattern whereby gross acts of terrorism (ala Westgate) are being milked to benefit Kenyatta’s “ICC problem”. The last attack brought Kenyatta obvious reprieve, relaxing his impending trial schedule. This poses the question whether the president has any impetus left to act to secure the country from other attacks. If it benefits him to turn a blind eye, he would do it again and again. The socio-economic consequences of a Kenyatta arrest warrant are not too hard to predict. The making of a pariah state has started with Kenyatta wrapping himself with a bloodied Kenyan flag. Kenyans should realistically brace for interesting times ahead.

[** Blog Admin appends the following Materials to this excellent article **]

Cover letter on deferral

Memo on deferral

Victim’s rep submission

And then we also have the bill that effectively crushes NGOs

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10 comments on “Why Uhuru is not going to Hague (ICC): Enter Pariah State

  1. Things are not going well at all for the government on its plans to get the ICC cases deferred. Despite the daily nation propaganda a few weeks ago that the UK was going to sponsor a motion for the deferral of the ICC cases and that it had the backing of all the permanent members except for France. It now seems like the government has only secured the support of one permanent member of the security council, China. The mood is not any different among the non-permanent members of the UNSC with most of them being either indifferent or completely opposed.

    I am wondering how the Nation is going to un-spin its previous “Kenya has the support of the UNSC” articles with their sense of inevitability. Even if the veto were not in play, the prospects of a deferral look decidedly bleak for Uhuru. Robert Mugabe did better when British backed sanctions aimed at the Mugabe administration were opposed by China & Russia….That doesn’t paint a rosy picture of Kenya’s diplomats whose sole mandate of late has been the ICC.

    Whatever warnings were being given before the elections are coming to pass, it is not as easy as the Hague duo were making it seem. I am still following the developments keenly

    • Siguda, the Nation and local papers do not have to un-spin anything because the majority of their readers do not care for the truth and maybe don’t remember anything after more than a few days.

      Another thing is that many journalists in the local Kenyan papers and a surprisingly large numbers in international papers have been compromised. Their paid mission is to produce anti-ICC, pro-Uhuru/Ruto articles. Sometimes they do not while ignoring facts. Even if reading international papers, be very careful with anything where the “correspondent” is based in Nairobi.

      Job, I think, wrote some comments on the lobbying that has been going on. It has been amazing to have a direct experience of this lobbying. A friend of mine who sometimes covers Africa for one of the top three papers in the USA has been offered serious money for “positive articles” and links to “useful people”. We had some discussions on this, and they ended with his forwarding the details of some of these offers to the OTP. From our subsequent discussions, and he talking to his friend, I think major American newspapers might not report on the ICC issues unless it is absolutely solid material

  2. Despite all that talk about ‘facing the bull by the horns’ i think uhuru has made up his mind not to honor his date with the ICC. if he goes to the hague he suffers alone, and if he doesn’t go we all suffer. how unfair is that? anyway, as job pointed out, it’s also highly unlikely that he would face the same court and judges that he has crudely vilified over and over again. who in the right mind does that?
    caught between the devil (ICC) and the deep blue sea (international fugitive) and with all deferral plans hitting a brick wall, muthamaki will soon have to make his intentions public. the sooner he does it the better.

  3. So all the noise about referral is all but dead in the water. When Uhuru and company were told that it would be difficult to have the matter work out their way they thought it was a joke. Now the stone has hit them right in the face. They are bleeding like hell and in the interim ICC is going on full steam.

    What I love about the ICC is that they are not detracted by all the side shows from the Uhuruto mob.

    I want to disagree with Job. I think that Uhuru is too cowardly not to go to the Hague. He will throw all manner of tantrums but come the D-Day and he will be in The Hague.

    Obviously he is being lied to by the likes of Museveni that he is too big for the ICC. Truth of the matter is that Museveni cannot protect him. The same Museveni has actually taken one Joseph Kony to the very court that he claims is oppressive to Africans.

    Another thing that is now clear is that fact that Uhuru is using Ruto as a guinea pig. He wants Ruto to test the waters for him. I believe that Ruto did not know that things would turn out this way. But now that he is under the bus he must try saving himself.

    Its going to be an interesting 2014. Tighten your seat belts.

    • Mzee, an interesting one. Like Job, I don’t see him going there, and I think the implications for Kenyans are as per Job’s article. The indicators are very strong. Therefore, in my view Kenyans should start to prepare for that possibility even if they hope/think it will not happen.

      • I agree with you folks that with every passing day (or more aptly, delay), the possibility of Uhuru going to the ICC becomes dimmer and dimmer, for a variety of reasons.

        A) as Job points out, the witness intimidation is a crime in a class of its own and for which there is no other/alternative remedy especially if the suspect holds the highest office in the land.
        B) the dynamics/trappings of the “big office” and “big man” have not just crept in gradually as they do for most people, but in this case have completely flooded the head, only Ruto has escaped this since he quite early in the process has been stuck in the rut, whereas Uhuru has been pampered and pandered to by each and every Jubilee sycophant in this world and probably the next as well. It can only get worse. Note also that just like in primary school days, it was always the weaker ones who would be loudly instigating and prodding the other folks to fight each other, knowing fully well they will bolt if things go wrong, leaving the fighters to live with the consequences.
        C) the security forces are permanently and firmly behind him (explains why he looked aside as the westgate fiasco unfolded and todate insists KDF have done no wrong – he needs these guys on his side and wont rock the boat unnecessarily unless he has better options) – its these organs that will either be required to hand him over or conversely protect him ferociously, considering the DNA of the head honchos we can safely assume they have the right TNA ( 🙂 hehehehe )
        D) most worrisome however is that since Ruto has done like a month non stop and will most likely do three months non stop (once again don’t laugh but hehehe we now have for the first time a week-end Deputy President note you are free to use any variation that sounds better to you Weakened Deputy or even Wicke(n)d Deputy) So we have a Deputy President who only shows up on Weekends. That is the fate that awaits the Uhuru and for him to be a Weekend President, that surely spells doom for his handlers. In retrospect, they should have just let him go and stick with the alternating two week attendance on and off that they had successfully negotiated. Now the courts will need to catch up and will therefore require him to stay there maybe for 4 months

        For Ruto to run the shop for a whole month, and yet he has already been briefed at the ICC that his tribulations are due to the likes of Gichangi, and he has to chair security meetings while his boss is away, now how can I put this delicately …. awkward!! and totally embarrassing …. That will be some of the most painful meetings that will take place. Almost all Jubilee appointees to office or current holders are part of the network that setup evidence against Ruto, he has been firmly told so as the evidence continues to be gathered. He will soon be meeting some of these characters on his Weekend duties

        I think something is about to hit the fan, and will be watching from the spectators stands as events unfold

        Of course bear in mind the balancing act has to be executed flawlessly

        Because thus far, as long as it appears that Kenya (the suspects really) are cooperating with the ICC, then there is no need for diplomatic gloves to come off and bizness continues as usual. However at the first sign of non-cooperation (which is why there is so much desperation to have someone else be seen to force the non cooperation – AU anyone, China, Uganda, Sudan, UNSC, anybody out there?) then the whole dynamics within the diplomatic sphere will instantly change. Its funny, but as long as they are suspects and cooperating no-one cares, the moment they stop, they become fugitives and the tables turn. At that point, all existing relationships take a new dimension, some will freeze up, some will turn away, and of course China will sink the claws in deeper. It must be interesting to go to bed with a headache and wake up in the morning with a migraine and to repeat this everyday 7 days a week, month after month. One begins to wonder whether its worth it?

        And no, don’t watch this space, please carry an umbrella, that stuff flying won’t be pleasant. In my view, the stage is being set for dictatorship.

        What do you folks think?

      • Blog Admin, Dibbley and the rest,
        The stage for dictatorship has been set. A first and willing participant in this attack has been the media. They have just but abdicated their watchdog duties and decided that misinforming the public with half truths about the ICC will somehow, miraculously help the Uhuruto mob from the fangs of the ICC. As if this self-censorship is not enough, the Jubilee crowd have gone ahead and put in place a draconian media law to spice things up. The media is being told to fuata nyayo or else. What do you think our now pocketed and zipped up zombie journalist will do? Obviously cry like babies then just follow the laid down nyayo. It’s irritating that every time they are shafted by the Jubilee mob they come back running to the wanainchi for help. As soon as the wanainchi sort them out, they go back to their old deceptive ways of singing unnecessary praise for their tormentors. Something happened to the vibrant media from the day election day and they have not been the same ever since.

        Then we have the empty headed Jubilee legislators who are not helping Uhuruto situation by passing all manner of funny laws. You might think that we are in the 80s once again with Kariuki Chotaras running around like headless chicken. Jubilee with its so called tyranny of numbers have brought only two pieces of legislation to the floor i.e. VAT and Media bills. Both have been rejected by the public. Where are we headed then?

        But coming back to Uhuru, I still believe that he will appear at The Hague because he has too much to lose by not doing so. Unlike Ruto who even though very rich has not invested heavily abroad, the Uhuru family is involved in a lot of international business transactions with the western countries. Might it be investments in tea, coffee, diary, logging, real estate…. and stashing away of cash. China, however conniving will not support the balk of the business. China pays lip service but do nothing…yaani, they let you load your gun then bolt before the shot out begins. Ukifa ufe kifo chako.

        So the very idea of being confined to Kenya and a few African and Asian countries is terrifying to Uhuru Kenyatta. That’s why he will go to The Hague. All I know is that he won’t turn up on the Day of Judgment for fear of being detained. We all know that as soon as a guilty verdict is rendered he will have to be arrested immediately and put behind bars. That will be the final humiliation.

        But supposing he abscond the whole trail then he will have to bankrupt the country to compensate for the loss in the Kenyatta business. I’m certain that he will do a Mobutu. That’s creating a situation where there is no difference between his personal account and the government coffers. Uhuru will simply live lavishly while Kenyans suffer. And forget about anyone else winning elections, it will be rigged worse than Moi and Kibaki put together. For it will be his only protection against the Hague machine. In the interim, witnesses will disappear one by one the Nicholas Biwott/Robert Ouko way.

        You see, the man has nothing to lose having been shunned by all western leaders. None of them even want to be seen besides Mr. Kenyatta. He is left to stroll around with the likes of Museveni, Bashir and Kagame. Even Botswana has made it clear that if he absconds, they won’t have anything with him to do.

  4. This is great Job, and is what the trash Kenyan media should be reporting but alas they are stuck in propagating propaganda driven by ethno policitik, impunity and corruption. As much as I detest any form of media control by the state, I think what the Mpigs have done may be justifiable dose to wake the media from slumber or dismantle the cartel running it so that new, independent and ethical alternatives can emerge.
    It is unbelievable that the country is being driven to a pariah state by two criminals and their sycophants as the media cheers them on.

  5. `
    The intricate details why Uhuru fears going to the Hague probably have more to do with witness interference, including assassinations:

    Back last year, Uhuru Kenyatta sued the Star Newspaper for this image below which captured him at the Hague in the company of Dennis Itumbi (accused by ICC of hacking into OTP witness emails) and Joseph Njuguna Thuo the alleged “hitman” contracted to assassinate Mungiki insider witnesses.

    Thuo had apparently gone to the Hague to work-out ways of getting into a leadership position in Kiambu county.

    Alleged Kiambu/Mungiki hitman Joseph Njenga Thuo

    Thuo’s leadership credentials may not be fully known but at least what is in the public domain is:

    * Spent 6 months at Kamiti while facing serious charge of robbery with violence in 2005

    • Has been previously charged with murder, robbery with violence, impersonation of a police officer, illegal possession of a firearm, extortion, among other serious charges. Thuo has been close to Mungiki leader Maina Njenga, and is claimed to have offered some sort of legal advice to the latter in the past

    • Thanks to Star’s investigative report, Joseph Njuguna Thuo apparently extorts money (in mafia or Mungiki style) from Asian and other businessmen in Thika, Ruiru, Juja, Gatundu, and surrounding areas. In many of these instances, he impersonates a police officer

    • Thuo operates this criminal enterprise under the guise of a formal real estate business called Thuo Investments; in which he partnered with former Kiambu County Chairman, the late Bonface Njenga Mweru.

    • Thuo’s business partner Mweru was assassinated in 2011 – a murder in which Thuo is currently being investigated for orchestrating. Thuo said he sought Kenyatta’s endorsement to enter into the Kiambu County Assembly in Uhuru’s backyard (likely replacement of Mweru)

    • Thuo is still under CID investigation in the murder of his business partner Mweru. Central Province AP boss Joseph Keitany said Mweru’s killers rode in a Silver Prado Land Cruiser belonging to Thuo and used a Ceska pistol (common among undercover cops). Nobody including Thuo has been prosecuted in the murder so far.

    • Former Mungiki leader Maina Njenga publicly claimed last year that Thuo was sent to assassinate him over matters related to Uhuru Kenyatta’s ICC case. Thuo was actually accosted by Maina’s bodyguards at a Church compound with a loaded Ceska gun (the same type used to kill Mweru).

    Here (below) is the rest –plagiarized from my own write-up in JUKWAA.

    http://www.jamiiforums.com/kenyan-politics/506057-revealed-uhuru-kenyatta-maina-njenga-and-njenga-thuo-mungiki-and-the-icc-fallout.html

    • `
      In the Draconian Media Law drafted by Kenyatta and his cabinet, rubber-stamped by Jubilee (TNA & URP) MPS, even NGOs have not been spared.

      Under this law, Public Benefits Organizations (PBOs) receiving funding from abroad will face the axe –unless the Jubilee government sanctions all foreign funding.

      This crippling of NGOs naturally means reduced services to the public…lost funding opportunities for public projects…and lost jobs in a country reeling with high youth unemployment.

      It is such paranoia that will take Kenya back to stone age. Moi’s paranoia crippled Kenya socio-economically. What will Uhuru’s paranoia (after the arrest warrant is issued) take Kenya?

      Check out the portions of the law below (boxed in red) which cut funding to the foreign funded NGOs.


      http://www.scribd.com/doc/181363672/Draconian-Miscellaneous-Amendment-Act-2013

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