Kenya Losing It’s Seafront To Somalia?

Folks

I have seen this story of Kenya fighting over sea border with Somalia but I really never followed it because I was thinking how in hell do we lose our sea that we have had forever to non-existent dysfunctional government of Mogadishu which doesn’t even control the rest of Somalia.

So I was pretty confident that this was an easy walkover for Jamhuri. I underestimated the incompetency of those who run our country.

Right now it looks I was dead wrong. Somalia took the case to International Criminal Justice Court (ICJ) and the incompetent Kenya AG and his team have been doing nothing. Now when the case comes Kenya is asking for postponement so that they can hire lawyers to represent Jamhuri.

What a bunch of morons we have here. What is our AG’s job and qualifications? Don’t we have people there who can handle a case like this?

When you look at the whole picture, Somalia has a good case and they are very confident the ICJ will rule in their favour. Kenya is terrified after paying very little attention to the matter. Kenya was expecting the African Union to intervene on their behalf the way they did with ICC. Somalia has said no. They want to go to the ICJ.

Here is the really scary thing. If we lose this case as can see in the map below we could very will lose 42% of our sea water surface and access to it.

This could also mean if the maps are designed in such a way that the ships from Europe and the rest of the world have to cross Somalia seawater before entering Kenyan sea water then we are a landlocked country.

So if we lose some or all of the water we have to negotiate on the boundaries of international waters. That we can win and should.

All countries around the world have to fight to define international waters in their water space. Kenya has a good case on that.

Here is the deal. If we declare parts of the Indian Ocean on the Kenyan seafront as international waters we and other countries have access to it.

But Kenya cannot police it unless there are international crimes being committed which Kenya has been asked and tasked by the international community to deal with and stop.

If we lose the whole case, Somalia will have to allow us to use its water for shipping into our seafront if they grant permission and charge us some crazy fee. And poor SGR will be in a landlocked country. Oh dear.

If you think I am joking, look at the map.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-09-03-maritime-row-kenya-writes-to-icj-seeking-postponement-of-hearing/

The one thing that people don’t know about Somalia is that it has one of the longest coastline and access to seawater in the world.

Somalia has 3,500 Kilometers of coastline. Give me any country which is even close and tell me what they have done with it.

If people in that country could have figured out what to do, Somalia will today be one of the richest places on earth.

Somalia is capable of building a port system that could serve the whole of Africa and our many international shipping and trade partners in Asia, Europe, the Americas etc.

Look at the stretch of that coastline. For trade it could have been a global magnet. And the amount of fish just lying under that water undisturbed as Somali folks are busy with their stupid piracy business on the sea.

And to think that Somalia is a community of one ethnic group called Somalia but just divided in clans. They all speak one language and have one religion.

And then to let this gem of Africa go to complete waste because of clan politics and now the vice of religious extremism and Al Shabaab is finishing them and they want to grab our sea. Forget it.

Don’t we already have our soldiers in Somali protecting the same government grabbing our country. Tell them you are moving the soldiers from Kismayu to Mogadishu to come sort this matter out then we take it from there.

 

 

By adongoogony Posted in kenya

14 comments on “Kenya Losing It’s Seafront To Somalia?

  1. Pingback: Kenya Losing It’s Seafront To Somalia? — The Real Deal – Truth Troubles

  2. Adongo

    I had not really paid much attention to this story but this weekend decided to do some search. Well this is mostly about oil and gas exploration

    See this map published by Ke govt

    As you can see, the disputed border eats into about 7 of those zones/blocks marked for exploration.

    I was wondering why Somalia with almost 10 times the coastline of Kenya would fight for such a relatively small piece, well guess what, its a huge deal. Read on

    Already Kenya has I believe sold these blocks off to large corporations and this was probably in the period 2010 – 2014 (explains why we had to be president in 2017 by any means necessary) and in the years after that. Meaning money has already changed hands, pockets lined and in most cases has been quickly consumed and the hand outstretched for the next big kill. Of course the oligarchy is firmly invested in this and we know the present regime is beholden to that oligarchy

    Anyhoo, that money cannot be paid back.

    This 2014 report by Deloitte gives you an indication of the players

    Pages 9 through 15 of the pdf document found on this link

    http://docplayer.net/20731674-The-deloitte-guide-to-oil-and-gas-in-east-africa-uniquely-structured.html

    Although not in the disputed section this is a sample of a company that was listed.
    See Page 14 and 15 of this document

    https://s2.q4cdn.com/805399140/files/doc_presentations/2017/Erin-Energy-Company-Presentation-(April-17).pdf

    I believe they have scaled back some and may altogether pull out of Kenya.

    https://www.petroleumafrica.com/erin-suspends-kenya-program/

    Regrettably as you mentioned, Kenya has not mounted any serious legal defense or case and it looks very likely that Somalia will either win this case entirely or in the very least a compromise down the middle of the disputed section will happen.

    Note however that cases at the ICJ can take anything from 5 to 20 years to conclude and effect. Meanwhile no company will touch a project in disputed areas meaning loss of potential revenue fro both countries. Well Somalia in this regard has nothing to lose yet since they do not have any such agreement yet with the dysfunctional government and all the other crises they deal with

    I bet Uhuru is in a hurry to pass the hot potato over to the next oligarchy sponsored candidate and move on to Jameson retirement special

    Also check out these articles

    https://globaloilmarket.com/recent-kenya-somali-diplomatic-spat/

    https://www.hiiraan.com/news4/2014/Sept/56322/oil_gas_an_equidistant_line_could_settle_somalia_kenya_maritime_dispute.aspx

    https://www.icj-cij.org/en/case/161

    Like

    • Admin,

      I just show that update you posted and now I am nervous.

      This thing has to be sorted out very quickly.

      “Both countries claim control over a 100,000-square-kilometer area in the Indian Ocean that is said to be rich in natural resources.”

      100,000 square kilometres of our most valuable asset we have as a nation in terms of international and maritime shipping lines and transport, national security, loads of wealth below our waters and that is just the beginning.

      I mean our coast is how much we are defined as a country. Kenyan coast waters and seafront has been the scene of great battles going back to when the Portuguese built Fort Jesus in the 15th century.

      Then Arab trading and colonial communities came in at the coast of Mombasa. Fort Jesus was one of the key zones of the cultural battles of those days. Even the British Colonial power was invited to assist one group or the other.

      Once you visit today, Fort Jesus is surrounded by luxury villas all round and some real fancy sea resorts in front, not to forget the Mombasa Old City that awaits you as you walk out.

      But in there is different.

      The fort has so many defensive positions overlooking the sea and a whole bunch of them were destroyed by enemy forces. But they still hold pretty good.

      Inside the educational halls and exhibitions at Fort Jesus is everything in the diverse history of this great Kenyan Coastal City of Mombasa.

      This is a huge part of the Kenyan coastal life and humanity. This is Kenya in its totality.

      Anybody putting our seafront on the line, is making a declaration of war and everybody who knows me including my countless friends from the Somali communities here and elsewhere know how much I hate even the word war.

      It is not going to happen. That is what my conscience tells me. I trust that guy.

      I am stunned Uhuru and his new friend Raila have not figured out that with the diplomatic and military advantage they have, this is a Knockout punch straight to Somalia. Should have been done months ago.

      Kenya has the US and the EU on their side on the conflict in Somalia right now. That is why Kenya is stuck in Somalia fighting Al Shabab to defend this so called Somali government.

      Uhuru has to get straight on this. Forget the legal runaround. Get a mutual settlement with Somalia or just take the waters with arms if necessary and talk to the international community.

      Good is good. But when bad comes, you have to be badder. That is what I have learnt in politics arguing sometimes with my parents and sisters who didn’t want me to get in real trouble and the enemies of the nation who were putting me in a whole lot of trouble.

      It is called the balancing act. It is not a bad thing. But sometimes you have to make the call and the risks. Sometimes it is the only thing you can and must do. Fair enough. Do it. Please.

      Like

        • Admin,

          Yes it was quite a trip. Beautiful and quite informative as well as scary.

          What crossed my mind going through all that and seeing the stuff we have here on DC is that we have a library of immense publications in space in something called the internet.

          There is probably tens of thousands of very original thinking and work we have in these websites. What happens if the websites disappear.

          I lost DC for a few hours last night and I was saying what if the guy who runs DC just decides to shut it down. I would be lost.

          The bottom line is that we need to figure out how to help run these websites. We also need to have a systematic way of collecting that information and compiling them in hard copies.

          People still read the bible because somebody wrote it down, myths and all. Otherwise it would be a piece of forgotten mystery.

          I worry about a website like Jukwaa now that OO is not with us anymore. The amount of material in there is awesome. We would lose a big chunk of Kenya’ history as a nation if we lose all that.

          How do we make sure that never happens?

          Like

        • Admin,

          Can you look at the piece on Eliud Kipchoge on DC.

          I have been joking with my son that I want him to nominate it the nobel price for literature. He just laughs.

          But check it and may be put up in Jukwaa if you fix the pictures.

          We are taking a very big event and making it very simple and then super big.

          Take care.

          Like

        • Yes Admin,

          That is beautiful and sometimes scary trip down memory lane with many of us here at Jukwaa then.

          We were looking at Somalia just when the Kenyan government sent troops there. We wanted to know what was going on.

          Great debate in Jukwaa at the time.

          But you know what really scared me looking at all this?

          I realized we have this enormous library in space with the help of the internet of course.

          You look at the stuff we have in Jukwaa and now here in DC it is frightening amount of excellent original thinking and work.

          We could publish more than a hundred books out of that.

          We are talking about tens of thousands of pages of amazing material, thoughts, pictures, videos, cartoons and everything else in the thinking world and political changes in our universe.

          What happens if all this material disappears when our websites like DC and Jukwaa collapse?

          That whole library and bookshop we have will disappear in a moment.

          That is a terrifying thought.

          We have to figure out how to collectively support these websites and how to preserve the tons of information and perspectives in there.

          We also have to figure out how to compile the information and the subsidiary data in hard copy.

          Nobody would read the bible today if it was not written down, myths and all. May be god put it all down as some say. Who knows.

          So we have our work cut out for us. But we are not god by a large amount.

          We have to put our history together and fight for the next steps we must make as a country.

          We are going to do it. No doubt.

          Like

        • Adongo

          Will address two of the issues you raise here for now.

          First is the issue of maintaining an archive or history of the various discussions held on these forums

          We currently have access to this forum, Jukwaa and previously Kumekucha. Some of you had participated in other forums

          Back in 2006 I had actually compiled all the discussions from these forums with an aim to provide the best organized political party with a comprehensive in depth analytical view of the desires of Kenyans.

          So its not a complicated thing to do, but its worthless when you look at the (mis)leadership we have and even worse, the electorate that continues to elevate charlatans to positions of authority.

          So in one paragraph I can tell you that I had done this in the past, and can easily do that for maybe one or two maybe 3 of these forums, there are many modern tools that make this a fairly easy task, but its an exercise that I think is futile, and worthless but I could be wrong, would need some convincing for me to try and do that again.

          The second issue you raised was one of continuity of these forums

          I would definitely hope that we can have an easy and well planned out provision for continuity, i.e in the event an Admin is unavailable, another admin can take over,

          Kindly make it a point to check your emails which you never respond to, on how we can make this work.

          There are also many silent observers on these forums that would make excellent admins but there is no telling because like yourself they do not respond to emails either, so we have to make the conclusion that once an admin exits these forums, the forum must then come to its end. We are fortunate that we are able to continue Jukwaa through private requests made via email to members among themselves which worked., but we do need to step up communication and spread our wings much farther if we are to make this work over an extended period.

          Thanks for your continued participation and contribution which are always very insightful and thought provoking. I always hope we can get back the old members we had to contribute more and come out of the wood work and their cocoons or hiding nests so to speak.

          Kind regards my friend

          Like

        • We have a huge problem my friends. We risk losing the country. That is a risk we should never take.

          Somali is threatening to make Kenya a land locked country and destroy everything we have. It must not happen by every means necessary.

          Uhuru presented a case yesterday at the UN General Assembly in New York for a negotiated settlement on the ocean border conflict.

          Sisi the president of Egypt tried to bring Kenya and Somali together on the matter.

          Of course Sisi owes us. Without Lake Victoria there would be no River Nile. And without River Nile there would no Egypt.

          The compromise move by Uhuru and Sisi didn’t work apparently.

          https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2019-09-26-no-deal-farmaajo-maintains-icj-will-hear-maritime-case-with-kenya/

          And this.

          https://www.nation.co.ke/news/1056-5289146-rajfdl/index.html

          For the first time in my life I am saying may be the AU can solve this. Otherwise we would have to threaten Somali with some existential parameters. Things are that bad on this matter.

          Like

  3. Adongo

    This is very interesting,

    My first instinct / reaction is – follow the money. i.e Why would Somalia or whoever is chasing this be so determined to have a dysfunctional government in charge of such a large chunk of waterway?

    What comes to mind is smugglers, drug peddlers and the likes, i.e it would be easier for them to run amok in waters that cannot be policed.

    We also know that Somalia pirates have made some serious business in those waters

    But ultimately, these open spaces are patrolled by higher powers, so clearly this is much bigger as well. We know that more powerful navies have more capabilities in these oceans and spaces.

    I think we should dig deeper to find out what is actually going on

    Like

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