Mudavadi’s and KANU’s (mis-) fortunes

We have been talking in general about the different coalitions, and how they came about as well as the key players either individuals or parties.

I would however like to just narrow focus for a little bit on two entities:- Mudavadi and KANU

Before i proceed lets watch this. Also pay attention in the last minutes of the clip and see how Ngunyi in his usual eloquent self, continues to market and sell snow to guys living in Greenland. Its phenomenal

Now, from the foregoing there are several scenarios to ponder

a) Were these two entities (remember although they are in the same pit, they probably arrived there seperately) so completely desperate, that when the carrot was dangled (or was it straw), they simply had no choice and grabbed at it with both hands and feet and everything else?

If this is indeed the case, how did they arrive at the bottom of this pit? Was it by making poor decisions along the way, or was it due to some extremely clever ploy by political geniuses who thoroughly beat them into a corner

b) Or perhaps on the other hand, are these two entities, a project or projects of the oligarchy to re-invent themselves and having found that there exists a gap (ICC and / or tribal inclination) in the TNA/URP axis are exploiting it by injecting themselves into the matrix knowing very well that there are mutual benefits to be derived. They may hate each other, but without UDF, TNA is central province leaning and URP is RV leaning, making them two tribal outfits having experienced presidency, do not want to let go.

c) Was Mudavadi and/or KANU over-rated in their importance and somehow people made a mistake and invested in their fortunes only to realise too late the folly, and are now in desperate late comeback moves?

Am sure there are many other scenarios to ponder

One thing is however clear, where it is now, the engineers that designed this carriage got the design all wrong.

They each have a carriage and two heads that must be connected

Each head can only face one direction and its opposite to the other head. If you put the two heads next to each other, they head butt each other and leave the carriage intact or cannot see each other and one gets played. if on opposite sides of the carriage, they pull in different directions.

The carriage here is their supporters and the two heads are (for presidency) uhuru and mudavadi, and (for the political parties) URP and KANU in rift valley

What a quandary, what a nightmare.

As the events unfold, and as supporters of the coalition come to terms with what they are faced with, we shall in due course determine whether this was a brilliant work of a scheming strategist, or simply the blunder of the century.

Stay tuned

Anxiety as ODM Prepares to Announce Pre-Election Alliance Partners

A short while ago, SC James Orengo, a close confidant of Prime Minister Raila Odinga moved to publish a facebook update on his page that was clearly aimed at calming the nerves of party supporters who are getting apprehensive at the lack of an alliance building on the ODM side.

 

The PM’s office had earlier in the day released a weekend campaign program that takes him to Western, Coast and possibly Uganda to receive an award, and despite the widely reported sealing of URP/TNA deal, the cool manner in which the PM is going about his business did not calm ODMers and have got keen political observers trying to figure out what the ODM will pull out next.

With TNA and URP having sealed a deal that is set for public unveiling this weekend in Nakuru, ODM supporters have been shifting uneasily on their seats especially after some civil society activists this morning unexpectedly withdrew a suit from court challenging the eligibility of Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto to run for elections.

During the history of multiparty politics in Kenya no other politician has aligned himself with other parties and individuals for purposes of advancing a political cause as ODM Party Leader Raila Odinga and it would be a surprise if the deadline for submission of pre-election alliance agreements passes with ODM going into the general elections as a single party.

There has been discussions going on between ODM and WDP, and the Standard reported yesterday that ODM’s priority was to bring UDF and WDP onboard as the ultimate weapon of neutralising the GEMA and KAMATUSA alliance that Uhuru and Ruto have been working to mobilise for well over three years now. Both WDP Party Leader Kalonzo Musyoka and UDF Presidential Candidate Musalia Mudavadi insisting that they both must be on the presidential ballot paper. What viable options remain for ODM if not these two?

This question will be answered in the next few days when the it is expected Raila Odinga will pull a huge surprise and unveil an alliance that will form one part of the two horse race he has consistently pointed out to voters. The ODM plans a historic National Delegates Convention on 7th December 2012 where the presidential nomination will dominate the agenda of the day.

It is a poorly kept secret in political circles but the ODM running mate ticket now appears the most attractive prospect for a majority of the candidates who were previously either going it alone or were inclined towards the Uhuru Ruto axis. ODM has remained the most popular party for the last 5 years as has its party leader in all presidential opinion polls.

The grapevine is saying a deal with ODM partner parties was sealed a while ago and an announcement was strategically held back so that the TNA/URP declaration does not pull the rug under ODM and alliance partners.